Complementing Brandon Roy

[Minstrel]

This is an interesting article from Basketball Prospectus about what type of player would best complement Roy in the backcourt. He creates a class of "initiators," which he feels Roy falls into, and evaluates what types of players tend to fit best alongside intitiators and which players in the league fit that type.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=441

The bigger factor may be this: To be effective, Rodriguez needs the ball in his hands. So too does Roy, a conflict which has meant the two have spent little time on the floor together this season--just 35 minutes through the year's first nine games. Since Roy has averaged nearly 39 minutes a night, that leaves precious little time for Rodriguez.

Rodriguez's status, then, is wrapped up in a bigger question for the Blazers: How do they best complement Roy in the backcourt? Roy is part of a general class of players I'll term "initiators," who break the traditional mold of point guard, shooting guard or even small forward. While not point guards in the traditional sense, these players tend to have the ball in their hands more often than anyone else on their team because of their overall ability and the quality of their decision-making. Besides Roy, Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade are obvious contemporary examples, while Michael Jordan is perhaps the ultimate progenitor of this group.

What kind of player makes sense alongside an initiator? The great Michael Jordan Bulls teams offer a couple of different examples. Both Ron Harper and Steve Kerr were good enough ballhandlers to keep Jordan from having to bring the ball upcourt, though neither was a true point guard. Harper brought outstanding size and length to the position as a converted shooting guard and helped anchor Chicago's defense. Kerr, meanwhile, was one of the great shooters in league history, keeping defenses honest.

In a follow-up entry, Herrington suggested three attributes of an ideal partner for Mayo that we can apply more generally:

1. Would be able to bring the ball up under pressure so Mayo doesn't have to and perform other basic ball-handling point guard duties.

2. Would be able to play off the ball in halfcourt sets and knock down open jumpers, particularly from three-point range.

3. Would be an effective and versatile defender.

That doesn't sound that difficult. By themselves, none of those qualities is exceptionally valuable. Combining all three, however, is rarer than you might think.

For all the talk of complementing Roy, the Blazers already have a pretty good fit in Blake. His sure ballhandling is a nice fit, and Blake is plenty capable of knocking down open looks from the perimeter. The problem is that Blake, just 28, seems to have lost a step defensively. The Blazers have had major problems defending smaller guards this season, part of the reason Portland is 28th in the NBA in Defensive Rating.

As for possible trade targets, Terry could become available at some point if the Mavericks decide to shake things up. Along with Mo Williams, Cleveland's new complement to James, Terry represents the ultimate in scoring threats who don't need the ball. Even despite less-than-ideal ability on the defensive end, Terry could be an interesting fit.

The other guy worth discussing doesn't appear on this list. Kirk Hinrich, Herrington's ideal partner for an initiator, is technically ineligible because he averaged slightly too many touches per 100 possessions last year (70.9). Hinrich also would not have qualified for the list because he had an off season from the three-point line in 2007-08, hitting a career-low 35.0 percent from downtown. The year before that, Hinrich was at 41.5 percent, and even though he is better defensively against off guards he's the best defensive player in this group.

 

[Mediocre Man]

But I thought Hinrich wasn't an upgrade?

 

[Nikolokolus]

But I thought Hinrich wasn't an upgrade?

He's clearly not, plus Sergio is going to be an all-star, Roy is expendable now that we have Rudy, the spurs are going to trade Tony Parker for Raef's expiring deal and the Tooth Fairy ran out on Santa Claus hooking up with the Easter Bunny.

Anything else you wan't cleared up?

 

[Tortimer]

Sounds a lot like Bayless to me. If he was a veteran everyone would be saying he is a perfect fit to play along side Roy IMO.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Sounds a lot like Bayless to me. If he was a veteran everyone would be saying he is a perfect fit to play along side Roy IMO.

Who knows, he might develop into that in a couple of years.

I initially scoffed at the Hinrich rumor that surfaced today, and trading for him would certainly be unable to pay any dividends for a few more months, but maybe it wouldn't be so bad for Jerryd to come off the bench for a year or so behind Captain Kirk as our fourth guard before he's put into the starting role ... frankly I think the chances of that are remote considering his temperament (doesn't exactly seem like a dude filled with patience) but at the very least you'd think he would have some value as part of a trade package around the league should the need ever arise.

 

[handiman]

I think MJ and Kobe belong in a different group from Wade and Roy. MJ and Kobe were/are quite good at playing off the ball, posting up, etc. Initiating the offense was probably less than half their game.

I do like the idea of Jason Terry, though. Seems like a good fit. Is he close with Martell?

 

[andalusian]

Bayless sure seems like he is worth getting some burn to find out how he really works with Roy. He can bring the ball up-court, he can defend - but can he hit the open 3 consistently?

