Chauncey Billups shares his plan to improve Portland Trail Blazers

[andalusian]

sorry, not really buying it

if that unit was so good together on defense, Dame, CJ, and Powell would not have all posted a 126 defensive rating in a series in which the Blazers had a rating of 123.4 with a severely tightened rotation

You are arguing with the NBA's official statistics. It is what it is, if you claim they made a mistake - take it with them, not me. The definite numbers we have from the NBA paint a very clear picture - the issue is not with that group - it is the fact that they can not play together all the time and the rest of the roster is mostly sub-par defensively.

These guys played only 18 minutes per game on average as a unit - and during that time - they were excellent.

 

[andalusian]

this is a good find and probably what Neil keeps trying to sell. But it's not a great sample size and has the caveat of being only against ONE team (that too, one that got swept in the subsequent round).

The sample size from both the regular season + playoffs is significant and not just one team.

So if the premise is that our bench was the biggest problem, have we done ANYTHING to address this?

Yes, removing EK and Melo is an upgrade defensively, but likely lost on offense. Is it enough? Not imho.

Kanter --> Zeller is an upgrade, but every other change has been a downgrade. Unless you see a substantial jump from someone like Nas, our bench issues are still there.

Agree. One more thing that could help is health, of course.

 

[Zach Collins Enthusiast]

this is a good find and probably what Neil keeps trying to sell. But it's not a great sample size and has the caveat of being only against ONE team (that too, one that got swept in the subsequent round).

So if the premise is that our bench was the biggest problem, have we done ANYTHING to address this?

Kanter --> Zeller is an upgrade, but every other change has been a downgrade. Unless you see a substantial jump from someone like Nas, our bench issues are still there.

Don't forget my man CJ Elleby. He is a defensive force!

 

[blazerkor]

The sample size from both the regular season + playoffs is significant and not just one team.



Yes, removing EK and Melo is an upgrade defensively, but likely lost on offense. Is it enough? Not imho.



Agree. One more thing that could help is health, of course.

Will health help? We had our highest winning percentage during the games that CJ and Nurk were hurt. People can throw out strength of schedule but the only thing that kept last season from being an unmitigated disaster was teams not wanting to play the Lakers and therefore intentionally losing to us in the last couple weeks of the season.

 

[wizenheimer]

You are arguing with the NBA's official statistics. It is what it is, if you claim they made a mistake - take it with them, not me. The definite numbers we have from the NBA paint a very clear picture - the issue is not with that group - it is the fact that they can not play together all the time and the rest of the roster is mostly sub-par defensively.

These guys played only 18 minutes per game on average as a unit - and during that time - they were excellent.

ok...I get your point, but I'm not sure what difference it makes. Those 5 can't each play 48 minutes; and they can't play 33 minutes a game with each other. There has to be rotation

and looking at those numbers, I'm finding it really hard to believe that Portland's starters were +33.6 better than Denver's starters; especially considering that CJ was -19 and Simons was +19

 

[andalusian]

ok...I get your point, but I'm not sure what difference it makes. Those 5 can't each play 48 minutes; and they can't play 33 minutes a game with each other. There has to be rotation

100% in agreement here.

and looking at those numbers, I'm finding it really hard to believe that Portland's starters were +33.6 better than Denver's starters; especially considering that CJ was -19 and Simons was +19

I have no idea if Portland's starting unit played all the time they did against Denver's starting unit, but I am not really that surprised that Portland's full-strength starting unit was capable against the Nuggets -2 starters. The problem Portland had and continues to have - is that there is such a big drop-off after that. Portland's roster is very top-heavy and that's an issue.

 

[wizenheimer]

I have no idea if Portland's starting unit played all the time they did against Denver's starting unit, but I am not really that surprised that Portland's full-strength starting unit was capable against the Nuggets -2 starters. The problem Portland had and continues to have - is that there is such a big drop-off after that. Portland's roster is very top-heavy and that's an issue.

sure...that's true

and again, I think rebounding is often overlooked. It will take a hell of a lot of evidence to convince me that going with a pair of forwards who are 6'7 and 6'3 is a good idea, especially when they have a combined rebounding rate of around 8%. That's pathetic

 

[Freshtown]

It’s very healthy that we are putting the expectation on Chauncey to take a first round exit team to the finals in his first season as coach without any roster improvement. Good stuff.

 

[All Net]

Oh, great, it’s miracle time again in Portland. No other organization in the NBA believes in “magical thinking” like we do. The idea that Billups is going to get Lillard and McCollum to play defense is silly. If these guys could play defense—or had any interest in playing defense—they would have done it years ago.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

this is the needle Billups has to thread.

for the 9 years of Stolshey, and especially the 6 years of Dame/CJ, trying to fix the Blazer defense has been like a game of bop-a-mole. Plug one hole, create another; fix one leak, and another leak starts

it will do no good to improve the defense if at the same time the offense drops off by equal measure.

