Blazers: Five Players over 20 PER

[e_blazer]

Okay, so Leonard is a statistical anomaly, but Lillard, Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman are all legitimate 20+ PER players right now. Any other team have anywhere near that number?

 

[magnifier661]

Okay, so Leonard is a statistical anomaly, but Lillard, Aldridge, Lopez and Kaman are all legitimate 20+ PER players right now. Any other team have anywhere near that number?

I don't think any team in the history of the game has had that. Can they keep it up? I think so

 

[DaLincolnJones]

I don't think any team in the history of the game has had that. Can they keep it up? I think so

Mags, my Brother..dont bet on that...

 

[magnifier661]

Mags, my Brother..dont bet on that...

No think about it. Centers can have high PERs because most their shots are either put backs or high% shots. And there have been many +20, but averaging 20 minute players.

We all know Aldridge will be a +20 per player, and I would guess Lillard has made the turn to a +20 player as well.

 

[Eastoff]

The spurs last year were close.
Timmy had 21.3
Tony had 18.9
Kawhi had 19.4
Manu had 20.0
Patty had 18.7

 

[magnifier661]

The spurs last year were close.
Timmy had 21.3
Tony had 18.9
Kawhi had 19.4
Manu had 20.0
Patty had 18.7

Damn no wonder they steam rolled everyone in the playoffs

 

[illmatic99]

OK I looked through like 10 other teams that seem like they could possibly have this same phenomenon, and none of them are close. Wonder how long we can sustain it... I expect Rolo and Kaman to drop a bit, but Wes is right there at 18.7, and Nic is under-producing at 13.3. We might get close to having (at least) five by the end of the year.

Sick find.

 

[B-Roy]

Bulls are close:

Gasol 22.7
Butler 21.6
Rose 21.1
Gibson 19.8
Brooks 19.5

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Well, after nine games we've played Denver twice... we won't play them 16 more times so I expect we're at a bit of an anomalous high...

...however, will we play 16 games against teams as bad as Denver? Let's see.

Minny (x4), Philly (x2), Lakers (x3? 4?), Denver (once or twice more)... who else would be on that list?

 

[magnifier661]

Well, after nine games we've played Denver twice... we won't play them 16 more times so I expect we're at a bit of an anomalous high...

...however, will we play 16 games against teams as bad as Denver? Let's see.

Minny (x4), Philly (x2), Lakers (x3? 4?), Denver (once or twice more)... who else would be on that list?

Golden state and Houston are trash

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Golden state and Houston are trash

no, let's talk teams that actually have bad records, plz.

 

[magnifier661]

no, let's talk teams that actually have bad records, plz.

I'm just filling in for Kingspeed. He hasn't partake in this thread yet.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I'm just filling in for Kingspeed. He hasn't partake in this thread yet.

AWESOME.

 

[H.C.]

Well, after nine games we've played Denver twice... we won't play them 16 more times so I expect we're at a bit of an anomalous high...

...however, will we play 16 games against teams as bad as Denver? Let's see.

Minny (x4), Philly (x2), Lakers (x3? 4?), Denver (once or twice more)... who else would be on that list?

HA.

uhhm.. Orlando/Milwaukie/Knicks/Utah/Detriot All will be lotto teams with piss poor records this year.

But yes Pretty sure the Blazers would need to play Denver at least 16 more times to maintain that 20 per

 

[BlazerCaravan]

HA.

uhhm.. Orlando/Milwaukie/Knicks/Utah/Detriot All will be lotto teams with piss poor records this year.

But yes Pretty sure the Blazers would need to play Denver at least 16 more times to maintain that 20 per

I'm pretty serious, actually, now that I think more on it. In our nine games, we've had four games against good teams (OKC with RW, Sacto, Dallas, Cleveland), two against really good teams (LAC, GSW), and three against bad teams (DEN, CHA, DEN). That's a pretty representative mix of team levels to extrapolate from. We'll likely have 32 more games against good teams, 16 against great teams, and 24 against bad teams.

That all said, we're on pace for 54 wins (right at my estimate ) which will be good enough to win the Northwest. I like the defensive effort, which seems legitimate. I love the offense, which also seems legit. Dame is a FUCKING BEAST.

I'll try to write something more substantial up this weekend.

 

[Stevenson]

Can someone explain to me how PER works?

Thank you.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Can someone explain to me how PER works?

Thank you.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

 

[H.C.]

I'm pretty serious, actually, now that I think more on it. In our nine games, we've had four games against good teams (OKC with RW, Sacto, Dallas, Cleveland), two against really good teams (LAC, GSW), and three against bad teams (DEN, CHA, DEN). That's a pretty representative mix of team levels to extrapolate from. We'll likely have 32 more games against good teams, 16 against great teams, and 24 against bad teams.

That all said, we're on pace for 54 wins (right at my estimate ) which will be good enough to win the Northwest. I like the defensive effort, which seems legitimate. I love the offense, which also seems legit. Dame is a FUCKING BEAST.

