Come one, come all...summer cap room primer.

[BrianFromWA]

Storyteller would do a much better job, I'm sure...but here ya go.

Portland, as it stands, has 50,546,518 in contracts and holds for next year (does not include 2009 1st, but does include PetKo and Freeland and renounces Frye). Even if you assume cap stays at 58.8M, that leaves 8.3M - 2009 1st hold (which, iirc is dependent on slot and should be around 1.2M or so). Let's call it an even $7M in cap space if we do nothing and a cap number of 51.8M.

If we don't exercise the option on Blake, then we have 47.8M in contracts and holds (C&H). If we don't pick up Travis, either, that's 44.2M. Supposedly that would give us a chance to make up to a 14M "lopsided deal or deals" for anyone we want. We cannot use MLE, BAE or any veteran's exceptions. And we've given up Travis and Blake.

Right now, KP could trade Blake and cash to a team under the cap to get a 4M trade exception. Same with Frye for a 3.2M exception, or Outlaw for a 4M exception. That way, we'd get space, PLUS 2 or 3 more valuable exceptions that could be used at the trade deadline or draft. Or, he could package RLEC, Outlaw and Blake right now for a stud, and then take MLE into the FA period, do sign and trades then, or use assets like the TEs at the draft.

Now, if we trade Sergio/Raef/Outlaw for VC and Dooling (kind of the worst-case scenario) we'd have 62M tied up for next year, which seems over the cap. But if the Miles appeal goes through, we are right back where we started with 53M tied up, the ability to not pick up Blake's option for another 4M and then we'd have ~10M in space.

EDIT: There really doesn't seem to be a downside for trading now. There IS a depreciation of assets if we trade later.

 

[SodaPopinski]

There really doesn't seem to be a downside for not trading now.

I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion after you already had us renouncing half our roster and putting all our eggs in the basket of "please, other GM's, give us all your PG's and SF's now that we are in no position of strength and we can't offer you jack shit."

-Pop

 

[BrianFromWA]

I mistyped that, Pop...thanks for the check.

The only way (as of right now) that we get anywhere near the space to make a "lopsided trade" as we can now is by renouncing Frye, Outlaw and Blake.

If we trade them now, we get a good player NOW. If we renounce them THEN, we have a SHOT at getting a good player/players THEN.

We keep talking about PA's pocketbook...people should do the math on what another 2-3 games in the second round and conf. finals, with the tripled prices, does for PA's pocketbook.

 

[Ed O]

Storyteller would do a much better job, I'm sure...but here ya go.

Where is Storyteller? I miss him.

(No offense, Brian! )

Right now, KP could trade Blake and cash to a team under the cap to get a 4M trade exception. Same with Frye for a 3.2M exception, or Outlaw for a 4M exception. That way, we'd get space, PLUS 2 or 3 more valuable exceptions that could be used at the trade deadline or draft. Or, he could package RLEC, Outlaw and Blake right now for a stud, and then take MLE into the FA period, do sign and trades then, or use assets like the TEs at the draft.

Trading Frye to a team under the cap makes a lot of sense to me... Frye is NOT useful on the court, IMO, and even if we cover the rest of his salary in cash, we'd come out ahead because of luxury tax ramifications.

Blake's still the starter and he'd be harder to lose for nothing.

Thanks for the overview!

Ed O.

 

[barfo]

Storyteller would do a much better job, I'm sure...but here ya go.

Portland, as it stands, has 50,546,518 in contracts and holds for next year (does not include 2009 1st, but does include PetKo and Freeland and renounces Frye). Even if you assume cap stays at 58.8M, that leaves 8.3M - 2009 1st hold (which, iirc is dependent on slot and should be around 1.2M or so). Let's call it an even $7M in cap space if we do nothing and a cap number of 51.8M.

But you shouldn't assume the cap is staying at 58.8. The league has notified the teams that the cap will be lower.

barfo

 

[BrianFromWA]

Exactly. I was using the best-case scenario for those who want to hold off on trading now.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Worst-case (imo) is that on draft day we trade Blake for another 4M (but longer) contract, or we pick up his option and Travis' by June 30.

Then the beancounters start figuring things on July 1, and it comes out that the cap will be at around 55M. And our Miles appeal doesn't work.

That leaves us with no ability to renounce Blake or Outlaw, less than the MLE to offer someone, and no ability to use the MLE. We'll be outbid by teams over the cap, if I'm reading the CBA right (which I may not be, but I think I am).

We're stuck hoping for S&Ts, AND we don't have an impact SF or PG. Or we could just trade now, and work with S&Ts and MLE in July.

 

[Rozza5]

Where is Storyteller? I miss him.

Speak of the Devil!


From BlazersEdge:


Storyteller chimes in to clarify the real value of RLEC if we do not trade it.

The only reason that RLEC holds any value this summer is because it probably puts the Blazers below the cap if they don't trade him, giving them cap room to either make a FA signing or an unbalanced trade. For comparison, Wally Szczerbiak also has an expiring contract but he doesn't have any value to the Cavs this summer because you take his contract off the books and the Cavs are still above the cap.

So RLEC is unique. He has tremendous trade value today, but he also holds value to the Blazers in the sense that just letting him expire gives them cap room to make a deal this summer.

