Collins Summer League Analysis

[Boob-No-More]

For the record, I'm not saying smaller men CAN'T coach big men (hell, Pete Newell was only 6'2"), but the ones we have don't seem to be getting great results. None of them are big men specialists (like Newell was). We got much better results when we had a dedicated, experienced big man coach, but he was for reasons that had nothing to do with his job performance.

BNM

 

[riverman]

For the record, I'm not saying smaller men CAN'T coach big men (hell, Pete Newell was only 6'2"), but the ones we have don't seem to be getting great results. None of them are big men specialists (like Newell was). We got much better results when we had a dedicated, experienced big man coach, but he was for reasons that had nothing to do with his job performance.

BNM

Just a note but we really just got our first true big man since Rolo in Nurk and Leonard apparently has had recurring injury setbacks for a year and a half according to Olshey.....Stotts says he just needs to acquire quicker instincts...we'll find out soon enough if he can stay in a game for more than a couple minutes.

 

[JDC]

There's a trust level I have with Zach. He just seems like a kid that's going to figure out how to be successful.

I'm not super high on his offensive ceiling due to a variety of things, but he has a great foundation to be a nice 2-way big who contributes to winning basketball. He was getting Myles Turner hype by some people but Turner has better size/length and was more advanced as both a finisher and shooter coming out of Texas.

A hybrid of Cody Zeller and Gorgui Deing with NBA range would be my comparison.

Things I'll be looking for from Zach this year:

- Help assignment recognition (he's already advanced for a 19 year old here)
- Pnr D positioning (communication of coverages w/ guards)
- Ability to both drop or hedge and contain without fouling
- How switchable will he be?
- Footwork coming out of pick and pops
- Finishing ability to dunker spot situations
- Passing in short roll situations
- Comfort with nba line
- Ability to attack closeout and finish with pass or dribble pull-up
- Lowering of foul rate through the year (looked good here in SL but word is that he fouled too much at Gurg's camp)

 

[riverman]

There's a trust level I have with Zach. He just seems like a kid that's going to figure out how to be successful.

I'm not super high on his offensive ceiling due to a variety of things, but he has a great foundation to be a nice 2-way big who contributes to winning basketball. He was getting Myles Turner hype by some people but Turner has better size/length and was more advanced as both a finisher and shooter coming out of Texas.

A hybrid of Cody Zeller and Gorgui Deing with NBA range would be my comparison.

Zach knows the game...grew up with good mentors...athletic parents, he's ahead of the curve...just needs to bulk up and adjust. BBIQ for him is off the charts...it's just a matter of him developing a flow...not overthinking...knowing the playbook and where his teammates need the ball..great rookie in my view.

 

[riverman]

Upside for Zach....Tom Chambers....settle for...Michael Doleac...backed up Shaq in Orlando...Portland native.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Just a note but we really just got our first true big man since Rolo in Nurk and Leonard apparently has had recurring injury setbacks for a year and a half according to Olshey.....Stotts says he just needs to acquire quicker instincts...we'll find out soon enough if he can stay in a game for more than a couple minutes.

I consider anyone who plays primarily the 4 or 5 a big man. That includes Leonard, Vonleh and now Swanigan and Collins. In addition to Lopez, Aldridge, Freeland and Kaman were all bigs that Hughes also worked with while he was here.

BNM

 

[HailBlazers]

Upside for Zach....Tom Chambers....settle for...Michael Doleac...backed up Shaq in Orlando...Portland native.

How about Pau Gasol?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Upside for Zach....Tom Chambers....settle for...Michael Doleac...backed up Shaq in Orlando...Portland native.

