Christmas wishes for Blazers

[UKRAINEFAN]

BE is asking this of staff. Here is one by Brian Freeman that I concur with:

"My Christmas wish for the Portland Trail Blazers, is that they, once and for all, make a commitment to which direction they are going. If they want to be a good team that is trying to win a championship, then the team should make an attempt at going that direction. If the team wants to rebuild, okay I can live with that, lets make moves to make that happen. But even as the Blazers stand now, with an impressive 19-14 record, they are still treading water as a playoff team, without any signs of more success on the horizon.

For the last 3 years, Portland has kept the majority of the team together and it has produced overachieving records for the most part, but hasn't produced even a sniff of a title run or anything close. At the same team, their young guys have low ceilings and help is not on the way.

I am okay which direction Portland goes, but hovering as a mediocre talent team with a great coach and a star player is getting boring and honestly, I feel bad for Lillard. Blow it up or go all in on a Jimmy Butler or a Kawhi Leonard. (Obviously those avenues are closed, but I’m hoping for something in that realm). Trade draft picks, mortgage the future, just do something! I dont know how long I can go through another trade deadline or offseason like we saw last year."

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Here is another good one:
Peter Sampson.

My wish for the Blazers is consistency. They’re in that in-between space where they can beat anyone in the league, but are also capable of putting up a stinker on any given night. I don’t think I’m asking too much, and I’ve been really good this year. Can I just get some consistent play?

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Here is another one I have heard a lot on here:
Next up is Ryne Buchanan.

This year, if I could have one Trail Blazers-related Christmas wish, it would be for a rotational shakeup to take place.

I’ve written about this before, but seeing as things remain as inconsistent as ever, it bears repeating. The current bench unit is far too streaky to warrant keeping rookies Anfernee Simonsand Gary Trent Jr., or even Wade Baldwin IV from seeing relevant playing time. Simons and Trent, especially, would appear to factor more into the team’s future than the likes of Nik Stauskasand Seth Curry. Simply put, Sauce and Curry haven’t performed well enough to justify preparing the team for the future.

If the Blazers were winning games, it would be a different story. The case for the current group is that they probably give you the best chance to win now. However, as the losses pile up, it would make more sense to me to start actively preparing for the years ahead, rather than going all-in on what is likely a futile effort this season.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Decide what the fuck they want to do. Rebuild, or surround Dame with another star somehow.

Purgatory blows

 

[wizenheimer]

BE is asking this of staff. Here is one by Brian Freeman that I concur with:

"My Christmas wish for the Portland Trail Blazers, is that they, once and for all, make a commitment to which direction they are going. If they want to be a good team that is trying to win a championship, then the team should make an attempt at going that direction. If the team wants to rebuild, okay I can live with that, lets make moves to make that happen. But even as the Blazers stand now, with an impressive 19-14 record, they are still treading water as a playoff team, without any signs of more success on the horizon.

good take and the only thing I'd dispute is the notion that 19-14 is an "impressive record". That's horseshit and the kind of outside narrative that gives cover to Olshey's inertia. 19-14 equals 47 wins. In the last 5 seasons, 56 teams have exceeded or matched 47 wins. That's 11 teams a year, more than 1/3 of the league and that's hardly impressive; and it's no coincidence that currently, 11 teams have beaten or matched Portland's 19 wins. The biggest takeaway though is that only 16 teams make the playoffs so that 56 number shouldn't be calibrated against all 150 teams over 5 seasons, it should be measured against the 80 teams that have made the playoffs. That makes 47 wins a long way from impressive

For the last 3 years, Portland has kept the majority of the team together and it has produced overachieving records for the most part, but hasn't produced even a sniff of a title run or anything close. At the same team, their young guys have low ceilings and help is not on the way.

again, probably a quibble, but "overachieving" is a function of expectations. 2015-16 was overachievement considering the dissolution of the Aldridge team. It was a feel-good close to the season with a season ending hot-streak and an asterisked 1st round win, but that feel-good momentum led directly to the massive idiocy of the off-season

2016-17 was underachievement. And last season, considering that Portland, two seasons after 44 wins and a 2nd round appearance, only upped their wins by 5 followed by getting swept in the playoffs, there wasn't much odor of overachievement to be sniffed. Instead, it was just Portland being exposed for the pretenders they were

I do agree on the low ceilings for the young guys

I am okay which direction Portland goes, but hovering as a mediocre talent team with a great coach and a star player is getting boring and honestly, I feel bad for Lillard. Blow it up or go all in on a Jimmy Butler or a Kawhi Leonard. (Obviously those avenues are closed, but I’m hoping for something in that realm). Trade draft picks, mortgage the future, just do something! I dont know how long I can go through another trade deadline or offseason like we saw last year."

