Canzano Is Probably Right - Trade The Expirings......Now

[ABM]

http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/or...f/2010/07/canzano_trail_blazers_next_tar.html

Should the Trail Blazers be successful in their bid to win the $34 million mid-level sweepstakes for free agent guard Wesley Matthews this week, it will mark a small victory for an organization that desperately needs one.

It's a win, but it won't make Portland a contender.

Utah has until next Monday to decide whether to match the offer sheet prepared by the Blazers, and Matthews is a very respectable NBA player. The move would make Portland deeper, tougher, better. But if we're talking about the franchise working its way into deep-playoff relevancy, then Andre Miller and Joel Przybilla need to be traded.

Welcome to the "now-the-good-guys-gotta-go" era of Blazers basketball.

Miller and Pryzbilla have both conducted themselves professionally, worked hard, and given the Blazers a fair shake. But we've reached the point where their contracts are too valuable to hold onto, and the ability to trade $14.4 million in expiring combined contracts ends up as Portland's big move.

In the last eight years we've watched the Blazers unsuccessfully shop the expiring contracts of Arvydas Sabonis, Nick Van Exel, Damon Stoudamire, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Raef LaFrentz. Which is only to say that all the evidence points to the Blazers letting Miller and Przybilla walk away, taking the payroll savings themselves.

That can't happen this time.

Portland gave LaMarcus Aldridge a $60 million extension. Brandon Roy received a maximum contract himself. Those two players, along with the holdovers and draft picks leave the Blazers maxed out on what they can do salary-wise, sitting on the outside of free agency.

Matthews was available to Portland only because they can use the mid-level exception to the salary cap, front load the deal to make it difficult to match, and pray Utah doesn't match. And so while LeBron goes to Miami and the Lakers sign Steve Blake and retain Derek Fisher and Phoenix trades for Hedo Turkoglu, the emphasis for Portland has to be on trading Miller and Przybilla or risk being left behind.

There's a market for those guys. Przybilla, coming off a ruptured patellar tendon, might be enticed with the idea of being bought out immediately. Miller still has enough left to help a contender. But what Portland can't do is wait until February's trade deadline, overplay their hand, and end up diminishing the possibility of landing a star player.

That's what $14.4 million buys today.

Chris Paul anyone?

Of course, we know the Blazers pursued the New Orleans guard in recent weeks. That deal reportedly went as far as including young players such as Nicolas Batum and Jerryd Bayless. And if those discussions have stalled, Portland needs to get active in seeing what other star players might be available.

That's the most troubling part of the gaping hole in the front office. The Blazers are operating without a general manager. And while scouts and the team president can certainly make calls, Portland lacks an experienced, well-connected decision maker. And that's exactly what it's going to take to get this done.

Ugh, right?

We're watching the Blazers interview candidates, and the days of summer are bleeding out. The Heat got better. The Knicks got better. The Bulls got better. The Eastern Conference is loading up, the Lakers added depth, the Suns and Warriors are trying, and I'm left wondering if Portland understands it's about to be left behind.

The Blazers feel a lot like an ambitious race-car operation that has neither a fully-functioning car, nor a driver, nor a mechanic capable of fixing the vehicle.

So what do they have right now aside from a flimsy plan?

Hire a GM. Trade Miller/Przybilla for a star player who can join Roy and Aldridge. Start the season.

Allen's team of advisors at Vulcan Inc. are not basketball people. They're numbers driven. And I suspect they'll view the notion of a couple of expiring contracts as if they were more valuable than a single star player. But it's the idea of an expiring opportunity that troubles me.

It should worry us all.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

Canzano fails to realize there are many more valuable trade assets to gather stars out there. As Wizenheimer on realgm has pointed out, there are multiple teams with huge Traded Player Exceptions out there right now from recent sign and trades, as well as teams left with cap space - that is instant relief; whereas Joel and Andre are next summer relief.

 

[ABM]

...whereas Joel and Andre are next summer relief.

Yeah, but if the player the Blazers really wants is available for Joel/Andre and (..), then why not go for it? Make the other team feel as if we're not simply waiting (with the AMEC/JPEC) for them. I'm all for that bird in the hand stuff.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

Yeah, but if the player the Blazers really wants is available for Joel/Andre and (..), then why not go for it? Make the other team feel as if we're not simply waiting (with the AMEC/JPEC) for them. I'm all for that bird in the hand stuff.