Makes you wonder about Sergio's increased play - is it really because the Blazers want to help Rudy adjust, is it because they are showcasing him or is it simply a case of him earning the minutes based on his improvement and situational match-ups?

Interesting article.

 

[Blazed]

I do like the idea of Jason Terry, though. Seems like a good fit. Is he close with Martell?

They are cousins i'm sure they are close...

 

[Minstrel]

I think MJ and Kobe belong in a different group from Wade and Roy. MJ and Kobe were/are quite good at playing off the ball, posting up, etc. Initiating the offense was probably less than half their game.

Jordan, in his early career, was often the team's best distributor as well as scorer. He even led the league in triple-doubles one year. Then Pippen developed into a point forward of sorts, which meant Jordan didn't need to handle the ball as much. But I'd say Jordan definitely had that type of ability and used it a lot, early on.

Kobe Bryant often functioned as the team's defacto floor leader in the championship years. Fisher was just a role-player...Kobe had the ball in his hands most of the time and made most of the on-floor decisions. Phil Jackson has praised Kobe's ability to run the point.

I'd put both in the "initiator" class.

As for Roy's backcourt mate, I'm becoming more and more interested in Hinrich. His defense is a very big selling point to me. If he can get back to knocking down outside shots, he'd be really good in that role.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Bayless sure seems like he is worth getting some burn to find out how he really works with Roy. He can bring the ball up-court, he can defend - but can he hit the open 3 consistently?

Makes you wonder about Sergio's increased play - is it really because the Blazers want to help Rudy adjust, is it because they are showcasing him or is it simply a case of him earning the minutes based on his improvement and situational match-ups?

Interesting article.

They may not all be mutually exclusive factors. I think a couple of things have happened: Basically I think El Chacho hit the start button on the countdown timer for his career as a Blazer (and possibly as a player in the NBA) and they're giving him a longer look in the lineup sooner than they might have otherwise. Sergio's agent spouting off and demanding a trade has probably forced Nate and KP to have a sit down and figure out what they are going to do (I have a feeling their relationship is much more collaborative than dictatorial; regarding KP telling Nate what will and won't occur with respect to PT). If Sergio starts blowing up and completely owning the point guard position, then problem solved and he's earned the spot, if he continues to idle about where he is now -- struggling on defense and with consistency in his shot, despite taking better care of the ball and getting assists at a high rate, I think he's gone by February in some kind of trade.

The only question becomes how much value does he actually have around the league as essentially a one tool player?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

1. Would be able to bring the ball up under pressure so Mayo doesn't have to and perform other basic ball-handling point guard duties.

2. Would be able to play off the ball in halfcourt sets and knock down open jumpers, particularly from three-point range.

3. Would be an effective and versatile defender.

People have disagreed with me before, but I still like a certain player who is averaging 11.4 pts/game in 23.1 min,
shooting .437 from the field and .419 from 3-pt land. He can defend, he's quick, and really shoot the 3.
Some of you may have heard of him...Aaron Brooks!

 

[hasoos]

I don't see whats wrong with the Rudy/Roy lineup. I think when it comes down to it, the only problem with it so far, has been they haven't been on the floor enough together.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

 

[shamelessblazer]

I still think Roy needs to learn to play more off the ball. He had a sick post up game his rookie year, his outside shot is improving, and with Aldridge and Oden posting up we need guys shooting down the lane for easy buckets to rotate through constantly (ala lakers 2000), as much as I hated those laker teams they knew how to use shaq and make him look like a good passer (when all he was doing was handing it off). Roy learning to play off the ball will help him get more easy buckets, make LMA and Oden get better matchups (and easy assists), and sustain his durability (rather than driving down the throat of the defense every play).

 

[mook]

People have disagreed with me before, but I still like a certain player who is averaging 11.4 pts/game in 23.1 min,
shooting .437 from the field and .419 from 3-pt land. He can defend, he's quick, and really shoot the 3.
Some of you may have heard of him...Aaron Brooks!

Definitely an interesting idea. I wonder if it'd be worth it to deal Bayless straight up for him. They seem to have a similar level of talent and competitive fire, although Brooks is more of a perimeter scorer and Bayless is more of a finisher in the paint.

Bayless has about 3 inches and maybe 35 pounds on Brooks, so you can see why Bayless was picked so much higher. Houston would have to find something else to throw into the deal to balance out the talent disparity.

But I could see how Brooks might fit this team....

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Before the season started, the only thing I was worried about with a Roy/Rudy backcourt was that Roy would be alone in bringing the ball up the court. But seriously, Rudy has the handles to do whatever he wants on the court.

