CJ McCollum projections for 2017-18 (1 Viewer)

[mook]

I don't think it's so much that Lillard faces more defensive pressure as Lillard takes significantly harder shots. Some of that is a self-inflicted wound and he should be working for better shots, but some of it his Curry-like ability to stretch defenses to a breaking point. McCollum is more like Klay--he's very efficient at taking conventional shots. Lillard is more like Curry, though not as good--he takes the shots that defenses struggle to be able to account for and it warps them. I think if Lillard only took the kinds of shots McCollum takes, his percentages would rise. It's hard to say whether the defense-warping ability is worth the lower efficiency, since he isn't Curry.

I think that's a very fair point. Lillard does have a little of Curry's "gravity" when it comes to altering offenses, but he's maybe Neptune while Curry is Jupiter launching shots from clear out in Pluto.

We've got a nice Eastern European sun, though, who everybody else should play off of no matter how far out they can shoot. It's fashionable to talk about the gravity of 25 foot shooters, but we should play the ball into the middle much more and let CJ and Dame create off that. Too many shots last year came from Dame in the Oort Cloud, and they were ice cold.

 

[julius]

The annoying thing is that this is probably also the year that Devin Booker passes CJ by.

He'd have to make a HUGE jump from last year to next year if he were to pass CJ.

CJ was close to the 50-40-90 group, Booker isn't close. That isn't to say Devin isn't and won't be a good player. This just sounds like one of the players you pick to follow and romanticize their ability or stats (see: Boban).

The most likely way that Devin passes CJ is in league wide fan popularity, which doesnt mean much since most fans are idiots.

 

[chzbrgr]

I can see that he almost had it this year

The question I want to know can Lillard finally shoot over 45% from the field

Whoa whoa whoa lets not get ahead of ourselves here rook lol

But a serious note though, if he just cut out the 3 times per game he throws up a cold 35 footer he could do it. Shot selection is where I think Dame can improve the most. He is never going to be a plus defender, but if Stotts can get him to shoot a smarter and make the right play instead of being the hero this year, he can score the same amount or more without using as much energy on that end.

 

[dviss1]

I can see that he almost had it this year

The question I want to know can Lillard finally shoot over 45% from the field

Stay on topic....

 

[Minstrel]

We've got a nice Eastern European sun, though, who everybody else should play off of no matter how far out they can shoot. It's fashionable to talk about the gravity of 25 foot shooters, but we should play the ball into the middle much more and let CJ and Dame create off that. Too many shots last year came from Dame in the Oort Cloud, and they were ice cold.

Yeah, if Nurkic can generate more good shots inside, it'll be a lot less defensible for Lillard to be taking moonshots at a lower efficiency. But I disagree with the implication that a center of gravity near the hoop lessens the need for deep shots. Lillard's gravity is still a weapon and if he can force defenses to guard out to 25 feet, it geometrically increases the amount of floor space the defense has to guard (since it's a two-dimensional space) which opens up more room for everyone, including Nurkic.

This year should be fun in seeing how/if Lillard and Nurkic can twist defenses until they break. It's like a poor man's version of Golden State's Curry/Durant proposition, though with a very different form.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I'm sorry-

I forgive you.

 

[BrunoSOC]

Cj about to have his carrer year!

 

[mook]

This year should be fun in seeing how/if Lillard and Nurkic can twist defenses until they break. It's like a poor man's version of Golden State's Curry/Durant proposition, though with a very different form.

Our only hope of trying to compete with GS is that Nurk stretches defenses farther by playing closer to the hoop than Durant. Durant is scary at 15 feet from the rim, but so is Nurkic at 5 feet.

 

[Boob-No-More]

CJ will get his 50/40/90 split this year. Mark my words.

Damn you, you stole my thunder! My bold prediction was going to be that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum would become the 8th official member of the 50/40/90 club. I had planned to start a thread on this exact topic a could days ago, but got busy and didn't get around to it

I have posted it several times, but C.J. has improved ALL of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons. His FG%, 2FG%, 3FG%, FT%, eFG% and TS% have all improved every year he's been in the league. That's damn near impossible to do, but he's done it.

What makes that even more impressive is he's done that while his role and number of shot attempts in each area have also increased. Often you will see a player improve his scoring efficiency when he becomes more selective and takes fewer shots.