Giving up assets to get Michael Doleac would be depressing for me. A top ten pick in a loaded draft should come with starter expectations sooner rather than later, and while it can certainly change, our 26th pick is a lot closer to doing that than our 10th pick

 

[dviss1]

I stopped watching the video after he blamed that first pick and roll on Zack Collins. A turnover in that situation is always the ball-handlers fault. Especially when the larger person switches onto the smaller person. The defender backed up from RJ Hunter all the way to the elbow... RJ could have shot a 3 if he wanted to but no, he decides to jump in the air and throw a pass. He's the one that doesn't know how to run the friggin pick-and-roll. That had nothing to do with Zach Collins. So the coach that made the video is an idiot.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I stopped watching the video after he blamed that first pick and roll on Zack Collins. A turnover in that situation is always the ball-handlers fault. Especially when the larger person switches onto the smaller person. The defender backed up from RJ Hunter all the way to the elbow... RJ could have shot a 3 if he wanted to but no, he decides to jump in the air and throw a pass. He's the one that doesn't know how to run the friggin pick-and-roll. That had nothing to do with Zach Collins. So the coach that may the video is an idiot.

Yeah--It looked to me like Zach came off the pick, moved out to the top of the arc to open up a passing lane, saw that RJ was wide open, and proceeded to crash the glass to be available for the rebound in case the wide open shooter missed the wide open shot. Seemed like a perfectly fundamentally sound course of action.

 

[dviss1]

Yeah--It looked to me like Zach came off the pick, moved out to the top of the arc to open up a passing lane, saw that RJ was wide open, and proceeded to crash the glass to be available for the rebound in case the wide open shooter missed the wide open shot. Seemed like a perfectly fundamentally sound course of action.

Now imagine Dame in that same situation.

 

[BBert]

I understand WHY they fired Kim Hughes...... but I really wish they hadn't. Or at least didn't fire him until they had an alternative.

Or suspended him instead

 

[Trackjack]

Collins around has good foot work for a big and he can also extend his shot out to the 3 point line so I am not really worry about his offense it will come. Who ever taught him how to play defense did very good job. He always aware where the ball is on the floor that helps him ether cut off the lane or be good position to protect the rim. His down fall is strength and that also will come in due time. Will make the rookie mistake you can count on it.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Upside for Zach....Tom Chambers....settle for...Michael Doleac...backed up Shaq in Orlando...Portland native.

I'm not seeing either comparison. Chambers was a super athletic volume scorer, who played little in the way of defense. His career high was 27.2 ppg. I don't see Collins ever being that kind of a scorer. Plus, unlike Chambers, Zach seems to actually care about playing defense.

Doleac was a lumbering, unathletic, earth bound career back up whose career bests were 7.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.5 bpg. They are two totally different types of players, but Meyers Leonard, as bad as he's been, has already topped all of those marks (8.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 0.6 bpg). Are we really willing to "settle" or Zach Collins being less productive than Meyers Leonard?

The biggest problem I have with both comparisons is that neither player was a good rim protector. Chambers, for all of his high flying athleticism, blocked very few shots. Doleac, was a solid position defender, but his lack of athleticism prevented him from blocking many shots.

Zach, even in his very limited summer league action and especially in college, has shown he has the potential and the desire to be a much better rim protector than either of these two.

I just don't see him having much in common with either player.

BNM

 

[0-Our!]

Just out of curiosity, what is Meyers' trick?

Actually... he's a 2-trick pony: He used THE "Facre" to trick the Blazers into drafting him 11th AND then... he called upon THE "Farce" again w/ some Jedidiah-mind trickery to fool the Blazers into giving him the same contract that he declined in the 1st place! Careful... THE "Farce" is strong w/ this one! Some stright-up O.B.-Wayne-Ginobili shit right here!

 

[riverman]

I'm not seeing either comparison

ok then...you don't see it...fact....nobody knows how Zach Collins will look against NBA competition and Tom Chambers in my view was a great player...even later in his career backing up Karl Malone....Doleac's best years were backing up Shaq......Collins best years were at backup center in college.....stats are all and good but they were not what I was referring to at all....I'm sure you can make your own comparisons with stats.

