Broussard(along with a GM, assistant coaches and a scout) On the Blazers

[KingSpeed]

Furthermore, when you have an elite PG and two MVP candidates, you're obviously a contender.

 

[Draco]

IMO, it's a bit different when you are talking about teams that have been contenders and didn't make any significant roster moves than a team that was piss poor last year and added a couple of role players. Might we be contenders as the season rolls on? absolutely. Are we contenders right now after 18 games and going 33-49 last year? Not sure how anyone can honestly say yes

Thats a pretty damn big change from your rhetoric 18 games ago.

 

[blue9]

Who cares what a bunch of people who pay far less attention to the Blazers than us, think about the Blazers? Their "honest" opinions don't win us games.

 

[ponderguy]

Furthermore, when you have an elite PG and two MVP candidates, you're obviously a contender.

LMA is a fringe MVP candidate. Dame is not yet, he still has some work to do.

 

[Draco]

Furthermore, when you have an elite PG and two MVP candidates, you're obviously a contender.

I’m not ready to say anything like that yet. I’ve been one of the optimists from back at draft time. The west is deep but weak at the top. To be on pace for 57 wins, and match the Nuggets of last season we should have a record of 24-4. That is based off winning nearly all home games, beating bad teams on the road and losing to good teams on the road. So our schedule is far more difficult as we get to the middle part of the season.

Also if we get to a second round playoff series I’m not sure this team will be able to keep their intensity up. The Blazers will be such a feel good story and these players will be in such a new environment the focus may change. Even if we can beat any team in the west in a single playoff series, I just don’t see this team taking the next step to winning FOUR consecutive playoff series this season.

So I guess it depends what your definition of “contender” is. Do you define it as a team that can win a playoff series, or a team that can win a title? Could we get hot and make the WCF? Yeah I say there is a chance of that. But I don’t think the Blazers can win a title so I say we will not be true contenders.

 

[KingSpeed]

LMA is a fringe MVP candidate. Dame is not yet, he still has some work to do.

LMA is #2 behind Paul George in the MVP race and Wes Matthews is #8. Dame is elite PG.

 

[KingSpeed]

I’m not ready to say anything like that yet. I’ve been one of the optimists from back at draft time. The west is deep but weak at the top. To be on pace for 57 wins, and match the Nuggets of last season we should have a record of 24-4. That is based off winning nearly all home games, beating bad teams on the road and losing to good teams on the road. So our schedule is far more difficult as we get to the middle part of the season.

Also if we get to a second round playoff series I’m not sure this team will be able to keep their intensity up. The Blazers will be such a feel good story and these players will be in such a new environment the focus may change. Even if we can beat any team in the west in a single playoff series, I just don’t see this team taking the next step to winning FOUR consecutive playoff series this season.

So I guess it depends what your definition of “contender” is. Do you define itthe a team that can win a playoff series, or a team that can win a title? Could we get hot and make the WCF? Yeah I say there is a chance of that. But I don’t think the Blazers can win a title so I say we will not be true contenders.

24-4, say what? That's on pace to win 70! Were the 10-11 Mavericks a "contender"? Not a single person here or in the media picked them to win the title that year.

 

[ponderguy]

LMA is #2 behind Paul George in the MVP race and Wes Matthews is #8. Dame is elite PG.

Did LeBron fall off a cliff? Did Durant break his arm? Dame is a very good PG but he still has work to do on defense and his shooting % haven't been up to what we should be expecting this year. Wes can't keep shooting 54% for the year, at some point he will settle back down to a more realistic %.

 

[Strenuus]

LMA is #2 behind Paul George in the MVP race and Wes Matthews is #8. Dame is elite PG.

Who would ever remember the 8th best player in the league?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Thats a pretty damn big change from your rhetoric 18 games ago.

It's what I believed at the time. I'm not sure why some fans have a hard time realizing it's a long season and things change. I think Miami will win another title right now, but if Lebron gets hurt, I won't think that anymore

 

[BlazerCaravan]

It's what I believed at the time. I'm not sure why some fans have a hard time realizing it's a long season and things change. I think Miami will win another title right now, but if Wade gets hurt, I won't think that anymore

FTFY... LeBron can't even beat Detroit at home without his buddy to clean up for him.

 

[blue9]

It's what I believed at the time.

How dare you allow your beliefs to change over time!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Who would ever remember the 8th best player in the league?

That player, his mom and most of all his agent when it comes time to sign a new contract!

