Science Covid Vs. the Flu....apples to oranges?

[julius]

Agreed. I'll concede there is a number of unreported covid cases, but the numbers in those studies are far overinflated

Not only that, I think the death #'s are of people who actually tested positive for it. It's like there's some liberal conspiracy out there to start assigning random deaths to Covid to tarnish Trump.

It's similar to the illegal voting conspiracies that you hear all the time, which are not based in reality.

 

[CupWizier]

Agreed. I'll concede there is a number of unreported covid cases, but the numbers in those studies are far overinflated

But as trump pointed out, if we test less we will have fewer cases. Such a stable genius.

 

[julius]

Plus, I know it's just an easy way to distract people from stuff. Like, someone who pulls a fire alarm during the finals.

 

[Chris Craig]

But as trump pointed out, if we test less we will have fewer cases. Such a stable genius.

And thus less deaths. Sick bastard

 

[magnifier661]

That has nothing to do with death rate. 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths.

You can make up all the shit you want, but that doesn't change things.

You have the right to your own opinions, you just don't have the right to your own facts.

Lmao! The deaths are the same. The confirmed infected is 1.5 million. The “antibodies studies” which measure those infected and recovered have a result of 50-85x more infections than the confirmed infected. 50 x 1.5 million = 70 million infected on the low end. On the high end 85 x 1.5 million = 127.5 million. The confirmed mortality is still 85k

Stanford Study: https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...ers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

USC study: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

New York Study: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new...ents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

Florida Miami Study: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

Florida Tampa Study: https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/04/23/covid-19-antibody-testing-in-tampa-bay

Get your shit outta here!

 

[CupWizier]

And thus less deaths. Sick bastard

I guess he uses the theory of out of sight out of mind. If we don't test at all we will have no illnesses and no deaths by trumps theory.

 

[Road Ratt]

It gives people a way to look at it in such a way as to dismiss that these statistics are on actual people, who are dying all around America, right now.

Diminishing those deaths doesn't make their point any stronger...

 

[magnifier661]

It gives people a way to look at it in such a way as to dismiss that these statistics are on actual people, who are dying all around America, right now.

Diminishing those deaths doesn't make their point any stronger...

Who is diminishing deaths? They haven’t changed.

 

[riverman]

I definitely think he's wrong about his assumption on mortality. Some people have latched onto a couple of fairly discredited studies that haven't been peer-reviewed that asserted the infection rate was 50-90 times higher that the number of positive cases. Those number just don't withstand any scrutiny...at all

now, go with the assumption that Covid mortality is less than the flu. With 90,000 dead from Covid and the flu having a mortality rate of 0.1%, that would mean that over 90 million Americans have/had Covid. That's higher than 1 in 4...and that's ridiculous

but more than that is what the article I posted in the OP made clear is that if Covid was 'calculated' with similar algorithms and co-efficiency as the CDC uses for flu, that 90,000 number would likely be in the 150,000-200,000 level right now, if not a little higher. And that would mean that half of America has already had Covid...yeah, magical thinking

now, I'd certainly say the infection rate is much higher than the current official count. Maybe 10 times higher seems about right? That would put current Covid mortality at 0.6%, which is probably closer to the real number. The only hitch to that I see is that when we had tested 3 million people we had a mortality rate of 5.2%. We've now tested 12 million and the mortality rate is 5.96%. It should be going the other direction if the actual mortality rate is less than 1%

you can get a flu shot every season...not a covid 19 shot..that's where the comparison stops in it's tracks for me.....I had the flu at Xmas...didn't kill me, pretty sure with my heart disease covid 19 will kill me...it's a lot more deadly than the flu I had from all studies I've read so far...and according to my friend who is a biotechnician in Taiwan studying the stuff....she says this is way worse than the flu we have seasonally and much worse than SARS....also much more contagious

 

[H.C.]

Agreed. I'll concede there is a number of unreported covid cases, but the numbers in those studies are far overinflated

Are they tho?
As I said a couple weeks ago. Intel Ronler Acers campus had 2 confirmed cases of Covid19.
They tracked it to a on site taco truck.
This taco truck serves FAR more daily people than just two people. Hell I've been told at times it's a 45 minute wait in line.
Intel ronler acers still only has two confirmed cases of Covid19.

With how infectious Covid19 is. Is it logical to believe this campus only had two cases of Covid19? Or is it logical to believe many people at this site were asymptomatic, thought it was allergies, or didn't get a high enough dose to notice anything.

I'm not trying to frame this in a way that counters the points made health officials. But at some point people have to stop thinking like sheep and be open to other possibilities.

Then who are we testing? We're only testing people with symptoms. Not testing everyone whos come in contact with it.

