Coincidence?

[Draco]

Things have a way of evening out. Our hot shooting was never something that could be sustained night-in and night-out. Since we don't have any other offensive plan, we're going to lose games when we aren't hitting our jumpers.
Honeymoon phase is now clearly over. Recommence with trade proposals.

We also had 4 starters returning who played extensive minutes together, and 3 of which have four years together. They didn't need time to develope on court chemistry, learn each others offensive tendincies, or use new coaches game plans. Our team was highly motivated at the start of the year to begin fighting for the playoffs compared to other contenders who might be playing into shape early in the year and aiming to peak at the end.

I'm wondering if this team might finish the year playing more at the level of a 6th seed that has the potential to jump to the 3rd or drop to the 9th. Thats what I thought going into the season and after losing 5 of 9 games its more of a concern now than any time this year going back to opening night. We racked up so many wins early in the season they should at the least make the playoffs though.

 

[e_blazer]

Things have a way of evening out. Our hot shooting was never something that could be sustained night-in and night-out. Since we don't have any other offensive plan, we're going to lose games when we aren't hitting our jumpers.
Honeymoon phase is now clearly over. Recommence with trade proposals.

I don't think that's exactly the problem. Damian was great, especially late. Nic was about on average, and Mo was a bit off. Matthews stunk it up, with 3 for 12 shooting, but it's not unusual for one guy to be off and the Blazers to still win. IMHO, LMA gets the primary blame for the loss. His game in the 3rd quarter was really bad: he shot 1 for 8, committed 2 PFs and had 2 TOs. His shot attempts included one make from 20', and misses from 23', 21', 20', 18', 9', 8', and 8'. The Blazers went from being up 5 at halftime to down 7 at the end of the 3rd. LMA's shot attempts were not forced and were ones that he normally makes at a high percentage. In other words, though he had 24 for the game and was really good in the first half, LMA had an unusually bad quarter and the team couldn't cover for the shortcomings of its MVP player. I don't think there will be many games where that's going to happen.

I don't think that you can change the character of the Blazers this far into the season and be successful. Making a trade for a better defender changes the chemistry of the offense, which has been good enough for a terrific start to this point in the season. The team's been off its game since the Miami loss (with the exception of the Charlotte blowout). I think that they'll get their act back in order, hopefully starting tonight.

 

[Schilly]

OK for fun....

Per 36 minutes Robinson scores 16.6 points, Leonard scores 11. If we were to adjust that to 12 mpg each would get in a reserve roll that would be 5.5pts and 3.6 pts are a positive difference for Robinson of +1.6

Last 8 games 4 losses (Forgot that the loss to Minny was pre-Leonard)
-1 to Miami
-2 to NO
-2 to Philly
-4 to Sac

Now we say that the small difference isn't significant, but if all you did was swap the production (yes I realize it's far more complicated than that) then we win vs Mia, lose by 0.1 to NO and Philly and lose by 2.1 to Sac.... And that's not factoring Defense.

BTW I am not an anti-Leonard guy I actually really like what he can be for this team.

 

[e_blazer]

OK for fun....

Per 36 minutes Robinson scores 16.6 points, Leonard scores 11. If we were to adjust that to 12 mpg each would get in a reserve roll that would be 5.5pts and 3.6 pts are a positive difference for Robinson of +1.6

Last 8 games 4 losses (Forgot that the loss to Minny was pre-Leonard)
-1 to Miami
-2 to NO
-2 to Philly
-4 to Sac

Now we say that the small difference isn't significant, but if all you did was swap the production (yes I realize it's far more complicated than that) then we win vs Mia, lose by 0.1 to NO and Philly and lose by 2.1 to Sac.... And that's not factoring Defense.

BTW I am not an anti-Leonard guy I actually really like what he can be for this team.

Both players have their strengths and weaknesses, and neither is a complete player. I don't think Stotts is particularly committed to either, which is why we saw Robinson get some PT last night. Meyers can open the floor up better than Robinson, but if our outside shooters aren't hitting their shots then Robinson banging the boards and adding some inside scoring punch is a better option. I think that Stotts will just go by feel on how a game is going in making his decision as to which of these bench guys gets some run.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The other half of the equation is: how many points does each allow? Leonard scores fewer but does he allow the same number of points as Robinson?

 

[Schilly]

Production via 82 games has Robinson at -3.8 (15.6 own, 19.4 op) and Leonard at -8.5 (15.4 own, 23.9 op)

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Production via 82 games has Robinson at -3.8 (15.6 own, 19.4 op) and Leonard at -8.5 (15.4 own, 23.9 op)

What's the latest date they've updated that on? 82games is great for that stat but only when the site has been updated recently.

