CJ McCollum projections for 2017-18 (1 Viewer)

[mook]

McCollum compared to Ray Allen, Curry, Dame and Klay Thompson at age 24 and age 25. It'll be really interesting to see if his growth in scoring will continue this year with a full season of Nurkic. Interestingly, his scoring was fairly consistent across all months, even during the last 20 games after Nurk was added.

Last year CJ shot better than Dame from 3, from 2, from the line--he's just a flat-out more accurate shooter statistically. You could argue that Dame gets a little more defensive pressure, but I don't think the difference is all that much.

Dame took 7.7 threes/game last year. I think he was trying to establish himself as a superstar and cement a spot on the All Star team. He actually took 8.8 after we got Nurk (and didn't improve on accuracy)!

At this point I think Stotts needs to have a long talk with Dame about being more of a facilitator and focusing on the pick and roll, and leaving the ridiculous long bombs in reserve. Challenge him to make CJ the team's scoring leader.

 

[stampedehero]

Interesting viewpoint. However, I think Stotts wants dependent scorers per game and his reliance on the point/scoring guard roles would be dictated by an opposing teams' D. If any change is coming, it's a larger scoring share with Nurk and a higher percentage of big guy in the paint scoring.

 

[SIeepwalker]

I've thought about it before. Maybe we would be better with CJ as the leading scorer and Dame upping his assist numbers (at the expense of going back to something like 20ppg)

 

[GrandJury]

Cj is so nice and definitely needs to shoot the most on the team. I love how he's not a chucker and his efficiency is always off the charts

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I've thought about it before. Maybe we would be better with CJ as the leading scorer and Dame upping his assist numbers (at the expense of going back to something like 20ppg)

Agreed, and I think several of us were saying the same much of last year. I think Dame knows it too.

 

[dviss1]

His numbers will depend on if we get Melo or not.

 

[chzbrgr]

McCollum compared to Ray Allen, Curry, Dame and Klay Thompson at age 24 and age 25. It'll be really interesting to see if his growth in scoring will continue this year with a full season of Nurkic. Interestingly, his scoring was fairly consistent across all months, even during the last 20 games after Nurk was added.

Last year CJ shot better than Dame from 3, from 2, from the line--he's just a flat-out more accurate shooter statistically. You could argue that Dame gets a little more defensive pressure, but I don't think the difference is all that much.

Dame took 7.7 threes/game last year. I think he was trying to establish himself as a superstar and cement a spot on the All Star team. He actually took 8.8 after we got Nurk (and didn't improve on accuracy)!

At this point I think Stotts needs to have a long talk with Dame about being more of a facilitator and focusing on the pick and roll, and leaving the ridiculous long bombs in reserve. Challenge him to make CJ the team's scoring leader.

I've thought about it before. Maybe we would be better with CJ as the leading scorer and Dame upping his assist numbers (at the expense of going back to something like 20ppg)

While I agree I like CJ more as a scorer for all the reasons mentioned here, Dame is not a facilitator. He has a high usage rate and because the ball is constantly in his hands he gets some decent assist numbers but overall dame is not that great of a passer. I dont have stats to back this up only my eye (I'm sure BNM will cook something up if he agrees with me) but I've always seen cj as the more creative passer. Dame just doesnt set defenders up for assists quite like CJ and while I like the idea of Cj being the leading scorer, those two are natural born killers who want to score every time down the floor, and telling one of them to be something else would be a mistake IMO. They seem to really like playing together as they are, why mess with a good thing?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Me at the end of the 2015-16 season:

I'm gonna give it to Dame this year but I bet next year CJ will be the better player; he's special too.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

McCollum compared to Ray Allen, Curry, Dame and Klay Thompson at age 24 and age 25. It'll be really interesting to see if his growth in scoring will continue this year with a full season of Nurkic. Interestingly, his scoring was fairly consistent across all months, even during the last 20 games after Nurk was added.

Last year CJ shot better than Dame from 3, from 2, from the line--he's just a flat-out more accurate shooter statistically. You could argue that Dame gets a little more defensive pressure, but I don't think the difference is all that much.

Dame took 7.7 threes/game last year. I think he was trying to establish himself as a superstar and cement a spot on the All Star team. He actually took 8.8 after we got Nurk (and didn't improve on accuracy)!

At this point I think Stotts needs to have a long talk with Dame about being more of a facilitator and focusing on the pick and roll, and leaving the ridiculous long bombs in reserve. Challenge him to make CJ the team's scoring leader.

Some interesting things from that comparison:
Curry's DRtg is surprisingly good. Maybe because they always put him on the other team's worst scorer?

CJ's defense is NOT good. I always circle back to the conviction that we have a ceiling on how good this team can be with such a poor defensive backcourt.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The annoying thing is that this is probably also the year that Devin Booker passes CJ by.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The annoying thing is that this is probably also the year that Devin Booker passes CJ by.

By what measure? His efficiency was basically identical year 1 to year 2. You think Booker is going to suddenly become a significantly better shooter?

 

[Minstrel]

Some interesting things from that comparison:
Curry's DRtg is surprisingly good. Maybe because they always put him on the other team's worst scorer?

That probably helps, but Curry has turned himself into a decent defender. His problem is, and will always be, size. But, IMO, he plays with good technique and effort and he has great instincts for getting deflections and steals. His size and lack of pure athleticism limits his ability as a one-on-one defender, but he's a pretty good team defender, so he's either an overall asset to their defensive scheme or, at least, not a liability.

