Can Oden still be a once-in-a-generation ceneter?

[Harry's Raincoat]

Oden isn't far off from being a very good center.

His stats as a 21 yr old are only slightly behind the other good Blazer centers of the past.

Walton first year 13ppg 12.6rpg 2.7bpg
Bowie first year 10ppg 8.6 rpg 2.7bpg
Sabonis first year 14ppg 8 rpg 1 bpg

Oden first year 9ppg 7rpg 1bpg

I predict much better this year from him.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Oden isn't far off from being a very good center.

His stats as a 21 yr old are only slightly behind the other good Blazer centers of the past.

Walton first year 13ppg 12.6rpg 2.7bpg
Bowie first year 10ppg 8.6 rpg 2.7bpg
Sabonis first year 14ppg 8 rpg 1 bpg

Oden first year 9ppg 7rpg 1bpg

I predict much better this year from him.

All three of those guys were older and more mature as well.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I just want to see one healthy season where Oden is effective ... all this "once in a generation center" stuff is as premature and meaningless as the talk about this team being the next Dynasty.

 

[THE HCP]

I don't know, but he might just lead the league in rebounding if he can stay on the court for 30 minutes!

 

[oldmangrouch]

I just want to see one healthy season where Oden is effective ... all this "once in a generation center" stuff is as premature and meaningless as the talk about this team being the next Dynasty.

Bingo.

Enough of the hubris.

 

[Minstrel]

Duncan is a two-time NBA MVP and 3-time Finals MVP. That's a pretty high ceiling for any player

As I said in that post, that's essentially the ceiling that the scouting community gave him. So far, I've seen no evidence that they were wrong. Despite being considerably limited, he put up an impressive PER as a rookie and showed glimpses of the difficulty defenders will have in handling him when he's got his athleticism back to go with his size.

 

[Idog1976]

I think Oden will be a better offensive player than Russell. Russell's career high scoring average was 18.9 PPG and he averaged 15.1 PPG for his career. I think Oden has the potential to top both of those, or at least come close. The real difference will be in FG%. Russell had a career FG% of 0.440, with a high of 0.467. Oden as a rookie, shot 0.564 from the field.

Like Russell, Oden will be the center on a team full of other great players. So, he will likely never be the #1 scoring option on offense. Like Russell, his main contributions will be on defense and rebounding the ball. Of course, he won't average as many RPG as Russell did. No one averages 22 - 24 RG these days. The pace is slower and the shooting percentages much higher. So, that means there are a lot fewer missed shots to rebound. It's too bad TRB% is not available for the time when Russell played. That would have been a great way to compare rebounding between these two players whose careers are separated by 50 years. Russell led the league in RPG five times and was top 3 in RPG 13 times. If Oden can come close to matching that, we'll call the rebounding a draw. If not, advantage Russell.

In terms of defense, I think Oden will be a great defender, but Russell is the greatest of all time. He is the all-time career leader in defensive win shares and led the league in this category 11 times (including 10 straight seasons).

And, then there's the rings. Russell has 11, and five finals MVPs. As much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Oden (or anyone) will come close to matching that.

Oden won't be Bill Russell. He will be Greg Oden. He will play a similar role. I think his offense will be a little better than Russell's (based on higher shooting percentages). His rebounding will be similar (after accounting for differences in pace and FG%), perhaps not quite as good as Russell's. Oden will be a great defender for his generation, but not an all-time great (or THE all-time great), like Russell. I do think Oden will be a vital part of multiple championships, but not nearly as many as Russell (keep in mind there were only 8 or 9 other teams in the league when Russell played, not 29). If Oden ends up being a modern day, poor man's Bill Russell, I will be totally happy. While I think low post scoring is very important, but when it comes to big men, I value rebounding and defense even more. Oden will never lead the league in scoring, probably never crack the top 10, maybe not even lead his own team in scoring, but his contributions on defense and rebounding will justify taking him first over all in the 2007 NBA draft.

BNM

Fantastic post BNM, simply fantastic repped. You and Minstrel have my position on Oden more the covered. Let me say it again. Oden will be a top 5 maybe top 3 Center this year and will likely be battling for best center in the league by the 2010/11 season. I expect a few DPOY's to go along with a few rings. Yes, Oden IS a once in a generation center when it comes to rebounding and defense and his offense will always be a what if he had gone to OKC and been the focus kind of question. His offense will be solid but I am hoping we never have to rely on it to a great degree. Again his numbers for this season 36 mins 15pts 12 rebounds (7 OFF 5 DEF) 2.25 blocks 2.5 assists 56% FG% and MIP and that is only the begining...

