Rumor Bleacher Report (lol): OKC looking to trade Westbrook before season starts?

[Natebishop3]

Prove it!


Be that as it may, he's been "lucky" enough times to have reason to believe he's good at this shit. And more importantly, when you're in Oklahoma, the draft is the ONLY way to stockpile assets because
1. There's no fucking way you're landing a good FA in Okla-fucking-homa.
2. The only way to get somebody good in trade is if you have assets to trade, and the only way to get assets from nothing is the draft.

Olshey seems not to have realized this, given how prodigal he is with our draft picks.

Depends on how you define assets.

We got Harkless for basically nothing. We got Rolo for basically nothing. He signed Aminu and Davis for very affordable deals. There are other ways of acquiring assets. The fact is, Presti blew it on the Harden trade, big time. Looking back, I really don't think Harden/Westbrook could co-exist long term. They both need the ball. I probably would have kept Harden because I think he would have been more likely to stay. Westbrook was always gonna leave. Now they don't have Harden. They don't have Durant. And they're probably losing Westbrook.

Would Durant have left if they had traded Westbrook instead of Harden?

I just think they mishandled a lot of key decisions that ultimately led to Durant leaving and Westbrook (most likely) getting traded.

 

[Minstrel]

Be that as it may, he's been "lucky" enough times to have reason to believe he's good at this shit. And more importantly, when you're in Oklahoma, the draft is the ONLY way to stockpile assets because
1. There's no fucking way you're landing a good FA in Okla-fucking-homa.
2. The only way to get somebody good in trade is if you have assets to trade, and the only way to get assets from nothing is the draft.

Olshey seems not to have realized this, given how prodigal he is with our draft picks.

I don't have any issue with Presti trying to get a bundle of lottery picks in a Westbrook trade. I agree that draft picks are a great currency, especially for teams that aren't in free agent destinations. I just disagree that he's hit so often on draft picks that we should believe that he has a particular skill for picking winners. He did a great job in three drafts running. He's regressed to the mean in the seven drafts since then. To me, that points more to a lucky run than a consistent skill. I still think Presti is a very good GM, by and large.

 

[H.C.]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...um=referral&utm_campaign=programming-national

Howard Beck says that rival GMs have a general feeling that Westbrook will not return to OKC, and that Presti ("who is always ahead of the game on these things") is likely to trade him this offseason. Says that Boston is the most likely destination.

Would Thomas/Brown/Nets picks be a fair deal for Westbrook? Would pairing Westbrook and Horford get Boston within spitting distance of Cleveland?

Ahead of the game on these things huh.
Hilarious.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I don't have any issue with Presti trying to get a bundle of lottery picks in a Westbrook trade. I agree that draft picks are a great currency, especially for teams that aren't in free agent destinations. I just disagree that he's hit so often on draft picks that we should believe that he has a particular skill for picking winners. He did a great job in three drafts running. He's regressed to the mean in the seven drafts since then. To me, that points more to a lucky run than a consistent skill. I still think Presti is a very good GM, by and large.

Disagree on "regressed to the mean". Given how many draft picks are complete busts, Presti has done well. He took Bledsoe at 18, two picks after Luke Babbitt! He took Reggie Jackson at #24 (and we'd taken NOLAN SMITH at #21). Adams was a very good pick. Roberson was a very good pick. Find me a ballsup and I'll find a worse one in the same time frame for every other team (except maybe the Spurs).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Ahead of the game on these things huh.
Hilarious.

Okay, apart from that one time...

 

[Natebishop3]

Disagree on "regressed to the mean". Given how many draft picks are complete busts, Presti has done well. He took Bledsoe at 18, two picks after Luke Babbitt! He took Reggie Jackson at #24 (and we'd taken NOLAN SMITH at #21). Adams was a very good pick. Roberson was a very good pick. Find me a ballsup and I'll find a worse one in the same time frame for every other team (except maybe the Spurs).

Comparing him to the shitshow that was running our front office before Neil got here is pretty weak. Talk about a soft target.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I really don't think Harden/Westbrook could co-exist long term. They both need the ball. I probably would have kept Harden because I think he would have been more likely to stay. Westbrook was always gonna leave.