Stotts is data driven; he'll play the least awful player when he can.

 

[Schilly]

1/05

 

[BlazerCaravan]

1/05

And there it is. Thanks for the check.

 

[Draco]

It kind of reminds me of those questions as a kid; would you rather freeze to death or burn to death?

 

[blue9]

The team's been off its game since the Miami loss (with the exception of the Charlotte blowout). I think that they'll get their act back in order, hopefully starting tonight.

I think they first faltered against DET and haven't looked the same since. Sure, they won some (big) games but they haven't looked like a particularly strong title candidate. IMO they peaked with the GS/IND wins. Hopefully we have a second "peak" that we start climbing in April.

 

[Schilly]

I haven't been able to watch many games (Working 70+ hours a week the last couple months puts a damper) but What I saw in the Miami games is Miami swarmed the perimeter with a lot of movement on D not giving our guys room to shoot and limiting the ability to pass inside. I am wondering if other teams took note and are playing similarly since then.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Production via 82 games has Robinson at -3.8 (15.6 own, 19.4 op) and Leonard at -8.5 (15.4 own, 23.9 op)

But, but, but......

 

[PtldPlatypus]

But, but, but......

...team production when each is on the court:

Player Tm pp/100 Opp pp/100 Difference
Leonard 106.9 pts 104.1 pts +2.8 pts/100
Robinson 108.6 pts 116.4 pts -7.9 pts/100

I'm more concerned with the team's performance than each player's individual performance.

 

[Mediocre Man]

...team production when each is on the court:

Player Tm pp/100 Opp pp/100 Difference
Leonard 106.9 pts 104.1 pts +2.8 pts/100
Robinson 108.6 pts 116.4 pts -7.9 pts/100

I'm more concerned with the team's performance than each player's individual performance.

I would agree with you, but It's so hard to pinpoint things like who they are playing with and against. The scores at the times they are playing. Stuff like that.

 

[Draco]

Postional +/- has got to be one of the most absolute worthless basketball statistics I've ever seen.

Players routinely switch who they are defending, solid defenders have responsibilities to multiple players in pick and roles. Guards have responsibilites to get back on defense and bigs should collapse near the bucket. Postional +/- ignores all of those.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Production via 82 games has Robinson at -3.8 (15.6 own, 19.4 op) and Leonard at -8.5 (15.4 own, 23.9 op)

That's individual production, not team production. If you look at team production (which is what determines wins and losses), the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the floor than Robinson. Also from 82games.com:

Thomas Robinson Floor Time Statistics:
Min: 18%
Net Pts: -54
Off: 1.08
Def: 1.15
Net48: -8.4
W: 10
L: 17
Win%: 37.0

Meyers Leonard Floor Time Statistics:
Min: 7%
Net Pts: +13
Off: 1.07
Def: 1.04
Net48: +5.3
W: 7
L: 5
Win%: 58.3

So, with Robinson on the floor the team gives up 8.4 more points per 48 minutes than they score and only wins 37% of those minutes. With Leonard on the floor the team outscores their opponents by 5.3 points per 48 and win 58.3% of those minutes.

Again, small sample size caveats apply, but based on the data provided, Robinson's presence on the court has a negative impact on team performance and Leonard's presence on the court has a net positive impact on team performance. And, that's what this thread is about, team performance. If all you care about is individual performance, we should have just kept J.J. Hickson and not traded for Robin Lopez.

J.J. Hickson 2012-13 (Individual) Production:

Own: 21.0
Opp: 20.3
Net: +0.7

Robin Lopez (Individual) Production:

Own: 17.7
Opp: 20.2
Net: -2.5

Like Robinson, Hickson had "superior" individual stats.

J.J. Hickson 2012-13 (Team) Floor Time Statistics:

Min: 58%
Net Pts: -266
Off: 1.05
Def: 1.10
Net48: -5.5
W: 30
L: 48
Win%: 38.5

Robin Lopez (Team) Floor Time Statistics:

Min: 63%
Net Pts: +167
Off: 1.15
Def: 1.06
Net48: +7.7
W: 23
L: 10
Win%: 69.7

But, like Leonard, the TEAM plays better when Lopez is on the court. Anyone who watched the Blazers last year knew that Hickson was a stat padder that didn't help the team win, that he was the weak link in our starting line-up. And, I doubt if there is anyone here that has watched the Blazers play this season that would say Lopez, in spite of his inferior individual stats, hasn't made the team significantly better.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

...team production when each is on the court:

Player Tm pp/100 Opp pp/100 Difference
Leonard 106.9 pts 104.1 pts +2.8 pts/100
Robinson 108.6 pts 116.4 pts -7.9 pts/100

I'm more concerned with the team's performance than each player's individual performance.

