Crimson the Cat
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http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/6/12/907007/the-trade
The gist of it is that adding Kirk Hinrich AND Tayshaun Prince is the ideal off-season goal. I couldn't agree more.
This is assuming we decide to take on Blake and Outlaw's next-year salaries, do not extend a qualifying offer to Frye, and we release all of our exceptions (mid-level, bi-annual, and the trade player exception).
- Trade 1: (after July 1st) Steve Blake for Kirk Hinrich. We absorb the salary with all our cap space. Bye-bye cap space.
- Trade 2: (after July 1st) Go after Tayshaun Prince. Dave lists a lot of ideas for ways to make salaries match up. The idea I like the best is sending Rudy Fernandez (yes IMO he must be included to get back Prince), Travis Outlaw, and Martell Webster. Because at this point we're giving up more than fair value, and because we've just depleted our bench of high-quality reserves, I would expect Detroit to include their first round draft pick (#15) to help us replenish our lost talent.
Our core of Hinrich, Roy, Prince, Aldridge, and Oden would be substantially better defensively and offensively. Championship window now open!
We would still have Bayless, Batum and Przybilla off the bench, which is better at those respective positions than we had last year.
What we have to then figure out is equalling or increasing our positional production at reserve shooting guard and reserve power forward. Keep in mind we still have the following assets: #15, #24, 4 second rounders, and Sergio's trade value. What's uncertain is how much over the salary cap Paul Allen wants to go. By adding that second 1st round draft pick, we would already be headed over the assumed salary cap (around $57M for next year). If both first rounders are stored away overseas, then we'd gain some marginal salary cap space back. I would assume that since the "championship window" is now clearly opened, Allen would at least be willing to go up to the luxury tax threshhold, which I've heard could be in the mid-$60Ms (much lower than last year). Considering we likely would add at least one first rounder's guaranteed rookie salary to the books taking us over the salary cap, and that we really only have Sergio's salary to offer in trade, we're very limited in who we can bring back, considering at this point we have to virtually match dollar for dollar what salary goes out with what comes in.
- IMO, the most critical position to focus on would be at shooting guard. Rudy did much more for this team in those 54 wins then maybe we realize. We could draft a polished player such as Wayne Ellington. We could trade for one using any of our existing assets; however, I don't see any guards worth moving for that would be less than the $2.25M maximum we could take back in salary if including Sergio in a deal. Wayne Ellington at #24 would be ideal IMO.
- That would leave our spot behind Lamarcus to tend to. We could deal with that using Detroit's #15. Gulp. Hansbrough. We could package Sergio before the the 1st of July to New York for their traded-player exception and then move our #15 for their #8 for Blair (assuming that NY likes Sergio more than whatever point guard is left at #8). We could also convince Joel Freeland that he could get big minutes if he came over now.
Adding Ellington and Freeland (or Hansbrough or Blair) seem like realistic options that are both attainable and would fit our culture.
With our second rounders, we could beef our depth back up with possibly Danny Green and a point guard. I'm not sure of this, but we could also then re-sign Frye.
All this and we'd be likely just under the luxury tax for this season.
The gist of it is that adding Kirk Hinrich AND Tayshaun Prince is the ideal off-season goal. I couldn't agree more.
This is assuming we decide to take on Blake and Outlaw's next-year salaries, do not extend a qualifying offer to Frye, and we release all of our exceptions (mid-level, bi-annual, and the trade player exception).
- Trade 1: (after July 1st) Steve Blake for Kirk Hinrich. We absorb the salary with all our cap space. Bye-bye cap space.
- Trade 2: (after July 1st) Go after Tayshaun Prince. Dave lists a lot of ideas for ways to make salaries match up. The idea I like the best is sending Rudy Fernandez (yes IMO he must be included to get back Prince), Travis Outlaw, and Martell Webster. Because at this point we're giving up more than fair value, and because we've just depleted our bench of high-quality reserves, I would expect Detroit to include their first round draft pick (#15) to help us replenish our lost talent.
Our core of Hinrich, Roy, Prince, Aldridge, and Oden would be substantially better defensively and offensively. Championship window now open!
We would still have Bayless, Batum and Przybilla off the bench, which is better at those respective positions than we had last year.
What we have to then figure out is equalling or increasing our positional production at reserve shooting guard and reserve power forward. Keep in mind we still have the following assets: #15, #24, 4 second rounders, and Sergio's trade value. What's uncertain is how much over the salary cap Paul Allen wants to go. By adding that second 1st round draft pick, we would already be headed over the assumed salary cap (around $57M for next year). If both first rounders are stored away overseas, then we'd gain some marginal salary cap space back. I would assume that since the "championship window" is now clearly opened, Allen would at least be willing to go up to the luxury tax threshhold, which I've heard could be in the mid-$60Ms (much lower than last year). Considering we likely would add at least one first rounder's guaranteed rookie salary to the books taking us over the salary cap, and that we really only have Sergio's salary to offer in trade, we're very limited in who we can bring back, considering at this point we have to virtually match dollar for dollar what salary goes out with what comes in.
- IMO, the most critical position to focus on would be at shooting guard. Rudy did much more for this team in those 54 wins then maybe we realize. We could draft a polished player such as Wayne Ellington. We could trade for one using any of our existing assets; however, I don't see any guards worth moving for that would be less than the $2.25M maximum we could take back in salary if including Sergio in a deal. Wayne Ellington at #24 would be ideal IMO.
- That would leave our spot behind Lamarcus to tend to. We could deal with that using Detroit's #15. Gulp. Hansbrough. We could package Sergio before the the 1st of July to New York for their traded-player exception and then move our #15 for their #8 for Blair (assuming that NY likes Sergio more than whatever point guard is left at #8). We could also convince Joel Freeland that he could get big minutes if he came over now.
Adding Ellington and Freeland (or Hansbrough or Blair) seem like realistic options that are both attainable and would fit our culture.
With our second rounders, we could beef our depth back up with possibly Danny Green and a point guard. I'm not sure of this, but we could also then re-sign Frye.
All this and we'd be likely just under the luxury tax for this season.
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