Develop Bayless and Batum

[Sheldon Shape]

for his career Webster is a 37% 3 point shooter
for his career Batum is a 37% 3 point shooter

STOMP

The years that Webster has on Batum, makes him a much more credible shooter than Batum. Without a doubt.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The years that Webster has on Batum, makes him a much more credible shooter than Batum. Without a doubt.

What does credibility have to do with anything. The ball don't care about cred. Either it goes in, or it doesn't. 37% is 37% no matter who the shooter is.

BNM

 

[Da_O]

When you take into the volume of shots each take then Webster is the better shooter, but not by much.

Webster career 3.4 3-pt attempts a game
Batum career 2.1 3-pt attempts a game.

I'd rather have Batum, he's more efficient and has more upside.

I do want someone that can penetrate the defense off the dribble though. Roy can't do it alone.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I suggested after we failed to make a trade at the deadline that we might as well give Batum and Bayless a lot more time on the court, since we probably wouldn't get past the first round in the playoffs. Since we didn't do that, we have slowed their development and also we slowed the process of finding out how good they are. So, I'm not really sure what is best now, my inclination is that Bayless is not the answer so we try very hard to find a better PG this summer.

 

[Draco]

I agree to letting Bayless and Batum develop.

In practice.

If they are ready to play they can earn minutes by outplaying teammates. This isn't "everyone gets a trophy for effort" little league its the highest level of competitive basketball on the planet. Players need to demonstrate they deserve playing time because they give the team a better chance of winning basketball games.

 

[Draco]

Oden is not a good offensive player. He has hands of stone and feet of concrete. The sooner you realize that Oden is going to be a role player for us the better off you'll be.

have a nice afternoon.

Why thanks, we are all very grateful for your amazing insights.

I'm curious if you've reached any other conclusions. I've noticed Travis has arms of celery and Blake occasionally has legs of spaghetti. But hope is not lost as our great Roy has the amazing palms of molasses.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

What does credibility have to do with anything. The ball don't care about cred. Either it goes in, or it doesn't. 37% is 37% no matter who the shooter is.

BNM

Is that a serious question? Credibility has everything to do with it. A guy who has shot 37% for a few years and has the reputation as a shooter versus a guy who has no years in the league and barely made the team who is known as a complete project and often goes games without taking a single shot are on the same level? I know who I would rather guard as a defender. Not that hard of a decision.

 

[STOMP]

Is that a serious question? Credibility has everything to do with it. A guy who has shot 37% for a few years and has the reputation as a shooter versus a guy who has no years in the league and barely made the team who is known as a complete project and often goes games without taking a single shot are on the same level? I know who I would rather guard as a defender.

ahhh hyperbole... other then when he was out with an injury, Nic didn't have a single game this season where he didn't take a shot let alone string several shotless games together.

...and 37% isn't some mythical level of outside shooting that will earn one guy a big reputation over another guy shooting the same percentage. The D absolutely will collapse off of those types of shooters to defend the paint and the data suggests that they will take advantage at a very similar rate.

I really think your argument here is silly

STOMP

 

[Sheldon Shape]

ahhh hyperbole... other then when he was out with an injury, Nic didn't have a single game this season where he didn't take a shot let alone string several shotless games together.

Houston, game 5. But you're missing the point and want to argue for the sake of arguing. There are plenty of games where Nic takes just 1 shot, or 2. Defenders know he's extremely passive on the offensive end, so how does he have the same respect that Webster has? The answer is he doesn't. It's just foolish to suggest otherwise.

...and 37% isn't some mythical level of outside shooting that will earn one guy a big reputation over another guy shooting the same percentage. The D absolutely will collapse off of those types of shooters to defend the paint and the data suggests that they will take advantage at a very similar rate.

I really think your argument here is silly

STOMP

I really think you don't understand the nuances of the NBA game. A coach is going to tell his guys to sag off Batum far more than Webster. It's a funny thing to say. So if Ray Allen and Jason Kopono are shooting the same 3 point percentage, and Ray has been in the league for 4 years versus a rookie in Kopono, they have the same respect from the defender? That's absolutely absurd, as is your statement that Batum has the same respect from defenders that Webster has at the three point stripe. You are absolutely wrong. Teams make an effort to have a guy like Batum try to beat them, not the others.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Is that a serious question? Credibility has everything to do with it. A guy who has shot 37% for a few years and has the reputation as a shooter

Yes, a reputation as an average shooter. The league average 3FG% this year was 0.367 - and that includes all those half and 3/4 court heaves at the end of every quarter. Webster has great form, but the results are only average. He also has the reputation as the guy the Blazers took instead of Chris Paul or Deron Williams, and quite frankly, after showing very little improvement over his first 3 (now 4) years in the league he's starting to get labeled as a bust

versus a guy who has no years in the league and barely made the team who is known as a complete project and often goes games without taking a single shot are on the same level?

