Re: Trail Blazers Draft Central
From Chad Ford
OAKLAND AND LOS ANGELES -- Over the weekend I made visits to three gyms to watch workouts -- one in Santa Monica, another in Reseda and a third in Oakland on Saturday.
The three workouts were all different. Over 80 general managers and NBA scouts attended a group workout for the Wasserman group on Friday morning. The workout was headlined by Terrence Jones, Fab Melo and Tony Wroten Jr. The workout was drill-oriented and didn't involve any actual competition.
On Friday afternoon I was in the 360 gym to watch trainer Joe Abunassar workout his clients -- Terrence Ross, Arnett Moultrie, Jet Chang and Terrell Stoglin. After the workout, I was able to see the top prospects compete in some competitive four-on-four action alongside and against NBA players Austin Daye and Rasual Butler.
On Saturday, Aaron Goodwin invited me to Oakland to watch a grueling private workout for Damian Lillard.
Here's what I learned:
• If the draft plays out the way we expect it to -- nine of the top 10 players in the draft will come from five of the biggest programs in college basketball -- Kentucky, UConn, North Carolina, Kansas and Baylor.
The tenth will be from lowly Weber State. The Big Sky school is located 30 minutes north of Salt Lake City and isn't known for producing draft picks (its best player was Willard Sojourner, a second-round pick of the Chicago Bulls in 1971) -- let alone lottery picks. So pardon Lillard if he thinks that his sudden thrust into the limelight is a bit surreal.
Yes, he was the second best scorer in college basketball this year at 24.5 ppg. Yes, he ranked with the lowest turnovers per possession (1 turnover every 8.9 possesion) for any point guard in the country. Yes, he ranked No. 2 in John Hollinger's college PER at 33.58 behind only Anthony Davis. And yes, that efficiency ranking was especially impressive because Lillard used 25 percent of his team's possessions while Davis used just 15 percent.
Nevertheless, juniors from Weber State who were lightly recruited out of high school and missed almost their entire sophomore season with an injury aren't supposed to be lottery picks.
"I was surprised," Lillard said when I asked him how he reacted when we pegged him as a lottery pick in Feb. 21. "I was hearing second round. Maybe late first round. When you come from a school like Weber State, that's the most you can hope for. But lottery? Don't get me wrong, I think I belong. I just didn't think anyone else did."
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AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Lillard owns a solid jump shot and showed that again during workouts.
Three months later, virtually everyone else does. The majority of scouts and GMs I spoke with this week had Lillard in the lottery. Many in the top 10. Most believe he'll be the first point guard taken on draft night. Once they see him in workouts, the few teams that are holding out are likely to come into the fold.
Lillard put on one of the most impressive workouts I've seen in a while. The grueling hour-and-a-half session had Lillard going full speed for the entire workout. He ran the length of the floor repeatedly, shuffled side to side with medicine balls, shot jumpers with a huge tether around his waist and as the sweat poured down his face he just kept hitting shot after shot after shot.
Right now there are very few holes in Lillard's game. He's got a terrific jump shot with excellent range. While some scouts have questioned just how athletic he is, his agent, Aaron Goodwin, told me that he's consistently measuring out with a 40-inch vertical. On Saturday he was still exploding off the floor for emphatic dunks even at the end of the workout. Lillard is quick with the ball and has a tight handle. While we didn't get to see this in the workout, he's a willing passer who is comfortable finding the open man.
Above it all, everyone who knows him says that the most impressive thing about Lillard is his work ethic. He is constantly trying to improve his game, and it's hard to get him out of the gym. He looked like he was incredible shape and has clearly been putting the work to make sure teams know how good is.
It's tough to blame him.
Lillard was a late bloomer who didn't get much attention from scouting services or high major recruiters (he was ranked as the No. 48 best point guard in his class by ESPNU). He played AAU ball for the Oakland Rebels, not the elite Oakland Soliders club. When Weber State came calling, Lillard was happy they called. After a terrific senior year in high school, a few major programs started to get interested, but Lillard felt like Weber State would be a better fit.