I'll disagree with that paragraph because it implies that equal weight should be assigned to going young or supporting Dame. Lillard has meant too much to the franchise to just "blow it up" without at least trying to build an actual contender around him. Competent management would be doing everything they could to make it so. But instead of that, we see a GM that seems more interested in serving his own ego than in leveraging a strong team around Dame.

it's just a pisser that in the last 2 seasons we've seen Paul George traded, Jimmy Butler moved twice, and Kawihi Leonard traded while Olshey was busy putting out lists of all the Blazers who were "untouchable" and building a bench around the 'talents' of Turner...which apparently means no Ed Davis

 

[riverman]

Same Christmas wish for the Blazers every year..."Stay Healthy!"

 

[BonesJones]

good take and the only thing I'd dispute is the notion that 19-14 is an "impressive record". That's horseshit and the kind of outside narrative that gives cover to Olshey's inertia. 19-14 equals 47 wins. In the last 5 seasons, 56 teams have exceeded or matched 47 wins. That's 11 teams a year, more than 1/3 of the league and that's hardly impressive; and it's no coincidence that currently, 11 teams have beaten or matched Portland's 19 wins. The biggest takeaway though is that only 16 teams make the playoffs so that 56 number shouldn't be calibrated against all 150 teams over 5 seasons, it should be measured against the 80 teams that have made the playoffs. That makes 47 wins a long way from impressive



again, probably a quibble, but "overachieving" is a function of expectations. 2015-16 was overachievement considering the dissolution of the Aldridge team. It was a feel-good close to the season with a season ending hot-streak and an asterisked 1st round win, but that feel-good momentum led directly to the massive idiocy of the off-season

2016-17 was underachievement. And last season, considering that Portland, two seasons after 44 wins and a 2nd round appearance, only upped their wins by 5 followed by getting swept in the playoffs, there wasn't much odor of overachievement to be sniffed. Instead, it was just Portland being exposed for the pretenders they were

I do agree on the low ceilings for the young guys



I'll disagree with that paragraph because it implies that equal weight should be assigned to going young or supporting Dame. Lillard has meant too much to the franchise to just "blow it up" without at least trying to build an actual contender around him. Competent management would be doing everything they could to make it so. But instead of that, we see a GM that seems more interested in serving his own ego than in leveraging a strong team around Dame.

it's just a pisser that in the last 2 seasons we've seen Paul George traded, Jimmy Butler moved twice, and Kawihi Leonard traded while Olshey was busy putting out lists of all the Blazers who were "untouchable" and building a bench around the 'talents' of Turner...which apparently means no Ed Davis

Its impressive given how hard our schedule has been. Against an average schedule were 20-13 or 21-12. We have an easy remaining schedule.

 

[hoopsjock]

Reid Forgrave of CBSSports did one of these for each team in the NBA with his power rankings this week. For the Blazers he was a lot more optimistic than most:

"The Blazers' present: Depth on the wing. Any team that's starting Jake Layman or Mo Harkless on the wing, as the Blazers have done this season, can't have realistic championship dreams. But I don't think the Blazers are all that far away. They haven't hit a major win in the draft since CJ McCollum (although I love what Zach Collins can become). One big-time wing could really elevate this team."

It's always a bit surprising to see a national writer think that we are closer than just about everyone in here, including myself.

 

[Labinot41]

Its impressive given how hard our schedule has been. Against an average schedule were 20-13 or 21-12. We have an easy remaining schedule.

