Blazers On Pace To Win 66 Games. How Many Will They Really Win?

[Public Defender]

The Blazers are 17-4 as of this afternoon. 21 games is just over 1/4 of the way through the regular season (25.6% of the way, to be exact).

If the Blazers were to win at that exact same rate, they would total 66.4 wins at the end of the season (and 15.6 losses).

At the beginning of the season, I figured the Blazers would win about 50 games, and probably sneak into the playoffs at the 8th seed, maybe the 7th.

Now? I have to revise my expectations upwards, because for the Blazers to finish with just 50 wins, it would mean managing just a 33-28 record the rest of the way (.541 winning percentage).

I think the Blazers will cool off a bit, but I think 55 wins is a realistic expectation. That'd mean going 38-23 the rest of the season - that's a .622 percentage for the rest of the season (down from the current .810), and result in a .670 percentage at season's end.

55 wins last season would've had the Blazers knocking on the door of the 4/5 seeds (the Clippers and Grizzlies were tied at 56 wins, last season, but the 6th seed Warriors had only 47 wins). I could see the Blazers vying for that last HCA slot, if they stay healthy. The NW Division title is conceivable, but I think OKC will edge out Portland and Denver.

 

[Haakzilla]

58 wins

 

[Natebishop3]

I think 4th seed, so however many wins get us the 4th seed

 

[SlyPokerDog]

78 wins.

Book it!

 

[Natebishop3]

78 wins.

Book it!

That's it... I'm banning you and Mags for continually trying to jinx us.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

That's it... I'm banning you and Mags for continually trying to jinx us.

You won't be able to ban anyone after Mediocre Man has you removed.

 

[KingSpeed]

60 if we stay healthy.

 

[Natebishop3]

You won't be able to ban anyone after Mediocre Man has you removed.

You will need an act of congress to have me removed!

 

[julius]

You will need an act of congress to have me removed!

Harry Truman said that (or something close to that) and he's buried under 500 feet of ash and rocks.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

52-55

 

[magnifier661]

We could win 55-60 games. I don't think we win any less. It would be hard to win anymore though, because the west is truly strong. If we were in the east coast, if see getting 60 wins being very easy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

48 (+/- 4)

 

[MARIS61]

Harry Truman said that (or something close to that) and he's buried under 500 feet of ash and rocks.

Which is now under a National Monument, so he was correct.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I think we'll win 59, just like 1989-90.

 

[barfo]

17.

barfo

 

[BlazerCaravan]

17.

barfo

Well, that'd break some records.

 

[magnifier661]

I think we'll win 59, just like 1989-90.

Can we reach the finals too?

 

[OneLifeToLive]

54

This is not my version of being negative. But I think they will start to come down to earth a lil bit. I've noticed somethings with this team in the last few games. Yes they beat Indiana, OKC and Utah. But body language wise I've noticed some things and also I'm not sure the chemistry is as good now as it was when they won 12 in a row. I don't notice the extra passes. I'm seeing some players ignoring each other on offense which to me is a small red flag. That and I think they need to get a lil bit better defensively to continue to play at this level. What did Dwight Jaynes say last night, they are ranked 22 or 23 in defenive efficiency? But I think what the team needs is practice time so they can tune things up again. I think that will be good for them.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

I'm in for 60 wins. No major injuries and we have to make a small trade or signing to add depth at PF or C and possibly a scorer if CJ does not make an impact.

 

[Draco]

I'd be very happy with 55. I think we can reach that or a bit more if some breaks go our way but my expectation would be less. We haven't played good teams on the road and when we do the losses will start pilling up. We are going to have an off night here or there against crap teams. We've had perfect health with all of our starters playing every game, I don't think any other team in the league has been that fortunate.

 

[magnifier661]

I'd be very happy with 55. I think we can reach that or a bit more if some breaks go our way but my expectation would be less. We haven't played good teams on the road and when we do the losses will start pilling up. We are going to have an off night here or there against crap teams. We've have had perfect health with all of our starters playing every game, I don't think any other team in the league has been that fortunate.

I think 55 was my original prediction, but I think we can win more. We have the mojo this year. That Dallas game would have been a blow out, but we almost won it. I don't think we will ever have a 4-6 moment all season. 5-5, 6-4 and 7-3, with a couple 8-10 game win streaks.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

That Dallas game would have been a blow out, but we almost won it. .

In your opinion why wasn't it a blowout?

 

[magnifier661]

In your opinion why wasn't it a blowout?

I think it was mainly do to Lopez and his teamwork and offensive boards. He gobbled a ton of offensive boards. Then I would say dame and Aldridge worked really well.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

I think it was mainly do to Lopez and his teamwork and offensive boards. He gobbled a ton of offensive boards. Then I would say dame and Aldridge worked really well.

So you're saying you think Dallas could have blown them out?

 

[THE HCP]

48 (+/- 4)

I'm with you Nik. I said 46 I think in October and refuse to deviate from my original prediction. I have too much hoop knowledge to be that wrong.

 

[MickZagger]

62.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm with you Nik. I said 46 I think in October and refuse to deviate from my original prediction. I have too much hoop knowledge to be that wrong.

I think I said something like 42 originally, but they're better than I figured they'd be early - mostly with so many new faces I assumed they'd need time to gel; how quickly that happened was a genuine surprise.

What concerns me is that there's some important guys with a history of injury shortened seasons, due to lower extremity issues (Matthews, LA, Lopez, etc.). If any of them miss "significant" time I don't think the depth is quite there to weather the storm. Who knows, maybe they'll enjoy an outlier season and no one important will miss time and they'll win 50-ish games or so?

Lotta variables to resolve between now and April.

 

[magnifier661]

62.

Reppd!