Brandon Roy > Kobe Bryant (2 Viewers)

[Da_O]

He's not a good defender, that's why i bring it up. He doesn't "make it up" either, he's vulnerable and small obviously.

Then please show some logic that refutes the points in the article. I'm going to quote some more stuff since you didn't read the article.

I'll start with Opponent eFG%, it is true that Paul lets opposing PGs shoot at a higher percentage from the floor. The average eFG% of point guards is 49%. Paul lets his shoot 52%. There are a lot of reasons for the improved shooting percentage, almost all revolving around Paul's size - he roams for steals, he can't challenge shots that effectively, and he has trouble fighting through high screens, allowing open jumpers or drives to the hoop based on whether he trails or goes under.

What does Paul do to counteract this problem? He plays disruptor, generating steals, poking away the ball to teammates, and generally trying to wreak havoc. Is this an effective way of compensating? Many pundits would say no, claiming solid on-the-ball defense is more important, but here's some numbers:

* An average PG takes 15.8 shots in 48 minutes. With an eFG% of 49%, they produce 15.5 points per 48 minutes.
* A PG opposing Paul has an eFG% of 52%, allowing them to produce 16.4 points per 48 minutes.

So Paul's defense gives up an extra .9 points per game compared to an average PG. Here's what his compensation does:

* An average PG steals the ball 2.0 times every 48 minutes. A posession is worth 1.04 points on average in the NBA, so an average PG takes away 2.08 points from the opposing team.
* Paul steals the ball 3.4 times every 48 minutes. A posession is worth 1.04 points on average in the NBA, so Paul's steals essentially defend 3.54 points per game.

So Paul's defense takes an additional 1.44 points per game away from the opposing team compared to an average Point Guard.

The net, is +.5 points per game in Paul's favor, and that doesn't include the fact that a steal always results in a posession change - which adds points to the stealer's team, while a forced miss only results in a posession change 70% of the time.

 

[Da_O]

I don't think he should be classed with James and Bryant by anybody, and his MVP placing last year overrates him OM. His team is currently 6th in the West, and again, he has another All Star playing beside him.

Oh well, I guess we disagree about it.

But I don't see why he shouldn't be placed with them. The numbers speak otherwise.

 

[PapaG]

But I don't see why he shouldn't be placed with them. The numbers speak otherwise.

He was placed above LeBron James last season in the MVP vote. My debate was with a moderator who stated that Paul is underrated. I don't see it, and I think he is overrated.

 

[EHL]

Magic Johnson was a triple double machine. He was quite a player.

Not particularly relevant to what I said, but he should be very proud of himself.

But based on your logic, Chris Paul is already better than Magic Johnson, since statistically Bryant's peak was better than Magic's, even though any sane Laker fan knows Magic was the superior impact player.

 

[huevonkiller]

Then please show some logic that refutes the points in the article. I'm going to quote some more stuff since you didn't read the article.

Congrats, he takes a lot of gambles on defense. How many people actually think he's a good defender?

I guess you're into stat nerds and PER then? K. He was one of the worst defending PGs in the league last year, giving up 18+ PER? A pretty high number if you're into that.

However, his size is a liability on defense when it comes to challenging shots. He doesn't have particularly long arms and when he puts a hand up on a shooter it's very little deterrent, something that was noticeable in the San Antonio series when he was rotating out to 3-point shooters and failing to affect their delivery. Teams have less success on direct post-ups against him because he moves his feet and is reasonably strong. Also, he'll cheat too much to the strong side on D some times in search of a steal.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/play...pn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=2779

 

[Da_O]

He was placed above LeBron James last season in the MVP vote. My debate was with a moderator who stated that Paul is underrated. I don't see it, and I think he is overrated.

So? I don't care if a moderator thought he was underrated he's entitled to his opinion, I was directly asking you why Paul doesn't belong in the same class as Lebron and Kobe. Like I said the numbers speak otherwise.

 

[PapaG]

So? I don't care if a moderator thought he was underrated he's entitled to his opinion, I was directly asking you why Paul doesn't belong in the same class as Lebron and Kobe. Like I said the numbers speak otherwise.

