I believe we can still win the tiebreaker if we win the rest of our division games and Utah loses the rest of theirs. We can catch Denver as well.
I'm not woried about Utah. They are currently a game behind the Blazers and have five road games left against Western Conference play-off teams. They haven't won a single road game against a Western Conference team with an >0.500 record all season. In fact, they have exactly ONE road win all season against a team (76ers) that's currently above 0.500 - and that was back before Thanksgiving. They also have three back-to-backs in their last eight games - and they are all home/away or away/home back-to-backs. So, not only do they play two nights in a row, but have to travel in between. They will be lucky to hold off Dallas for the 7th seed.
So, I'm definitely pulling for them to beat Denver tonight - although given their inedptitude on the road, it's a long shot. A win by Utah over Denver also helps Portland in the 2nd tie breaker (Division Record). Right now, Denver has a better division record (9-3) than the Blazers (8-5). So, we need Denver to lose as many in-division games as possible.
The Blazers have 3 in-division games left - 2 against OKC and the season finale agsinst Denver. If the Blazers win all three, they finish with an 11-5 division record. Denver has four in-division games left - tonight against Utah, and Minnesota, home against OKC and then the finale in Portland. We need them to loose at least 2 of the 4 for the Blazers to have a chance at equalling Denver's in-division record. Since I can't see Denver losing to Minnesota or OKC, we need the Jazz to beat them tonight.
Since the 3rd tie breaker is Conference Record, and Denver has a 4.5 game lead there, to win the division, we really need to either finish ahead of the Nuggets in the standings outright, or hope they lose 3 of their 4 remaining in-conference games. In either case, I never thought I'd say it, but "GO JAZZ!".
BNM