 

[PapaG]

As I said in that post, that's essentially the ceiling that the scouting community gave him. So far, I've seen no evidence that they were wrong. Despite being considerably limited, he put up an impressive PER as a rookie and showed glimpses of the difficulty defenders will have in handling him when he's got his athleticism back to go with his size.

That's great. Meanwhile, comparing him to Tim Duncan as a "best-case" seems premature. Duncan carried the Spurs. That's how he impacted his team. Will Oden have the same impact on the Blazers? I have my doubts. I think he'll always need a Roy-type player around him, and I don't see multiple MVP awards in his future.

 

[DaRizzle]

Do you think Andrew is a once-in-a-generation center?

no. but he will be the first or 2nd best C in the league for several years during his career

 

[axs88]

I am as optimistic about Oden as anyone, but the Duncan ceiling may be a bit too high. Duncan averaged a 25 PER for his career, 22.6 in his rookie season as a 21-year-old (<- weird since he did 4 years in college) and 27 at his peak.

 

[Minstrel]

That's great. Meanwhile, comparing him to Tim Duncan as a "best-case" seems premature.

Projections are always "premature." By definition. Once they've reached a level, it's no longer a projection. And a "best case" projection is always a projection that is not the likeliest case. So, while we seem to be arguing, I'm really not sure that we disagree on a whole lot.

If I were comparing Oden to Duncan right now, it would be absurdly premature. I don't think "top-tier big man" as his ceiling is unreasonable considering the scouting consensus of him and what he's already shown, in college and his rookie season.

 

[Minstrel]

Duncan [had a] 22.6 in his rookie season as a 21-year-old

Oden had an 18.1 PER as a rookie, despite being clearly limited as he recovered from injury. I don't know if he could have matched 22.6 if he had been at 100%, but I think it would have been a lot closer.

 

[axs88]

Oden had an 18.1 PER as a rookie, despite being clearly limited as he recovered from injury. I don't know if he could have matched 22.6 if he had been at 100%, but I think it would have been a lot closer.

That's right. Not to mention Duncan had the benefit of playing 4 years in college. I think this upcoming season will tell quite a bit about Oden's ceiling.

 

[PapaG]

Projections are always "premature." By definition. Once they've reached a level, it's no longer a projection. And a "best case" projection is always a projection that is not the likeliest case. So, while we seem to be arguing, I'm really not sure that we disagree on a whole lot.

If I were comparing Oden to Duncan right now, it would be absurdly premature. I don't think "top-tier big man" as his ceiling is unreasonable considering the scouting consensus of him and what he's already shown, in college and his rookie season.

Of course it isn't. I think he'll be a 'top-teir big man'. It is premature, however, to attach "first ballot Hall of Famer, 3-time Finals MVP, and 2-time NBA MVP" as a reasonable ceiling. Duncan is arguably the greatest C/PF-combo player of his generation, and perhaps even of all-time.

Does Brandon Roy have a Michael Jordan or even a Kobe Bryant "ceiling", for the sake of argument? I don't think so in either case. It doesn't mean Brandon can't be a great player, but why burden him with unrealistic expectations. Or perhaps we should just call every greatest-ever player as Player X's "ceiling" and devalue the entire concept.

 

[Masbee]

Sure, he's improved. He's most likely no longer a complete bust.

Too many people, for too long now have thrown around so promiscously the "BUST" label at or near Oden.

None of them have a fucking clue.

You want to find out what a "bust" center looks like stat-wise look up the numbers for Olowokandi and Kwame and Darko Milicic.

I put bust in quotes as bust in this meaning is a center who was drafted high, didn't pan out as hoped - AND YET - played in the league for years and years. The true busts never make it past their rookie deal.

When you look it up, you see that Greg, hobbling on surgically repaired knee, out of condition from inability to train in the off-season, during his rookie year, had a significantly higher PER than Olowokandi, Kwame or Darko did in any of their very best years.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Too many people, for too long now have thrown around so promiscously the "BUST" label at or near Oden.

None of them have a fucking clue.

You want to find out what a "bust" center looks like stat-wise look up the numbers for Olowokandi and Kwame and Darko Milicic.

