Chris Sheridan says Wiz will likely do Blake/Outlaw for Haywood at last minute

[STOMP]

I don't particularly care for Harrington, he plays like a 3 more than a 4, but considering that Grunfeld gave Agent Zero the contract that he did, I'm not so sure you can give him the benefit of the doubt for having any kind of sense or ability to reasonably evaluate talent.

(FWIW, Harrington is putting up 17/6 with a 17.3 PER, whereas Caron is having a down year and from the sounds of things Haywood is expecting a pretty big payday this coming off-season which is a something the Wizards are probably loathe to give him. If they acquire Harrington then I fully expect them to move Jamison to Cleveland for draft picks and a guy like JJ Hickson or Big Z.

he can't guard starting 3s or 4s adequately which doesn't overcome his decent outside threat. He's an obvious reason his teams have lost.

STOMP

 

[Boob-No-More]

Brendan brings legit 5 size and is a good shotblocker, but he's pretty mediocre to worthless at most everything else.

Interior defense is a HUGE need with Oden and Przybilla out. Haywood is also a better rebounder than anyone on our current active roster, by a significant amount. We're getting killed in the paint and off the glass right now. And, it won't get any easier in the play-offs. I'm all for trading from our surplus (which needs thinning anyway) for someone that addresses areas of need - even if it's just a short term fix to get us through until Greg and Joel are back.

I'm an optimist and think Greg MAY be back for the play-offs and Joel will be back at the start of next season. If we get Haywood, that gets us through to the play-offs, and IF Greg is back, it would be nice to ease him back in as Haywood continues to start and play more minutes. Haywood starting, backed up by Oden gives us a MUCH better chance in the play-offs than Howard starting backed-up by Pendergraph.

does anyone know whether Portland would hold Haywood's Bird rights? That would make him more appealing.

Yes, we would, but I'm not sure it matters. It's not like he's a max. contract guy, so there isn't a lot of motivation for a sign-and-trade. We could do a sign-and-trade with a team that's over the cap and has a player of similar salary they'd like to dump, but would we want somebody another team is looking to "dump"?

BNM

 

[MickZagger]

I'm an optimist and think Greg MAY be back for the play-offs and Joel will be back at the start of next season. If we get Haywood, that gets us through to the play-offs, and IF Greg is back, it would be nice to ease him back in as Haywood continues to start and play more minutes. Haywood starting, backed up by Oden gives us a MUCH better chance in the play-offs than Howard starting backed-up by Pendergraph.

BNM

Since when is it about this year though?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Since when is it about this year though?

I think it's important for the continued growth of our young players that the Blazers:

a) make the play-offs this year
b) do well in the play-offs - ideally advance to the 2nd round, if not, at least put up a good fight

Missing the play-offs, or getting swept in the 1st round would be a step backwards, IMHO and won't do anything to help the confidence and development of our team.

BNM

 

[MickZagger]

If they continue the growth on a different team because we felt like we needed a "rent a big man", it kind of goes against logic. Bayless, Rudy and Batum are still very young and have only shown glimpses of what they can do at the NBA level. Young players finding their way in the league are inconsistent. Say we do go and trade for Haywood, mortgage one of those guys and we miss the playoffs still. Haywood walks at the end of the season knowing that Joel and Oden are coming back. It would make KP look stupid and be disheartening as a fan.

I'm not against getting Haywood, just as long as Batum, Bayless, Cunningham and Rudy aren't one of the pieces shipping out. Blake and a 1st sounds good to me. Maybe add Outlaw, but I think he'll help us immensely in our playoff push in the final 30 games.

 

[Boob-No-More]

If they continue the growth on a different team because we felt like we needed a "rent a big man", it kind of goes against logic. Bayless, Rudy and Batum are still very young and have only shown glimpses of what they can do at the NBA level. Young players finding their way in the league are inconsistent. Say we do go and trade for Haywood, mortgage one of those guys and we miss the playoffs still. Haywood walks at the end of the season knowing that Joel and Oden are coming back. It would make KP look stupid and be disheartening as a fan.