"I didn't want to be someone's backup plan," Lillard said. "I wanted to go to a team that wanted me to play an important role. I felt like Weber State would give me the chance to start over and become who I believed I could become. It was a great decision."
Lillard came in and was an instant impact player for the Wildcats. He averaged 11.5 ppg as a freshman and earned Big Sky freshman of the Year honors. As a sophomore, he averaged 19.9 ppg, shot 43 percent from the field and 39 percent from three -- earning his first team, all-Big Sky honors and getting him an honorable mention on the AP All-American team. As a junior, he broke his foot 10 games into the season and was given a medical redshirt by the NCAA.
Lillard spent the time off lifting weights and watching game film. He watched all 71 games the Wildcats had played and returned with both a stronger body and a higher basketball IQ.
Lillard was special as a junior and by mid-season a number of scouts were predicting he could be the top point guard off the board on draft night. Lillard is now in competition with North Carolina's Kendall Marshall and Syracuse's Dion Waiters to be the first point guard off the board.
With several teams including the Blazers, Raptors, Hornets and Suns (and possibly the Jazz if the Warriors fall to 8th in the lottery) on the prowl for a point guard, he could go as high as No. 6 and it's likely that he doesn't slip past 13 on draft night.
• The other player that really wowed me this weekend was Washington's Terrence Ross. Ross, like Lillard, is going to be impressive in workouts. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he worked out better than all of his competition at the two guard spot.
Why?
Video: Terrence Ross
Chad Ford says Washington's Terrence Ross was impressive during workouts and could get the edge over other shooting guards like Dion Waiters, Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb. Watch here.
Ross, Dion Waiters, Jeremy Lamb and Austin Rivers are all in a bit of scrum right now and in a number of instances, will work out directly against each other for teams in June.
Ross has several advantages that should pop in workouts. First, he's the tallest of any of the shooting guards (he's measuring 6-foot-6 in socks, 6-foot-7 in shoes). He's also the most athletic. Ross is an explosive leaper, a blur up and down the court and has great lateral quickness. He's also the best shooter of the group. Not only did Ross shoot the highest percentage from three of any of the four players mentioned, he rarely missed anything in his workouts at 360. He's got a quick release and deep range. For a team looking for a pure shooter, he's by far the best choice in the lottery.
Ross also looked terrific in four-on-four play. His team was matched against Daye and Butler and Ross more than looked like he belonged playing against and, later, with them. He was much more aggressive than what we saw at Washington, and hit a number of impressive threes and had several highlight reel dunks in the course of the game. Had Ross played with a more conventional point guard this year (one that didn't dominate the ball as much as Tony Wroten did) he could've put up much bigger numbers at Washington this season.
Waiters and Rivers are more aggressive scorers than Ross. Lamb is longer and may be the best defender of the group. It's clear that Ross needs to get stronger and work on his in between game. But for a team looking for size, athleticism and shooting at the two guard position, he could be the guy. I think his range, like Waiters, Lillard and Lamb, is probably in the No. 6 to No. 13 range.
Impressing bigs
• I was also impressed with Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie. Two things immediately stand out about Moultrie.
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AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Moultrie is one big man whose status could see some significant draft day helium.
First, he's an explosive leaper. He gets off the floor as fast as any big man I've seen this year and during several drills was getting his head above the rim. One of the things that Moultrie possesses that's important in the NBA is "second jump ability." He doesn't need any headway to leap that high and after coming down he can spring right back up again.
Second, I think he's much more skilled as a perimeter player than he showed this year at Mississippi State. He has a very nice touch on his jump shot out to 18 feet or so and has range all the way to the 3-point line. Though he showed more of this ability when he was at UTEP, it's still there.
Factor in he is 6-foot-11 and was the SEC's leading rebounder this year (no, it wasn't Davis) and those are four pretty strong factors in Moultrie's favor.