I put bust in quotes as bust in this meaning is a center who was drafted high, didn't pan out as hoped - AND YET - played in the league for years and years. The true busts never make it past their rookie deal.

When you look it up, you see that Greg, hobbling on surgically repaired knee, out of condition from inability to train in the off-season, during his rookie year, had a significantly higher PER than Olowokandi, Kwame or Darko did in any of their very best years.

Although it's still too early to put him in the "bust" category with the others, Andrea Bargnani has now played three full season in the NBA - and has yet to top PER = 15.0 (average player). His career PER is 12.9. I think Bargnani has sufficient offensive talent to avoid the bust label - certianly more than the three you mentioned. However, I am SO FREAKING GLAD WE HAVE ODEN INSTEAD OF BARGNANI. Even if Bargnani someday has a PER approaching Oden's rookie PER of 18.1, I'd still rather have Oden.

Defense and rebounding win championships. Simply put, Oden gives you both, Bargnani gives you neither. Oden, as an out of shape rookie recovering from microfracture surgery was one of the top rebounders in the league last season (in terms of TRB%). Bargani is one of the worst rebounding starting 7-footers in the entire history of the NBA (2nd worst all-time behind Brad Sellers, to be exact). So, even if Bargnani ends up averaging 25 PPG and completely shakes the bust label and Oden only averages a career high of 15 PPG, I'd still rather have Oden and his great defense and 20% TRB% over Bargnani and his lousy 10% (career best) TRB%.

Casual fans, and media assclowns put far too much value in scoring and seriously undervalue rebounding and defense. If a number 1 pick doesn't immediately average 20 PPG, they label him a bust. High scoring gets you on Sportscenter and helps sell jerseys, but great defense wins rings. I'll take the latter any day.

BNM

 

[andalusian]

Although it's still too early to put him in the "bust" category with the others, Andrea Bargnani has now played three full season in the NBA - and has yet to top PER = 15.0 (average player). His career PER is 12.9. I think Bargnani has sufficient offensive talent to avoid the bust label - certianly more than the three you mentioned. However, I am SO FREAKING GLAD WE HAVE ODEN INSTEAD OF BARGNANI. Even if Bargnani someday has a PER approaching Oden's rookie PER of 18.1, I'd still rather have Oden.

A good post, but I would like to make a note about PER 15.0 - it most certainly not the average player PER in the NBA - but it is the average production per minute of all the players in the NBA divided by all play-minutes - and because the better players will usually play more - it is easy to make the mistake you made - but PER 15.0 can be thought of as roughly the PER of an average starter in the league - most certainly not the average player.

 

[Boob-No-More]

A good post, but I would like to make a note about PER 15.0 - it most certainly not the average player PER in the NBA - but it is the average production per minute of all the players in the NBA divided by all play-minutes - and because the better players will usually play more - it is easy to make the mistake you made - but PER 15.0 can be thought of as roughly the PER of an average starter in the league - most certainly not the average player.

Not according to the man who invented the formula:

"I've set it up so that the league average, every season, is 15.00"

So, 15.00 is average production for all NBA players. If you are above 15.0, your production (according to Hollinger's formula) is above average. If you are below 15.0, your production is below average.

PER does account for PT and pace differences. So, it's very possible for a player with limited minutes to post a PER above 15.0 - in fact it's very common and one of the flaws of the formula - a guy who plays garbage minutes against other scrubs can have a higher PER than a starter who clearly contributes more against tougher competition.

That said, whe I look at Andrea Bargnani, and take into account everything he does (and doesn't) do - the scoring, the poor shoopting percentages, the weak rebounding, the poor man-to-man post defense, I see an below average NBA player. So, my observations are in agreement with Hollinger's formula in this case. I also see that he has the potential to score more, shoot a higher percentage, and improve his rebounding a little - which would both push his PER above 15.0, and make him an above average NBA player in my opinion.

BNM

 

[BenDavis503]

STDD - Yes. He can and will.

 

[andalusian]

Not according to the man who invented the formula:

"I've set it up so that the league average, every season, is 15.00"

The average of what?

It is not the average per player - but the average per minute played - see "calculating PER" from basketball-reference and notice how the weights are applied to the minutes to create the "average":

The final step is to standardize aPER. First, calculate league average aPER (lg_aPER) using player minutes played as the weights. Then, do the following:

PER = aPER * (15 / lg_aPER)

The step above sets the league average to 15 for all seasons.