I'm not against getting Haywood, just as long as Batum, Bayless, Cunningham and Rudy aren't one of the pieces shipping out. Blake and a 1st sounds good to me. Maybe add Outlaw, but I think he'll help us immensely in our playoff push in the final 30 games.

The only players I've mentioned trading are:

Blake and Rudy OR Outlaw for Haywood

or Outlaw, Blake, Rudy, and maybe Mills for David Lee

Outlaw and Blake are not young and inexperieneced. Rudy is almost 25. I absolutely would not trade Batum, and would only trade Bayless as part of a package that brought back something MUCH better than Brendan Haywood.

I'm not talking about mortgaging our future in a "win now" move. IMHO, Batum and Bayless are part of our long terms plans, but Rudy isn't. Rudy will never be a starter in Portland as long as Brandon Roy is here, and I think his minutes will decrease as Bayless gets more minutes at back-up SG. IMHO, Rudy is surplus, redundant and we should trade him before his trade value decreases.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

he can't guard starting 3s or 4s adequately which doesn't overcome his decent outside threat. He's an obvious reason his teams have lost.

STOMP

I already said I don't particularly care for him

 

[MickZagger]

The only players I've mentioned trading are:

Blake and Rudy OR Outlaw for Haywood

or Outlaw, Blake, Rudy, and maybe Mills for David Lee

Outlaw and Blake are not young and inexperieneced. Rudy is almost 25. I absolutely would not trade Batum, and would only trade Bayless as part of a package that brought back something MUCH better than Brendan Haywood.

I'm not talking about mortgaging our future in a "win now" move. IMHO, Batum and Bayless are part of our long terms plans, but Rudy isn't. Rudy will never be a starter in Portland as long as Brandon Roy is here, and I think his minutes will decrease as Bayless gets more minutes at back-up SG. IMHO, Rudy is surplus, redundant and we should trade him before his trade value decreases.

BNM

Rudy has the potential to be a 6th man of the year type. I'll take a great 6th man over a half year rental of Haywood any day. Sure Rudy's struggling right now, but you don't give up a talent like Rudy for a guy who's going to play 30 games and isn't a guarantee to get us in the playoffs. I don't think Haywood's going to have that much of an impact and I also don't think no playoffs this year will shatter the young guys confidence. They realize just as much as we do that this was a fluke year and next year will most likely be like the 08-09 season where outside of Oden there really wasn't many injuries.

Rudy's in a shooting slump sure, but he does great things for the team while he's on the court even when he's not scoring. I can live with some head scratching turnovers from him every once in a while, as long as he's making an effort to attack.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Rudy has the potential to be a 6th man of the year type.

I disagree. I don't see that potential at all. He's almost 25 and isn't exactly having a great season. I just don't see much, if any upside. I see Bayless as the better player a year from now - and four years younger. Bayless has shown improvement this season, while Rudy has actually regressed.

I'll take a great 6th man over a half year rental of Haywood any day.

I would, too. I just don't see Rudy as that guy.

I also don't think no playoffs this year will shatter the young guys confidence. They realize just as much as we do that this was a fluke year and next year will most likely be like the 08-09 season where outside of Oden there really wasn't many injuries.

It's not just confidence. That is a factor, but it's the combination of experience and the confidence it brings that's important.

Bayless barely got to play in the play-offs last year (11 minutes). Same for Batum (63 minutes). Webster didn't. I want these young guys, along with Cunnmingham to get some play-off experience THIS year, so come the 2011 play-offs they won't be overwhelmed by the experience.

I'd love to see Oden back on the roster in the play-offs, but even if he isn't, I want him there with the team, sitting behind the bench experiencing the intensity of the play-offs. Assuming we have fewer injury problems next season, I want this team going into the play-offs prepared for success and not in awe of the experience.

BNM

 

[Draco]

What is the point of trading for Haywood if he is expiring? Then next year if we resign him we have 3 centers? Seems pretty short sighted and stupid, but maybe I'm missing the bigger picture. We may not even make the playoffs this year, why do this?

