'Blazers making history' ESPN insider by Kevin Pelton

[Draco]

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...ard-portland-trail-blazers-making-history-nba

Here's some highlights;

Back before the start of the 2015-16 NBA season, some four months ago, it would have been hard to imagine that a March matchup between the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers would be key to the playoff race in the Western Conference.

While nobody envisioned back then that Houston would be ninth in the West, outside the playoffs if the season ended today, Portland's relevance was even more difficult to foresee. After losing four starters from last year's team that won 51 games, the Blazers were originally given a line of 26.5 wins at the Westgate SuperBook Las Vegas -- a total they surpassed by beating the Rockets in their last game before the All-Star break.

No team in modern NBA history has rebuilt on the fly quite like Portland. How have the Blazers done it?

Portland could become the second team in the last three-plus decades to make the playoffs, have so much turnover and then return to the playoffs the following season.

The other one deserves a big asterisk. The only reason the 1985-86 Chicago Bulls returned so few starts was because their second-year shooting guard started just seven games due to a broken bone in his foot. As it turned out, that shooting guard's return was pretty important, because his name was Michael Jordan. (The Bulls also won only 30 games that season.)

The Blazers' story is a bit different.

By RPM, Portland has gotten better production from its three newcomers while paying them virtually the same amount combined as Matthews is making this season, as he struggles in Dallas less than a year removed from his Achilles' tendon surgery. The difference enabled the Blazers to take on salary at the trade deadline, acquiring a first-round pick and a second-round pick in return.

Portland's backcourt has drawn comparisons to the Golden State Warriors' duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. In one regard, the Blazers actually do the Warriors one better. Both Lillard and McCollum are pick-and-roll threats, giving Portland more perimeter balance.

According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Lillard (second) and McCollum (sixth) both rank among the league's leading scorers on pick-and-rolls. In fact, both have outscored Curry (ninth), let alone Thompson (102nd).

The conservative defense Stotts favors tends to force opponents into lower-value shots at the expense of gambling for steals. When the Blazers can also force turnovers, they thrive defensively. Over the last month, their opponents' turnover rate has gone from 28th in the league to third.

Can Portland keep it up?
The friendly schedule will soon come to an end. After hosting Houston tonight, the Blazers will leave the Rose City for a six-game road trip. Altogether, 11 of Portland's next 13 games will be on the road. And eight of those 11 games are against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. We'll know a lot more in a month about whether the Blazers are really the .500 team they've played like all season or the juggernaut they've been of late.

If Portland can survive the next month, the schedule will flip down the stretch. Seven of the team's last nine games are at home, four of those against lottery-bound opposition. And the Blazers might have a cushion to start. If they can beat the Rockets, they'll be three games up on the ninth team in the West with the head-to-head tiebreaker.

As a result, projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index give Portland a 78.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections are even rosier, showing the Blazers in the postseason 91 percent of the time.

That makes Portland heavy favorites to defy history and get back to the playoffs with nearly an entirely rebuilt starting five.

 

[Draco]

Another very interesting part of an article from before the season

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...rrated-teams-mvp-candidates-playoff-races-nba

Underrated: Portland Trail Blazers
No team has a better discrepancy between its RPM projection and its over-under line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook than the Blazers, who are projected to win approximately 13 more games than the 27.5 Vegas foresees (complete RPM projections are at the bottom of this article). Again, there's remarkable consistency in the Portland forecast across a variety of projections.

POS 2014-15 STARTER RPM 2015-16 STARTER RPM
PG Damian Lillard 4.0 Damian Lillard 4.0
SG Wesley Matthews 0.4 C.J. McCollum 2.6
SF Nicolas Batum 0.4 Al-Farouq Aminu 1.8
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 3.5 Meyers Leonard -2.1
C Robin Lopez 1.5 Mason Plumlee -1.8
6M Arron Afflalo -2.9 Ed Davis -0.2
Total 6.9 4.3

According to RPM, the difference between the key players the Blazers lost and their replacements isn't nearly as large as dire forecasts would make it out to be. Portland smartly targeted free agents Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, whose past production on a per-minute basis outstrips their modest salaries. RPM is also high on third-year shooting guard C.J. McCollum, who moves from a reserve role into the starting lineup.

Additionally, compared with most of the teams expected to post a win total in the 20s, the Blazers have a far better anchor in All-Star point guard Damian Lillard. Lillard finished 15th in #NBArank; the only other top-50 player on a team with a Westgate line below 30 wins is Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves , who is 44th in #NBArank.

 

[BBert]

Portland's backcourt has drawn comparisons to the Golden State Warriors' duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. In one regard, the Blazers actually do the Warriors one better. Both Lillard and McCollum are pick-and-roll threats, giving Portland more perimeter balance.