The year C.J. won MIP he went from a back up averaging 6.8 ppg in 15.7 mpg to a starter averaging 20.8 ppg in 34.7 mpg. His increase in scoring wasn't just due to an increase in minutes. His PT rose by a little over 2x (2.2), but his scoring increased by over 3x (3.1). That's a huge jump in scoring efficiency - all while moving from a back up to a starter and No. 2 option.

And, his improved shooting percentages last season were even greater than they were the year he won MIP. Because he played comparable minutes and his scoring "only" rose from 20.8 to 23.0 ppg most people don't realize that C.J. actually improved more (in terms of shooting percentages) last year that he did the year before when he won MIP.

Just look at his improved FT shooting. In 2014-15, he was a very below average, for a guard, .699 FT shooter. Two years later he led the whole damn league in FT% at .912. I don't ever recall seeing another player who went from being a below 70% FT shooter to later leading the league in FT shooting.

This consistent improvement in his shooting is a testament to how hard C.J. works on his game in the off season, and also how smart he is about it. Whatever he's doing, it's providing consistent improvement.

So, even robbed of my thunder, I will boldly predict that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum will become the 8th member of the exclusive 50/40/90 club.

I posted the link above, but I'm going to repost it here:

50-40-90 Club

This is a great article that shows just how exclusive this club is. There are currently only seven members: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitski (lockout shortened season), Steve Nash (4 times), Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, with Bird and Nash being the only players to accomplish the feat more than once.

Curry's 50-40-90 season is especially impressive given the number of 3-pointers he attempted (and made). His 886 3FG attempts is over 500 more than the second most on the list and his 402 3FG made is nearly 5x the official qualifying criterion of 82 made 3FGs. Keep in mid the "50" is overall FG%, not 2FG%. Players who take a lot of 3FGs tend to have a lower FG% because if they are making less 50% of their 3 pointers it drags their overall FG% down below the 50% cutoff line.

If C.J. does make the 50-40-90 club he will likely be second only to Curry in terms of made 3FGs. Nash is currently second with 179 made 3FGs. C.J. has made more than that each of the last two seasons (197 and 185).

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Damn you, you stole my thunder! My bold prediction was going to be that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum would become the 8th official member of the 50/40/90 club. I had planned to start a thread on this exact topic a could days ago, but got busy and didn't get around to it

I have posted it several times, but C.J. has improved ALL of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons. His FG%, 2FG%, 3FG%, FT%, eFG% and TS% have all improved every year he's been in the league. That's damn near impossible to do, but he's done it.

What makes that even more impressive is he's done that while his role and number of shot attempts in each area have also increased. Often you will see a player improve his scoring efficiency when he becomes more selective and takes fewer shots.

The year C.J. won MIP he went from a back up averaging 6.8 ppg in 15.7 mpg to a starter averaging 20.8 ppg in 34.7 mpg. His increase in scoring wasn't just due to an increase in minutes. His PT rose by a little over 2x (2.2), but his scoring increased by over 3x (3.1). That's a huge jump in scoring efficiency - all while moving from a back up to a starter and No. 2 option.

And, his improved shooting percentages last season were even greater than they were the year he won MIP. Because he played comparable minutes and his scoring "only" rose from 20.8 to 23.0 ppg most people don't realize that C.J. actually improved more (in terms of shooting percentages) last year that he did the year before when he won MIP.

Just look at his improved FT shooting. In 2014-15, he was a very below average, for a guard, .699 FT shooter. Two years later he led the whole damn league in FT% at .912. I don't ever recall seeing another player who went from being a below 70% FT shooter to later leading the league in FT shooting.

This consistent improvement in his shooting is a testament to how hard C.J. works on his game in the off season, and also how smart he is about it. Whatever he's doing, it's providing consistent improvement.

So, even robbed of my thunder, I will boldly predict that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum will become the 8th member of the exclusive 50/40/90 club.

I posted the link above, but I'm going to repost it here:

50-40-90 Club

This is a great article that shows just how exclusive this club is. There are currently only seven members: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitski (lockout shortened season), Steve Nash (4 times), Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, with Bird and Nash being the only players to accomplish the feat more than once.

Curry's 50-40-90 season is especially impressive given the number of 3-pointers he attempted (and made). His 886 3FG attempts is over 500 more than the second most on the list and his 402 3FG made is nearly 5x the official qualifying criterion of 82 made 3FGs. Keep in mid the "50" is overall FG%, not 2FG%. Players who take a lot of 3FGs tend to have a lower FG% because if they are making less 50% of their 3 pointers it drags their overall FG% down below the 50% cutoff line.

