Blazers last in the league in defense

[bobf]

Nurk is much better than Kanter, no shit. But something people don't mention with Nurk coming back is that even though the defense is much better with Nurk on the floor, having Nurk start actually increases the minutes for the Melo/Kanter vortex. I suspect that actually negates some of the overall defensive improvement. Stotts actually (properly) went away from it last game in the 3rd/4th (after the absolute debacle that was the first half defense), choosing to playing Melo/Covington at center and reducing Kanter's minutes overall. I think that was smart, even though I think it's the wrong player of the Dynamic Defense Duo whose minutes got cut, and our rebounding also suffers significantly in that scenario. But what can you do?

What can can do? Play our good defenders.

Nurk, RoCo, DJJ, Powell, Little
Dame, CJ, Kanter
Ant, Melo

5 of the top 8 are good defenders. 3 on the floor at all times. Top 8 could account for all your minutes easily without overplaying CJ or Dame. Average defense or better once they gel. Top 8 should be the starting point. Injuries happen etc. so Ant will get minutes. Melo should be a 10th man at most.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Dead last in defense, any team can do that.

Dead last in defense AND assists, only Blazer fans have the stamina to endure that!

HEY! Dead last in defense and assists AND SOMEHOW A WINNING RECORD! Now THAT'S something not any team can do.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What can can do? Play our good defenders.

Nurk, RoCo, DJJ, Powell, Little

Neither Jones nor Powell have even average defensive stats. They both have good REPUTATIONS, but it doesn't seem to translate.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

It is depressing to read those team defense stats. Makes the idea of getting out of the first round seem pretty far fetched.

One can always wish for the opposing team to suffer horrific injuries.

 

[bobf]

Neither Jones nor Powell have even average defensive stats. They both have good REPUTATIONS, but it doesn't seem to translate.

They might not be as good as their rep but pretty sure DJ is way better defender than Melo and Powell is a way better player than Melo and better defender than CJ or Dame.

But I don’t think there are stats that at all reliably measure defense. Defensive rebounds, steals, blocked shots, maybe personal fouls. A poor defender can gamble and up their steals and blocked shots. A sound defender can opt to stay in position instead of going for steals or blocks. Trying for blocked shots can lead to fouling the jump shooter (RoCo last game) which is one of the worst things you can do. A good aggressive defender might pick up more fouls than a poor defender. Of course you can have high steals and blocked shots and be a fantastic defender too. My point is a box score can’t really tell you who is a good defender.

Maybe you are referring to other stats. RPM or on/off numbers.

 

[kjironman1]

They might not be as good as their rep but pretty sure DJ is way better defender than Melo and Powell is a way better player than Melo and better defender than CJ or Dame.

But I don’t think there are stats that at all reliably measure defense. Defensive rebounds, steals, blocked shots, maybe personal fouls. A poor defender can gamble and up their steals and blocked shots. A sound defender can opt to stay in position instead of going for steals or blocks. Trying for blocked shots can lead to fouling the jump shooter (RoCo last game) which is one of the worst things you can do. A good aggressive defender might pick up more fouls than a poor defender. Of course you can have high steals and blocked shots and be a fantastic defender too. My point is a box score can’t really tell you who is a good defender.

Maybe you are referring to other stats. RPM or on/off numbers.

Probably one of the best comments i have read about defensive stats in quite a while.
Defense is much more team oriented. A good defender can look really bad on a team that doesn't play together on defense. We are witnessing what the Blazers can do at times when they lock in on defense. Some of the best defensive possessions we have seen in a very long time have come from this 29th ranked team. They are coming at crucial times as well.

 

[HailBlazers]

Probably one of the best comments i have read about defensive stats in quite a while.
Defense is much more team oriented. A good defender can look really bad on a team that doesn't play together on defense. We are witnessing what the Blazers can do at times when they lock in on defense. Some of the best defensive possessions we have seen in a very long time have come from this 29th ranked team. They are coming at crucial times as well.

Or as some would say, scheme oriented.

 

[kjironman1]

Or as some would say, scheme oriented.

Ah yes I failed to reference "Scheme".

 

[e_blazer]

I’d be curious to know how much that horrible blowout loss to the Mavericks contributed to the drop in DRtg since the All-Star break. Not curious enough to actually do the research and math, but curious.

 

[bobf]

Probably one of the best comments i have read about defensive stats in quite a while.
Defense is much more team oriented. A good defender can look really bad on a team that doesn't play together on defense. We are witnessing what the Blazers can do at times when they lock in on defense. Some of the best defensive possessions we have seen in a very long time have come from this 29th ranked team. They are coming at crucial times as well.

