Bob and Chris, sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g

[barfo]

Anyone think that the elevation of Bob Dudley to head of BP will have an effect on the OR governors race?

My best guess is that it will make Chris a more viable candiate - although more than zero isn't a big accomplishment.

barfo

 

[crandc]

Are they related?

I'd say a connection with BP would hardly be an asset these days.

 

[tlongII]

Anyone think that the elevation of Bob Dudley to head of BP will have an effect on the OR governors race?

My best guess is that it will make Chris a more viable candiate - although more than zero isn't a big accomplishment.

barfo

If you don't think Chris Dudley is a strong candidate for governor then I think you're in for a surprise.

 

[barfo]

If you don't think Chris Dudley is a strong candidate for governor then I think you're in for a surprise.

I think he's an incredibly weak candidate in the sense of being qualified, but as far as getting elected, who knows.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

I think he's an incredibly weak candidate in the sense of being qualified, but as far as getting elected, who knows.

barfo

Qualified? How exactly do you get to be qualified to run for governor? I think the only qualification you need is a big bank account. I don't see how he could do any worse than that idiot Kitzhaber.

 

[Tortimer]

Qualified? How exactly do you get to be qualified to run for governor? I think the only qualification you need is a big bank account. I don't see how he could do any worse than that idiot Kitzhaber.

I agree we already had Kitzhaber once and I really don't want him back. From Kitzhaber last time I don't think he is qualified.

 

[barfo]

Qualified? How exactly do you get to be qualified to run for governor?

The way you qualify to run for governor is to win the primary, which Dudley did. I was speaking of his qualifications to be governor, which are nonexistent. The man doesn't even vote.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Kitzhaber was a huge disappointment to me. I voted for him twice and all he did was veto bills and be a 'yes' man for the Public Employees Union. He had a well deserved reputation for being a consensus builder in the State legislature and then became the compete opposite as guv. He also represents the "business as usual" candidate who will not address the #1 issue with the state's budget- PERS retirement system. It has, literally, over ridden the ability to be a solvent state ever again. That means the state's woes can only get worse.

I agree with barfo that Dudley brings no specific qualifications to be a Governor. But at least if he is elected it will be making a new mistake instead of an old one. I think I'm ready for some new thinking. Even if it fails.

 

[tlongII]

The way you qualify to run for governor is to win the primary, which Dudley did. I was speaking of his qualifications to be governor, which are nonexistent. The man doesn't even vote.

barfo

Okay then what are the qualifications to be governor? Do you feel Kitzhaber has demonstrated these qualifications?

 

[barfo]

Kitzhaber was a huge disappointment to me. I voted for him twice and all he did was veto bills and be a 'yes' man for the Public Employees Union. He had a well deserved reputation for being a consensus builder in the State legislature and then became the compete opposite as guv. He also represents the "business as usual" candidate who will not address the #1 issue with the state's budget- PERS retirement system. It has, literally, over ridden the ability to be a solvent state ever again. That means the state's woes can only get worse.

I don't mean to suggest that PERS isn't a problem - it is. But you are exaggerating wildly here. PERS currently consumes less than 2% of the state budget.

I agree with barfo that Dudley brings no specific qualifications to be a Governor. But at least if he is elected it will be making a new mistake instead of an old one. I think I'm ready for some new thinking. Even if it fails.

The problem with that line of thinking is that all mistakes are not created equal. It is possible to make a bigger, taller mistake.

barfo

 

[barfo]

Okay then what are the qualifications to be governor? Do you feel Kitzhaber has demonstrated these qualifications?

I would say the minimum qualifications are some knowledge of, and interest in, state government.

Kitzhaber clearly meets those qualifications; Dudley clearly does not.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

I don't mean to suggest that PERS isn't a problem - it is. But you are exaggerating wildly here. PERS currently consumes less than 2% of the state budget.



The problem with that line of thinking is that all mistakes are not created equal. It is possible to make a bigger, taller mistake.

barfo

Actually PERS is projected to be a major driver of the increase to the state budget over the next 3 years. Perhaps $400 million in increases will be due to PERS. If you don't think it's a huge problem then I believe you are mistaken.

 

[tlongII]

I would say the minimum qualifications are some knowledge of, and interest in, state government.

Kitzhaber clearly meets those qualifications; Dudley clearly does not.

barfo

So you're saying the Republican candidate for governor has no interest in state government? Got it.

 

[barfo]

Actually PERS is projected to be a major driver of the increase to the state budget over the next 3 years. Perhaps $400 million in increases will be due to PERS. If you don't think it's a huge problem then I believe you are mistaken.

Yes. How much of the state budget is $400 million? 0.7%

It is a big problem. But let's not pretend it is insurmountable.

barfo

 

[barfo]

So you're saying the Republican candidate for governor has no interest in state government? Got it.

I'm saying there is zero evidence that he has an interest in it other than deciding that he wants to be governor.

Let's put it this way. I am more qualified, by far, to be Blazers GM, than Duds is to be Governor.

Edit: I note that you didn't challenge the "knowlege of state government" portion of my assertion. Probably a wise choice.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

Yes. How much of the state budget is $400 million? 0.7%

It is a big problem. But let's not pretend it is insurmountable.

barfo

$400 million represents roughly 10% of the state budget projected increases over the next 3 years. That is a HUGE problem.

 

[tlongII]

I'm saying there is zero evidence that he has an interest in it other than deciding that he wants to be governor.