I'll try to write something more substantial up this weekend.

I'm not sure if some of those teams listed are good/bad.. I mean the Blazers did lose to the 6ers last year.
I just don't think we'll keep that 20 per throughout the season was laughing at your post when you said we'd need to play Denver 16 more times to keep that

54 wins will easily win the northwest division. OKC doesn't get above 48 this year at best.

 

[magnifier661]

I'm not sure if some of those teams listed are good/bad.. I mean the Blazers did lose to the 6ers last year.
I just don't think we'll keep that 20 per throughout the season was laughing at your post when you said we'd need to play Denver 16 more times to keep that

54 wins will easily win the northwest division. OKC doesn't get above 48 this year at best.

That's when our team had shitty defense and bench. I doubt we have many games like that from last season

 

[H.C.]

That's when our team had shitty defense and bench. I doubt we have many games like that from last season

That wasn't just the benches fault though.
A few games before the Blazers beat the 76ers by dropping twenty-one threes or something on the 76ers.
The entire team took them lightly.
Guess the Sixers game wasn't a blow out like I thought I remembered.
But the Starters did give up 32 points and only scored 19 in the first quarter.

Just like the Blazers took the bobcats(or not the hornets) lightly last year after dropping twenty-one threes on them as well. Then got blown out next game.
blazers 22 bobcats 33 after 1 quarter.
blazers 46 bobcats 69 after 2 quarters. No Aldridge but that's not entirely on the bench Sir.

 

[magnifier661]

That wasn't just the benches fault though.
A few games before the Blazers beat the 76ers by dropping twenty-one threes or something on the 76ers.
The entire team took them lightly.
Guess the Sixers game wasn't a blow out like I thought I remembered.
But the Starters did give up 32 points and only scored 19 in the first quarter.

Just like the Blazers took the bobcats(or not the hornets) lightly last year after dropping twenty-one threes on them as well. Then got blown out next game.
blazers 22 bobcats 33 after 1 quarter.
blazers 46 bobcats 69 after 2 quarters. No Aldridge but that's not entirely on the bench Sir.

What I'm trying to explain is our team played less complete games last season. They had more opportunity to have let down games because their defense and bench was worse than this season.

With a good bench and defense, your starter offense could be failing, but you can still win with your bench. Or the shot doesn't fall for stretches and your defense can keep them dry until your shot comes back.

That wasn't the case last season.

 

[Hobbesarable]

What I'm trying to explain is our team played less complete games last season. They had more opportunity to have let down games because their defense and bench was worse than this season.

With a good bench and defense, your starter offense could be failing, but you can still win with your bench. Or the shot doesn't fall for stretches and your defense can keep them dry until your shot comes back.

That wasn't the case last season.

It's good we are getting a chance to develop the bench this early into the season and win even if it's due to illness/injury rather than coaching tactics.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Can someone explain to me how PER works?

Thank you.

its really simple

uPER = (1 / MP) *
[ 3P
+ (2/3) * AST
+ (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG
+ (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))
- VOP * TOV
- VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG)
- VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT)
+ VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB)
+ VOP * DRB% * ORB
+ VOP * STL
+ VOP * DRB% * BLK
- PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP) ]

 

[magnifier661]

its really simple

uPER = (1 / MP) *
[ 3P
+ (2/3) * AST
+ (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG
+ (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG)))
- VOP * TOV
- VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG)
- VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT)
+ VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB)
+ VOP * DRB% * ORB
+ VOP * STL
+ VOP * DRB% * BLK
- PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP) ]

Lol

 

[magnifier661]

It's good we are getting a chance to develop the bench this early into the season and win even if it's due to illness/injury rather than coaching tactics.

I would much rather Stott's model from Pops than Carlisle! This season is so reminiscent of how Pops coaches. I'm starting to get really excited now!

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Bulls are close:

Gasol 22.7
Butler 21.6
Rose 21.1
Gibson 19.8
Brooks 19.5

How the fuck are Rose and Butler both over 20?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I would much rather Stott's model from Pops than Carlisle! This season is so reminiscent of how Pops coaches. I'm starting to get really excited now!

I like the way he coaches, I don't see Pop though. Or Carlisle for that matter. I see a little Jerry Sloan.

 

[KingSpeed]

I'm pretty serious, actually, now that I think more on it. In our nine games, we've had four games against good teams (OKC with RW, Sacto, Dallas, Cleveland), two against really good teams (LAC, GSW), and three against bad teams (DEN, CHA, DEN). That's a pretty representative mix of team levels to extrapolate from. We'll likely have 32 more games against good teams, 16 against great teams, and 24 against bad teams.

That all said, we're on pace for 54 wins (right at my estimate ) which will be good enough to win the Northwest. I like the defensive effort, which seems legitimate. I love the offense, which also seems legit. Dame is a FUCKING BEAST.

I'll try to write something more substantial up this weekend.

So the Kings ARE for real?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So the Kings ARE for real?

In that they are not imaginary? Yes.