Thank you. Yeah I’ve definitely seen times when there’s a synergy going on between RoCo and DJ and our D actually looks lethal. Other times when the team defense is bad they have looked individually bad or helpless to stem the tide.

I’ve seen times when Kanter’s bad defense doesn’t bite us much because the team is keeping opponents from penetrating and Kanter just needs to defend a big guy and defensive rebound which he can do.

The whole is definitely more than the sum of the parts which makes basketball such a fascinating sport.

Hopefully with the addition of Nurk and Powell we can get the D clicking. I expect we will, hopefully at least to the point of having an average D.

 

[kjironman1]

I’d be curious to know how much that horrible blowout loss to the Mavericks contributed to the drop in DRtg since the All-Star break. Not curious enough to actually do the research and math, but curious.

Somebody made reference to that a day or two ago. Totally changed the metric.
Lots of averages drop the best and worst but you have to have enough to do that and get a big enough sample size. It's coming along. The eye test is telling everyone they are seeing better defense. Nurkic is a huge addition to the defense.

 

[julius]

Somebody made reference to that a day or two ago. Totally changed the metric.
Lots of averages drop the best and worst but you have to have enough to do that and get a big enough sample size. It's coming along. The eye test is telling everyone they are seeing better defense. Nurkic is a huge addition to the defense.

I think that was me.

 

[BlazerBeav]

Good:



Not Good:

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Good:

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Not Good:

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Those are great headline stats, but they don't really mean much. Actually, the fact that the best offensive and worst defensive ratings in history are this season means a ton; that NBA offenses are simply more efficient on the whole than ever. What would be a lot more valuable for comparison would be how far off from league average these best offenses or worst defenses are...although I bet that would be less clickbait-worthy.

 

[wizenheimer]

They might not be as good as their rep but pretty sure DJ is way better defender than Melo and Powell is a way better player than Melo and better defender than CJ or Dame.

But I don’t think there are stats that at all reliably measure defense. Defensive rebounds, steals, blocked shots, maybe personal fouls. A poor defender can gamble and up their steals and blocked shots. A sound defender can opt to stay in position instead of going for steals or blocks. Trying for blocked shots can lead to fouling the jump shooter (RoCo last game) which is one of the worst things you can do. A good aggressive defender might pick up more fouls than a poor defender. Of course you can have high steals and blocked shots and be a fantastic defender too. My point is a box score can’t really tell you who is a good defender.

Maybe you are referring to other stats. RPM or on/off numbers.

I think it's pretty obvious defensive stats can have a lot of noise, especially any single defensive number. They can be heavily influenced by rotations. I think you can still glean some things from the numbers though because they generally show what our eyes can see

 

[wizenheimer]

Those are great headline stats, but they don't really mean much. Actually, the fact that the best offensive and worst defensive ratings in history are this season means a ton; that NBA offenses are simply more efficient on the whole than ever. What would be a lot more valuable for comparison would be how far off from league average these best offenses or worst defenses are...although I bet that would be less clickbait-worthy.

I'm not going to do the work, but it might be instructive to have a comparison of team ratings to the median for that particular season. How far teams are above of below the median. That would normalize the gauges quite a bit

* the median this year appears to be 112.1 - Portland is 5.6 points worse than the median in 29th place

* last year, the median was 110.7. The 29th ranked team was 4.7 points worse than the median (Portland 4.1 points worse)

* 10 years ago, the median was 107.3 (I see a trend!). The 29th ranked team was 4.5 points worse than the median

(20 years ago the median was 103.7)

 

[julius]

Good:

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Not Good:

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It's weird that the blazers have among the worst defense ever, yet are battling for HCA in the west.

 

[BlazerBeav]

It's clear that the rule changes and 3-point shooting emphasis have skewed all the numbers - we just need to pull back that defensive rating a tad.

 

[boredinsalem]

I’ve seen times when Kanter’s bad defense doesn’t bite us much because the team is keeping opponents from penetrating and Kanter just needs to defend a big guy and defensive rebound which he can do.

This. Melo and Kanter are valuable and have a place in the league, so long as their deficiencies can be mitigated with scheme. Kanter shouldn't play unless the defensive scheme prevents penetration (e.g., No Melo or Ant and only one of Dame or CJ). Melo shouldn't play unless the defensive scheme funnels penetration to a post presence (Nurk) or switches constantly (stints with Roco, Nas, and Jones).