If C.J. does make the 50-40-90 club he will likely be second only to Curry in terms of made 3FGs. Nash is currently second with 179 made 3FGs. C.J. has made more than that each of the last two seasons (197 and 185).

BNM

Nash is particularly impressive with 4 official seasons and 2 near misses, and all in his 30's, no less. Also (obviously) 50/40/90 over those 6 seasons combined (50.9, 44.1, 91.8), with a cumulative TS% of 62.7%. Phenomenal numbers and phenomenal consistency.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nash is particularly impressive with 4 official seasons and 2 near misses, and all in his 30's, no less. Also (obviously) 50/40/90 over those 6 seasons combined (50.9, 44.1, 91.8), with a cumulative TS% of 62.7%. Phenomenal numbers and phenomenal consistency.

And yet there are people who claim he didn't deserve those MVP awards. He was doing this at the same time he was leading the league in assists and leading his team to the best record in the league.

BNM

 

[GrandJury]

Damn you, you stole my thunder! My bold prediction was going to be that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum would become the 8th official member of the 50/40/90 club. I had planned to start a thread on this exact topic a could days ago, but got busy and didn't get around to it

I have posted it several times, but C.J. has improved ALL of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons. His FG%, 2FG%, 3FG%, FT%, eFG% and TS% have all improved every year he's been in the league. That's damn near impossible to do, but he's done it.

What makes that even more impressive is he's done that while his role and number of shot attempts in each area have also increased. Often you will see a player improve his scoring efficiency when he becomes more selective and takes fewer shots.

The year C.J. won MIP he went from a back up averaging 6.8 ppg in 15.7 mpg to a starter averaging 20.8 ppg in 34.7 mpg. His increase in scoring wasn't just due to an increase in minutes. His PT rose by a little over 2x (2.2), but his scoring increased by over 3x (3.1). That's a huge jump in scoring efficiency - all while moving from a back up to a starter and No. 2 option.

And, his improved shooting percentages last season were even greater than they were the year he won MIP. Because he played comparable minutes and his scoring "only" rose from 20.8 to 23.0 ppg most people don't realize that C.J. actually improved more (in terms of shooting percentages) last year that he did the year before when he won MIP.

Just look at his improved FT shooting. In 2014-15, he was a very below average, for a guard, .699 FT shooter. Two years later he led the whole damn league in FT% at .912. I don't ever recall seeing another player who went from being a below 70% FT shooter to later leading the league in FT shooting.

This consistent improvement in his shooting is a testament to how hard C.J. works on his game in the off season, and also how smart he is about it. Whatever he's doing, it's providing consistent improvement.

So, even robbed of my thunder, I will boldly predict that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum will become the 8th member of the exclusive 50/40/90 club.

I posted the link above, but I'm going to repost it here:

50-40-90 Club

This is a great article that shows just how exclusive this club is. There are currently only seven members: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitski (lockout shortened season), Steve Nash (4 times), Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, with Bird and Nash being the only players to accomplish the feat more than once.

Curry's 50-40-90 season is especially impressive given the number of 3-pointers he attempted (and made). His 886 3FG attempts is over 500 more than the second most on the list and his 402 3FG made is nearly 5x the official qualifying criterion of 82 made 3FGs. Keep in mid the "50" is overall FG%, not 2FG%. Players who take a lot of 3FGs tend to have a lower FG% because if they are making less 50% of their 3 pointers it drags their overall FG% down below the 50% cutoff line.

If C.J. does make the 50-40-90 club he will likely be second only to Curry in terms of made 3FGs. Nash is currently second with 179 made 3FGs. C.J. has made more than that each of the last two seasons (197 and 185).

BNM

Fantastic write up. It's not hard to see Cj being a top 10 player very soon and easily the best player we have on the team

 

[theprunetang]

Damn you, you stole my thunder! My bold prediction was going to be that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum would become the 8th official member of the 50/40/90 club. I had planned to start a thread on this exact topic a could days ago, but got busy and didn't get around to it

I have posted it several times, but C.J. has improved ALL of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons. His FG%, 2FG%, 3FG%, FT%, eFG% and TS% have all improved every year he's been in the league. That's damn near impossible to do, but he's done it.

