Detailed Blazer's Edge article on Cap and Blazer Options

[Bwatcher]

Dave at Blazer's Edge has written a very thorough article on the Blazer's cap, and the implications on it, of various options. It concludes with Dave's best guesses about what the Blazer's will do. It is long, but clearly written.

http://www.blazersedge.com/

Travis Outlaw doesn't leave the same sized roster hole as Blake does but he's younger, has more potential, and is worth more in trade. The question here is, "In a worst-case scenario (i.e. you don't care about his talent and are just extending him to trade him) do you think Travis is worth more than $3.6 million in trade value?" In almost every conceivable case the answer is going to be yes. Therefore there's virtually no chance you'll see the Blazers release Travis outright to save $3.6 million in flexibility. Because of this for all intents and purposes you can consider Portland's open cap space no greater than $9.8 million.

As long as Channing is not signed he counts against the cap for $9.5 million, either substantially reducing or completely eliminating Portland's cap space for the summer, depending on who else they retain. One solution is for the Blazers to release him outright, not issuing any qualifying offer and not retaining any rights to him. In that case he has no hold on Portland's cap anymore. Another solution is for Portland to extend the qualifying offer to hedge bets (they could retain him later on if there were no better options) knowing they could rescind the offer at any time before late-July without prejudice and at any time after that with Channing's agreement. Either one of these seems a likely solution. We may hear before the end of the month that the Blazers and Channing are parting ways. We may hear that Portland has extended an offer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to keep him.

What Do You Do About the Draft?

This depends on what kind of deals you think you can make and how valuable cap space/flexibility is to you when making those deals. If the Blazers are in a position where they need every million they can get in cap room then they need to trade out of this draft or at least avoid moving higher. You'd get about a million by getting out of the draft. You'd get up to $1.6 million more by renouncing your rights to your overseas prospects (Koponen and Freeland). You only do these things if you know that last $2.5 million in space is critical, but they can be done.

 

[Sinobas]

I don't agree on the Travis Outlaw point. If his 3.6 mil salary is the difference between not getting anyone, or getting Hedo, Artest, or Andre Miller...etc....then yes, we DO get more by dumping him than keeping him.

KP is going to bring Joel Freeland in to be the backup PF, making Outlaw expendable.

Also, if we couldn't pull off a "lop sided trade" in Februrary, with Raef LaFrentz 14 million dollar contract, why should we expect to get anything better now?

 

[LittleAlex]

After Travis's pathetic performance in the playoffs this year, I think it is hard to say teams believe he is worth even 3.6 million.

Between that and the fact he has proven over and over again he can't start I have a hard time believing teams would even want to trade for him at all.

 

[RickyRubio]

I will be so pissed if we do not get rid of Outlaw.

 

[Wheels]

I don't agree on the Travis Outlaw point. If his 3.6 mil salary is the difference between not getting anyone, or getting Hedo, Artest, or Andre Miller...etc....then yes, we DO get more by dumping him than keeping him.

KP is going to bring Joel Freeland in to be the backup PF, making Outlaw expendable.

Also, if we couldn't pull off a "lop sided trade" in Februrary, with Raef LaFrentz 14 million dollar contract, why should we expect to get anything better now?

when is the deadline to extend though? wouldnt the free Agency period be after the deadline to extend Outlaw? Cutting him without knowing if we'll get Hedo or Miller seems like a big gamble.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Maybe I'm waaaaaaay off here, but I think that the big deals (if they happen) are happening draft day. Why? B/c Blake and Outlaw represent (basically) 7.6M in trade exceptions. THERE's our "lopsided trade" money right there. Another team can send us 9M worth of player (or, actually, a 9M worth of player and a <2.913M player, for a total of almost 12M) and just cut Blake and Outlaw, giving them a FREE 12M off their payroll. We can use that to take a bad contract or two and a high draft pick (for instance, #5, Jamison and Blatche from WAS for just Blake, Outlaw and the exception). Or something like #2, Conley, Darko and Marko for Blake (waived), Outlaw (kept), Przy, cash and 24. At that point, you can either draft BPA or work your magic to get your real target.