This is exactly what you said about Batum. I wish I had your amazing ESP about these things. Kind of amazing that Westbrook is still in OKC given that he's not on his rookie contract. Maybe you mean "eventually he'll retire and go live in LA".

Now they don't have Harden. They don't have Durant. And they're probably losing Westbrook.

Don't forget Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka. But of course Ibaka kind of proves my point: he was a mid-round pick and they netted Oladipo for him. Something for nothing!

Would Durant have left if they had traded Westbrook instead of Harden?

Would Durant have left if he hadn't've choked in the fourth quarter of game 7?

I just think they mishandled a lot of key decisions that ultimately led to Durant leaving and Westbrook (most likely) getting traded.

And yet they still have a solid team after all that. Tells you what an amazing job Presti did building it.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Olshey seems not to have realized this, given how prodigal he is with our draft picks.

Not sure I get the snipe at Neil.

Sure, Presti drafted Durant, Westbrook and Harden. He also had the benefit of having the No. 2, No. 4 and No. 3 picks in consecutive drafts.

Neil hasn't had the benefit of such high picks, but he did draft 3 of our top 4 scorers with the No. 6, No. 10 and No. 31 picks. And, unlike Presti, Neil still has all three of those guys on his team. Presti has lost two of the three (and got almost nothing of value in return) and is about to lose the third.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

Not sure I get the snipe at Neil.

Sure, Presti drafted Durant, Westbrook and Harden. He also had the benefit of having the No. 2, No. 4 and No. 3 picks in consecutive drafts.

Neil hasn't had the benefit of such high picks, but he did draft 3 of our top 4 scorers with the No. 6, No. 10 and No. 31 picks. And, unlike Presti, Neil still has all three of those guys on his team. Presti has lost two of the three (and got almost nothing of value in return) and is about to lose the third.

BNM

I took it as him trading them away for people like Afflalo

 

[Natebishop3]

This is exactly what you said about Batum. I wish I had your amazing ESP about these things. Kind of amazing that Westbrook is still in OKC given that he's not on his rookie contract. Maybe you mean "eventually he'll retire and go live in LA".



Don't forget Reggie Jackson and Serge Ibaka. But of course Ibaka kind of proves my point: he was a mid-round pick and they netted Oladipo for him. Something for nothing!



Would Durant have left if he hadn't've choked in the fourth quarter of game 7?



And yet they still have a solid team after all that. Tells you what an amazing job Presti did building it.

I guess we'll never know because Batum was traded. Darn.

Westbrook is a free agent next summer so I guess we get to find out if I'm right sooner rather than later.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I took it as him trading them away for people like Afflalo

Which, in hindsight, wasn't a great trade, but not NEARLY as bad as Presti's Harden trade.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

This is exactly what you said about Batum. I wish I had your amazing ESP about these things. Kind of amazing that Westbrook is still in OKC given that he's not on his rookie contract. Maybe you mean "eventually he'll retire and go live in LA".

Only way for Westbrook to have left prior to this point was to have taken the QO. OKC was never going to offer him anything less than a 5-year contract off of his rookie deal, and there was no way he was going to take 1-year at $6M when he was offered $79M/5.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Which, in hindsight, wasn't a great trade, but not NEARLY as bad as Presti's Harden trade.

BNM

Presti may be the most overrated GM in the league

 

[Minstrel]

Disagree on "regressed to the mean". Given how many draft picks are complete busts, Presti has done well. He took Bledsoe at 18, two picks after Luke Babbitt! He took Reggie Jackson at #24 (and we'd taken NOLAN SMITH at #21). Adams was a very good pick. Roberson was a very good pick. Find me a ballsup and I'll find a worse one in the same time frame for every other team (except maybe the Spurs).

Regressed to the mean doesn't mean he became terrible, it just means he returned to about the level you'd expect from an above average GM. I wouldn't classify Roberson as a "very good pick"--getting a defensive specialist near the end of the first round is decent value, but nothing worth remarking on. The other three were good to very good picks, but I'd say three good picks in 7 years is, at best, expected value for a good GM picking at the back half of the first round.

Once he begins picking in the top five of the draft again, I'd expect average to above average results, which isn't a top-five player per selection or even a top-five player per several selections.