 

[CupWizier]

Lmao! The deaths are the same. The confirmed infected is 1.5 million. The “antibodies studies” which measure those infected and recovered have a result of 50-85x more infections than the confirmed infected. 50 x 1.5 million = 70 million infected on the low end. On the high end 85 x 1.5 million = 127.5 million. The confirmed mortality is still 85k

Stanford Study: https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...ers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

USC study: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

New York Study: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new...ents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

Florida Miami Study: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

Florida Tampa Study: https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/04/23/covid-19-antibody-testing-in-tampa-bay

Get your shit outta here!

GET YOUR SHIT OUT OF HERE


https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-per...us-covid-19-death-toll-likely-higher-reported

 

[CupWizier]

Who is diminishing deaths? They haven’t changed.

You do not know that as a fact and it has been studied and shown that the amount of deaths is greater than what is being reported. If cases are greater than reported then it's logical deaths are greater than reported as many deasths have been attributed to other causes.

Truth doesn't care about your feelings.

 

[julius]

Lmao! The deaths are the same. The confirmed infected is 1.5 million. The “antibodies studies” which measure those infected and recovered have a result of 50-85x more infections than the confirmed infected. 50 x 1.5 million = 70 million infected on the low end. On the high end 85 x 1.5 million = 127.5 million. The confirmed mortality is still 85k

Stanford Study: https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/...ers-test-3200-people-for-covid-19-antibodies/

USC study: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/results-antibody-test-study-reveal-covid-19-cases/story?id=70249753

New York Study: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new...ents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html

Florida Miami Study: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

Florida Tampa Study: https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2020/04/23/covid-19-antibody-testing-in-tampa-bay

Get your shit outta here!

So...If you see what the articles say, they suggest a variety of guesses, but mostly from 6% to 14% of the population might have it. Not sure where you're getting the 50 to 80X's there.

Let's go with 15%. 15% of 330 million is about 50 million. If there's 50 million people who have the flu, it's expected that about 50K people would die. So far, we have more than 50K people dying.

20% is 66K. Still lower.
30% is 90K. Finally higher. So to meet the same death rate of the flu, Covid would need at least a min of 25% infected citizens. And those articles gave estimates of 5%-15%, not 25%-30%.

 

[magnifier661]

So...If you see what the articles say, they suggest a variety of guesses, but mostly from 6% to 14% of the population might have it. Not sure where you're getting the 50 to 80X's there.

Let's go with 15%. 15% of 330 million is about 50 million. If there's 50 million people who have the flu, it's expected that about 50K people would die. So far, we have more than 50K people dying.

20% is 66K. Still lower.
30% is 90K. Finally higher. So to meet the same death rate of the flu, Covid would need at least a min of 25% infected citizens. And those articles gave estimates of 5%-15%, not 25%-30%.

The USC and Stanford study had the 50-85x confirmed infected. The New York and Florida are population percentages. That was only being 2 months into the season. Let’s see where the numbers land with more antibodies testing, which should have results at the end of this month.

 

[tlongII]

Many people are not strong in math and statistical analysis.

 

[julius]

The USC and Stanford study had the 50-85x confirmed infected. The New York and Florida are population percentages. That was only being 2 months into the season. Let’s see where the numbers land with more antibodies testing, which should have results at the end of this month.

I think the issue is, you're confusing math here. It's like going from 1 to 2. That's a 200% increase. That doesn't mean things are 200% across the board. It's not how it works.

It's weird how you are so hell bent on downplaying this, as if it's some conspiracy against Trump and it's your god given duty to defend it.

 

[H.C.]

Many people are not strong in math and statistical analysis.

Is it that? Or is it people can't agree on which variables matter and which to leave out?
Just like politics, if you leave something out that could hurt your agenda. It paints your points to look far better than if you were to include it.

 

[magnifier661]

I mean, if you don't believe me, question Dr. Fauci.

When asked if its contagiousness are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”

 

[tlongII]

Is it that? Or is it people can't agree on which variables matter and which to leave out?
Just like politics, if you leave something out that could hurt your agenda. It paints your points to look far better than if you were to include it.

Probably a little of both.

 

[julius]

The USC and Stanford study had the 50-85x confirmed infected. The New York and Florida are population percentages. That was only being 2 months into the season. Let’s see where the numbers land with more antibodies testing, which should have results at the end of this month.

You seem to be ignoring the % they gave at the end, just so you can trumpet out (no pun intended) the "55X" number because it sounds like it would support your argument better. It's another one of your fallacies that you bring out in every argument/discussion you're in.

If the big argument is that they were underselling the total #'s by 55%. I get that. But you seem to be missing the point that would extrapolate to approx 5% of the county. You don't do 50-85X the total # of cases known in the US to get the total #. You go with the end # (the 5%) as the total number.

You're missing a step in the equation, because either you don't want to admit you were wrong about something, don't actually know how statistics work, or just like big shiny numbers.

 

[julius]

I mean, if you don't believe me, question Dr. Fauci.

When asked if its contagiousness are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”

Another logical fallacy, arguing against a point that A: no one has made and B: doesn't actually back what you initially said in any way shape or form.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Many people are not strong in math and statistical analysis.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I mean, if you don't believe me, question Dr. Fauci.

