CJ's third year is a mirror image of Lillard's second

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mook

mook

The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen
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I'm probably one of the few people who think CJ may wind up being the better player in our back court in a couple of years. Although CJ is technically in his third year, he was so little used in his first two years that I think it's a pretty fair comparison to take a look at how he's doing now vs Lillard in his second season. It's ludicrous how similar the stats are. CJ shoots a higher percentage and DL gets more free throws and assists, but otherwise....

CJ's a pretty special player, and he's only going to get better.
 
Given that Lillard was an All Star with those stats, I guess we know who the real snub was this year.
 
Looking over real plus minus (RPM) stats and on/off court stats this morning I was thinking the same thing. In particular CJ's defensive analytics are much higher. He rates superior to Hendo and Crabbe on defense. Offensively he has a number of higher percentages than Dame; although Dame has clearly been superior on that end with the eye test and raw stats. It's remarkable with Dame playing at an MVP level CJ has potential to exceed him in so many areas. Here are some on court off court numbers:

CJ on court offensive rating per 100 possessions (ORTG) is 108.2. With him off court the team is 107.2 for a net of +1.0
Dame on ORTG 110.3 off 103.1 net of +7.2
CJ DRTG 105.8 off 109.7 net -3.9 (great)
Dame DRTG 108.3 off 104.1 +4.2 (terrible)

Total those up and lineups with CJ on the floor outscore opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions. With Dame we only outscore opponents by 3.0.

CJ offensive RPM is 9th of 95 among NBA SG's - (91st percentile)
Dame offensive RPM 5/82 - (94%)
CJ defensive RPM 27/95 - (72%)
Dame defensive RPM 72/82 - (12%) OUCH!
CJ total RPM 7/95 - (93%)
Dame total RPM 11/82 - (87%)

So there is an arugment despite Damian's insane season CJ has actually been the more valuable player. I would disagree with that; but with CJ being a year younger and having basically two less years of starters minutes? We have a hell of a future with our backcourt.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/on-off/
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM
 
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Wizard Mentor said:
I don't disagree, but what should we be looking at instead?
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Draco said:
Total those up and lineups with CJ on the floor outscore opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions. With Dame we only outscore opponents by 3.0.
Click to expand...

How does that take into account their overlapping play? I assume it doesn't, so to rephrase the question, how would you account for their +/- per 100 possession stats both when they're on the floor together and when it's one or the other? Even the latter would be tricky, because CJ gets a lot of his "solo" minutes against reserves.
 
I don't think there's any chance CJ ends up better than Damian. I wouldn't mind being wrong though.
 
handiman said:
How does that take into account their overlapping play? I assume it doesn't, so to rephrase the question, how would you account for their +/- per 100 possession stats both when they're on the floor together and when it's one or the other? Even the latter would be tricky, because CJ gets a lot of his "solo" minutes against reserves.
Click to expand...

It doesn't differentiate between CJ playing with or without Dame. CJ's on court numbers are for the 2134 minutes he's played and the off court are the 905 minutes he hasn't.

This link shows the lineup details for the various 5 man units.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/lineups/
 
Natebishop3 said:
People seriously need to stop looking at RPM.
Click to expand...

I find it very interesting. I'm sure others do as well. If you have something better I'd rather you contribute it than criticizing what I post. There are advantages and disadvantages to every stat.
 
Draco said:
I find it very interesting. I'm sure others do as well. If you have something better I'd rather you contribute it than criticizing what I post. There are advantages and disadvantages to every stat.
Click to expand...

How is that being critical of your post? I didn't even quote your post. I don't really care for the stat, and I'm making a statement in general that I wish people wouldn't use it. I've seen it cited quite a bit lately, but as others have pointed out, we don't even really know how they calculate it.
 
Natebishop3 said:
People seriously need to stop looking at RPM.
Click to expand...

over the next few years a lot of different statistical measurements will be coming out that factor in player movement, lineups, chemistry (yes- chemistry) - things that cannot as of yet be captured- as that starts to evolve these junk stats that ESPN throws out will be a laughingstock. No stat - as of yet accurately quantifies a players true contribution- however with machine learning and the capacity to to analyze levels of data that were never available until now- we may actually be able to see something develop that can quantify these things conceptually.
 
Now that the season is virtually over, I thought it'd be worth looking at the stats again. If anything, CJ has gained ground.

