Clinton is the new Huckabee?

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>WASHINGTON - Congratulations, Hillary Rodham Clinton. You did what your husband said you had to do and won Ohio and Texas.

Now what?

"Tonight we won three out of four contests and began a new chapter in this historical campaign," the victorious Clinton told reporters on her campaign plane.

But even if she wins every contest left, Clinton still would have a hard time overcoming Barack Obama's pledged delegate lead. In fact, her task got even harder because even though she won Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island Tuesday night, she didn't do much to close the delegate gap ?€” and with every contest that passes, the number up for grabs drops.

Obama focused on the math while addressing supporters in Texas. "We have nearly the same delegate lead as we did this morning and we are on our way to winning this nomination," he said.

Clinton's best hope is to try to rack up big margins in the spring contests. Even her own advisers acknowledge Obama will probably win the two other states left this month ?€” Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi next Tuesday. If she is able to continue turning voters against Obama in the races after that, she could plausibly clinch the nomination by persuading superdelegates to back her.

It won't be easy.

Her success Tuesday night came after she put a series of hits on Obama. She ran TV ads that questioned his foreign policy credentials ?€” one that pointed out he didn't call hearings on the fight against terrorists in Afghanistan and another fear-inducing piece that depicted her as the best candidate to handle an international crisis that erupts at 3 a.m. when your children are asleep.

Her campaign tried to raise more questions about Obama's connections to an indicted fundraiser as he went on the trail. Clinton said Obama tried to pull the old "wink-wink" by talking tough on free trade in Ohio while secretly reassuring Canadians that he is no protectionist.

"He needs to figure out a way to respond quicker without being trapped into sort of the politics of squabbling," said Democratic consultant Jenny Backus. "She slowed him down tonight by throwing a bunch of inside the beltway arguments over him, and it took him a day too long to get out from underneath it."

With seven weeks until Pennsylvania, there's plenty of time for the race to get even uglier.

And if the race drags on, it may not just be Clinton. Even as he was ahead with 11 straight wins leading into Tuesday, Obama made some of his toughest critiques yet of Clinton, and those are only likely to increase as he tries to force her out of the race.

"They need to run their own race, but they need to be able to turn the focus back to her," Backus said.</div>

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080305/ap_on_...ocrats_analysis

After all the drama, she gained a net count of 12 delegates. The next two primaries are also Obama facials.

 

[Mamba]

It's a damn shame that she is going to make the Democratic party wait this out until the convention...by that time, the GOP will be in full throttle against Obama AND Clinton. She is going to split the party.

 

[CelticKing]

How is she splitting the party? Obama has won nothing, why should Clinton give up?

Clinton is not the new Huckabee, who had only 200+ delegates while McCain had 1000+. That was a big difference. Do you know how much divides Obama and Clinton? Thats what I tought.

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama won't win on pledged delegates either. He needs 800 more, or so, to win the nomination. That ain't happening.

In spite of the prolonged race on the Democrats' side, the news cycles are all democrats, all day. So the guy who actually dominated the field on the other side isn't getting much press. Good for the Democrats, actually. No matter what the pundits say.

 

[huevonkiller]

Clinton won't catch up, and the Super delegates will mostly go with the popular vote leader.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries...ts/scorecard/#D

Clinton 238 superdelagtes
Obama 199 superdelegates

 

[Mamba]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Mar 5 2008, 02:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>How is she splitting the party? Obama has won nothing, why should Clinton give up?

Clinton is not the new Huckabee, who had only 200+ delegates while McCain had 1000+. That was a big difference. Do you know how much divides Obama and Clinton? Thats what I tought.

</div>

I'm saying is, there is really no virtual shot of Clinton catching Obama on pledged delegates (there is a great article on newsweek [this might be it, actually] about this). Therefore, unless she or Obama bow out, which isn't happening, this thing is going to run it's course to the convention were the super-delegates are going to have to decide the out come...and if Obama is ahead in the pledged delegates and they go against that, you can count on an uproar from the Democratic party.

 

[CelticKing]

Clinton has already caught him.


Obama 1,520
Clinton 1, 424


Super delegates
Obama 199
Clinton 238


Needed to win 2,024 (according to howard dean)

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Mar 5 2008, 02:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Clinton has already caught him.


Obama 1,520
Clinton 1, 424


Super delegates
Obama 199
Clinton 238


Needed to win 2,024 (according to howard dean)</div>

How is that catching up to him? She got 12 more delegates, do the Math on the remaining states. Empirically he has about a 70% chance of winning.

In fact, read the article I just posted.

 

[Denny Crane]

^^^ I think the 1520/1424 numbers include the superdelgates.

 

[Mamba]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Mar 5 2008, 02:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Clinton has already caught him.


Obama 1,520
Clinton 1, 424

Super delegates
Obama 199
Clinton 238


Needed to win 2,024 (according to howard dean)</div>

Like Denny said, those include the SD's.