This is a ridiculous (and inaccurate) argument. How did a guy who barely made the team end up starting 76 games? Batum as a rookie had a PER of 12.9, TS% of 0.555 and an eFG% of 0.532. Webster, as a 3rd year player the previous season had a PER of 12.0 a TS% of 0.548 and an eFG% of 0.516.

I know who I would rather guard as a defender. Not that hard of a decision.

NBA teams have scouts and film. They know that Webster is an average (to slightly above average) 3-point shooter. They also know that Batum, if left open, can hit the corner 3. Neither player is an offensive juggernaut. Allow either one to get their feet set and get off a shot without a hand in their face and they will knock it down. If Batum's lack of "cred" means teams are more likely to leave him open all the better, because that's when he's at his best.

Of course, on the other end of the court, the younger, less experienced Batum does pretty much everything better than Webster.

BNM

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Yes, a reputation as an average shooter. The league average 3FG% this year was 0.367 - and that includes all those half and 3/4 court heaves at the end of every quarter. Webster has great form, but the results are only average. He also has the reputation as the guy the Blazers took instead of Chris Paul or Deron Williams, and quite frankly, after showing very little improvement over his first 3 (now 4) years in the league he's starting to get labeled as a bust



This is a ridiculous (and inaccurate) argument. How did a guy who barely made the team end up starting 76 games? Batum as a rookie had a PER of 12.9, TS% of 0.555 and an eFG% of 0.532. Webster, as a 3rd year player the previous season had a PER of 12.0 a TS% of 0.548 and an eFG% of 0.516.



NBA teams have scouts and film. They know that Webster is an average (to slightly above average) 3-point shooter. They also know that Batum, if left open, can hit the corner 3. Neither player is an offensive juggernaut. Allow either one to get their feet set and get off a shot without a hand in their face and they will knock it down. If Batum's lack of "cred" means teams are more likely to leave him open all the better, because that's when he's at his best.

Of course, on the other end of the court, the younger, less experienced Batum does pretty much everything better than Webster.

BNM

You typed this all out to prove Batum is equal or better than Webster? You're not going to get an argument from me. I'm not here to argue about who's better, all I'm saying is that one gets more respect from defenders than the other one. This is true, whether it is merited or not is another question. I'd really like to see Batum start being more aggressive on offense more, he has the ability to be a good scorer imo. Although, I do think that many have written Martell off far too early. The kid is only 22 or so. This upcoming season will tell a lot about his future with the Blazers.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Teams make an effort to have a guy like Batum try to beat them, not the others.

You could say the exact same thing about Webster. Teams will not hesitate to leave Webster to double team Roy, Aldridge (or now, Oden). They would much rather take their chances on Webster beating them than any of the Big 3.

Martell has been in the league for 4 seasons now. Over the first 3, he showed very little improvement in his game. He gets an incomplete for his 4th year because of the injury. Will he comeback and show improvement in his 5th season? I hope so. It took Outlaw 5 years to finally become a decent NBA player. So, maybe there is hope for Webster yet.

Batum, however, has shown a lot more promise at a earlier age. Yes, he is passive on offense, but he does everything else so much better than Webster. Long term he is a much better NBA prospect than Webster. At this point, I wouldn't hesitate to trade both Outlaw and Webster for a veteran, because Batum is clearly our SF of the future.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

Maybe Martell should sit out another season. His reputation is growing everyday by leaps and bounds, by this time next year he could be a borderline all-star champing at the bit to breakout and take the league by storm.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Although, I do think that many have written Martell off far too early. The kid is only 22 or so. This upcoming season will tell a lot about his future with the Blazers.

I thought this past season was going to be the make or break year for Martell. I really hoped he'd have a breakout year. The injury derailed that. It could still happen this year, but now that I've seen Batum play, I'm less anxious to spend yet another year trying to develop Martell Webster into an average NBA player. Yeah, he's still young, but he showed so little improvement in his 1st three seasons, I'm not convinced he'll ever be anything special. This isn't a Jermaine O'Neal situation. Webster has been given plenty of opportunities (he started 115 games in his first three seasons and played almost 5000 minutes), and so far hasn't shown me he'll ever be anything better than an average, at best, NBA player.