Was typing my response when you posted yours. Great minds think alike. You posted team production per 100 possessions. I posted team production per 48 minutes. In both cases (of course) it shows that the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the court than with Robinson. The sample size is small, but it's the exact same size as the Leonard haters were trying to use to declare victory based on individual production.

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Boob-No-More again."

 

[Boob-No-More]

I would agree with you, but It's so hard to pinpoint things like who they are playing with and against. The scores at the times they are playing. Stuff like that.

But you were all set to declare victory in your personal war on Meyers Leonard based on the exact same sample size for individual production. When the stats show the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the court than with Robinson on the court, all of a sudden you question the validity of the data. Gee, why's that? Personal agenda, perhaps?

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Postional +/- has got to be one of the most absolute worthless basketball statistics I've ever seen.

Players routinely switch who they are defending, solid defenders have responsibilities to multiple players in pick and roles. Guards have responsibilites to get back on defense and bigs should collapse near the bucket. Postional +/- ignores all of those.

J.J. Hickson begs to differ...

Yep, basketball is a team game, at both ends. Both of these players are very young, very raw, make mistakes and need to improve. Stotts saw something in Robinson's game that caused him to make a change in the rotation, and so far the TEAM performance supports that decision.

Are we losing more? Yes, but that's not because of Meyers Leonard vs. Thomas Robinson, it's because our starters have been playing like absolute shit for long stretches in almost every game (blowout win over Charlotte excluded).

BNM

 

[Schilly]

I would like to see Meyers and Robinson play together a little more.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I would like to see Meyers and Robinson play together a little more.

But, hopefully only in blowout wins, for now.

Right now, the sample sizes are very small, but Leonard seems to play his best alongside Lopez. I think in terms of basketball IQ, Lopez is a smart player that seems to help compensate for Leonard's low BBIQ. Lopez is our defensive floor general and helps call out what plays the opposing offenses are running and directs his teammates on where they need to go. I think Leonard benefits from this. Right now, Leonard and Robinson, because of lack of experience, both have low BBIQs. So, playing them meaningful minutes together may not work out too well.

Hopefully, they will both develop and this will become a more viable combination in the future. They do seem to have some complimentary skills, but both have significant holes in their games. I do like the fact that Robinson is a great offensive rebounder and Leonard has become a great defensive rebounder (another reason he plays well next to Lopez, a great offensive rebounder) and that Leonard can space the floor so Robinson can attack the rim. I just think we'd get absolutely killed on defense if we played them both together right now - even worse that we usually get killed on defense.

BNM

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I would like to see Meyers and Robinson play together a little more.

Agreed, so long as it's for the Idaho Stampede. Or maybe the Chicago Bulls after they trade us Noah for a package of crap.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

It kind of reminds me of those questions as a kid; would you rather freeze to death or burn to death?

I would like to see Meyers and Robinson play together a little more.

I call this lineup "Death By Snu-Snu"

 

[ponderguy]

In very limited stretches I think it would be interesting to see a lineup of
PG Mo
SG Dame
SF Robinson
PF Leonard/LMA
C Freeland/Lopez

 

[Boob-No-More]

In very limited stretches I think it would be interesting to see a lineup of
PG Mo
SG Dame
SF Robinson
PF Leonard/LMA
C Freeland/Lopez

Me too!!! But, I doubt if the refs would allow us to play 7-on-5. Although, they did let is play 6-on-5 that one time against Boston. So, maybe it's worth a try.

BNM

 

[BBert]

Good work, Boob.

If one is going to compare the relatively minor individual statistical differences between Meyers and TRob, in the minimal minutes they've played, to assign blame for the recent stretch of .500 ball on Meyers, it would make more sense to me to compare the performance of the players who have a greater impact on those outcomes (the starters) to themselves, before and during this recent slump. IOW: Lillard before and during; Wes before and during; etc.

 

[Haakzilla]

...I think that it might be part coincidence, part not. While the stats don't backup T.Rob, the stats also don't account for pure hustle, determination, toughness, intimidation, and the overall confidence that T.Rob brings to the floor. I feel like our top 7 rotation guys would much rather "go to war" with T.Rob than they would with M.Leo. So with that, I am 100% in the FREE T.ROB camp!

 

[Draco]

In very limited stretches I think it would be interesting to see a lineup of
PG Mo
SG Dame
SF Robinson
PF Leonard/LMA
C Freeland/Lopez

I'm not interested. If TRob clogs up our court spacing playing the 4 it'll be much worse with him at the 3.