 

[Boob-No-More]

ok then...you don't see it...fact....nobody knows how Zach Collins will look against NBA competition and Tom Chambers in my view was a great player...even later in his career backing up Karl Malone....Doleac's best years were backing up Shaq......Collins best years were at backup center in college.....stats are all and good but they were not what I was referring to at all....I'm sure you can make your own comparisons with stats.

The two players you chose as comparisons really have nothing in common, either in their style of play, or their production. One averaged 27.2 ppg, the other 7.0 ppg. To predict Collins will fall somewhere in that range is a pretty safe bet. But then, it's a pretty safe bet for most NBA players.

OK, forget the stats and compare their games. What similarities does Collins have to Chambers as an offensive player? Chambers was a high volume, high USG% scorer that was usually the No. 1 option (or No. 2 option) on his team. Do you see Collins as that type of scorer? In terms of defense, Collins will be better as a rookie than Chambers ever was.

Doleac was a slow footed, lumbering player that wasn't a good shot blocker. Collins is much more athletic and has much better shot blocking skills.

Neither of those payers were good rim protectors or good 3-point shooters. Those are two of Collin's strengths.

You picked two players of vastly different skill sets and degrees of athleticism. I still don't see what Zach Collins has in common with either.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

At worst, Collins will be a 3 and D guy - which is what our offense with Dame and CJ really needs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

At worst, Collins will be a 3 and D guy - which is what our offense with Dame and CJ really needs.

Which neither Chambers nor Doleac were. Neither had the 3, nor the D.

Hence, my disagreement with @riverman's comparisons.

BNM

 

[dviss1]

ok then...you don't see it...fact....nobody knows how Zach Collins will look against NBA competition and Tom Chambers in my view was a great player...even later in his career backing up Karl Malone....Doleac's best years were backing up Shaq......Collins best years were at backup center in college.....stats are all and good but they were not what I was referring to at all....I'm sure you can make your own comparisons with stats.

Zach doesn't play like either player though. Their games don't resemble each other at all.

 

[riverman]

The two players you chose as comparisons really have nothing in common, either in their style of play, or their production. One averaged 27.2 ppg, the other 7.0 ppg. To predict Collins will fall somewhere in that range is a pretty safe bet. But then, it's a pretty safe bet for most NBA players.

OK, forget the stats and compare their games. What similarities does Collins have to Chambers as an offensive player? Chambers was a high volume, high USG% scorer that was usually the No. 1 option (or No. 2 option) on his team. Do you see Collins as that type of scorer? In terms of defense, Collins will be better as a rookie than Chambers ever was.

Doleac was a slow footed, lumbering player that wasn't a good shot blocker. Collins is much more athletic and has much better shot blocking skills.

Neither of those payers were good rim protectors or good 3-point shooters. Those are two of Collin's strengths.

You picked two players of vastly different skill sets and degrees of athleticism. I still don't see what Zach Collins has in common with either.

BNM

Collins is an unproven rookie with skills.....it's all speculation but you're probably right....your projection of Zach will probably be better than mine..debate over

 

[riverman]

I hope the kid morphs into Alajuwon...as long as we're speculating...I hope his defense..aka shot blocking is like Whiteside and he shoots like Dirk...I don't really think we know how Zach plays yet is sort of my point....I thought....Tom Chambers....offensive juggernaut...Michael Doleac....solid role player...Doleac being the meh....just ok comparison...wasn't going for analytics but that's not my thing.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Collins is an unproven rookie with skills.....it's all speculation but you're probably right....your projection of Zach will probably be better than mine..debate over

All rookies are unproven, but that doesn't mean we can't assess their strengths and weaknesses.

Collins projects as a solid 2-way player (something the Blazers REALLY need at the forward spots to complement their high scoring, but defensively challenged guards). He has great defensive instincts and fundamentals, which is very promising in a 19-year old big.