 

[Tunchi]

Presti may be the most overrated GM in the league

He's definitely not overrated. He's a great GM. He didn't have to pick Westbrook, he didn't have to pick Harden either. Tyreke Evans won rookie of the year that season but Harden was still the better pick. He picked up Ibaka with the 24th pick.

What he get Reggie Jackson at? Mid 1st rounder? He has nice picks all over the place. Eric Maynor was on his way as well and balling with them but then he blew his knee up. I won't even count Durant that was a gimme we made that choice for him. He got Adams too with like the 12th pick.

So again I definitely don't think he's overrated

 

[Mediocre Man]

He's definitely not overrated. He's a great GM. He didn't have to pick Westbrook, he didn't have to pick Harden either. Tyreke Evans won rookie of the year that season but Harden was still the better pick. He picked up Ibaka with the 24th pick.

What he get Reggie Jackson at? Mid 1st rounder? He has nice picks all over the place. Eric Maynor was on his way as well and balling with them but then he blew his knee up. I won't even count Durant that was a gimme we made that choice for him. He got Adams too with like the 12th pick.

So again I definitely don't think he's overrated

His great GM status is overrated.

 

[Tunchi]

His great GM status is overrated.

Ok that's fair but he's definitely above average. I'll say a top 10 gm for sure

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Regressed to the mean doesn't mean he became terrible, it just means he returned to about the level you'd expect from an above average GM. I wouldn't classify Roberson as a "very good pick"--getting a defensive specialist near the end of the first round is decent value, but nothing worth remarking on. The other three were good to very good picks, but I'd say three good picks in 7 years is, at best, expected value for a good GM picking at the back half of the first round.

I think you're doing a lot of 'suming. Seriously compare with ANY OTHER GM (apart from the Spurs, but that always goes without saying) and you'll find Presti outperformed him (because they are all "he").

Once he begins picking in the top five of the draft again, I'd expect average to above average results, which isn't a top-five player per selection or even a top-five player per several selections.

Yeah, and I'd EXPECT Brexit to fail and a non-insane, not obviously completely unqualified blowhard to be the Republican nominee.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Only way for Westbrook to have left prior to this point was to have taken the QO. OKC was never going to offer him anything less than a 5-year contract off of his rookie deal, and there was no way he was going to take 1-year at $6M when he was offered $79M/5.

Other players have forced trades. And he could've taken the QO. And would've if he seriously wanted to leave.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Ok that's fair but he's definitely above average. I'll say a top 10 gm for sure

We'll have to just disagree

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Which, in hindsight, wasn't a great trade, but not NEARLY as bad as Presti's Harden trade.

BNM

Opinions are divided.
Remember, Harden had just had a GODAWFUL, like Harrison Barnes bad finals.

 

[Minstrel]

Yeah, and I'd EXPECT Brexit to fail and a non-insane, not obviously completely unqualified blowhard to be the Republican nominee.

Yeah, expectations don't always bear out, even if they're well-founded (leaving aside whether mine are, since we apparently disagree on that). But you're not exactly refuting my assertion that Presti's 2007-09 magic was flukish by comparing it to other relatively black swan events.

And you're right, I haven't done the research on whether Presti's haul over the past seven years is actually in line with typical expectations or not, but doing the research would be exceedingly complicated, considering every GM hasn't had the same draft capital over those seven years. It would require a pretty rigorous study of what the expected value of each selection generally nets and then coming up with the expected value of each team's draft capital over the past seven years and comparing it to the actual value of the players they drafted. All of which would require a good measure of player value.

Am I going to do that? No. If you've actually done that, I'd be both impressed and interested to see the results. But in the absence of that, yeah, I'm going "by feel" to an extent, which I recognize could be very wrong. I'm not stating my contentions as fact, just as an opinion. My opinion is that Presti's draft work over the past seven years, for where he's been drafting, hasn't been stand-out for a good GM. Whereas what he did, again for where he was drafting, from 2007-09 was historically stand-out even for a good GM.