 

[CelticKing]

I know it includes the super delegates, but I'm saying that no way that Obama has this in his pocket. And no way that Clinton is the new Huckabee. You can't connect the two cases.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Mar 5 2008, 02:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I know it includes the super delegates, but I'm saying that no way that Obama has this in his pocket. And no way that Clinton is the new Huckabee. You can't connect the two cases.</div>

Tell me how she wins then.

You can't, unless you start speculating about Michigan and Florida like Denny does.

 

[Denny Crane]

Tell me how he wins.

Speculate away!

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 5 2008, 03:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Tell me how he wins.

Speculate away!

</div>

You go first.

Using your own Rasmussen polls would tell you that it's more likely then not Obama wins. What is your point?

 

[CelticKing]

You're the one who started the thread calling Clinton the new "Huckabee" and then you can't make the case for it.

You go first.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticKing @ Mar 5 2008, 03:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>You're the one who started the thread calling Clinton the new "Huckabee" and then you can't make the case for it.

You go first.</div>

You're just a casual observer if you even thought she caught up.

Rasmussen calculations (How many times do I have to say 70+%), the most accurate polls according to Denny, your pal.

And you?

 

[huevonkiller]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...#upcomingstates

Illustrates the math a little for you. The next two primaries are Obama blowouts too.

 

[Mamba]

Are we in ****ing pre-school? You go first? Huevon own's you guys...well Denny, he's pretty ****ing smart...just backs up Hillary a little much for my likings.

 

[huevonkiller]

Fox/CNN News also reported she has to win 75% of the vote in the next ten states to catch up.

 

[Mamba]

Email from the Obama Campaign being circulated:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.

That's her decision. But it's not stopping John McCain, who clinched the Republican nomination last night, from going on the offensive. He's already made news attacking Barack, and that will only become more frequent in the coming days.

Right now, it's essential for every single supporter of Barack Obama to step up and help fight this two-front battle. In the face of attacks from Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we need to be ready to take them on.

Will you make an online donation of $25 right now?

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse.

Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests.

By a week from today, we will have competed in Wyoming and Mississippi. Two more states and 45 more delegates will be off the table.

But if Senator Clinton wants to continue this, let's show that we're ready.

Make an online donation of $25 now to show you're willing to fight for this:

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

This nomination process is an opportunity to decide what our party needs to stand for in this election.

We can either take on John McCain with a candidate who's already united Republicans and Independents against us, or we can do it with a campaign that's united Americans from all parties around a common purpose.

We can debate John McCain about who can clean up Washington by nominating a candidate who's taken more money from lobbyists than he has, or we can do it with a campaign that hasn't taken a dime of their money because we've been funded by you.

We can present the American people with a candidate who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with McCain on the worst foreign policy disaster of our generation, and agrees with him that George Bush deserves the benefit of the doubt on Iran, or we can nominate someone who opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning and will not support a march to war with Iran.

John McCain may have a long history of straight talk and independent thinking, but he has made the decision in this campaign to offer four more years of the very same policies that have failed us for the last eight.

We need a Democratic candidate who will present the starkest contrast to those failed policies of the past.

And that candidate is Barack Obama.

Please make a donation of $25 now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

Thank you,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America</div>

I know it's in favor of Obama, but only a gain of 4 delegates for Hillary yesterday? That wasn't the major victory that her hubby said she needed.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Black Mamba @ Mar 5 2008, 07:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Email from the Obama Campaign being circulated:

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.

That's her decision. But it's not stopping John McCain, who clinched the Republican nomination last night, from going on the offensive. He's already made news attacking Barack, and that will only become more frequent in the coming days.

Right now, it's essential for every single supporter of Barack Obama to step up and help fight this two-front battle. In the face of attacks from Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we need to be ready to take them on.

Will you make an online donation of $25 right now?

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

The chatter among pundits may have gotten better for the Clinton campaign after last night, but by failing to cut into our lead, the math -- and their chances of winning -- got considerably worse.

Today, we still have a lead of more than 150 delegates, and there are only 611 pledged delegates left to win in the upcoming contests.

By a week from today, we will have competed in Wyoming and Mississippi. Two more states and 45 more delegates will be off the table.

But if Senator Clinton wants to continue this, let's show that we're ready.

Make an online donation of $25 now to show you're willing to fight for this:

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

This nomination process is an opportunity to decide what our party needs to stand for in this election.

We can either take on John McCain with a candidate who's already united Republicans and Independents against us, or we can do it with a campaign that's united Americans from all parties around a common purpose.

We can debate John McCain about who can clean up Washington by nominating a candidate who's taken more money from lobbyists than he has, or we can do it with a campaign that hasn't taken a dime of their money because we've been funded by you.

We can present the American people with a candidate who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with McCain on the worst foreign policy disaster of our generation, and agrees with him that George Bush deserves the benefit of the doubt on Iran, or we can nominate someone who opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning and will not support a march to war with Iran.

John McCain may have a long history of straight talk and independent thinking, but he has made the decision in this campaign to offer four more years of the very same policies that have failed us for the last eight.