To me, Rudy fulfills those three points well. He can spot up, work without the ball, help Roy out on bringing the ball up court, and isn't a bad defender. Plus, you can run a fast/slow offense, where Roy runs the halfcourt sets, but Rudy runs the fast break. Hopefully with Oden, there will be plenty of both.

 

[handiman]

They are cousins i'm sure they are close...

I know they're cousins, that's why I asked about the connection which would have otherwise been out of the blue... TMac and Vince are cousins, but they weren't exactly close.

Jordan and Kobe ... I'd put both in the "initiator" class.

In the theme of the article, the key difference is whether they can be initiators or whether they have to be. MJ and Kobe did just fine either way. The prevailing opinion is that Roy has to be the initiator to be effective. (As shamelessblazer pointed out, I'm not entirely sure that's true or if it's just the way he's being utilized nowadays.) Same for Wade, in my opinion.

 

[rocketeer]

Definitely an interesting idea. I wonder if it'd be worth it to deal Bayless straight up for him. They seem to have a similar level of talent and competitive fire, although Brooks is more of a perimeter scorer and Bayless is more of a finisher in the paint.

Bayless has about 3 inches and maybe 35 pounds on Brooks, so you can see why Bayless was picked so much higher. Houston would have to find something else to throw into the deal to balance out the talent disparity.

But I could see how Brooks might fit this team....

bayless and brooks do not have a similar level of talent. bayless is without question more talented. his extra size gives him a big advantage on the defensive end as well.

that said, i don't think the rockets would be interested in trading brooks. it would have to be something too good to pass up that would vastly improve their shot at a championship this year and for the next couple of years. i mean brooks is the only player on the rockets who is actually playing well this season.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I agree that Rudy, Bayless and Koponen all fit that description. (As does Blake) The only concern i would have for Jason Terry is he is 31 and has 4 years left on his contract. Not sure I like that.

I just see no reason getting a vet with Rudy around. He is already plays like a Vet, and he needs minutes. Bayless is a rookie that needs minutes. Something better has to come along for me to want to make a change.

 

[andalusian]

Rudy is a better defender than I was afraid he would be - but he is not exactly a stopper. It will be interesting to see how much he improves on the defensive end as he gets used to the NBA play.

 

[Tortimer]

Who knows, he might develop into that in a couple of years.

I initially scoffed at the Hinrich rumor that surfaced today, and trading for him would certainly be unable to pay any dividends for a few more months, but maybe it wouldn't be so bad for Jerryd to come off the bench for a year or so behind Captain Kirk as our fourth guard before he's put into the starting role ... frankly I think the chances of that are remote considering his temperament (doesn't exactly seem like a dude filled with patience) but at the very least you'd think he would have some value as part of a trade package around the league should the need ever arise.

What Hinrich rumor? I can't find a rumor about the Blazers trading for Hinrich anywhere? I doubt KP would even think about trading for Hinrich. He hasn't played well last year or this year and is injured now. I would be pissed if we traded for Hinrich and played him ahead of Bayless. I would rather go with Blake/Sergio and Bayless then trading for Hinrich.

 

[illmatic99]

Rudy is a better defender than I was afraid he would be - but he is not exactly a stopper. It will be interesting to see how much he improves on the defensive end as he gets used to the NBA play.

I don't buy the whole "we need a stopper at point guard" theory. Take Parker in San Antonio, for example. No one in their right minds would call him a defensive stopper. Hell, I consider him below average individually, but for the Spurs, Bowen usually guards the opposition's best perimeter player. That's where Batum comes in. If he can develop into our very own Bowen, then I don't think it will matter who we start at point, be it Rudy, Bayless, or Sergio.

 

[andalusian]

I don't buy the whole "we need a stopper at point guard" theory. Take Parker in San Antonio, for example. No one in their right minds would call him a defensive stopper. Hell, I consider him below average individually, but for the Spurs, Bowen usually guards the opposition's best perimeter player. That's where Batum comes in. If he can develop into our very own Bowen, then I don't think it will matter who we start at point, be it Rudy, Bayless, or Sergio.

If Batum develops into a Bowen type perimeter defender I would agree with you - but this is yet to be seen - and while I am as high on Batum as any of our other SF prospects (I think he is our SF of the future) - it is still premature to assume he will be able to do what Bowen does on opposing team's quick point-guards.

 

[Minstrel]

I'm not sure Rudy has the ball-handling chops to consistently bring the ball up the court against pressure. Ball-handling was one of his weaknesses in Europe and I can't tell from the games so far how much he's progressed at it. Most of his best plays have been working off the ball and hitting tough shots or making nice finishes.

 

[Natebishop3]

Hmm.... Monta Ellis?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Hmm.... Monta Ellis?

A player I see Bayless turning into. We have to be patient with Bayless. The kid is going to be very good. Kirk is a nice stop gap until JB is ready.