Joel's career is over. Oden is a hell of a center when healthy, but I would like to have a backup. Brenda isn't the best starter, but like Joel was he could be a pretty damn good backup center playing behind a guy with injury and foul concerns.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Joel's career is over.

Why do you say that? The injury he suffered is not a career ending injury. Joel's game has never relied on athleticism. He's not that old. I see no reason why his career would be over.

BNM

 

[Shooter]

Still want to trade Blake? He had 18 points and 12 assists tonight. The Phoenix broadcasters were raving about him.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Still want to trade Blake? He had 18 points and 12 assists tonight. The Phoenix broadcasters were raving about him.

Yep, trade him while his value is high. One game doesn't change my mind about him as a player. For every one good game he's had this year, he's had 10 bad ones.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

I always say, sell high, but I sort of doubt KP trades him ... in fact I think he trades Jerryd this off-season and resigns Blake.

 

[EGame]

Trading Bayless is one thing, but to resign Blake is moronic. If he does such a thing I will have lost all faith in this guy as a General Manager. He should be demoted to just a draft scouter.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Trading Bayless is one thing, but to resign Blake is moronic. If he does such a thing I will have lost all faith in this guy as a General Manager. He should be demoted to just a draft scouter.

I didn't say that's what I would do, I'm just saying it's what I suspect he'll do ... hmmm ... in fact I think I'm going to bookmark this thread and come back to it in the summer.

 

[EGame]

No, I realize it isn't what you said you would do, merely a guess by you which is why I said if KP resigned Blake he should be demoted to scouting the college players. He really does not seem fit to be a General Manager.

 

[Nikolokolus]

No, I realize it isn't what you said you would do, merely a guess by you which is why I said if KP resigned Blake he should be demoted to scouting the college players. He really does not seem fit to be a General Manager.

We agree then.

 

[KingSpeed]

I would throw up if that deal went through.

 

[andalusian]

If Blake is not moved by the trade deadline - he will be resigned. For next year - it makes sense to trade miller and his expiring $7m.

 

[Blaze01]

Don't get your hopes up here...The Wizards will assuredly find a better deal than what POR is offering by the dealine...Either that or Pritchard will suddenly get cold feet...

 

[STOMP]

Sure, many bigs don't hit their peak until around 30, but here's a few you may have heard of:

Dikembe Mutombo (four best years of his career starting at age 30)
Hakeem Olajuwon (four best years starting at age 30. DPOY at 30 and 31, MVP at 31, Finals MVP at 31 and 32)
Karl Malone (best years at 33 and 34, MVP at 33 and 35)
Marcus Camby (2nd and 3rd best years of his career at 31 and 32)
Rick Smits (best two years at 32 and 31)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (best year at 30)
Dale Davis (best two years at 32 and 30)
Antonio Davis (best two years at 30 and 32)
Ben Wallace (2nd and 3rd best years at 31 and 30)
Kevin Willis (4 best years at 29, 31, 35, 30)

That's just a small sample. I just checked a few players I knew played their best ball in their 30s. I'm sure if you check journeyman bigmen, you would find many more. My original quote was many big men don't peak until their late 20s or early 30s. If you include late 20s, there are many, many more (like Shaq, Robert Parrish, David Robinson, Kevin McHale, etc.).

thanks for getting back to me. My question was about your claim of multiple players who didn't hit their stride until their 30s. I don't know why you'd list guys like Ben Wallace, Kevin Willis, or Camby who enjoyed their high water marks in their 20s in trying to prove that point. Many of the players you listed (like McHale, DDavis, Smits, Big Z) performed at equal or at least hairsplitting comparable levels in their 20s... hell, Z's 3rd best year was his rookie season at age 22. In listing "late 20's guys" you included guys like Shaq & Parrish, so I guess you're saying everything past 25 is late 20s... to me late 20s would start like age 28.

Dikembe and Malone are good examples but I still think your claim that this is a common occurrence is pretty shaky. What I have seen as a common trend is guys bumping up their production when they're in a contract year only to slump back to their mean the following season.