Once we hit the FA period, we don't have a whole lot of contracts to trade away for big money players or in big money deals. We aren't as flexible in 3-way trades. As Dave pointed out, we have to make a lot of risky decisions. But none of that is a problem if we make our big move on draft day--before Outlaw and Blake become guaranteed.

 

[Minstrel]

I think the writer is way overrating the value of Frye. He talks about how many teams will be interested in him and how Portland might throw him into a deal "to sweeten it."

I'd be rather surprised if Portland extended a qualifying offer. There's a real risk of Frye immediately accepting it, because there's a solid chance he's not going to get the ~$4.5 million deal anywhere else.

 

[Masbee]

Maybe I'm waaaaaaay off here, but I think that the big deals (if they happen) are happening draft day. Why? B/c Blake and Outlaw represent (basically) 7.6M in trade exceptions. THERE's our "lopsided trade" money right there. Another team can send us 9M worth of player (or, actually, a 9M worth of player and a <2.913M player, for a total of almost 12M) and just cut Blake and Outlaw, giving them a FREE 12M off their payroll. We can use that to take a bad contract or two and a high draft pick (for instance, #5, Jamison and Blatche from WAS for just Blake, Outlaw and the exception). Or something like #2, Conley, Darko and Marko for Blake (waived), Outlaw (kept), Przy, cash and 24. At that point, you can either draft BPA or work your magic to get your real target.

Once we hit the FA period, we don't have a whole lot of contracts to trade away for big money players or in big money deals. We aren't as flexible in 3-way trades. As Dave pointed out, we have to make a lot of risky decisions. But none of that is a problem if we make our big move on draft day--before Outlaw and Blake become guaranteed.

I am not so sure that will work. In the past, many players who have Team options for the final year of their contract, have a counterveiling provisions that causes the final option year to be guaranteed upon being traded or switching from Team option to Player option. Don't know if that clause is in Blake and Outlaw's contracts, but wouldn't be surprised if it is.

 

[Wheels]

I think the writer is way overrating the value of Frye. He talks about how many teams will be interested in him and how Portland might throw him into a deal "to sweeten it."

I'd be rather surprised if Portland extended a qualifying offer. There's a real risk of Frye immediately accepting it, because there's a solid chance he's not going to get the ~$4.5 million deal anywhere else.

heck yeah he will take it.. the only thing that is more sure is Zydrunas Illguaskus excercizing his player option for 11 mill or whatever it is

 

[Minstrel]

I am not so sure that will work. In the past, many players who have Team options for the final year of their contract, have a counterveiling provisions that causes the final option year to be guaranteed upon being traded or switching from Team option to Player option. Don't know if that clause is in Blake and Outlaw's contracts, but wouldn't be surprised if it is.

And, anyway, isn't it irrelevant? Portland can just decline the options and trade that resulting cap space in a salary-mismatched deal, accomplishing exactly the same thing for the other team.

 

[LittleAlex]

I think the writer is way overrating the value of Frye. He talks about how many teams will be interested in him and how Portland might throw him into a deal "to sweeten it."

I'd be rather surprised if Portland extended a qualifying offer. There's a real risk of Frye immediately accepting it, because there's a solid chance he's not going to get the ~$4.5 million deal anywhere else.

I think the writer overvalued all three players mentioned.

The only way Frye doesn't take the qualifying offer is if he wants big minutes somewhere else. He can accept less money to play somewhere else, after all.


Like say, Turkey.

 

[Sinobas]

when is the deadline to extend though? wouldnt the free Agency period be after the deadline to extend Outlaw? Cutting him without knowing if we'll get Hedo or Miller seems like a big gamble.

I don't know what the dates are, but 9 million dollars, in this economy, and we being an attractive destination due to being a good team on the rise. We have a good chance of getting someone...and if not...no big loss. We're getting Joel Freeland.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

IMHO there's no doubt KP wants to move up in the draft to the 12-14 spot to nab a PG. While there would be a few good ones available, I think he's targeting Lawson (hey, at least I guessed it right last year when I said he was targeting Augustine, but he was snagged before we could have him picked and we ended up with Bayless). The trade to get that pick would involve our 1st round pick, Bayless or Sergio, and maybe Travis or Channing. If so, we'd get some other sort of nominal compensation (more second round picks down the road...).