I head a ton of yappity-yap last season about how good the Blazer net-rating was after adding Powell, and getting CJ and Nurkic back. Yet, Portland still finished 29th at the end of the season in defense. Their offense was great. But their net rating was mediocre. And of course, as horrible as the Blazer defense was in the regular season posting a 116.0 rating, in the playoffs they gave up a rating of 123.4. And that was with Kanter averaging less than 10 minutes. That series also demonstrated the major disadvantage of going with a 6'3 SF. To such a point that the Blazers had to switch Powell off of Porter and give the assignment to Dame

The Blazers have to get out of the +/-2.0 realm of net rating. That will keep them at the 7-8 seed/lottery level. The best Portland has done in the Dame/CJ era was the +4.2 net rating in 18-19. But that team had the defense of Nurkic-Aminu-Harkless-Zach-Turner-Curry, and the current team isn't close to that

IMO, too many expectations are riding on Billups being an elite coach in his 1st year as HC and 2nd year of coaching overall

Might help to stay healthy and not have to sign a dude that is pretty much out of the league and expect him to give you 30-35 mins a night?
If Nurk and Roco or CJ go down I won’t expect much.

 

[All Net]

This isn't about Dame and getting players to play with him and "Dame deserves a Championship". It's a culture and Stotts didn't deliver on it defensively. Our whole team was lazy defensively then pointed fingers at why we can't win. Kudos to Oshley for making the change. Shame on Oshley for waiting so long to make it.

Sorry, but I don’t buy it. The idea that the Blazers didn’t play defense because Stotts didn’t stress it is ridiculous. It’s much more likely that Stotts couldn’t get Lillard and McCollum to play defense, so he just made the best of it.

 

[andalusian]

sure...that's true

and again, I think rebounding is often overlooked. It will take a hell of a lot of evidence to convince me that going with a pair of forwards who are 6'7 and 6'3 is a good idea, especially when they have a combined rebounding rate of around 8%. That's pathetic

I am not going to pretend to be good enough to understand the nuances of NBA level basketball - but I work enough with data scientists to be able to read data.

From the first link I sent about the 5 units with enough games / minutes from the entire NBA sorted by defensive rating:

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...easonType=Regular Season&CF=GP*G*15:MIN*G*300

You can see that that unit had a TRB% of 50.9 which is reasonable. They got more rebounds than what they lost. They were not dominant, but they were OK. It is interesting to see that they were very bad in ORB% and very good in DRB% - since it was such a good offensive unit - one suspects that there were not many potential offensive rebounds to take and there is a good chance that they just emphasized going back on D after a shot attempt. On the other hand, their excellent defensive rebound % fits with your narrative that rebounding is very important. Why and how they managed to have such good defensive rebounding - I do not really know, this is where the basketball minds can come into play and analyze it.

 

[Hoopguru]

what are those numbers?

if it's anything to do with defense and it shows CJ as 2nd on the team, it's a busted stat

win/share and there ranking amongst all players.

 

[riverman]

Oh, great, it’s miracle time again in Portland. No other organization in the NBA believes in “magical thinking” like we do. The idea that Billups is going to get Lillard and McCollum to play defense is ludicrous. A leopard cannot change its stripes. If these guys could play defense—or had any interest in playing defense—they would have done it years ago.

bs...I just watched Dame play good defense in the Olympics...defense is a team skill...not a personality trait..it's choreography not isolation...Chauncey did not start his career being a great two way player....he became one ..the idea that you can't coach athletes throughout their careers is a stretch....these guys aren't 40 years old...just watched Luke Longley doc and he talked about how much his game transformed when MJ came back to the Bulls...let's just say he changed his stripes quite a bit...Dame gets better every damned year...respect..pass it on...haven't heard anyone around here crown us champions next year either...making the playoffs is step A for every team in the league...we're no different..nothing "magical" about it...it's a process

 

[Hoopguru]

what are those numbers?

if it's anything to do with defense and it shows CJ as 2nd on the team, it's a busted stat

Players Defense | Stats | NBA.com
https://www.nba.com › Stats Home › Players › Defense

 

[All Net]

bs...I just watched Dame play good defense in the Olympics...defense is a team skill...not a personality trait..it's choreography not isolation...Chauncey did not start his career being a great two way player....he became one ..the idea that you can't coach athletes throughout their careers is a stretch....these guys aren't 40 years old...just watched Luke Longley doc and he talked about how much his game transformed when MJ came back to the Bulls...let's just say he changed his stripes quite a bit...Dame gets better every damned year...respect..pass it on...haven't heard anyone around here crown us champions next year either...making the playoffs is step A for every team in the league...we're no different..nothing "magical" about it...it's a process

So Dame played good defense in the Olympics but hasn’t been able to do it for the last 9 years in Portland? Kind of a head scratcher, isn’t it?