Moultrie needs to get stronger, improve his defense (he should be blocking many more shots than he did last year for Mississippi State) and his post play. But there is a lot there to work with for a team that needs an athletic big. I think he could be one of those players that rises dramatically as we get closer to the draft. Athletic bigs almost always do, and Moultrie isn't nearly as big of a project as most big men that get taken that high. I could see him going anywhere from No. 9 to No. 20 on draft night.
• Syracuse center Fab Melo was the most impressive player I saw during the Wasserman workout in the morning. He has clearly slimmed down and was moving much better than I've ever seen him at Syracuse.
He shows a solid touch around the basket and he can hit the 18-footer pretty regularly as well. He's going to be a big time project for whoever takes him on and there will always be concerns about his dedication and motivation. But given his size and athletic ability, he might be worth the risk somewhere in the No. 15 to No. 25 range.
• Because of a scheduling conflict, I only got to see the first 15 minutes of Jones' and Wroten's workout.
What I saw consisted mostly of some shooting and ball-handling drills. Jones looked good in that setting, Wroten struggled.
I spoke with a number of scouts who stayed for the whole thing and they were generally impressed with Jones (though Jones has an uncanny ability to turn off some with his body language). He looked like he was in good shape, is a very good athlete for his size and has that terrific length. He also shot the ball well. Scouts continue to raise questions about what position he'll play in the pros, but overall people were generally favorable about his workout.
I think Jones will be one of the most difficult players to peg in a mock draft. Some teams feel like he's a for sure top-10 pick. Others have him just outside the lottery.
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Steven Bisig/US Presswire
Tony Wroten struggled during his workout, which could affect his draft status.
I wish I could say the same thing about Wroten. He has enormous potential. I think he could be one of the top five players in this draft based on pure talent. He's got uncanny floor vision, has great size for his position, is a terrific athlete and can be a lock down defender when he wants to. Scouts that love him see some Gary Payton and some Rajon Rondo in him.
However, he struggles as a shooter and the workout I saw only highlighted those struggles. In the first 15 minutes he missed a lot of shots and scouts tell me it didn't get much better as the workout went on. Teams also questioned whether he can really run a NBA team given his penchant toward dominating the ball. The talent is there, but is the desire?
I don't know the answer other than to say that scouts said virtually identical things about Rondo leading up to the 2006 draft. Rondo's shot was broken, he struggled to get along with his head coach, teams had major issues about his ability to be a leader on the floor and Rondo (who was ranked No. 6 on our Big Board) slipped all the way to No. 21 on draft night.
Watching Rondo on Saturday during Game 7, you can see that scouts were right about some of his issues. He's still not a great shooter and at times takes himself out of the offense because he's afraid to shoot it. He can still be wild and turnover prone. His struggles in the locker room with Doc Rivers have been well-documented. But he's also able to completely take over a game on both ends of the floor. His strengths ultimately outweigh his weaknesses.
If Wroten is going to succeed, he's going to have to model his game after Rondo's. He'll have to work on his jumper to the point that it's a potential weapon when it needs to be. He'll have to think pass first, focus on defense and only take over the game offensively when his team needs him, too. He got away from all of that as a freshman and it caused him and Washington problems all year.
• Kentucky's Doron Lamb had a solid workout as well. But, seeing him a day after watching John Jenkins, I think Jenkins might edge ahead of Lamb in workouts. Both are terrific shooters, but Jenkins brought a lot more intensity to the workout.
• I thought Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor shot the ball and played really well in his workout on Friday.
• Maryland's Terrell Stoglin can really score the basketball. For a team looking for some instant offense off the bench, he should probably be in the conversation in the second round.
• BYU-Hawaii's Jet Chang played well in the four-on-four play with Ross, Moultrie, Daye, Stoglin and Butler. He got to the basket, hit some big shots and played tough defense on Ross on several occasions. A number of teams are bringing him in for workouts over the next few weeks. He's got an outside chance of making the second round.
