"Contender" MIA vs. "Rebuilding" POR?

[BrianFromWA]

A quickie analysis of 2022-23 MIA vs. 2023-24 POR (in a world where this never happened and Dame plays with no trade on the team as-is---maybe getting a big guy or two from the scrap heaps)

In 2022-23, MIA famously was a play-in team that made the Finals. On March 3 (about the latest day you could say we weren't in "Full Tank"), we were 2.5 games behind them. And only 3.5 out of 6th in the playoff race (and 5.5 behind #4 and HCA). And it wasn't that we were overperforming while they weren't living up to their talent level.

Top 7 (talent):
Butler vs. Dame
Bam vs. Grant
Herro vs. Simons
Strus vs. Sharpe
Vincent vs. Scoot
Martin vs. Nas or Thybulle
Lowry vs. Nurk
Oladipo vs. Thybulle or Nas

Deep Rotation/Bench (averaged >410 min--5mpg): Love, Highsmith, Duncan and ORob

Our Deep Rotation/Bench : Murray, Rupert, Jabari

Now, let's just say that, at the Deadline, Pat Riley had decided "we're barely .500 and we have BOS, PHI, and MIL running away with the conference, to say nothing of the other teams ahead of us in the standings...let's trade Jimmy or Bam to POR for a crappy return like Simons and 2 firsts."
A) He'd probably be ridiculed, B) probably would have gotten them a pretty high lotto pick, and C) the Blazers now have a "veteran" to play with Dame. But let's go down the list as if that didn't happen. Which major talent deficiencies does the 2023-24 Blazers team (as currently constructed and with a motivated Dame) have that makes them a "get the hell out" team, and MIA a "them boys good, they good!!" capital-c Contender?

Honestly, if Dame would've laid the blame on Coach Billups and said something to the effect (quietly) or "him or me, because we just saw what a good coach can do, even with less-than-stellar talent", I don't know that many disagree and Chauncey may be gone. If he said "I have no friends on this team because there aren't other 30y/os (forgetting for a second that they overpaid for his friend Nurk and overpaid for his friend Grant), so I'd like to go to a more veteran team more in my timeline", I don't know that there's that much of a backlash.

But if you just go down that list of talent, and how they performed last year until POR shut it down and MIA barely made it out of the playin game, I don't know how you say "MIA is a way better basketball situation for me to be a winner, and so much so that I will only go there"....I just don't see it. As we've said, if he said something like "bring me deals you like and I'll consider them, but I'm likely only going to an East Coast contender"--we'd be sad but he might already be traded. I don't know what the aich-ee-double-hockey-sticks he and his team are doing.

 

[Hoopguru]

A quickie analysis of 2022-23 MIA vs. 2023-24 POR (in a world where this never happened and Dame plays with no trade on the team as-is---maybe getting a big guy or two from the scrap heaps)

In 2022-23, MIA famously was a play-in team that made the Finals. On March 3 (about the latest day you could say we were in "Full Tank"), we were 2.5 games behind them. And only 3.5 out of 6th in the playoff race (and 5.5 behind #4 and HCA). And it wasn't that we were overperforming while they weren't living up to their talent level.

Top 7 (talent):
Butler vs. Dame
Bam vs. Grant
Herro vs. Simons
Strus vs. Sharpe
Vincent vs. Scoot
Martin vs. Nas or Thybulle
Lowry vs. Nurk
Oladipo vs. Thybulle or Nas

Deep Rotation/Bench (averaged >410 min--5mpg): Love, Highsmith, Duncan and ORob

Our Deep Rotation/Bench : Murray, Rupert, Jabari

Now, let's just say that, at the Deadline, Pat Riley had decided "we're barely .500 and we have BOS, PHI, and MIL running away with the conference, to say nothing of the other teams ahead of us in the standings...let's trade Jimmy or Bam to POR for a crappy return like Simons and 2 firsts."
A) He'd probably be ridiculed, B) probably would have gotten them a pretty high lotto pick, and C) the Blazers now have a "veteran" to play with Dame. But let's go down the list as if that didn't happen. Which major talent deficiencies does the 2023-24 Blazers team (as currently constructed and with a motivated Dame) have that makes them a "get the hell out" team, and MIA a "them boys good, they good!!" capital-c Contender?

Honestly, if Dame would've laid the blame on Coach Billups and said something to the effect (quietly) or "him or me, because we just saw what a good coach can do, even with less-than-stellar talent", I don't know that many disagree and Chauncey may be gone. If he said "I have no friends on this team because there aren't other 30y/os (forgetting for a second that they overpaid for his friend Nurk and overpaid for his friend Grant), so I'd like to go to a more veteran team more in my timeline", I don't know that there's that much of a backlash.

But if you just go down that list of talent, and how they performed last year until POR shut it down and MIA barely made it out of the playin game, I don't know how you say "MIA is a way better basketball situation for me to be a winner, and so much so that I will only go there"....I just don't see it. As we've said, if he said something like "bring me deals you like and I'll consider them, but I'm likely only going to an East Coast contender"--we'd be sad but he might already be traded. I don't know what the aich-ee-double-hockey-sticks he and his team are doing.

good take!
Something must of went terribly wrong to piss Dame off.
The truth will come out in due time.

 

[Graduate32]

This is a fun analysis, and at least a worthwhile question to pose. Thanks! I think Miami is clearly in a better position than Portland is or was. Miami was clearly coasting through most of the season and had certainly demonstrated in the past that they are able to turn it on when their backs against the wall (as evidence this year).