 

[illmatic99]

So Dame played good defense in the Olympics but hasn’t been able to do it for the last 9 years in Portland? Kind of a head scratcher, isn’t it?

lol dame did not play good defense in the Olympics. He was by far the worst defender on team USA and opponents were repeatedly targeting him on every possession.

 

[riverman]

lol dame did not play good defense in the Olympics. He was by far the worst defender on team USA and opponents were repeatedly targeting him on every possession.

disagree...many people noted that he had more impact on defense than on offense in the Olympics but whatever..I thought he was really aggressive on D....I only saw two of his games..the other two I just listened to...

 

[illmatic99]

disagree...many people noted that he had more impact on defense than on offense in the Olympics but whatever..I thought he was really aggressive on D....I only saw two of his games

you can't just say stuff that is blatantly wrong and say "but whatever" haha

 

[riverman]

So Dame played good defense in the Olympics but hasn’t been able to do it for the last 9 years in Portland? Kind of a head scratcher, isn’t it?

Dame was on two top 10 defensive Blazer teams over that stretch...and he's played great defense for parts of games that got us back in them over those 9 years...sometimes resulting in wins...he's never been a 4 qtr a game defender but when we needed to lock in he could do it ...he had too much offensive load to have legs on that side of the ball more often than not..and again..defense is a TEAM skill...it takes 5 guys to defend...we haven't had that for 7 of his 9 seasons

 

[e_blazer]

lol dame did not play good defense in the Olympics. He was by far the worst defender on team USA and opponents were repeatedly targeting him on every possession.

Dame played decent D given that he was playing with an ab injury and the fact that Pop, for some strange reason, wanted them to switch everything. No, Dame doesn’t defend well against 6’10” dudes.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

lol dame did not play good defense in the Olympics. He was by far the worst defender on team USA and opponents were repeatedly targeting him on every possession.

No kidding--how much did Rubio score on him? Wasn't it like a record amount given up by a team USA to an individual opposing player?

 

[riverman]

you can't just say stuff that is blatantly wrong and say "but whatever" haha

I can say that what you said is blatantly wrong just like you can...choices...I disagree with your post...that's what a forum of public opinion is....

 

[riverman]

No kidding--how much did Rubio score on him? Wasn't it like a record amount given up by a team USA to an individual opposing player?

Rubio had an amazing run...and has played with his team for a long, long time now...he beat Dame ..give you that. He beat alot of pt guards in the Olympics...even scored alot.

 

[illmatic99]

No kidding--how much did Rubio score on him? Wasn't it like a record amount given up by a team USA to an individual opposing player?

As did whoever else they switched Dame onto. Dame got benched in the knockout round in multiple games because he was a defensive sieve. How do you get away with saying he played good defense.... haha come on.

Dame played decent D given that he was playing with an ab injury and the fact that Pop, for some strange reason, wanted them to switch everything. No, Dame doesn’t defend well against 6’10” dudes.

he was terrible, come on man. pop benched him. Let's not blow smoke here just to defend an outlandish comment.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

No kidding--how much did Rubio score on him? Wasn't it like a record amount given up by a team USA to an individual opposing player?

Yep. It was probably the most Rubio scored since he scored 51 in the final of the Fiba U16s (to go along with 24 rbs, 12 assists and 7 steals).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

So, to summarize, and correct me if I'm wrong here: Chauncey's big plan is to get Dame to play D?

I hope I will be forgiven for tempering my expectations.

 

[blazerkor]

As did whoever else they switched Dame onto. Dame got benched in the knockout round in multiple games because he was a defensive sieve. How do you get away with saying he played good defense.... haha come on.


he was terrible, come on man. pop benched him. Let's not blow smoke here just to defend an outlandish comment.

He was bad defensively until the gold medal game. If you disagree, you should go back and watch it again. He was locked in that game. He looked great.

 

[riverman]

So, to summarize, and correct me if I'm wrong here: Chauncey's big plan is to get Dame to play D?

I hope I will be forgiven for tempering my expectations.

Chauncey has already answered your question but basically he said his plan is to get the TEAM playing D and everybody has to help ..Dame included...people try to dissect the roster and find flaws but it's the team that is the 5 headed monster ..not one guy..until people get this they'll just beat the dead horse of individual past flaws to death..I temper my expectations for each game...whatever helps folks enjoy the game works

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Chauncey has already answered your question but basically he said his plan is to get the TEAM playing D and everybody has to help ..Dame included...people try to dissect the roster and find flaws but it's the team that is the 5 headed monster ..not one guy..until people get this they'll just beat the dead horse of individual past flaws to death..I temper my expectations for each game...whatever helps folks enjoy the game works

Don't get me wrong, I can't help but get excited, but let's not kid ourselves here: EVERY new coach says two things when they're hired:
1. we're going to run more
2. we're going to play hard-nosed defense