BNM

 

[Strenuus]

That player, his mom and most of all his agent when it comes time to sign a new contract!

BNM

On average, what is the 8th best player in the league getting paid?

Now there's some research!

 

[noknobs]

Looking back at the Finals last season, Spurs shot same amount of 3s per game as they did in the regular season. Shot a better %.
Same thing with the Heat. And both teams gave up a far worse percentage in the finals than they did throughout the regular season.

Same thing for the Spurs in WCF against the Grizzlies, same amount, shot same % as regular season.
Miami did take slightly less against Indy

Indy shot fewer in that Miami series, but at a better percentage.
Memphis shot slightly more at roughly the same percentage.

Top 4 teams last season so no significant change in the playoffs to assume they were all of a sudden stopping the 3 more.

Am curious if you have a stat that supports your take I'm missing?

The teams that make the playoffs on a whole simply play better defense than many of the teams one faces in the regular season. %'s do go down in the playoffs, not just from 3, but in general. The four teams you mention all shot worse from the field in the post-season, and all but the Spurs shot worse from 3.

Last year of the 16 playoffs teams, 14 shot worse from the field (average of -2.3%) and 14 shot worse from 3 (average of -3.2%). It's no surprise that MIL and LAL, which faced MIA and SAS in the first round, shot 9.9% and 8.5% worse from 3 in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

I read, but can't confirm that the overall percentages were likewise down in the 2011-2012 post season. I think that's pretty typical. But there are tons of factors such as matchups, coaching and game-plans, playoff experience, guys getting hot, a DEN-GSW first round matchup, etc., so of course you can find exceptions to this trend, especially with the elite teams.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Wade is injured again. If he is injured come playoff time they won't come out of the east, let alone win a title this year.

No, I don't know the extent of his injuries.

It's what I believed at the time. I'm not sure why some fans have a hard time realizing it's a long season and things change. I think Miami will win another title right now, but if Lebron gets hurt, I won't think that anymore

 

[Nikolokolus]

How dare you allow your beliefs to change over time!

the sure sign of moral turpitude and a feckless mind.

 

[Draco]

24-4, say what? That's on pace to win 70! Were the 10-11 Mavericks a "contender"? Not a single person here or in the media picked them to win the title that year.

No, if we have a 22-4 record we will be on pace for 56 wins, due to our schedule being easier at the start of the year. See this thread

This projection gives us a record of 22-4, which is an unreal 85% winning percentage and appears at first glance to be on pace to sniff the 72 win Bulls! But in reality by the end of the year we are only projected to win 56 games.

We have a 4 game road trip in 5 nights @SAS @DAL @HOU @OKC and later we have a 5 game road trip @DAL @HOU @MEM @SAS @NOP. Those stretches are far more difficult than anything we've faced thus far and should be projected for less wins to give a true indicator of the winning rate the team is playing at.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Its one of those old fashioned stupid statements that is outdated. The Spurs shot a ton of threes in the playoffs last year and had Danny Green in the running for finals MVP because of his 3 point shooting. The Spurs ended up losing because Miami was drilling three’s with LeBron and the famous Ray Allen shot to avoid elimination.

Teams that don’t shoot threes have major problems in the playoffs! Its exactly the opposite of what is repeated. Take Andre Miller, he’s never been out of the first round. In the regular season it doesn’t matter nearly as much because defenses are tired, out of position, and less focused. But during the postseason if you don’t have the floor spacing of three point shooters a good defense can double team their opponent without paying a penalty. The Blazers team with Andre Miller and Gerald Wallace both on the court at once couldn’t make Dallas pay for leaving them wide open.

Look at Miami’s players, almost all of them can hit the three. They have shooters like Mario Chalmers, Ray Allen, James Jones, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis, last year Mike Miller; even Bosh is shooting well from 3. The 3 pointer is far more important in playoff basketball than in the regular season.

Yeah except for the bit where it's not actually.

 

[B-Roy]

We have a 4 game road trip in 5 nights @SAS @DAL @HOU @OKC and later we have a 5 game road trip @DAL @HOU @MEM @SAS @NOP. Those stretches are far more difficult than anything we've faced thus far and should be projected for less wins to give a true indicator of the winning rate the team is playing at.

That is insane. We'd be lucky to get out 4-6.

 

[Boob-No-More]

On average, what is the 8th best player in the league getting paid?

Now there's some research!