Not really, according to tankathon.com we have the 14th toughest remaining schedule from now

 

[BonesJones]

Not really, according to tankathon.com we have the 14th toughest remaining schedule from now
View attachment 23921

We've also had the 4th hardest schedule in the league. I see a lot of eastern teams below us.

 

[wizenheimer]

Its impressive given how hard our schedule has been. Against an average schedule were 20-13 or 21-12. We have an easy remaining schedule.

the schedule hasn't been as hard as many claim, not after adjusting for the fact Portland has played 18 games at home and only 15 on the toad. The Clippers are tied with Portland and their home/road ratio is reversed

also, Portland's remaining SOS isn't that easy. It's harder than average at .502 and is likely even harder when adjusted for home/road

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

 

[Labinot41]

the schedule hasn't been as hard as many claim, not after adjusting for the fact Portland has played 18 games at home and only 15 on the toad. The Clippers are tied with Portland and their home/road ratio is reversed

also, Portland's remaining SOS isn't that easy. It's harder than average at .502 and is likely even harder when adjusted for home/road

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

This is what i'm saying. Especially the next two weeks are brutal

 

[BlayZa]

Dear Thor,

You may or may not have noticed that Meyers Leonard has taken to using the nickname of "The Hammer". Now, many people seem to like this name as his play this year has been vastly improved and is rapidly approaching him justifying nearly half of what we pay him, but some of us have seen this movie before and require a little more help in believing.

Therefore, my wish is thus........

Please either come down to Earth and strike Meyers down with your actual hammer OR imbue him with a permanent set of Thunder God Balls that he may continue this path to redemption and actually resemble something close to a serviceable big man for our team.

Also if you are still listening, I'd love Ed Davis back - please feel free to hammer Swaggy, Turner or the a fore metioned Meyers into oblivion to make room for this request.

BlayZa @ Earth @ South Pacific @ New Zealand @ Auckland

 

[BonesJones]

the schedule hasn't been as hard as many claim, not after adjusting for the fact Portland has played 18 games at home and only 15 on the toad. The Clippers are tied with Portland and their home/road ratio is reversed

also, Portland's remaining SOS isn't that easy. It's harder than average at .502 and is likely even harder when adjusted for home/road

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Theyve had the 4th hardest schedule in the league. That's definitely hard. They have an average remaining schedule, but below average in regards to Western Conference teams.

 

[wizenheimer]

Theyve had the 4th hardest schedule in the league. That's definitely hard. They have an average remaining schedule, but below average in regards to Western Conference teams.

the SOS you're citing sure seems to be from BBREF. which is based entirely on the winning% of opponents played. It does not account for home/road ratio, nor does it account for if a team has managed to play teams with higher winning percentages at home or teams with lower percentages on the road.

another thing it doesn't adjust for is when the various opponents were played. For instance, Portland got to play the Lakers twice during the Lakers 1st ten games when they weren't playing well and were 4-6. Since then they've gone 15-8 as Lebron has adjusted to the Lakers, and they've adjusted to him. In other words, Portland played the Lakers when they were 0-0, 4-5, & 7-6 (11-11) with 2 of the games at home, yet, their bbref SOS gives them credit for playing 3 games against a 19-14 Laker team.

Portland beat Houston when they were playing horribly, then turned around and lost to them when they were playing a little better, In other words, Portland played them when they were 1-4 and when they were 11-14 (12-18), yet Portland's SOS credits the Blazers for twice playing a team that's 18-15 (12-18).

The Celtics are currently 20-13 (.606), but Portland beat them, at home, when they were 7-6 (.538); yet the Blazers will get credit on their SOS for playing a .606 team.

the context for early season SOS is that there is always context that makes early season SOS noisy and conclusions based on it suspect, especially when you're making conclusions about a team that has played 3 more home games then road games

 

[illmatic99]

1. Good health. We can't sustain any injuries.

2. Some semblance of help for Dame.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Starting caliber forwards.

A NEW GM.