Because it is likely for that combination to be traded they'd be going after a star. If they are going after a star, it is likely other teams would want to go after that newly available star as well. Teams with big TPEs, armed with picks and talent to add to the trade. If you are the team trading the star, you are most likely doing it for monetary relief as well as accumulating young talent - which offer are you going to take? The expiring contracts with young talent that gets you monetary relief next summer, or the TPE which grants you instant monetary relief as well as the young talent?

I'm not saying I don't want the Blazers to after a star, but I'm saying Canzano is trying to stir up the pot by saying this trade needs to be done now and by the time camp starts while failing to mention that many other teams have much more valuable and lucrative offers they can put out at the moment. The prime time to trade AM/JP will be at the trade deadline when more of those teams have used up their TPEs, and as teams who thought they were going to contend start falling off.

 

[mook]

"Trade Przybilla and Miller for a star." There, in eight words, I condensed the entire article.

Good thing we've got Canzano. Next I'm guessing he'll tell Obama, "Create some jobs" and biologists, "Cure cancer." What a relief it is to have John Canzano with such daring vision and insight into the human condition.

 

[ABM]

Because it is likely for that combination to be traded they'd be going after a star. If they are going after a star, it is likely other teams would want to go after that newly available star as well. Teams with big TPEs, armed with picks and talent to add to the trade. If you are the team trading the star, you are most likely doing it for monetary relief as well as accumulating young talent - which offer are you going to take? The expiring contracts with young talent that gets you monetary relief next summer, or the TPE which grants you instant monetary relief as well as the young talent?

I'm not saying I don't want the Blazers to after a star, but I'm saying Canzano is trying to stir up the pot by saying this trade needs to be done now and by the time camp starts while failing to mention that many other teams have much more valuable and lucrative offers they can put out at the moment. The prime time to trade AM/JP will be at the trade deadline when more of those teams have used up their TPEs, and as teams who thought they were going to contend start falling off.

OTOH, New Orleans "almost" traded Paul for what the Blazers could offer them now (Miller, Bayless, and Batum(?) and later (AMEC/JPEC). In some cases, I think fans might expect at least a little value other than names simply dropping off the books.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Yeah, but if the player the Blazers really wants is available for Joel/Andre and (..), then why not go for it? Make the other team feel as if we're not simply waiting (with the AMEC/JPEC) for them. I'm all for that bird in the hand stuff.

You seem to think (like Canzano) that all we have to is snap our fingers and we have all these teams begging to trade with us. It just doesn't work that way. I'm not saying we shouldn't try, but we're one of a number of teams trying to move expiring contracts. And most of them on other teams have more true value than ours.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Maybe the Blazers should hire this Canzano guy to run the team, clearly he knows a ton about the cap and trades and basketball in general. As a bonus he'll be our moral compass too.

 

[ABM]

You seem to think (like Canzano) that all we have to is snap our fingers and we have all these teams begging to trade with us. It just doesn't work that way. I'm not saying we shouldn't try, but we're one of a number of teams trying to move expiring contracts. And most of them on other teams have more true value than ours.

I'm simply saying that, if the Blazers have a deal they want to do "now", why wait? In other words, don't arbitrarily wait until next years TD, simply due to a perceived higher trading value(s).

BTW, I'm not aware of the "number of teams trying to move expiring contracts". Care to share those specifics with me?

 

[B-Roy]

I'm simply saying that, if the Blazers have a deal they want to do "now", why wait? In other words, don't arbitrarily wait until next years TD, simply due to a perceived higher trading value(s).

BTW, I'm not aware of the "number of teams trying to move expiring contracts". Care to share those specifics with me?

Thanks captain obvious.

 

[ABM]

Thanks captain obvious.

Same thing Canzano is saying. Title of this thread. Yada, yada, yada............

 

[The Sebastian Express]

OTOH, New Orleans "almost" traded Paul for what the Blazers could offer them now (Miller, Bayless, and Batum(?) and later (AMEC/JPEC). In some cases, I think fans might expect at least a little value other than names simply dropping off the books.

But they didn't. The teams with the TPEs or capspace would also add value in the form of young talent, like I mentioned, and picks while providing instant relief. An example would be Cleveland trading their TPE and a pick to New Orleans while New Jersey trades Cleveland Devin Harris, trades New Orleans Derrick Favors, Courtney Lee, several picks, and New Orleans trades New Jersey Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor. I am under the assumption that New Jersey still has enough cap space remaining to make this word, especially since they'd get rid of Devin Harris' salary in the process.