Holding RLEC does bring value to the Blazers - it's just not value in trading him. It might be value in making a trade using the cap space that he represents, but it is not ‘trade value for RLEC'.

 

[e_blazer]

Don't forget that next summer Blake, Outlaw, or Frye could be included in a sign-and-trade deal and that the Blazers can take back more than they send out. The FA market isn't the only option.

Still, I'd much rather see a deal done today.

 

[Ed O]

Storyteller chimes in to clarify the real value of RLEC if we do not trade it.

The only reason that RLEC holds any value this summer is because it probably puts the Blazers below the cap if they don't trade him, giving them cap room to either make a FA signing or an unbalanced trade. For comparison, Wally Szczerbiak also has an expiring contract but he doesn't have any value to the Cavs this summer because you take his contract off the books and the Cavs are still above the cap.

So RLEC is unique. He has tremendous trade value today, but he also holds value to the Blazers in the sense that just letting him expire gives them cap room to make a deal this summer.

Holding RLEC does bring value to the Blazers - it's just not value in trading him. It might be value in making a trade using the cap space that he represents, but it is not ‘trade value for RLEC'.

I remember when he was LasVegasBlazersFan.

Oh, Storyteller, why have you foresaken us?



Ed O.

 

[Haakzilla]

Free Agents List: 2009 and 2010

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10

 

[BrianFromWA]

Don't forget that next summer Blake, Outlaw, or Frye could be included in a sign-and-trade deal and that the Blazers can take back more than they send out. The FA market isn't the only option.

Still, I'd much rather see a deal done today.

Frye can't unless you want a 10M or so cap hold. I don't think KP/TP do.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

Here's the guy we want either now or this summer.........

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3231

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

So, all told, how much cap room are we going to have next summer if we let RLEC expire?

 

[BrianFromWA]

If the cap stays as-is, 7M.

If the cap goes down, (like Stern said it probably would), probably 5M or so.

If we don't pick up TrOut and Blake's options, 13-15M.

If we don't pick up TrOut and Blake's options and Miles is removed from the books through appeal, 22-24M.

 

[Ed O]

So, all told, how much cap room are we going to have next summer if we let RLEC expire?

We don't know for sure until we know the salary cap figure.

Then you need to figure out who of Outlaw/Blake/Frye you're going to renounce to clear more space.

Ed O.

 

[Reep]

But you shouldn't assume the cap is staying at 58.8. The league has notified the teams that the cap will be lower.

barfo

.A. Adande: The salary cap is expected to drop next season, with a league memo suggesting a hypothetical number of $57.3 million, according to two team executives.

A drop of $1.5M may still allow the same type of deals to be made. A drop in the cap also puts other teams that much more over the cap.

 

[Ed O]

A drop of $1.5M may still allow the same type of deals to be made. A drop in the cap also puts other teams that much more over the cap.

So if it drops $1.5m and we renounce Frye but keep Blake and Outlaw under their present deals, that means we'll be at $5.5m under the cap.

What's the MLE again?

Ed O.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Doesn't matter, really, how much over the cap you are until lux tax threshold is in view, and honestly they have all year to get under that.

A drop of 1.5M means we'll have 5.5M to use...just about exactly the MLE. Unless we don't pick up Blake/Outlaw's options and renounce Frye. But if we were doing that, why not trade them today and get something for them?

 

[Reep]

So if it drops $1.5m and we renounce Frye but keep Blake and Outlaw under their present deals, that means we'll be at $5.5m under the cap.

What's the MLE again?

Ed O.

True, but you also have the flexibility of having more if you do drop Blake/Outlaw.

You also can use the the $5.5 in a lopsided trade, which you can't do with the MLE.

I'm not sure how the TE can be added, but there must be a way it can be used in trade also.

 

[RR7]

I thought I read that if you are under the cap, you do not get TPE. I could be wrong. But if that's the case, then those deals with Blake and Outlaw don't do anything for us. In order to maximize our cap space, we have to renounce Blake and Outlaw. And then hope we cna sign or trade for someone. There aren't many signing possibilities that are really enticing. So we would need to look at trade. Detroit would be in the same position. So potentially will Memphis and a couple of other teams, I think. So we compete with them to make those instant cost saving trades. It would stand to reason we might have to throw something extra in to get a deal done. Possibly a young player, who knows. So then you're looking at a trade of RLEC, Outlaw, Blake, and whatever else it may take, to get a player we want. If we pay all that in the summer, why not pay that now, and increase the possibility of playing past the first round of the playoffs?

 

[Reep]

But if we were doing that, why not trade them today and get something for them?

Maybe KP will. KP is a gambler, and he is playing against three others in this game. He only has to beat one of them.

He will not walk away empty handed though. This gamble is backed up by the ability to do something else this Summer.

If I could bet on 3:1 odds and then still walk away with 80% of my bet if I didn't win I'd play the game and hold too.

 

[BIG Q]

A thing to remember is that if we let Raef expire and then do a deal where we send out our cap space in a trade is that we will be creating a TPE for the other team. That could be a valuable chip to a team such as Charlotte possibly. Just something to consider as another asset to offer.