According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Lillard (second) and McCollum (sixth) both rank among the league's leading scorers on pick-and-rolls. In fact, both have outscored Curry (ninth), let alone Thompson (102nd).

Hah! Take that, anyone who thinks we need to trade CJ for "balance"!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I think the team is using growth hormones, just not sure of the animal.

 

[Rhal]

Fun article.

The friendly schedule will soon come to an end. After hosting Houston tonight, the Blazers will leave the Rose City for a six-game road trip. Altogether, 11 of Portland's next 13 games will be on the road. And eight of those 11 games are against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. We'll know a lot more in a month about whether the Blazers are really the .500 team they've played like all season or the juggernaut they've been of late.

If Portland can survive the next month, the schedule will flip down the stretch. Seven of the team's last nine games are at home, four of those against lottery-bound opposition. And the Blazers might have a cushion to start. If they can beat the Rockets, they'll be three games up on the ninth team in the West with the head-to-head tiebreaker.

That will be the big test for us, the difference between 9th and 8th could be as close as 1 game this year and i'd much rather make the playoffs and lose to GS then get the 14th pick in the draft.

 

[Chris Craig]

I think the team is using growth hormones, just not sure of the animal.

We are using rocket growth hormones

 

[BlazerCaravan]

We have had a friendly schedule (lots of home games, not many back-to-backs), and the ASG came at just the right time, but we've played OKC, HOU, MEM, GSW, and UTA -- all playoff teams or hopefuls in about the same boat as us -- in our "friendly" span. IMHO, the least friendly thing about the next ten games are the back-to-backs coming up.

 

[Draco]

Fun article.
That will be the big test for us, the difference between 9th and 8th could be as close as 1 game this year and i'd much rather make the playoffs and lose to GS then get the 14th pick in the draft.

Yeah. Plus losing the pick isn't very costly long term; we then would get to keep our 2017 pick in a deeper draft.

 

[jlprk]

Hah! Take that, anyone who thinks we need to trade CJ for "balance"!

The 2 quotes you give exactly oppose your conclusion. I agree with your conclusion, but would choose opposite justifications.

 

[jlprk]

Another very interesting part of an article from before the season

Those 2014-15 RPMs you quote from ESPN Insider don't come from ESPN.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2015/sort/RPM[/QUOTE]

 

[Draco]

Wow another ESPN article. We're getting noticed!

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14841512/portland-trail-blazers-new-formula-success

 

[Boob-No-More]

Hah! Take that, anyone who thinks we need to trade CJ for "balance"!

Yep, and also to all who thought the Warriors were stupid for turning down the K-Love for Klay trade for the very same reason. The NBA has changed. Guys like Curry, Lillard, Klay and C.J. are much more valuable than a power forward - even a stretch 4 like Love who can't create his own shot the way a guard with a good handle and a quick release can.

Dame and C.J. == Blazers for life. Neil, make it happen!!!

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Yep, and also to all who thought the Warriors were stupid for turning down the K-Love for Klay trade for the very same reason. The NBA has changed. Guys like Curry, Lillard, Klay and C.J. are much more valuable than a power forward - even a stretch 4 like Love who can't create his own shot the way a guard with a good handle and a quick release can.

Dame and C.J. == Blazers for life. Neil, make it happen!!!

BNM

Somewhere in a retirement home, God Shamgod and Harold Minor are cursing their bad luck, born 20 years too early to be Basketball Gods.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Somewhere in a retirement home, God Shamgod and Harold Minor are cursing their bad luck, born 20 years too early to be Basketball Gods.

Nah, neither of those guys had the range on their jumpers to be successful in today's game. I'm thinking more of guys like Pete Maravich, who had the range, but played most of his career at at time when there was no 3-point shot in the NBA.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

Nah, neither of those guys had the range on their jumpers to be successful in today's game. I'm thinking more of guys like Pete Maravich, who had the range, but played most of his career at at time when there was no 3-point shot in the NBA.

BNM

How would Kiki Vandawje(SP?) fare in todays game? I think he would be lights out even though he was a liability on D.

A couple other players that would probably thrive in todays game would be AI and Spud Webb. I think both of those guys, as good as they were, would have been thought of as even better and I think AI would have got a ring or two.

 

[santeesioux]

Wow another ESPN article. We're getting noticed!

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/14841512/portland-trail-blazers-new-formula-success

Senpai is noticing us.

 

[Draco]

Kevin Johnson would've been even better.

 

[KingSpeed]

This is for HCP and MM:

"The plan was never to tank. Damian and C.J. and three guys from ClubSport could win 20 games. There was never going to be any bottoming out; there was going to be development."

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Senpai is noticing us.

 

[John Law]

Interesting that ESPN has the Blazers winning around 41 games, which is 11 out of the final 25.