New Orleans gets instant cap relief as well as several picks and two young talents. This would be a better offer than expiring contracts that New Orleans would have to pay this season, Bayless and Batum.

 

[Shooter]

"Trade Przybilla and Miller for a star." There, in eight words, I condensed the entire article.

Good thing we've got Canzano. Next I'm guessing he'll tell Obama, "Create some jobs" and biologists, "Cure cancer." What a relief it is to have John Canzano with such daring vision and insight into the human condition.

Why so hard on Canzano? I've certainly not heard anyone else discuss the idea he proposed, and I think it's worth considering. Emotion and "loyalty" might dictate that we keep both Miller and Przybilla, but logic might dictate something else.

 

[The Sebastian Express]

I'd wager most of the fans have been discussing trading Miller and Przybilla since they're both expirings. We talk about it a lot on RealGM, and it was in most of the ideas thrown around for Paul.

 

[barfo]

Why so hard on Canzano? I've certainly not heard anyone else discuss the idea he proposed,

Well, you've been scarce around here lately, so you might have missed the 103493293493 threads we've had about trading Miller and Przybilla for a star.

barfo

 

[Pinwheel1]

]Why so hard on Canzano? I've certainly not heard anyone else discuss the idea he proposed, and I think it's worth considering[/B]. Emotion and "loyalty" might dictate that we keep both Miller and Przybilla, but logic might dictate something else.

"So what do they have right now aside from a flimsy plan? Hire a GM. Trade Miller/Przybilla for a star player who can join Roy and Aldridge. Start the season."

You really have not heard anyone suggest trading Miller and Pryz for Paul? They have to be included to match salaries.

It's just his way of taking a shot at the KP dismissal. How the FUCK does this moron know if they have a flimsy plan? He has no clue. He never has a clue.

 

[mook]

Yep. Seems to me Przybilla and Miller are easily the most likely assets we've been dangling out there. The thing is, we have to get a point guard back in any such deal. A point guard who is better than Andre Miller, or we might as well just keep Andre. There are probably a dozen or so better or equivalent PG's in the league, but other than Paul I don't know of any who have really been mentioned as possible trade candidates.
Devin Harris-- they don't want Miller
Deron Williams -- no way he gets traded
Nash -- they seem to be putting pieces in place around Nash, not looking to move him
Kidd
Westbrook
Baron Davis
Rose

I look down the list of qualified candidates and I see nope, nope, nope, nope. Then you start getting into mediocre PG's around Andre's level, and at that point you are no longer "trading for a star" as Canzano says, but just making lateral moves. Which I guess is ok if the lateral move is a PG who can hit perimeter shots better (and is a worse passer than Andre, hence they are as mediocre). But that's not the kind of guy Canzano says we should go for.

I suggest we go back to New Orleans and ask them for Paul again, only this time say "Pretty please." May not be a brilliantly detailed strategy, but then neither was Canzano's.

 

[ABM]

Yep. Seems to me Przybilla and Miller are easily the most likely assets we've been dangling out there. The thing is, we have to get a point guard back in any such deal. A point guard who is better than Andre Miller, or we might as well just keep Andre. There are probably a dozen or so better or equivalent PG's in the league, but other than Paul I don't know of any who have really been mentioned as possible trade candidates.
Devin Harris-- they don't want Miller
Deron Williams -- no way he gets traded
Nash -- they seem to be putting pieces in place around Nash, not looking to move him
Kidd
Westbrook
Baron Davis
Rose

I look down the list of qualified candidates and I see nope, nope, nope, nope. Then you start getting into mediocre PG's around Andre's level, and at that point you are no longer "trading for a star" as Canzano says, but just making lateral moves. Which I guess is ok if the lateral move is a PG who can hit perimeter shots better (and is a worse passer than Andre, hence they are as mediocre). But that's not the kind of guy Canzano says we should go for.

I suggest we go back to New Orleans and ask them for Paul again, only this time say "Pretty please." May not be a brilliantly detailed strategy, but then neither was Canzano's.

No mention of Parker??

 

[mook]

No mention of Parker??

I forgot about him. But really, I'm not that excited to give up Batum for him, and I don't think the Spurs would go for just Miller/Przybilla/future draft pick or Bayless. Certainly I'd give up Aldridge for him, but again, that's not what Canzano is saying. He's saying we should get a star for Miller/Przybilla. I don't see how to do that for Tony Parker.

 

[Shooter]

Well, you've been scarce around here lately, so you might have missed the 103493293493 threads we've had about trading Miller and Przybilla for a star.