One stark difference that I see between Curry and our two starting guards is that Curry, whether he's on the ball or off it, he's always keeping his head on a swivel, watching for screeners and reacting. He has good awareness for that. Lillard and McCollum, meanwhile, generally lock in to the ball and die on every screen set against them. That tends to force unfavorable switches, whereas Curry is better able to work around the screen because he sees it coming and not force an unfavorable switch.

 

[Minstrel]

Last year CJ shot better than Dame from 3, from 2, from the line--he's just a flat-out more accurate shooter statistically. You could argue that Dame gets a little more defensive pressure, but I don't think the difference is all that much.

I don't think it's so much that Lillard faces more defensive pressure as Lillard takes significantly harder shots. Some of that is a self-inflicted wound and he should be working for better shots, but some of it his Curry-like ability to stretch defenses to a breaking point. McCollum is more like Klay--he's very efficient at taking conventional shots. Lillard is more like Curry, though not as good--he takes the shots that defenses struggle to be able to account for and it warps them. I think if Lillard only took the kinds of shots McCollum takes, his percentages would rise. It's hard to say whether the defense-warping ability is worth the lower efficiency, since he isn't Curry.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

By what measure? His efficiency was basically identical year 1 to year 2. You think Booker is going to suddenly become a significantly better shooter?

I think he's going to be a better all-round player, if he's not already. He's clearly the Sun's star (that sounds funny) already.

 

[GrandJury]

Me at the end of the 2015-16 season:

You called it Cj is better

 

[dviss1]

The annoying thing is that this is probably also the year that Devin Booker passes CJ by.

No it's not. He's a chucker on a sorry team. That's the only reason for his numbers.

 

[GrandJury]

The annoying thing is that this is probably also the year that Devin Booker passes CJ by.

Very similar players

 

[GrandJury]

No it's not. He's a chucker on a sorry team. That's the only reason for his numbers.

Whoa a chucker? I understand your loyalty to all things Blazers but come on now Booker is a pure efficient scorer

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Whoa a chucker? I understand your loyalty to all things Blazers but come on now Booker is a pure efficient scorer

Efficient? You're going to have to support that claim.

 

[Minstrel]

Whoa a chucker? I understand your loyalty to all things Blazers but come on now Booker is a pure efficient scorer

He's actually not a very efficient scorer--his TS% (which accounts for free throws and three-pointers) was only .531 (after .535 last year) which isn't great. McCollum's TS% was .585--much better. Booker's turnover rate is also higher. Another point of reference is that his Offensive Rating only checked in at 103 while McCollum's was 114.

I think McCollum is type of player Booker will eventually be, but it's definitely fair to call him a "chucker" at this point.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

He's actually not a very efficient scorer--his TS% (which accounts for free throws and three-pointers) was only .531 (after .535 last year) which isn't great. McCollum's TS% was .585--much better. Booker's turnover rate is also higher. Another point of reference is that his Offensive Rating only checked in at 103 while McCollum's was 114.

I think McCollum is type of player Booker will eventually be, but it's definitely fair to call him a "chucker" at this point.

That may be fair. I might be getting caught up in the hype and the fact that he seems to be killing it when I see him (which isn't often). He's also ridiculously young. How's his defense?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think he's going to be a better all-round player, if he's not already. He's clearly the Sun's star (that sounds funny) already.

Aside from free-throw rate, there is not a single advanced metric that favored Booker last year. For him to be better all-around, wouldn't have have to be better in something first?

 

[Minstrel]

That may be fair. I might be getting caught up in the hype and the fact that he seems to be killing it when I see him (which isn't often). He's also ridiculously young. How's his defense?

By reputation and stats, terrible. Which, unfortunately, is another reason I think he'll be a McCollum type player. McCollum is probably better than he is defensively, but I expect Booker to improve. He was solid in college, so at least some ability is there, though it's obviously harder in the NBA.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Aside from free-throw rate, there is not a single advanced metric that favored Booker last year. For him to be better all-around, wouldn't have have to be better in something first?

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Fair enough, although to be fairer, you'd have to find stats for CJ aged 20.

 

[dviss1]

Whoa a chucker? I understand your loyalty to all things Blazers but come on now Booker is a pure efficient scorer

Compared to CJ he is not.

 

[mook]

Aside from free-throw rate, there is not a single advanced metric that favored Booker last year. For him to be better all-around, wouldn't have have to be better in something first?

View attachment 15875

Well, it's not an advanced metric (in fact it's as basic a metric as it gets) but I think any Phoenix fan would point to age.

Booker was 20 and CJ was 25. Booker may not be better yet, but the dude proved a lot more than CJ did 2 years later.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Fair enough, although to be fairer, you'd have to find stats for CJ aged 20.

I'm sorry--did I miss where you were saying that this would be the year Booker passes CJ's senior year at Lehigh, or that Booker might already be a better all-around player than CJ was when he beat Duke in the NCAA tournament? I foolishly assumed that we were simply talking about both players' ability in 2017.

 

[theprunetang]

CJ will get his 50/40/90 split this year. Mark my words.

 

[GrandJury]

He's actually not a very efficient scorer--his TS% (which accounts for free throws and three-pointers) was only .531 (after .535 last year) which isn't great. McCollum's TS% was .585--much better. Booker's turnover rate is also higher. Another point of reference is that his Offensive Rating only checked in at 103 while McCollum's was 114.

I think McCollum is type of player Booker will eventually be, but it's definitely fair to call him a "chucker" at this point.

That's fair

 

[GrandJury]

CJ will get his 50/40/90 split this year. Mark my words.

I can see that he almost had it this year

The question I want to know can Lillard finally shoot over 45% from the field