His offensive game at Gonzaga was well rounded. He's never been the leading scorer on his team at any level, and doesn't project to be in the NBA either. He is an efficient scorer with some good post moves and range out to the 3-point line. If he reaches his potential, he will be a great complimentary player at the offensive end as well. He already has a much more developed and well rounded offensive game than Noah Vonleh.

It will be interesting to watch him grow. Right now, Swanigan is much more NBA ready, and I love his motor and work ethic, but I think Collins has more upside. If Collins develops, a three big man rotation of Nurk, Collins and Swanigan could be seriously good a couple years from now. The trio would provide a great combination of inside and out scoring, pick and roll defense and rim protection, great rebounding and excellent passing. Nurk has the most complete skill set of the three, but that will just allow him to fit well with either Collins or Swanigan. In fact, given Collin's rim protection and 3-point shooting, combined with Swanigan's passing and rebounding, the two of them could also be very effective when playing together.

Of course, this is all just my personal opinions and projections, but they are based on what I've seen and read about these guys. Collins looked shaky in summer league, but he was outstanding in the NCAA tourney. To me, that proves he's no shrinking violet. It will take him a while to put it together and adjust to the NBA game, but I think he will get there sooner than many of the pessimists here expect.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I hope the kid morphs into Alajuwon...as long as we're speculating...I hope his defense..aka shot blocking is like Whiteside and he shoots like Dirk...I don't really think we know how Zach plays yet is sort of my point....I thought....Tom Chambers....offensive juggernaut...Michael Doleac....solid role player...Doleac being the meh....just ok comparison...wasn't going for analytics but that's not my thing.

Its not all about analytics (I haven't used one single advanced stat in this thread), it's about skill sets and athletic ability. Chambers was an outstanding scorer. He led his team in scoring for several seasons. He did it with the Clippers, Seattle and Phoenix. Collins has never led his team in scoring at any level. He does not project to be a Tom Chambers like No. 1 option high volume scorer.

And yes, Collins was a back up in his one season at Gonzaga, but that does not relegate him to being a Micheal Doleac like career back up in the NBA. Collins was a 19-year old freshman backing up a 23-year old, 305 lb, 5th year senior. Karnowski had the size and strength to overpower college opponents, but didn't even get drafted by the NBA. His game lacks the skill and athleticism to translate to the NBA.

No one here has claimed Collins will be the next Olajuwon or Whiteside. Saying someone projects to be a good rim protector isn't the same as claiming they will be one of the greatest shot blockers in the history of the league. What if he's only a Joel Przybilla level rim protector? That's still a pretty good thing - especially since Collins also has a nice, well rounded offensive game and can make free throws.

BNM

 

[SIeepwalker]

I hope the kid morphs into Alajuwon....

That wouldn't be bad, but my dream (I know that it's crazy but hear me out) is that he turns into Olajuwon !!!

 

[Minstrel]

That wouldn't be bad, but my dream (I know that it's crazy but hear me out) is that he turns into Olajuwon !!!

He's too stiff to be Olajuwon.

(And by "stiff" I mean "white," but I'd rather not be racist. Maybe he can be Keith Van Horn!)

 

[PtldPlatypus]

IMO, the best comparison with his skillset (shot-blocking, 3-point shooting center) is probably Raef Lafrentz (Denver edition).

 

[Minstrel]

IMO, the best comparison with his skillset (shot-blocking, 3-point shooting center) is probably Raef Lafrentz (Denver edition).

Should we start the countdown on when his eventual contract extension becomes a ZCEC?

 

[Boob-No-More]

IMO, the best comparison with his skillset (shot-blocking, 3-point shooting center) is probably Raef Lafrentz (Denver edition).

DEN Raef Lafrentz is a very good comparison. DEN Raef Lafrentz wad a very good player. He did something no Blazers has ever done - block 200+ shots in two consecutive seasons.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Should we start the countdown on when his eventual contract extension becomes a ZCEC?

Hopefully not ever, but at least not until he's in his ate 20s. That's when the injuries caught up with Lafrentz.

BNM