What makes that even more impressive is he's done that while his role and number of shot attempts in each area have also increased. Often you will see a player improve his scoring efficiency when he becomes more selective and takes fewer shots.

The year C.J. won MIP he went from a back up averaging 6.8 ppg in 15.7 mpg to a starter averaging 20.8 ppg in 34.7 mpg. His increase in scoring wasn't just due to an increase in minutes. His PT rose by a little over 2x (2.2), but his scoring increased by over 3x (3.1). That's a huge jump in scoring efficiency - all while moving from a back up to a starter and No. 2 option.

And, his improved shooting percentages last season were even greater than they were the year he won MIP. Because he played comparable minutes and his scoring "only" rose from 20.8 to 23.0 ppg most people don't realize that C.J. actually improved more (in terms of shooting percentages) last year that he did the year before when he won MIP.

Just look at his improved FT shooting. In 2014-15, he was a very below average, for a guard, .699 FT shooter. Two years later he led the whole damn league in FT% at .912. I don't ever recall seeing another player who went from being a below 70% FT shooter to later leading the league in FT shooting.

This consistent improvement in his shooting is a testament to how hard C.J. works on his game in the off season, and also how smart he is about it. Whatever he's doing, it's providing consistent improvement.

So, even robbed of my thunder, I will boldly predict that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum will become the 8th member of the exclusive 50/40/90 club.

I posted the link above, but I'm going to repost it here:

50-40-90 Club

This is a great article that shows just how exclusive this club is. There are currently only seven members: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitski (lockout shortened season), Steve Nash (4 times), Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, with Bird and Nash being the only players to accomplish the feat more than once.

Curry's 50-40-90 season is especially impressive given the number of 3-pointers he attempted (and made). His 886 3FG attempts is over 500 more than the second most on the list and his 402 3FG made is nearly 5x the official qualifying criterion of 82 made 3FGs. Keep in mid the "50" is overall FG%, not 2FG%. Players who take a lot of 3FGs tend to have a lower FG% because if they are making less 50% of their 3 pointers it drags their overall FG% down below the 50% cutoff line.

If C.J. does make the 50-40-90 club he will likely be second only to Curry in terms of made 3FGs. Nash is currently second with 179 made 3FGs. C.J. has made more than that each of the last two seasons (197 and 185).

BNM

I love you.

 

[handiman]

Nash was a little like Stockton. Both were such good playmakers, the average fan has a hard time remembering how good they were at shooting.

 

[theprunetang]

Damn you, you stole my thunder! My bold prediction was going to be that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum would become the 8th official member of the 50/40/90 club. I had planned to start a thread on this exact topic a could days ago, but got busy and didn't get around to it

I have posted it several times, but C.J. has improved ALL of his shooting percentages for four straight seasons. His FG%, 2FG%, 3FG%, FT%, eFG% and TS% have all improved every year he's been in the league. That's damn near impossible to do, but he's done it.

What makes that even more impressive is he's done that while his role and number of shot attempts in each area have also increased. Often you will see a player improve his scoring efficiency when he becomes more selective and takes fewer shots.

The year C.J. won MIP he went from a back up averaging 6.8 ppg in 15.7 mpg to a starter averaging 20.8 ppg in 34.7 mpg. His increase in scoring wasn't just due to an increase in minutes. His PT rose by a little over 2x (2.2), but his scoring increased by over 3x (3.1). That's a huge jump in scoring efficiency - all while moving from a back up to a starter and No. 2 option.

And, his improved shooting percentages last season were even greater than they were the year he won MIP. Because he played comparable minutes and his scoring "only" rose from 20.8 to 23.0 ppg most people don't realize that C.J. actually improved more (in terms of shooting percentages) last year that he did the year before when he won MIP.

Just look at his improved FT shooting. In 2014-15, he was a very below average, for a guard, .699 FT shooter. Two years later he led the whole damn league in FT% at .912. I don't ever recall seeing another player who went from being a below 70% FT shooter to later leading the league in FT shooting.

This consistent improvement in his shooting is a testament to how hard C.J. works on his game in the off season, and also how smart he is about it. Whatever he's doing, it's providing consistent improvement.

So, even robbed of my thunder, I will boldly predict that in 2017-18 C.J. McCollum will become the 8th member of the exclusive 50/40/90 club.

I posted the link above, but I'm going to repost it here:

50-40-90 Club

This is a great article that shows just how exclusive this club is. There are currently only seven members: Larry Bird (twice), Mark Price, Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitski (lockout shortened season), Steve Nash (4 times), Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, with Bird and Nash being the only players to accomplish the feat more than once.