Let's put it this way. I am more qualified, by far, to be Blazers GM, than Duds is to be Governor.

Edit: I note that you didn't challenge the "knowlege of state government" portion of my assertion. Probably a wise choice.

barfo

A lack of knowledge of state government may be a good thing imo.

 

[barfo]

$400 million represents roughly 10% of the state budget projected increases over the next 3 years. That is a HUGE problem.

What about the other 90%? Is that a HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE (that's 9 HUGE's) problem?

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

barfo, the state revenues have been dropping rapidly while pers is rising rapidly. It is a major problem. There are others, to be sure, but none as bad as pers.

 

[barfo]

A lack of knowledge of state government may be a good thing imo.

Sure. Ignorance is always really helpful, and a very desirable quality in a leader.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

What about the other 90%? Is that a HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE (that's 9 HUGE's) problem?

barfo

I'm glad you asked. The projected increase in the state budget over the next 3 years is made up of the following:

1. Backfill of one-time funds (federal stimulus, reserve funds) - 1.4 billion
2. Inflation (employee raises, medical insurance, equipment) - 907 million
3. Caseload Growth (Human Services) - 487 million
4. PERS (pensions for state workers, teachers) - 368 million
5. Increase in debt service (state hospital, emergency radio system) - 247 million
6. Increase in operation costs (state hospital, state police) - 247 million


It's clear to me that PERS is a HUGE problem. Of course I'm only going to use one HUGE though. It's something we can actually do something about.

 

[barfo]

barfo, the state revenues have been dropping rapidly while pers is rising rapidly.

Yes. State revenue has been dropping rapidly due to the recession. PERS contributions have been going up due to the recession (because PERS lost a boatload of money in the stock market crash in 2008).

It is a major problem. There are others, to be sure, but none as bad as pers.

Really? So you don't think school funding, which consumes 54% of the state budget, is as important as PERS (2%)?

The way to solve Oregon's budget crisis is forced sterilization of the population. If we eliminate the children, we can cut our taxes by 50% and still have plenty left over to fully fund PERS. Whaddya say?

barfo

 

[tlongII]

Sure. Ignorance is always really helpful, and a very desirable quality in a leader.

barfo

Not doing things as other politicians before you have done can be very powerful.

 

[barfo]

I'm glad you asked. The projected increase in the state budget over the next 3 years is made up of the following:

1. Backfill of one-time funds (federal stimulus, reserve funds) - 1.4 billion
2. Inflation (employee raises, medical insurance, equipment) - 907 million
3. Caseload Growth (Human Services) - 487 million
4. PERS (pensions for state workers, teachers) - 368 million
5. Increase in debt service (state hospital, emergency radio system) - 247 million
6. Increase in operation costs (state hospital, state police) - 247 million


It's clear to me that PERS is a HUGE problem. Of course I'm only going to use one HUGE though. It's something we can actually do something about.

Seems to me we could do something about all of those things, except inflation. If we wanted to.

barfo

 

[barfo]

Not doing things as other politicians before you have done can be very powerful.

Sure, look at the success Arnold Schwarzenegger has had in California. Electing celebrity know-nothings can have a very powerful effect on a state, indeed.

barfo

 

[tlongII]

Seems to me we could do something about all of those things, except inflation. If we wanted to.

barfo

Number 1 is going to be difficult, but I agree something could be done. Number 3 maybe.

 

[tlongII]

Sure, look at the success Arnold Schwarzenegger has had in California. Electing celebrity know-nothings can have a very powerful effect on a state, indeed.

barfo

California has much bigger problems than Schwarzenegger.

 

[barfo]

California has much bigger problems than Schwarzenegger.

Bigger than Schwarzenegger, and bigger because of Schwarzenegger.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Yes. State revenue has been dropping rapidly due to the recession. PERS contributions have been going up due to the recession (because PERS lost a boatload of money in the stock market crash in 2008).



Really? So you don't think school funding, which consumes 54% of the state budget, is as important as PERS (2%)?

The way to solve Oregon's budget crisis is forced sterilization of the population. If we eliminate the children, we can cut our taxes by 50% and still have plenty left over to fully fund PERS. Whaddya say?

barfo

I think you miss the point. We have a budget of a certain size. We're in the worst recession since the great depression. We can't have pers rising rapidly while the budget is shrinking just as rapidly. That creates a lot of serious cuts elsewhere. Pers spending has increased 46% since 2005. And it's continuing to go up yearly while state revenues continue to drop. It's sucking money away from other programs and this situation only gets worse. And worse. And worse. And worse- with no relief in sight. It takes more and more and nobody knows where the money will come from.

 

[barfo]

I think you miss the point. We have a budget of a certain size. We're in the worst recession since the great depression. We can't have pers rising rapidly while the budget is shrinking just as rapidly. That creates a lot of serious cuts elsewhere. Pers spending has increased 46% since 2005. And it's continuing to go up yearly while state revenues continue to drop. It's sucking money away from other programs and this situation only gets worse. And worse. And worse. And worse- with no relief in sight. It takes more and more and nobody knows where the money will come from.

I'm not denying any of that. [Edit: well, the certain size isn't correct. We have a budget of a very uncertain size.] But as TlongII pointed out, the increase in PERS is only 10% of the overall increase. So claiming PERS is *the* big problem is a little bit bogus. A big problem? Sure.

We bet the state budget on the stock market, and the stock market tanked. Whoops.

barfo