While Channing had a disappointing year, he's a better rebounder and defender than Travis so it makes sense Travis would be first in the line to be traded rather than Fry. Unless Fry gets a good offer somewhere, he'll probably still be here. That said, I have to admit it's hard to think of Channing still being here next season.

Lastly, I think we're desperate for a veteran back up PF and who ever we don;t trade to move up for a PG in the draft might be moved for a verteran PF unless we pick one up via free agency.

Were I a betting man, I'd say the chances of starting next season wirth both Bayless & Sergio is less than 10%. Same for starting the season with both Travis & Channing. At least two of those, and probably three will be gone next year.

 

[BalancedMan]

IMHO there's no doubt KP wants to move up in the draft to the 12-14 spot to nab a PG. While there would be a few good ones available, I think he's targeting Lawson (hey, at least I guessed it right last year when I said he was targeting Augustine, but he was snagged before we could have him picked and we ended up with Bayless). The trade to get that pick would involve our 1st round pick, Bayless or Sergio, and maybe Travis or Channing. If so, we'd get some other sort of nominal compensation (more second round picks down the road...).

While Channing had a disappointing year, he's a better rebounder and defender than Travis so it makes sense Travis would be first in the line to be traded rather than Fry. Unless Fry gets a good offer somewhere, he'll probably still be here. That said, I have to admit it's hard to think of Channing still being here next season.

Lastly, I think we're desperate for a veteran back up PF and who ever we don;t trade to move up for a PG in the draft might be moved for a verteran PF unless we pick one up via free agency.

Were I a betting man, I'd say the chances of starting next season wirth both Bayless & Sergio is less than 10%. Same for starting the season with both Travis & Channing. At least two of those, and probably three will be gone next year.

Where was that ever shown? I thought he liked Bayless all along, probably surprised that he slid so much to us. I loved that trade, the Diogu part too (I saw the thread about him the other day). I can say that I was right about Rudy and Batum at the very least (players we actually drafted). I think that we could be interested in Lawson or another PG, but I don't know about trading up that high to get him. Johnny Flynn, on the other hand...he was very impressive in Syracuse's run in the Big East and NCAA tournament.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

I don't know what the dates are, but 9 million dollars, in this economy, and we being an attractive destination due to being a good team on the rise. We have a good chance of getting someone...and if not...no big loss. We're getting Joel Freeland.

I'm not a Travis fan but no way can you assume that Joel Freeland is going to sweep in and take his spot. Travis has many faults but the kid is still a fine NBA player and Freeland is borderline NBA player. Travis slumped in the playoffs but I would say he proved himself enough over the last 2 seasons that he belongs in the NBA.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Where was that ever shown? I thought he liked Bayless all along, probably surprised that he slid so much to us. I loved that trade, the Diogu part too (I saw the thread about him the other day). I can say that I was right about Rudy and Batum at the very least (players we actually drafted). I think that we could be interested in Lawson or another PG, but I don't know about trading up that high to get him. Johnny Flynn, on the other hand...he was very impressive in Syracuse's run in the Big East and NCAA tournament.

He did like Bayless. In fact, when he heard Augustine was going to be drafted ahead of us, he had Indy take Bayless.

 

[Pinwheel1]

After Travis's pathetic performance in the playoffs this year, I think it is hard to say teams believe he is worth even 3.6 million.

Between that and the fact he has proven over and over again he can't start I have a hard time believing teams would even want to trade for him at all.

You are right. The GM's of all 29 teams are so fucking stupid that they would base their evaluation of a player on one playoff series. And obviously if you can't start in this league you are not worth 3.6 million. Dump his ass.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

After Travis's pathetic performance in the playoffs this year, I think it is hard to say teams believe he is worth even 3.6 million.

Between that and the fact he has proven over and over again he can't start I have a hard time believing teams would even want to trade for him at all.

One playoff series (his first ever) will make all teams forget that he has been tops in the league in scoring off the bench the last two years? Fact is, for a guy that comes in and shoots what seem to be contested shots all the time, he has a very good field goal percentage and his PER is 15.1, which is average for a SF or a SF starter I can't remember. Either way he is worth at least 3.6 million easily because of the scoring spark he brings off the bench.