When asked if its contagiousness are worse than the flu, Fauci emphatically said, “Well yes, I mean it just is, and we’ve gotta face that fact.”

HOW CAN WE FACE SOMETHING WHEN WE'RE COVERING UP OUR FACES WITH MASKS?!?

 

[magnifier661]

Another logical fallacy, arguing against a point that A: no one has made and B: doesn't actually back what you initially said in any way shape or form.

Except it does support my case. My statement: Covid-19 does not have a higher percentage of mortality. Covid-19 is way more infectious than the flu. Covid-19 is a deadlier virus.

 

[riverman]

HOW CAN WE FACE SOMETHING WHEN WE'RE COVERING UP OUR FACES WITH MASKS?!?

How can we live the American dream when we're awake?

 

[julius]

Except it does support my case. My statement: Covid-19 does not have a higher percentage of mortality. Covid-19 is way more infectious than the flu. Covid-19 is a deadlier virus.

Here's where your double speak exposes you for being either purposely trying to double speak or you are completely unaware that you are talking out of both sides of the argument.

Thing is, there are these things called #'s. 80K in 2 months means it's deadlier than the Flu over the same period of time. About a 6th of the country gets the flu each year (approx 50 million). Of that #, about 50K will die. So right now, for the 2 month period of the massive covid 19 outbreak, we're already at 80K deaths.

So you seem to be arguing that Covid has an INSANELY higher infectious rate. Like, for 80K to die in as short of a time frame as it has been, they'd need something like 90 million people *already* infected.

Here, I'll give it another way.

The flu death rate averages out to about .001% (62k deaths for 59m illnesses = .001%. 62k deaths for 39m illnesses = .0016%. 24k deaths for 59m = .0004% and 24k deaths for 39m = .0006%).

If 80K people have died already, we'd need about 80 million people infected for it to be at the same general % of the flu. If it's 80 million people right now, thats a *quarter* of the country is sick. And I hate to break it to you, but a quarter of us aren't sick. Those #'s don't add up to the AT THE MOST 15% off those articles are implying.

And that's if it has the same mortality rate as the flu does. If the infectious rate is higher, as you admit to being the case, that would mean an even HIGHER % of people would be sick. And that after we spent the last 2 months quarantining and being super super cautious.

Your #'s don't add up.

 

[Lanny]

I think the mortality rate of Covid-19 is actually lower than the flu, but it’s infectious rate is vastly higher. That means COVID-19 is actually much deadlier to a population because the sheer numbers of infected cause more death.

The mortality rate of Covid-19 is about 35 times the mortality rate of the flu. The official mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% while the observed mortality rate of Covid-19 is about 3.5%. I can come up with documentation on those figures. I guess I'll have to ask for documentation of your numbers.

 

[magnifier661]

Here's where your double speak exposes you for being either purposely trying to double speak or you are completely unaware that you are talking out of both sides of the argument.

Thing is, there are these things called #'s. 80K in 2 months means it's deadlier than the Flu over the same period of time. About a 6th of the country gets the flu each year (approx 50 million). Of that #, about 50K will die. So right now, for the 2 month period of the massive covid 19 outbreak, we're already at 80K deaths.

So you seem to be arguing that Covid has an INSANELY higher infectious rate. Like, for 80K to die in as short of a time frame as it has been, they'd need something like 90 million people *already* infected.

Here, I'll give it another way.

The flu death rate averages out to about .001% (62k deaths for 59m illnesses = .001%. 62k deaths for 39m illnesses = .0016%. 24k deaths for 59m = .0004% and 24k deaths for 39m = .0006%).

If 80K people have died already, we'd need about 80 million people infected for it to be at the same general % of the flu. If it's 80 million people right now, thats a *quarter* of the country is sick. And I hate to break it to you, but a quarter of us aren't sick. Those #'s don't add up to the AT THE MOST 15% off those articles are implying.

And that's if it has the same mortality rate as the flu does. If the infectious rate is higher, as you admit to being the case, that would mean an even HIGHER % of people would be sick. And that after we spent the last 2 months quarantining and being super super cautious.

Your #'s don't add up.

Actually no. Dr. Fauci said there was an alarming 52% of infected were asymptomatic. They have no symptoms, develop antibodies and can still spread the disease.

 

[magnifier661]

The mortality rate of Covid-19 is about 35 times the mortality rate of the flu. The official mortality rate of the flu is about 0.1% while the observed mortality rate of Covid-19 is about 3.5%. I can come up with documentation on those figures. I guess I'll have to ask for documentation of your numbers.

I gave the documents of my numbers. Scroll back

 

[julius]

Actually no. Dr. Fauci said there was an alarming 52% of infected were asymptomatic. They have no symptoms, develop antibodies and can still spread the disease.

that number is meaningless in relation to the argument you're making. It's like you think you can just throw numbers out there and it makes your argument more sound.