Because he's never been in a Finals, and LeBron and Bryant did it without an All Star beside them.

 

[Da_O]

Okay heuvon, you're continuing to ignore everything that is being said and what is in the article.

It's saying due to his lack of size he can never be a great on the ball defender. But he MORE than makes up for it in steals.

He only gives up .9 more points than the average PG then you factor in his steals which lead to points the other way, I think it's pretty safe to say he's an above average defender.

It's not my fault you don't want to look at the facts.

 

[Minstrel]

But based on your logic, Chris Paul is already better than Magic Johnson, since statistically Bryant's peak was better than Magic's, even though any sane Laker fan knows Magic was the superior impact player.

Which logic of mine? That Kobe is off his peak, due to PER? I'm not saying Kobe is past his peak purely due to PER. I watch a lot of Kobe, I have for years. He seems clearly not as good as he was a few years ago. PER simply validates the observational data, for me.

Chris Paul is playing at a level that I haven't seen in a point guard since Magic Johnson. His PER is just solid evidence, to me, that my eyes don't deceive me. Whether he's better than Magic is a different question, and not one I purported to answer.

 

[Da_O]

Because he's never been in a Finals, and LeBron and Bryant did it without an All Star beside them.

Big Z was a former all star when Lebron did it and Bryant had Gasol when he went to the finals, who was an all-star this year if I'm not mistaken.

So Paul is punished because Lebron and Kobe had superior teams.

 

[huevonkiller]

Okay heuvon, you're continuing to ignore everything that is being said and what is in the article.

It's saying due to his lack of size he can never be a great on the ball defender. But he MORE than makes up for it in steals.

He only gives up .9 more points than the average PG then you factor in his steals which lead to points the other way, I think it's pretty safe to say he's an above average defender.

It's not my fault you don't want to look at the facts.

The article said he tries to compensate it and it cites points, not that he's as good a defender as his SPG suggests. PER is supposed to be a better method of being an all-encompassing barometer, correct? I don't see what the problem with my statistical reference is, it is just as valid.

 

[PapaG]

Big Z was a former all star when Lebron did it and Bryant had Gasol when he went to the finals, who was an all-star this year if I'm not mistaken.

So Paul is punished because Lebron and Kobe had superior teams.

I meant in a season that they went to the Finals. Paul isn't in the class of Bryant or James IMO.

 

[bobf]

Here is the problem with +/-.

1. It takes 3-5 seasons of data to reduce statistical noise to tolerable levels. Not kidding. It really does take that much data.
2. Using 3-5 seasons of data requires holding every player's rating constant during that time frame. That introduces a whole new error into the model.

82games.com claims to get around this by using 5 seasons of data, but weighting the current season much more heavily than earlier seassons. But the standard errors they report are about as low as using 5 full seasons of unweighted data. That does not wash. I strongly suspect something is wrong with their methods. I don't know enough statistics to prove it though.

For example, take polling. If you poll 1,000 people your standard error will be much lower than polling 100 people. But suppose you poll 1,000 people and weight the last 100 so much that they constitute 95% of your poll. Obviously the standard error should go back up to the levels of the smaller poll. 82games.com errors stay low. Something wrong.

Then they wonder why Chris Paul's definsive rating swings from the horrific -4.5 last year to the superb + 6.8 this year. Way outside their supposed standard error.

In spite of all that....

I believe LA > Amare Stoudamire because he has significantly outperformed him over the course of 3.5 seasons using +/- with no weighting. IMO Amare's stats have been Nashified. I was hoping he'd get traded so we might see if that is really true.

 

[Da_O]

The article said he tries to compensate it and it cites points, not that he's as good a defender as his SPG suggests. PER is supposed to be a better method of being an all-encompassing barometer, correct? I don't see what the problem with my statistical reference is, it is just as valid.

What statistical reference? Oh the one you cite no link to. Yeah, I'm not just going to take your word for it. If you do, I'll just go and break down how flawed PER is.