I think we actually have a lot of versatility if Terry would commit to those rules (and injuries allow it).

Closers: Dame/CJ/(Powell, Jones, or Melo)/Covington/Nurk
Kanter: Dame or CJ/Powell/Little or Jones/Covington/Kanter
Small-ball/switching: Dame or CJ/Powell or Jones/Little or Jones/Covington/Melo
Melo: Dame or CJ/Powell/Jones/Melo/Nurkic

 

[B-Roy]

It's clear that the rule changes and 3-point shooting emphasis have skewed all the numbers - we just need to pull back that defensive rating a tad.

You can take that context into account when comparing them to league history, but you can also compare them to the league average this season.

 

[wizenheimer]

It's weird that the blazers have among the worst defense ever, yet are battling for HCA in the west.

not so weird in the context of their historic offensive rating and 4th easiest schedule. That offsets the defense a bit, at least it does in the regular season

what is a bit weird is their record compared to their net rating



Portland has overachieved their expected wins (PW) by 6. Their rating says their record should be 22-24. Pretty clearly this is due to their record in close games. And the reason for that is having the best clutch player in the league this season on their side.

 

[TBpup]

HEY! Dead last in defense and assists AND SOMEHOW A WINNING RECORD! Now THAT'S something not any team can do.

It's weird that the blazers have among the worst defense ever, yet are battling for HCA in the west.

You rang?

 

[OneSport3]

It is depressing to read those team defense stats. Makes the idea of getting out of the first round seem pretty far fetched.

These defensive stats should be put on Dame’s MVP resume. The stats show exactly how amazing he has been this season. With this defense, Portland should be closer to .500 or below, not 28-18.

 

[hoopsjock]

It's clear that the rule changes and 3-point shooting emphasis have skewed all the numbers - we just need to pull back that defensive rating a tad.

IMO the style of defense Stotts coaches doesn't work as the game changes like you said. Until Stotts realizes that nothing much will change outside of players stepping up on their own.

 

[OneSport3]

IMO the style of defense Stotts coaches doesn't work as the game changes like you said. Until Stotts realizes that nothing much will change outside of players stepping up on their own.

And when players adjust on their own, he calls it “going rogue.”

 

[Natebishop3]

IMO the style of defense Stotts coaches doesn't work as the game changes like you said. Until Stotts realizes that nothing much will change outside of players stepping up on their own.

It's so bizarre that a team that shoots a ton of threes seems to not understand that the league has changed and adjusted their defense.

Like..... have you watched your own offense???

 

[hoopsjock]

It's so bizarre that a team that shoots a ton of threes seems to not understand that the league has changed and adjusted their defense.

Like..... have you watched your own offense???

This combined with how traps work against Dame but we rarely trap or pressure or show aggression on defense. Or how the defensive philosophy of dropping the big is to force mid range shots yet on offense we usually have players who shoot a ton of mid range shots (Aldridge, Melo, CJ).

It's like an NFL team playing prevent defense as their base strategy. It can work occasionally but over the course of the season it will get torched.

 

[B-Roy]

It's so bizarre that a team that shoots a ton of threes seems to not understand that the league has changed and adjusted their defense.

Like..... have you watched your own offense???

Think part of the reason is that he thinks the personnel does not have the capability to do it, and to an extent he is right. I remember they were very aggressive at the beginning of the season with the trapping and teams just ended up shooting a million open corner 3s and Stotts abandoned it. But it's kind of a chicken and egg situation. Part of the reason our players are bad at it is because they have never practiced this type of defense for any prolonged period, so of course the growing pains are going to look terrible. The other part is Stotts is kind of correct, expecting Kanter and Melo to go up and trap and recover is probably not very realistic. But I think there's a balance to it as well. He can try doing it more when the secondary player on the trap is a guy with length like RoCo or DJJ, or do it when we have RoCo playing center (which we often do now).

My issue with Stotts defensively, beyond just playing Kanter and Melo too many minutes, is that we play the same defense on almost every possession. Very rarely do we adjust or show teams different looks, and when we do, it's usually a 2-3 or 3-2 zone where half our players are confused whether we're in zone or we're in man. Some of that is on the players for sure, but after 9 years of this I think some of the blame has to go on Terry.

 

[Labinot41]

We have the 5th best offensiv rating in nba history

We have the 2nd worst defensive rating in NBA history

 

[kjironman1]

We have the 2nd worst defensive rating in NBA history

I wonder if they will still be there by seasons end?