Well, that all depends on how you define the 8th best player in the league. Do you use one of the many advanced stats like PER, PIE, eff or Simple Rating? Or, do you wait until the season is over and see who comes in 8th in MVP voting?

Just for grins:

Current Season:

PER: Steph Curry - $9,887,642

PIE: Dirk Nowitski - $22,721,381

Simple Rating: Chris Paul - $18,668,431

eff: Carmelo Anthony - $22,407,474

And, let's throw in the guy who came in 8th in last year's MVP voting:

James Harden - $13,701,250

That comes out to an average of: $17,477,235.60.

That list includes two players (Curry and Harden) in the first year of their post-rookie contract extensions, and three players who are at the tail end of very lucrative contracts that were signed before the current CBA went into affect.

In any case, I'd say being the 8th best player in the NBA is good work if you can get it, and if Wes keeps playing at his current level for another season and three quarters, he may be in for a very big pay raise come July, 2015.

I also found it interesting that most of these guys are all over the place, depending on what stat you use. CP3 is ranked 4th or 5th by most, and was 4th in MVP voting last year, but has only the 8th best Simple Rating. Melo is ranked 8th best by eff, but between 16th and 21st by the other advanced stats. However, Steph Curry is rated the most consistently by the advanced stats, between 7th and 9th in all cases. So, he's the closest we have to a conensus 8th best player in the league right now.

BNM

 

[KingSpeed]

No, if we have a 22-4 record we will be on pace for 56 wins, due to our schedule being easier at the start of the year. See this thread


We have a 4 game road trip in 5 nights @SAS @DAL @HOU @OKC and later we have a 5 game road trip @DAL @HOU @MEM @SAS @NOP. Those stretches are far more difficult than anything we've faced thus far and should be projected for less wins to give a true indicator of the winning rate the team is playing at.

Our schedule has been murder! 5 sets of back to backs. 10 of first 17 games on the road. Faced Indiana, GS, and SA on second night of back to back. And we've dominated. Dominated. We should have very little problem with those road trips. We are a dominant road team.

That is insane. We'd be lucky to get out 4-6.

And your probably didn't have us going 15-3 in first 18 games. Can't go 4-6 in 9 games though. I have us going 7-2 at worst. Have you been playing attention to our time this year?

 

[KingSpeed]

Did LeBron fall off a cliff? Did Durant break his arm? Dame is a very good PG but he still has work to do on defense and his shooting % haven't been up to what we should be expecting this year. Wes can't keep shooting 54% for the year, at some point he will settle back down to a more realistic %.

Durant is third. LeBron is 4th.

 

[BlazerWookee]

I think Barton is underrated.

I couldn't disagree more: I think he's dramatically overrated. He's got young Martell skills and Blazer Crawchuck level irrational confidence.

 

[KingSpeed]

The way to beat out LeBron for MVP is to be the best player on the team with the best record. That's how DRose did it. Considering Indiana's schedule is about to get harder, I predict the Blazers will have the best record in the NBA.

 

[KingSpeed]

I couldn't disagree more: I think he's dramatically overrated. He's got young Martell skills and Blazer Crawchuck level irrational confidence.

How do you knw this? He never plays.

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

By Chris Broussard | ESPN Insider
"OK, I'll admit it: I didn't pick the Portland Trail Blazers to make the playoffs. In fact, I thought things would go so badly in Portland that the Blazers' Terry Stotts would be the first coach fired this season. Instead, Stotts was named Western Conference Coach of the Month for November.

So I am willing to eat crow. Lots of it." /thread lol

 

[Mediocre Man]

By Chris Broussard | ESPN Insider
OK, I'll admit it: I didn't pick the Portland Trail Blazers to make the playoffs. In fact, I thought things would go so badly in Portland that the Blazers' Terry Stotts would be the first coach fired this season. Instead, Stotts was named Western Conference Coach of the Month for November.

So I am willing to eat crow. Lots of it. /thread lol

I am here as well....not to this extreme though.

I didn't think Portland would play near this good. I still don't think they will finish in the top 6 of the playoffs, but we will see more as the season goes on. 19 games

 

[Nikolokolus]

Admitting you were wrong is a weakness and the weak must be expunged.

 

[Shooter]

The idea of Lopez going down is frightening though.

Yes, but after watching the way Lopez plays, I don't see a high likelihood of injury. He has sort of a plodding style--rather than a high-flying style--and that means his feet are always planted underneath him and he's always in a good position to rebound or score or block a shot. It's all about positioning with him, and I think that helps reduce his risk of injury.