EDIT: It is true that he's not saying he's a good defender because of his steals but that the amount of Opponent allowed FG% between him and the average starting point guard is so marginal, that he makes up for it with steals that turn into points.

 

[huevonkiller]

What statistical reference? Oh the one you cite no link to. Yeah, I'm not just going to take your word for it. If you do, I'll just go and break down how flawed PER is.

What missing link are you speaking of?

Frankly what is your point? He gives up less points after your little steal converter, but at a higher percentage than the league average? Not to mention the other boosted stats he gives up? His steals are misleading either way.

 

[Da_O]

I meant in a season that they went to the Finals. Paul isn't in the class of Bryant or James IMO.

Well that assertion needs to be backed up with some evidence as the numbers say otherwise.

 

[PapaG]

Well that assertion needs to be backed up with some evidence as the numbers say otherwise.

I already said Paul has never been in a Finals. That doesn't need to be backed up. You can cite all of the superfluous facts you need to make yourself feel better, I suppose, but Paul is a very good player who is not Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or even Tim Duncan.

 

[Da_O]

What missing link are you speaking of?

Frankly what is your point? He gives up less points after your little steal converter, but at a higher percentage than the league average? Not to mention the other boosted stats he gives up? His steals are misleading either way.

My point is, earlier you had said what has steals got to do with anything, and I proved otherwise. I showed that since Paul only gives up .9 points more than the average PG he makes up for in steals which would almost certainly lead to points the other way. And since he steals at a much higher rate than other PG's, he's actually saving more points through steals than on the ball defense.

EDIT: The link you are missing is when you say Paul gave up 18 PER to opposing PG's.

 

[Toko]

I already said Paul has never been in a Finals. That doesn't need to be backed up. You can cite all of the superfluous facts you need to make yourself feel better, I suppose, but Paul is a very good player who is not Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or even Tim Duncan.

"Even" Tim Duncan? he is better than lebron/kobe.

 

[PapaG]

"Even" Tim Duncan? he is better than lebron/kobe.

His name hadn't been mentioned in this stupid thread until I brought it up, so excuse me for saying "even Tim Duncan".

 

[Da_O]

I already said Paul has never been in a Finals. That doesn't need to be backed up. You can cite all of the superfluous facts you need to make yourself feel better, I suppose, but Paul is a very good player who is not Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or even Tim Duncan.

And I already said that I guess Paul is punished that his teams were inferior to that of the Spurs, Cavs, or Lakers. If I remember correctly, isn't Basketball a team sport.

We might as well say Robert Horry>Michael Jordan. Since as you know Horry has been to more finals.

We can keep going back and forth.

 

[huevonkiller]

My point is, earlier you had said what has steals got to do with anything, and I proved otherwise. I showed that since Paul only gives up .9 points more than the average PG he makes up for in steals which would almost certainly lead to points the other way. And since he steals at a much higher rate than other PG's, he's actually saving more points through steals than on the ball defense.

You cite one stat Paul is better than the league average in. And what of the others? http://www.82games.com/0708/07NOH1C.HTM He's nothing special defensively and got torched more than anyone I can recall last year at that position who played that many minutes. The fact that he steals to that degree means very little.

 

[Da_O]

You cite one stat Paul is better than the league average in. And what of the others? http://www.82games.com/0708/07NOH1C.HTM He's nothing special defensively and got torched more than anyone I can recall last year at that position who played that many minutes. The fact that he steals to that degree means very little.

Because the stat's(not just one) show that he gives up a marginal amount more points than the average PG. But compensation from creating steals he takes away 1.44 points per game from the opposing team compared to an average Point Guard. The net, is +.5 points per game in Paul's favor so he's actually saving more points by creating steals than great on the ball defense.

case closed.

 

[huevonkiller]

Because the stat's(not just one) show that he gives up a marginal amount more points than the average PG. But compensation from creating steals he takes away 1.44 points per game from the opposing team compared to an average Point Guard. The net, is +.5 points per game in Paul's favor so he's actually saving more points by creating steals than great on the ball defense.

case closed.