We need a Democratic candidate who will present the starkest contrast to those failed policies of the past.

And that candidate is Barack Obama.

Please make a donation of $25 now:

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

Thank you,

David

David Plouffe
Campaign Manager
Obama for America</div>

I know it's in favor of Obama, but only a gain of 4 delegates for Hillary yesterday? That wasn't the major victory that her hubby said she needed.
</div>

What a sad "firewall" for her.

I hear she might drop After April 22 at least, I can't confirm anything though.

 

[Mamba]

I do expect her to win Pennsylvania, but not by a wide margin. I just don't see the point of continuing to debate the issue when I think the popular vote, the states won, and the people supporting the campaing clearly show that Obama is the favored nominee of the democratic party. Why do women have to be so ****ing stubborn?

 

[adisodes]

She can't catch up using pledged delegates, but he can't win the nomination like that either.

I don't necessarily think the superdelegates would go the way of the pledged delegates. What about the popular vote? She can catch up, especially if Florida is involved.

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (adisodes @ Mar 5 2008, 07:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She can't catch up using pledged delegates, but he can't win the nomination like that either.

I don't necessarily think the superdelegates would go the way of the pledged delegates. What about the popular vote? She can catch up, especially if Florida is involved.</div>

Even if Florida is involved, she won't catch up. He still has a 300,000 lead in that case and Florida will be a do over anyway. A lot of the states that are coming up also look prime for Obama, like North Carolina and Mississippi.

The Superdelegates that don't support going with the Nation's vote are already in her camp, the rest will mostly follow the general will.

 

[adisodes]

She cut Obama's lead in NC to 5%. If she tops him in the popular vote, the will of the people would be where the superdelegates go if they endorse Clinton.

Remember last time someone won an election who didn't win the popular vote? Yeah.

And who was complaining and protesting in the streets? We were. Yeah....

 

[huevonkiller]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (adisodes @ Mar 5 2008, 07:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She cut Obama's lead in NC to 5%. If she tops him in the popular vote, the will of the people would be where the superdelegates go if they endorse Clinton.

Remember last time someone won an election who didn't win the popular vote? Yeah.

And who was complaining and protesting in the streets? We were. Yeah....</div>

The average poll has Obama ahead in NC by over 9 points.

The thing is, it isn't just about North Carolina for Obama, and he has a 600,000 lead. Most of the states that are left favor Obama, in fact, his lead might grow or at least stay virtually the same.

 

[Denny Crane]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (adisodes @ Mar 5 2008, 04:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She can't catch up using pledged delegates, but he can't win the nomination like that either.

I don't necessarily think the superdelegates would go the way of the pledged delegates. What about the popular vote? She can catch up, especially if Florida is involved.</div>

These guys are acting like Obama is mathematically able to get enough delgates before the convention. He can't.

Neither can Hillary, but what is certain is that if they both stay in the race, it'll have to be decided at the convention.

I think the woman is vile and awful and would hate to see her get the nomination, FWIW.

If it goes to the convention, after the first ballot and no winner, all the delegates can vote how they choose in the second round of voting. Typically, delgates have stuck with their candidate for the most part, tho. Edwards has influence over 200+ delegates that could help sway things.

Both candidates have to make a similar case at the convention. "I won the popular vote." Or "I won more delgates." Or both. Hillary is likely to argue she's won all the really big states that matter in the general election (NY, California, Florida, etc.) and if she wins most of the remaining primaries even by a little bit, she could argue she's got the momentum, too.

 

[adisodes]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Mar 5 2008, 07:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (adisodes @ Mar 5 2008, 07:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>She cut Obama's lead in NC to 5%. If she tops him in the popular vote, the will of the people would be where the superdelegates go if they endorse Clinton.

Remember last time someone won an election who didn't win the popular vote? Yeah.

And who was complaining and protesting in the streets? We were. Yeah....</div>

The average poll has Obama ahead in NC by over 9 points.

The thing is, it isn't just about North Carolina for Obama, and he has a 600,000 lead. Most of the states that are left favor Obama, in fact, his lead might grow or at least stay virtually the same.
</div>

I assume your citing this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...rimary-275.html

Those polls were done almost a month ago. They are barely even valid anymore. So much has changed in the race since. It's a 4 point lead and I'm sure we'll get more polls in the next day or two. I'm not saying she'll win North Carolina, but it's going to be close citing her momentum.

 

[44Thrilla]

Hillary is all done, IMO. As stated, she has to carry the next 10 states 70-30 to catch up. And if they do decide to bring in Florida and Michigan, they will be redone, and probably in caucus form, which favors Obama (Has he lost a caucus yet?). Also, even if Hillary wins them again, her margin of victory there will go way down with only her and Obama on the ballot.

That leaves the superdelegates as Hillary's only shot. If they choose to go against the people, then I and many many other Democrats will either support McCain or boycott the general election altogether. Hopefully they know that they'll be handing over the election to the Republicans if they do disregard the votes from the people and choose Hillary for political reasons.