If you actually go to Hollinger's personal site - and look at the approximation of what a specific PER means - he sets 15 at "Pretty good player: 15.0" - which is most definitely not the average player in the NBA. See http://www.alleyoop.com/prates.shtm for the way JH breaks it down.

Again, going to the horse's mouth:

In the end, one number sums up the players' accomplishments (the statistical ones, anyway) for that season. I've set it up so that the league average, every season, is 15.00, which produces sort of a handy reference guide

Again - it's the "league average" of "accomplishments" - which tells you that this is the average per minute played, not the players average.

A confusing point, for sure, but that seems to be the nature of the beast (statistics).

 

[oldmangrouch]

Too many people, for too long now have thrown around so promiscously the "BUST" label at or near Oden.

None of them have a fucking clue.

You want to find out what a "bust" center looks like stat-wise look up the numbers for Olowokandi and Kwame and Darko Milicic.

I put bust in quotes as bust in this meaning is a center who was drafted high, didn't pan out as hoped - AND YET - played in the league for years and years. The true busts never make it past their rookie deal.

When you look it up, you see that Greg, hobbling on surgically repaired knee, out of condition from inability to train in the off-season, during his rookie year, had a significantly higher PER than Olowokandi, Kwame or Darko did in any of their very best years.

Just out of curiosity, what label do *you* use for the Sam Bowie or Pervis Ellison type player? I'm sure both put up very nice PERs when they were healthy - they just weren't on the court enough for it to make a difference. From the team's perspective, they were just as much of a wasted draft pick as Kwame or Olowokandi.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Just out of curiosity, what label do *you* use for the Sam Bowie or Pervis Ellison type player? I'm sure both put up very nice PERs when they were healthy - they just weren't on the court enough for it to make a difference. From the team's perspective, they were just as much of a wasted draft pick as Kwame or Olowokandi.

I don't know what their injuries were, but I do know that you are talking about pre-microfracture surgery (at least in common use). Medical technology has improved since then.

 

[Minstrel]

Does Brandon Roy have a Michael Jordan or even a Kobe Bryant "ceiling", for the sake of argument?

No, but Brandon Roy hasn't been evaluated as one of the best talents at his position ever. Oden has.

Or perhaps we should just call every greatest-ever player as Player X's "ceiling" and devalue the entire concept.

I think we should use greatest-ever players as the "ceiling" for greatest-ever prospects, until that prospect shows convincing evidence that the evaluations were wrong!

 

[SheedSoNasty]

Can Greg still be a once in a generation center?

Yes. He's 21 years old.

 

[Elton]

Right now, I believe we have a 7ft Ben Wallace (an "in his prime" Ben Wallace, I mean) with a lot more offensive potential. Can actually make free throws too.

All Time Great? Way too early to say but I lean towards a no. Ain't nothin' wrong with what he already is though

 

[Deebag]

Guys, don't confuse once-in-a-generation with all-time-great. He just has to be the best in a 10-15 year span. And looking at the past 5 years, and forward to the next 5, I'd say he has a good chance at it.

 

[BBert]

another factor is any center's offensive numbers would take a hit if they were surrounded by capable scorers like Greg is... less opportunities = less numbers for every player.

To the OP... I don't see why not. If he's really got his legs/agility back then he's one of the most impressive physical specimens in the league.

STOMP

Seriously.

The answer is "YES."

 

[axs88]

we have a 7ft Ben Wallace (an "in his prime" Ben Wallace, I mean) with a lot more offensive potential. Can actually make free throws too.

7 ft Wallace with offense and FT shooting? So that would make him... a taller Alonzo Mourning? I'm fine with that.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

One thing I saw from Oden at the Fanfest: a Dream Shake attempt. The shot didn't go in, but he did do the shake on Joel, and got a shot off. I'd love to see him work on that some more.

 

[magnifier661]

One thing I saw from Oden at the Fanfest: a Dream Shake attempt. The shot didn't go in, but he did do the shake on Joel, and got a shot off. I'd love to see him work on that some more.

Well I think the first step is for him to stay out of foul trouble. I think the more he can "stay in the game" the more his game will develop. It's too hard to try to get used to the NBA speed, when you are constantly on the bench with foul trouble.

If Oden can average about 30 minutes a game, he will be a dominator by mid season. IMO.