 

[BonesJones]

the SOS you're citing sure seems to be from BBREF. which is based entirely on the winning% of opponents played. It does not account for home/road ratio, nor does it account for if a team has managed to play teams with higher winning percentages at home or teams with lower percentages on the road.

another thing it doesn't adjust for is when the various opponents were played. For instance, Portland got to play the Lakers twice during the Lakers 1st ten games when they weren't playing well and were 4-6. Since then they've gone 15-8 as Lebron has adjusted to the Lakers, and they've adjusted to him. In other words, Portland played the Lakers when they were 0-0, 4-5, & 7-6 (11-11) with 2 of the games at home, yet, their bbref SOS gives them credit for playing 3 games against a 19-14 Laker team.

Portland beat Houston when they were playing horribly, then turned around and lost to them when they were playing a little better, In other words, Portland played them when they were 1-4 and when they were 11-14 (12-18), yet Portland's SOS credits the Blazers for twice playing a team that's 18-15 (12-18).

The Celtics are currently 20-13 (.606), but Portland beat them, at home, when they were 7-6 (.538); yet the Blazers will get credit on their SOS for playing a .606 team.

the context for early season SOS is that there is always context that makes early season SOS noisy and conclusions based on it suspect, especially when you're making conclusions about a team that has played 3 more home games then road games

Sure, if you keep stretching things im sure they can fit you're narrative. Fact is, weve played the Celtics, Raptors, Bucks (x2), Pacers...

We havent played the Bulls, Hawks, Nets, or Cavs though. Pur schedule has been much tougher than it'll be.

 

[wizenheimer]

Sure, if you keep stretching things im sure they can fit you're narrative. Fact is, weve played the Celtics, Raptors, Bucks (x2), Pacers...

We havent played the Bulls, Hawks, Nets, or Cavs though. Pur schedule has been much tougher than it'll be.

let's remember how this exchange started...I pushed back against the assertion at BE that 19-14 was an "impressive" record. I don't buy the stuff about the alleged 4th toughest SOS because as I said, I think there's too much noise in that stat this early in a season

the point being that after 33 games, a 27-6 record would be impressive or even a 24-11 record could be impressive. But I'm not homer enough to actually believe a record that is only 2.5 games above .500 is impressive. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs about the definition of 'impressive'...all I know is that I sure haven't been impressed with Portland

 

[BonesJones]

let's remember how this exchange started...I pushed back against the assertion at BE that 19-14 was an "impressive" record. I don't buy the stuff about the alleged 4th toughest SOS because as I said, I think there's too much noise in that stat this early in a season

the point being that after 33 games, a 27-6 record would be impressive or even a 24-11 record could be impressive. But I'm not homer enough to actually believe a record that is only 2.5 games above .500 is impressive. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs about the definition of 'impressive'...all I know is that I sure haven't been impressed with Portland

Meh, it's not noise. Our schedule against the Eastern Conference has been very hard. We've played 5 of our 10 games against the top 5 teams and only 1 of our 10 games against the bottom 5 teams. The West is pretty packed so that's not really meaningful, but it's trending towards tough based off of common expectations.

I'm not saying it's impressive either, just providing context. I think this team needs a shakeup from the top down, and bad. Hopefully Jody is smart enough.

 

[wizenheimer]

Meh, it's not noise. Our schedule against the Eastern Conference has been very hard. We've played 5 of our 10 games against the top 5 teams and only 1 of our 10 games against the bottom 5 teams. The West is pretty packed so that's not really meaningful, but it's trending towards tough based off of common expectations.

I'm not saying it's impressive either, just providing context. I think this team needs a shakeup from the top down, and bad. Hopefully Jody is smart enough.

ok...and really, I don't think we were that far apart on this. I have seen enough over the years that I don't trust SOS numbers this early in a season. I'm more titled toward home/road records at this point as barometers

 

[KingSpeed]

Same Christmas wish for the Blazers every year..."Stay Healthy!"

Yes!!!

 

[KingSpeed]

the schedule hasn't been as hard as many claim, not after adjusting for the fact Portland has played 18 games at home and only 15 on the toad. The Clippers are tied with Portland and their home/road ratio is reversed

also, Portland's remaining SOS isn't that easy. It's harder than average at .502 and is likely even harder when adjusted for home/road

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

We haven’t played the Bulls, Cavs, or Hawks yet. We also have a game against Knicks left and a few against the Suns. That’s why our schedule is the 4th hardest. We haven’t played the crappy teams.