However, I also think they are being overrated as a championship contender going into next season as it currently stands. For all of the talk of the vaunted "Heat culture" (and it's hard to deny that there is at least some truth to it), Jimmy Butler and the Heat went on an incredible hot streak through the first three rounds of the playoffs. I've mentioned this before, but for example: the Heat had three games all season in which they shot greater than 50% from three... they had three games alone in which this was the case in the series against Boston. I won't discount their performance against the Bucks, but certainly they benefited from an injured Giannis and a Butler - MJ impression in the first round. Their victory against the Knicks was definitely "on the level," but is anyone really that impressed with that Knicks team?

Going into the season (sans Dame trade), it still seems possible that people might favor the Bucks, the Celtics, and even some the Sixers (Harden dependent) in the East, no? And this also assumes no growth from the Knicks and Cavs or a bounce-back season from the Hawks (who did beat the Heat in the first play-in game mind you). And this year's version is without Strus and Vincent, Jimmy and Kyle are a year older, etc. The Heat are a good team, better and tougher than the Blazers to be sure, but as you point out, I think the divide might be closer than many believe.

I know that Pat Riley is a vaunted negotiator, but I don't know how you look at that Heat roster after this long past season, and feel comfortable simply running it back with marginal replacements. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Heat regress to their mean as their roster currently stands. And as such, it is hard to argue that the Blazers don't have leverage in these discussions. I'd argue it is far more important to the Heat that Dame goes to Miami than it is for the Blazers to trade Dame off their roster given the direction of each franchise heading into next season.

 

[e_blazer]

A quickie analysis of 2022-23 MIA vs. 2023-24 POR (in a world where this never happened and Dame plays with no trade on the team as-is---maybe getting a big guy or two from the scrap heaps)

In 2022-23, MIA famously was a play-in team that made the Finals. On March 3 (about the latest day you could say we were in "Full Tank"), we were 2.5 games behind them. And only 3.5 out of 6th in the playoff race (and 5.5 behind #4 and HCA). And it wasn't that we were overperforming while they weren't living up to their talent level.

Top 7 (talent):
Butler vs. Dame
Bam vs. Grant
Herro vs. Simons
Strus vs. Sharpe
Vincent vs. Scoot
Martin vs. Nas or Thybulle
Lowry vs. Nurk
Oladipo vs. Thybulle or Nas

Deep Rotation/Bench (averaged >410 min--5mpg): Love, Highsmith, Duncan and ORob

Our Deep Rotation/Bench : Murray, Rupert, Jabari

Now, let's just say that, at the Deadline, Pat Riley had decided "we're barely .500 and we have BOS, PHI, and MIL running away with the conference, to say nothing of the other teams ahead of us in the standings...let's trade Jimmy or Bam to POR for a crappy return like Simons and 2 firsts."
A) He'd probably be ridiculed, B) probably would have gotten them a pretty high lotto pick, and C) the Blazers now have a "veteran" to play with Dame. But let's go down the list as if that didn't happen. Which major talent deficiencies does the 2023-24 Blazers team (as currently constructed and with a motivated Dame) have that makes them a "get the hell out" team, and MIA a "them boys good, they good!!" capital-c Contender?

Honestly, if Dame would've laid the blame on Coach Billups and said something to the effect (quietly) or "him or me, because we just saw what a good coach can do, even with less-than-stellar talent", I don't know that many disagree and Chauncey may be gone. If he said "I have no friends on this team because there aren't other 30y/os (forgetting for a second that they overpaid for his friend Nurk and overpaid for his friend Grant), so I'd like to go to a more veteran team more in my timeline", I don't know that there's that much of a backlash.

But if you just go down that list of talent, and how they performed last year until POR shut it down and MIA barely made it out of the playin game, I don't know how you say "MIA is a way better basketball situation for me to be a winner, and so much so that I will only go there"....I just don't see it. As we've said, if he said something like "bring me deals you like and I'll consider them, but I'm likely only going to an East Coast contender"--we'd be sad but he might already be traded. I don't know what the aich-ee-double-hockey-sticks he and his team are doing.

I think Dame’s clearly stated concern with the Blazers’ roster isn’t talent but experience. I really think that Joe could have done the same drafting that he did and kept Dame satisfied if he had simply been able to re-sign Grant and bring one other upper-tier vet to the roster. The move that he purportedly tried to make after re-signing Grant was to trade Simons and picks for OG. Masai nixed the deal and Dame got pissed that the team wasn’t taking his requests seriously. Nothing left but finger-pointing and a power match between Joe, Riley and Dame’s agent.

 

[Hoopguru]

I think Dame’s clearly stated concern with the Blazers’ roster isn’t talent but experience. I really think that Joe could have done the same drafting that he did and kept Dame satisfied if he had simply been able to re-sign Grant and bring one other upper-tier vet to the roster. The move that he purportedly tried to make after re-signing Grant was to trade Simons and picks for OG. Masai nixed the deal and Dame got pissed that the team wasn’t taking his requests seriously. Nothing left but finger-pointing and a power match between Joe, Riley and Dame’s agent.

I noticed that Bert was seated next to Joe at the game, I just got the feeling that he calls a lot of shots with regards, to direction.

 

[Cugel]

Well that’s why Dame wanted Blevins , all that experience.