You're right. I haven't been keeping up with all the trade scenarios on this board. I suppose I'm out of the loop in that sense.

 

[STOMP]

Yeah, but if the player the Blazers really wants is available for Joel/Andre and (..), then why not go for it?

what makes you think the player the Blazers really want is available for Joel/Andre? Canzano's fresh out the butt speculations?

They just extended a large offer to someone that I doubt they equate to a difference maker like CPaul, why in the world would you think they'd lack the conviction to move on something that would truly help the club? Just my guess that deals that provide financial relief for the 2011-12 season hold more value after the 2010-11 season ticket plans have been sold and some teams are out of the playoff picture... patience grasshopper

STOMP

 

[ABM]

They just extended a large offer to someone that I doubt they equate to a difference maker like CPaul, why in the world would you think they'd lack the conviction to move on something that would truly help the club?

Perhaps, because they want to be sure the new GM's stamp is on any trade move?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Perhaps, because they want to be sure the new GM's stamp is on any trade move?

No way. I just don't see any way that makes sense. Everything that has happened over the last months suggests that they would go out of their way to make a deal without a GM if it was beneficial to the team. They would love to prove that it was not all kP. It was a team effort and the team is still in tack. They could care less what the new GM thinks. Any new GM will not know the team as well as the current staff.

 

[FlyinSouth]

If nothing can be done to dramatically improve by the trade deadline just ride out Miller for the playoff run, excercise our option for his final year. Possibly re up unless a seperate trade can be worked out, Pryz for a two year, 2nd year team option, and try again the following year when Pryz, Camby and Miller would be all expiring around 25-30 mill.

 

[jlprk]

It's just his way of taking a shot at the KP dismissal.

That sums it all up.

 

[STOMP]

Perhaps, because they want to be sure the new GM's stamp is on any trade move?

whoever that person is to be, their voice doesn't warrant consideration before they take the job. Once they do, they get to work with and around all the decisions made before they assumed that role for the Blazers. Besides, GM is just a title. Anyone given the authority to make personnel decisions for the franchise is the acting GM. I'm sure there are several Blazer management types who'd welcome an increased say in those decisions but as usual their choices will be by committee with coaches ownership scouts and upper management having input.

STOMP

 

[Minstrel]

In the last eight years we've watched the Blazers unsuccessfully shop the expiring contracts of Arvydas Sabonis, Nick Van Exel, Damon Stoudamire, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Raef LaFrentz. Which is only to say that all the evidence points to the Blazers letting Miller and Przybilla walk away, taking the payroll savings themselves.

That can't happen this time.

What Canzano fails to understand (or omits) is that that's what happens almost every time. It's not like Portland has been particularly inept with expiring contracts. It's that expiring contracts have been overvalued by fans and media since the inception of the salary cap. Fans and media seem to think that expiring contracts carry a massive value and can be used fairly easily to grab valuable, expensive players. It happens sometimes, but rarely. Teams are generally unwilling to give up valuable players simply for salary relief or cap space that might be able to be used to...get a valuable player.

So, yes, I agree that Portland should trade their expiring contracts for an impact player. Here's my advice: Portland should win lots of championships.

NBA front office job, please.

 

[MARIS61]

As usual, Canzano is wrong.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

He's only wrong when he opens his mouth...

...anyway, yeah, expiring contracts definitely seem to be hugely overvalued by everyone except the people doing the actual dealing.

 

[hasoos]

What Canzano fails to understand (or omits) is that that's what happens almost every time. It's not like Portland has been particularly inept with expiring contracts. It's that expiring contracts have been overvalued by fans and media since the inception of the salary cap. Fans and media seem to think that expiring contracts carry a massive value and can be used fairly easily to grab valuable, expensive players. It happens sometimes, but rarely. Teams are generally unwilling to give up valuable players simply for salary relief or cap space that might be able to be used to...get a valuable player.

So, yes, I agree that Portland should trade their expiring contracts for an impact player. Here's my advice: Portland should win lots of championships.

NBA front office job, please.

Really? I see other teams turn expiring contracts into valuable players all the time. So explain to me how I am overvaluing expiring contracts when I see other teams make deals for expiring contracts and get good quality players in return, and their expiring contracts are not as valuable as the one's that we have. An expiring contract is exactly that. Nobody is picking it up for the talent behind the contract. They are taking it to shed cap weight. So how is it other teams are picking up talented players for theirs, while Portland sits on their hands and does nothing with theirs?