Boehner determined to put Republican Party out of it's misery

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Assuming that there is no rosy resolution on the horizon, can someone who knows finance help me out with this.

I expect lots of volatility until the end of the year and in January. Why shouldn't I buy VXX February call options at $35 or so? If this creates even half the volatility that the debt ceiling fiasco created last year, I would make 5-10 times my bet. If the markets really go crazy the profit would be many times higher. Seems like a no brainer but the payout is so huge with what I think is so lottle risk that I must be missing something.
 
I don't care how he says his last name, it's boner.
 
<rolls eyes> The "Fiscal Cliff" is more of a "Fiscal Curb."
 
Assuming that there is no rosy resolution on the horizon, can someone who knows finance help me out with this.

I expect lots of volatility until the end of the year and in January. Why shouldn't I buy VXX February call options at $35 or so? If this creates even half the volatility that the debt ceiling fiasco created last year, I would make 5-10 times my bet. If the markets really go crazy the profit would be many times higher. Seems like a no brainer but the payout is so huge with what I think is so lottle risk that I must be missing something.

It won't be until February for things to really get bat shit crazy. But i'm not an economic expert.
 
<rolls eyes> The "Fiscal Cliff" is more of a "Fiscal Curb."

I've heard it described as a pot of water. January they turn on the burners, and by june we'll start to evaporate some water.
 
Not so fast.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/12/12/fox-news-poll-according-to-voters-spending-cuts-are-must/

Overall, 61 percent of voters say major spending cuts are necessary to reduce the deficit, while 33 percent think increasing taxes on high earners would be enough. Half of Democrats think taxing the rich is all that is needed. By contrast, majorities of Republicans (77 percent) and independents (62 percent) think cutting spending is also necessary.

If income taxes go up, almost all voters -- 89 percent -- think President Obama should agree to make major cuts in government spending as well. That includes 83 percent of Democrats, 91 percent of independents and 95 percent of Republicans.

(AND THE BEST PART)

Meanwhile, by a 53-36 percent margin, voters think Obama will use the money from tax hikes primarily to increase government spending rather than to reduce the deficit.

(NO SHIT!)
 
That was a Fox News interesting Fox News poll. So Fox News took a poll, you say. Well what'll they think of next.
 
The way I see it, the govt. borrows $.42 for every $1 it spends. Give it $1 more, it will borrow $.42 more. Tax the rich for $40B, and they'll increase spending by about $80B.
 
I've been expecting republicans to go over "the cliff" all along so they can say they didn't vote to raise taxes. Then they'll just vote to reauthorize all the present tax rates in the next congress.
 
I think the Government (and the media to a slightly lesser degree) thinks that the populace is easily spooked/convinced/conned into believing whatever bat shit crazy things they say.
 
I kind of think its a scam by both sides to put us over the edge to dramatically raise revenue, while both putting the blame on the other parties inability to compromise.
 
I've been expecting republicans to go over "the cliff" all along so they can say they didn't vote to raise taxes. Then they'll just vote to reauthorize all the present tax rates in the next congress.

They can pass extension of Bush tax cuts in the House now. They should.

When Dems don't bring it up for a vote in the senate, we all know who allowed everyone's taxes to go up.

I'd also not vote to raise the debt ceiling.

Who wins? Anyone who wants govt. to control spending and get the deficits headed in the right direction. In the end, everyone wins.
 
Everyone will celebrate by sharing booze under the bridge after vacating their mortgage payments. The country will leap into Depression according to economists.
 
The same economists who say govt. should "invest" because of the multiplier effect? We are talking about giving O even more money to spend.
 
I kind of think its a scam by both sides to put us over the edge to dramatically raise revenue, while both putting the blame on the other parties inability to compromise.

naw, its a power play by the white house. oboma believes that he can get everything he wants, higher taxes, more spending and less input from congress while being able to blame all the harmfull effects on the GOP...and you know what? he can do it..
 
The same economists who say govt. should "invest" because of the multiplier effect? We are talking about giving O even more money to spend.

No, all economists say that allowing the Fiscal Cliff to happen will put us into a Depression. Why, does Fox have one in-house economist who differs?

If Republican leadership thinks that letting the Cliff happen will turn blame on Democrats, that strategy in miniature didn't work in 2012. They'll never win another election if they ruin the country hoping for a political gain.
 
No, all economists say that allowing the Fiscal Cliff to happen will put us into a Depression. Why, does Fox have one in-house economist who differs?

If Republican leadership thinks that letting the Cliff happen will turn blame on Democrats, that strategy in miniature didn't work in 2012. They'll never win another election if they ruin the country hoping for a political gain.

ya know, most of the time I have a hard time telling you from Maris..(j/k) but you have it right here

here is a nice read from the WP http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...ed-to-know-about-the-fiscal-cliff-in-one-faq/
 
Sometimes I have the same problem. I bookmarked that article (it's long and analytical) and will read it tonight.
 
No, all economists say that allowing the Fiscal Cliff to happen will put us into a Depression. Why, does Fox have one in-house economist who differs?

If Republican leadership thinks that letting the Cliff happen will turn blame on Democrats, that strategy in miniature didn't work in 2012. They'll never win another election if they ruin the country hoping for a political gain.

Read up on Keynes and the multiplier effect. The lefty economists you don't see on Fox News rave about him.

I read Robert Reich's (Clinton's Labor Secy.) blog, and he's constantly harping on raising taxes and borrowing even more enormous sums of money because the interest rates are so low. LOL.

Or is it Paul Krugman?

http://www.pkarchive.org/economy/KrugmanSummersCEAInflation1983Recovery090982.pdf

LOL
 
I've been expecting republicans to go over "the cliff" all along so they can say they didn't vote to raise taxes. Then they'll just vote to reauthorize all the present tax rates in the next congress.

They're not going to have the votes to pass anything in the foreseeable future. They're pretty much toast.
 
Read up on Keynes and the multiplier effect.

epi-fiscal-cliff-menu.jpg


That's from
 
The bottom of the page says that inflation began dropping in 1980, not 1981. Looks like you bet on the wrong horse all these years.

No, it does not.
 
Boehner is worried about the politics of this issue when the real point is principle. If the Republicans won't be a home for fiscal conservatives, then we'll find a new home. Start a third party that is Libertarian except for foreign policy and the GOP will disappear. Sure the Democrats will rule for a couple of decades, but that should be enough time for the system to collapse and for people to rebuild from the ashes. Whatever current political balance we have cannot stand.
 
epi-fiscal-cliff-menu.jpg


That's from

If your argument (and the multiplier) were true, then Communism would have been a raging success as it would make the most sense to just give all our money to the government and let them distribute it as they see fit.

Of course, that chart is a pile of crap. The definitive study of government multipliers was done by Robert Barro of Harvard University in 1974. His conclusion was that at best the multipler was a 0.8, meaning for ever $1.00 of government investment, it made $0.80.
 

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