Steve Nash gives up an Efficiency Field Goal percentage of 47, is he a good defender? Well compared to Paul's 52% possibly. Your analysis is incomplete.

 

[Da_O]

Steve Nash gives up an Efficiency Field Goal percentage of 47, is he a good defender? Well compared to Paul's 52% possibly. Your analysis is incomplete.

The 52 percent was the FG percentage allowed not eFG percentage. Paul gives up an eFG of .469

The stats your using aren't really giving you a good argument.

Let's look around the league at what I consider the best on the ball defenders at PG.

We'll post Paul's stats for this year, the very same ones you've been using.

Paul
http://www.82games.com/0809/08NOH1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .469, PER 16.9

Rondo
http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .478, PER 16.3

Harris
http://www.82games.com/0809/08NJN1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .507, PER 18.0

Miller
http://www.82games.com/0809/08PHI1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG, .507, PER  17.3

Billups
http://www.82games.com/0809/08DEN1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .486, PER 15.8

The stats that you have been using it shows that Paul actually holds his opponent to less eFG and a lower PER than most rest of the league. I've admitted that Paul is not a great on the ball defender but with him being a disruptor and creating steals he makes up for his on the ball defense. But according to YOUR stats he's a great on the ball defender even on par with the leagues best.. Your argument is more flawed than mine.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Roy isn't better than Kobe.

Kobe is the 3rd best player in the league while Roy is borderline top 10.

 

[huevonkiller]

The 52 percent was the FG percentage allowed not eFG percentage. Paul gives up an eFG of .469

The stats your using aren't really giving you a good argument.

Let's look around the league at what I consider the best on the ball defenders at PG.

We'll post Paul's stats for this year, the very same ones you've been using.

Paul
http://www.82games.com/0809/08NOH1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .469, PER 16.9

Rondo
http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .478, PER 16.3

Harris
http://www.82games.com/0809/08NJN1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .507, PER 18.0

Miller
http://www.82games.com/0809/08PHI1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG, .507, PER  17.3

Billups
http://www.82games.com/0809/08DEN1.HTM#bypos
Counterpart eFG .486, PER 15.8

The stats that you have been using it shows that Paul actually holds his opponent to less eFG and a lower PER than most rest of the league. I've admitted that Paul is not a great on the ball defender but with him being a disruptor and creating steals he makes up for his on the ball defense. But according to YOUR stats he's a great on the ball defender even on par with the leagues best.. Your argument is more flawed than mine.

Various defensive stars live by their reputation. I never said any of these other players were elite defenders.

Further, I was using 07-08 data because this season isn't even over yet. Nash has held his opponents to an eFG of 47 as I have stated, and? That is but one aspect of defense.

And PGs don't just look to just score with the ball, PER takes into account turnovers caused by Paul and opposing PER is still above the league average. You've proven nothing, look at my original post.

 

[LittleAlex]

Roy isn't better than Kobe.

Kobe is the 3rd best player in the league while Roy is borderline top 10.

Kobe, LaBron and Duncan are in a league of their own. Wade is close, but after that the drop off is pretty significant.

I can't really decide who is best between the top three. Perhaps Kobe because he has altered his game multiple times to make up for the slight deterioration of his athletic abilities. LaBron has not had to make that kind of adjustment yet, and Ducan never needed to since he played like an old man at 22.

I tend to lean towards Duncan, to be honest, but I have no real proof. I do think that it is a fun conversation to have. I have always admired Duncan's game even if I hate the way he has owned Portland. There is no doubt he is the best Power Forward of all time. As good as he is, Kobe cannot claim the same for his position.

CP3 is awesome and should be an MVP canidate, if you consider it as Most Valuable Player to their team. The Hornets wouldn't make the playoffs without CP3 and they are always in the hunt with him. That effect can only really be seen in his absence. This does not make CP3 the best player in the NBA.

If you consider MVP to be Most Valuable Player to the NBA as a whole, then Kobe and LaBron should split the award every year.