Curry's 50-40-90 season is especially impressive given the number of 3-pointers he attempted (and made). His 886 3FG attempts is over 500 more than the second most on the list and his 402 3FG made is nearly 5x the official qualifying criterion of 82 made 3FGs. Keep in mid the "50" is overall FG%, not 2FG%. Players who take a lot of 3FGs tend to have a lower FG% because if they are making less 50% of their 3 pointers it drags their overall FG% down below the 50% cutoff line.

If C.J. does make the 50-40-90 club he will likely be second only to Curry in terms of made 3FGs. Nash is currently second with 179 made 3FGs. C.J. has made more than that each of the last two seasons (197 and 185).

BNM

Didn't Meyers have a 50/40/90 season, but he didn't qualify based on shots made or games played or something?

Talk about regression.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nash was a little like Stockton. Both were such good playmakers, the average fan has a hard time remembering how good they were at shooting.

Of course, Stockton is the career leader in assists by a huger margin, but he is also the career leader in steals by an equally large margin. People who didn't see him play don't realize he was also a great defender.

I think his durability is also overlooked. He played in all 82 games 16 times (as well as all 50 games in the 1999-2000 seasn) and never missed a playoff game. Counting playoffs,. he appeared in 1686 of a possible 1708 games. In 19 seasons, he played in every regular season and every playoff game 17 times.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Didn't Meyers have a 50/40/90 season, but ur didn't qualify based on shots made or Ganges played or something?

Talk about regression.

He didn't come close to qualifying. The qualifying standards are:

300 made FG
82 made 3FG
125 made FT

Meyers totals were:
125 made FG
47 made 3FG
30 made FT

Still, I'd gladly take that Meyers over 2016-17 Meyers. He also rebounded well that year (and the year before) and played well in the MEM series.

Then we fired Kim Hughes...

BNM

 

[dviss1]

And yet there are people who claim he didn't deserve those MVP awards. He was doing this at the same time he was leading the league in assists and leading his team to the best record in the league.

BNM

And, subtract him from that team and what do you have?

You have the IDIOTS from NBA2K putting that team on the video game WITHOUT Nash...

Yeah... That team is SHIT without him.

 

[handiman]

Of course, Stockton is the career leader in assists by a huger margin, but he is also the career leader in steals by an equally large margin. People who didn't see him play don't realize he was also a great defender.

There's a reason why I didn't bring up defense when saying Nash and Stockton were similar.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

At nearly an hour it's less "highlights" than just lights.

 

[riverman]

I hope we have 6-7 rotation players in double figures scoring...and CJ doesn't have t0 score 30 to win

 

[BonesJones]

I hope we have 6-7 rotation players in double figures scoring...and CJ doesn't have t0 score 30 to win

Who is that 6 or 7 that have a chance to score double figures?

 

[riverman]

Who is that 6 or 7 that have a chance to score double figures?

We were lucky to have 2 or 3 last season so.....that's a good question....starters plus 6 man plus backup center.....great teams seem to have that balance..

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Who is that 6 or 7 that have a chance to score double figures?

Dame, CJ, Turner, Mo, Nurk, and...Swanigan?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I would have bet $20 this forum was the nerdiest thing about the Blazers.

I would have lost.

Epic.

 

[riverman]

Dame, CJ, Nurk,Chief,ET,Mo,Swanigan/Vonleh

 

[BonesJones]

Dame, CJ, Nurk,Chief,ET,Mo,Swanigan/Vonleh

Very wishful thinking. I think we'll have 4, maximum.
Those guys would combine for ~110ppg if we had 7 average double digits.

 

[H.C.]

I'm less concerned about Lillard jacking shots from 30 ft. Than I am Harkless/Aminu/Vonleh/Nards actually forcing their man to guard them.
Simply because there were times where Lillard jacking that 30 footer was a better offensive possession than running a set and allowing the defense to double.

To stay on topic ~ CJ will shoot a higher % 17-18 across the board due to having another player to play off of.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Very wishful thinking. I think we'll have 4, maximum.

You do know that we had 5 last year, right, with 2 others less than 1.5 ppg short?

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Very wishful thinking. I think we'll have 4, maximum.
Those guys would combine for ~110ppg if we had 7 average double digits.

Player averages do not add up to the team average.