As nik said, we'll probably have a chance to actually see. If he again starts drafting superstars at the top of the draft, I'll agree that I was wrong and he's particularly good at finding such players.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

How about this trade (which gets OKC two Oklahoma players):



Obviously Boston makes out like bandits, so they have to throw in picks to somebody.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Opinions are divided.
Remember, Harden had just had a GODAWFUL, like Harrison Barnes bad finals.

But they made the finals with him. And have not without him. Harden may not have had a good finals, but he looked great the rest of the year. OKC would have at least 1 title by now if they would not have traded him.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Opinions are divided.
Remember, Harden had just had a GODAWFUL, like Harrison Barnes bad finals.

Yeah, and the Thunder made the Finals with all their core players at 22-23 years old.

Sure, Presti's hand was forced by his tightwad owners who refused to amnesty Perkins so they could keep both Ibaka and Harden, but it was Presti that chose Ibaka over Harden. He overpaid Ibaka, because he valued him more than Harden, and then had to trade Harden, rather than pay him. Ot wasn't like Ibaka lit it up in the playooffs. In fact, he had an even worse finals than Harden

In spite of what you say about Harden's performance in the finals, he was coming off a year when his PER was 21.1 for the regular season and 20.9 in the playoffs. Not bad for a guy who was 22 and the third option on offense. In spite of coming off the bench, Harden was OKCs most efficient scorer (.660 TS%) and second on the team in both BPM and VORP.

Harrison Barnes dreams of someday being that good. Oh, and didn't Barnes just get a max, deal from DAL?

Anyway you slice it, Presti blew the Harden situation. And, he also just lost Durant for nothing. Keep singing his praises. I hope he has a long tenure in OKC. They haven't made it back to the finals since he traded Harden, they just lost Durant and are about to lose Westbrook. Like you, I'm happy with the job Presti is doing in OKC, but I'm happy for different reasons.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

How about this trade (which gets OKC two Oklahoma players):

View attachment 9570

Obviously Boston makes out like bandits, so they have to throw in picks to somebody.

I've generally felt that if the Thunder were going to trade a superstar, dealing for Griffin made the most sense, since as an Oklahoman, he has a reasonable chance of being willing to-resign.

 

[Boob-No-More]

How about this trade (which gets OKC two Oklahoma players):

View attachment 9570

Obviously Boston makes out like bandits, so they have to throw in picks to somebody.

-16 wins for OKC. Sure, pull the trigger. That makes them a fringe team, best case picking at the end of the lottery. Right where I want them.

BNM

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yeah, and the Thunder made the Finals with all their core players at 22-23 years old.

Sure, Presti's hand was forced by his tightwad owners who refused to amnesty Perkins so they could keep both Ibaka and Harden, but it was Presti that chose Ibaka over Harden. He overpaid Ibaka, because he valued him more than Harden, and then had to trade Harden, rather than pay him. Ot wasn't like Ibaka lit it up in the playooffs. In fact, he had an even worse finals than Harden

In spite of what you say about Harden's performance in the finals, he was coming off a year when his PER was 21.1 for the regular season and 20.9 in the playoffs. Not bad for a guy who was 22 and the third option on offense. In spite of coming off the bench, Harden was OKCs most efficient scorer (.660 TS%) and second on the team in both BPM and VORP.

Harrison Barnes dreams of someday being that good. Oh, and didn't Barnes just get a max, deal from DAL?

Anyway you slice it, Presti blew the Harden situation. And, he also just lost Durant for nothing. Keep singing his praises. I hope he has a long tenure in OKC. They haven't made it back to the finals since he traded Harden, they just lost Durant and are about to lose Westbrook. Like you, I'm happy with the job Presti is doing in OKC, but I'm happy for different reasons.

BNM

Are you saying you wouldn't rather have Presti than Olshey? Because if that's what you're saying, you crazy.

 

[dviss1]

And yet Minny was able to get Wiggins for Love. I still don't understand that one.

Yes you do. His name is LeBron. Who doesn't want to play with LeBron James? Kevin Love wanted and title and playing with LeBron gave him that opportunity.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

-16 wins for OKC. Sure, pull the trigger. That makes them a fringe team, best case picking at the end of the lottery. Right where I want them.

BNM

The wins total is actually a random number generator. Little known fact.