I was just pointing out that Haywood having a career year at 30 is not a rare occurence. I didn't (and don't) intend to compile a list of all bigs who peaked at, or around, the age of 30. Feel free to add to the list

Haywood isn't having a career year at age 30. His best year was at age 28 and his next best was at 24... going by PER this is his 4th best season. Dude is in a contract year though.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywobr01.html

STOMP

 

[Boob-No-More]

Haywood isn't having a career year at age 30. His best year was at age 28 and his next best was at 24... going by PER this is his 4th best season. Dude is in a contract year though.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywobr01.html

Sure looks like a career year to me. He's averaging 10.3 RPG. His previous career best is 7.3 RPG. He did average slightly more PPG at 28 (10.6 vs. 9.8), but he only averaged 7.2 RPG that season. For a center that's not known for his scoring, I think 9.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 2.1 BPG is a better season than 10.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 1.7 BPG.

Do you really consider his averages of 7.0 PPG and 5.0 PPG at the age of 24 better than his current averages of 9.8 PPG and 10.3 RPG at the age of 30? His PER may have been higher, but he was in a lesser role and his per game averages were a lot less.

BNM

 

[STOMP]

Sure looks like a career year to me. He's averaging 10.3 RPG. His previous career best is 7.3 RPG. He did average slightly more PPG at 28 (10.6 vs. 9.8), but he only averaged 7.2 RPG that season. For a center that's not known for his scoring, I think 9.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 2.1 BPG is a better season than 10.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 1.7 BPG.

Do you really consider his averages of 7.0 PPG and 5.0 PPG at the age of 24 better than his current averages of 9.8 PPG and 10.3 RPG at the age of 30? His PER may have been higher, but he was in a lesser role and his per game averages were a lot less.

yes he does have a bigger role now then 2 seasons ago getting 5 minutes more per game and there is some merit to that, but there is also merit to having decidedly better overall per minute stats and doing so on a winner rather then one of the worst teams in the league. They lost in 6 game in round 1 that year, but dude did average 30 minutes and a 19.7 PER. Comparing that to the games of garbage time he is racking up this 17-33 disaster...

what I don't get is why what a center is known for should matter 1 iota in evaluating what sort of season they had? I'm all for a guy improving on their weaknesses and don't see why that doesn't warrant equal recognition to improving on their strengths a similar amount.

STOMP

 

[Boob-No-More]

what I don't get is why does what a center is known for should matter 1 iota in evaluating what sort of season they had? I'm all for a guy improving on their weaknesses and don't see why that doesn't warrant equal recognition to improving on their strengths a similar amount.

I value defense and rebounding in big men. Scoring is a bonus for a guy like Brendan Haywood, Joel Przybilla, Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, etc. He's currently scoring at a near career high and his RPG is almost 50% higher than his previous career best. If you don't want to call that a career year, that's your choice. If you think the year he scored less, rebounded less and blocked fewer shots in fewer minutes was a better year, that's, again, your choice. I respectfully disagree.

BNM

 

[STOMP]

I value defense and rebounding in big men. Scoring is a bonus for a guy like Brendan Haywood, Joel Przybilla, Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutombo, etc. He's currently scoring at a near career high and his RPG is almost 50% higher than his previous career best. If you don't want to call that a career year, that's your choice. If you think the year he scored less, rebounded less and blocked fewer shots in fewer minutes was a better year, that's, again, your choice. I respectfully disagree.

I value defense and rebounding from the center position, but I also value other things that contribute to winning hoops... winning hoops is the goal right? Scoring points, getting to the line, Assist/TOs, stuff like that all matters if the goal is to win.

Per minute his rebounding is up 18% this year over 2007/8 and he's also blocking 9% more shots. But his scoring is down 22%, as is his FTA's 21%. I think that matters as does his now shooting 9% worse from the line... you've got to hit your free throws. Considering the comparison of the circumstances of the teams that those stats were accumulated on and it's curious that you'd claim 09-10 season as clearly his peak. Though I'd disagree, I think you have an argument that this season to 07-08 was equal, but his best? To each their own indeed.

STOMP