In the 5 games in April he's at 24ppg, .563 3pt%, .525 fg%. So he's in a really nice groove entering the playoffs.
 
Yep, CJ has had a heck of a second season (full minutes), and has been swish3ing lick a mad man lately.

Given that Lillard relies on a very physical, brute force blow-by game, and CJ has the crafty, shake 'n bake moves ;
I could see CJ having slightly extended peak years - as his game is not as predicated on first step/speed as much as Lillards is.

I've been really impressed with CJs intellect and maturity, also. He already pretty much plays like a vet - look forward to seeing his crafty moves when he actually is one.
 
WillG said:
Yep, CJ has had a heck of a second season (full minutes), and has been swish3ing lick a mad man lately.

Given that Lillard relies on a very physical, brute force blow-by game, and CJ has the crafty, shake 'n bake moves ;
I could see CJ having slightly extended peak years - as his game is not as predicated on first step/speed as much as Lillards is.

I've been really impressed with CJs intellect and maturity, also. He already pretty much plays like a vet - look forward to seeing his crafty moves when he actually is one.
Click to expand...

He kind of reminds me of Tony Parker with his ability to slither into open midrange shots. Maybe not quite as clever as Parker in his prime, but far better three point range.

Hard to believe TP is only 33.
 
WillG said:
Yep, CJ has had a heck of a second season (full minutes), and has been swish3ing lick a mad man lately.

Given that Lillard relies on a very physical, brute force blow-by game, and CJ has the crafty, shake 'n bake moves ;
I could see CJ having slightly extended peak years - as his game is not as predicated on first step/speed as much as Lillards is.

I've been really impressed with CJs intellect and maturity, also. He already pretty much plays like a vet - look forward to seeing his crafty moves when he actually is one.
Click to expand...

CJ is honestly more Curry than Lillard.
 
Honestly, we just need 3 and D players at basically every position, with one extra guy who can create his own shot off the bench. And really it's more the D we need in our acquisitions than the 3.

Call me crazy but CJ could be a 28 ppg scorer when he's in his prime. When he starts adding the ability to draw fouls to his other tools, watch out. He needs to spend this summer watching tape of James Harden.
 
Yeah agree Mook we need to surround these guys with defensive players. We already have a top 6 offense their first year together. CJ has great shot selection and gets such high percentage looks. He has superior shooting percentages than Dame at every distance except within 3 feet. The team ran great when CJ started at PG in place of Dame; I can't fathom how some still don't respect CJ ability as a PG. We saw Dame make improvements basically every year his first 4 seasons. Can't wait to see what CJ adds next year.

The biggest offseason personnel need is improved defense.
 
mook said:
Now that the season is virtually over, I thought it'd be worth looking at the stats again. If anything, CJ has gained ground.

In the 5 games in April he's at 24ppg, .563 3pt%, .525 fg%. So he's in a really nice groove entering the playoffs.
Click to expand...

I'm in the camp I personally believe Cj is slightly better player than Lillard. Lillard by far is the better leader which propels him imo to take the OVERALL position of whose better, that I agree on. But as far as efficiency wise and where CJ is in his career, he has to be looked at slightly better than Lillard. Just wait till next year when CJ learns to get more free throws
 
mook said:
Honestly, we just need 3 and D players at basically every position, with one extra guy who can create his own shot off the bench. And really it's more the D we need in our acquisitions than the 3.

Call me crazy but CJ could be a 28 ppg scorer when he's in his prime. When he starts adding the ability to draw fouls to his other tools, watch out. He needs to spend this summer watching tape of James Harden.
Click to expand...
He's closer to Curry than Harden, I think. Steph has trouble getting to the line as well -- until this season, he's been stuck in the 3-4 FTA range.

Actually even in terms of overall scoring game, I think CJ and Steph are pretty identical. Moreso than CJ and Dame, especially when you consider their handles and ability to finish, mannerisms, etc. Steph however, has recently completely removed the midrange from his shot attempts, and just bombed more threes instead. It's what's vaulted him to the stratosphere among other transcendent talents.
 
Well, I see the similarities to Curry if you take away Curry's insane abilities from behind the three point line.

But that's kind of like saying Roy Hibbert is just as good as Shaq at everything except dunking. It's kind of a big deal.
 
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