BNM

 

[Sheldon Shape]

I thought this past season was going to be the make or break year for Martell. I really hoped he'd have a breakout year. The injury derailed that. It could still happen this year, but now that I've seen Batum play, I'm less anxious to spend yet another year trying to develop Martell Webster into an average NBA player. Yeah, he's still young, but he showed so little improvement in his 1st three seasons, I'm not convinced he'll ever be anything special. This isn't a Jermaine O'Neal situation. Webster has been given plenty of opportunities (he started 115 games in his first three seasons and played almost 5000 minutes), and so far hasn't shown me he'll ever be anything better than an average, at best, NBA player.

BNM

I think the "opportunity" you speak of has been overstated. Martell got minutes sure, but what was his duty on offense? Sit in the corner and wait for the ball and shoot a 3, the same exact thing is happening to Batum right now. I think both are so much more than that. I hope some day, one day Nate McMillan can get creative with his offense rather than letting Roy or Outlaw go on iso plays I would much rather see the ball being given to Oden and some cuts happening for the small forwards on our team.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Do you guys realize that Webster rising to the level of an average NBA starting SF would be a "breakout" for him relative to his past production? if his PER shot up 3 pts, he'd be an average SF. Nothing special. Just an average jump shooting SF with weak handles and decent athleticism. Batum has already surpassed Webster in every was but PPG and Batum is a more efficient scorer.
I say trade outlaw and webster and get Earl Clark or Johnson, or any other big 3/4 with decent skills. Let Rudy be the sparkplug 6th man and take Travis's shots.

Meh. Claiming Webster is going to be a star is the way some people cope with the pain of knowing just how badly the Blazers screwed up that draft.

 

[Blaze01]

I'd love to see the Blazers get someone like Gerald Wallace as a starting SF. I'd give up both Webster and Outlaw (and Blake, Sergio and our pick and our trade exception) to get him. Again, he'd help the team get deeper in the play-offs instantly, and would be a good role player/tutor for Batum.

Nice posts BNB...

I agree on Miller, penetration was one of THE biggest problems this team had last year...Who outside of Roy was able to draw the defenses to them? This team relies on jump shots too much, announcers (even POR own) and analysts repeatedly stated as such during the year....and they were correct.....and POR still has plenty of jump shooters available to offset any loss of Blake, Outlaw or Webster....and more shots for Rudy wouldn't be a bad thing either....

Great analysis on Oden as well...the pick and roll with Oden was non existent, which lies on both the coaching staff and the PG (Blake & Sergio) moreso bLake IMO, as Sergio did hit Oden and some pick and rolls (Blake did too, but less frequently)...adding Miller would greatly improve this...and Miller gets to the line...people...in the playoffs this crucial...Who else outside of Roy could get to the line?

The only way Oden is going to improve as an offensive player is to get his touches, be it the pick and roll or isolations...he NEEDS to be more involved in the offense...and our guards and coaches did not do that well enough IMO....I don't think the book is written yet on Oden as an NBA player...I think he will be better offensively than some people here and elseewhere think, but it won't come overnight and he needs to get more than 3-5 attempts per night to make it happen....

I don't see Gerald Wallace coming here (nor am I huge fan of his)....If I recall, CHA insisted on Batum? (or Rudy?) as part of any deal for Wallace, and POR wisely passed....I don't see a deal emerging anytime soon either...they are going to have to address a SF elsewhere....

Good analysis on Webster...although I am not ready to write him off yet, but he has one year to show marked improvement IMO....I call out Outlaw for his "six-year developmental plan" and it is only fair to hold Webster to the same criticism....The injury this year was too bad, but that is life....being that he is signed for the next 4 years for pretty cheap and that his trade value is low (in part b\c he was out all year)...I think POR best bet is to hold onto him and see how he does this next year...that being said, if POR can use him in a deal to get a player they really like (via trade or through the draft), I don't think he should be off limits....

This next year is an important year for Bayless....I was surprised how bad his outside shooting was (non existant)...and his trade mark drives into the paint were not as succesful as they were in college or in summer league....better players closed out those lanes and stuffed him on way too many occassions for my liking....It is nice that he can draw fouls, but if he is going to be a successful NBA PG, he is going to have to be able to hit open jump shots and finish at the rim more effectively...passing wise, I thought he was ok...he needs to get better obviously, but I thought he did a decent job as a distributor in the limited times he was in...It will be interesting to see how a year of offseason development (and more in season opportunities) will effect this area of his game.

 

[Minstrel]

I think the "opportunity" you speak of has been overstated. Martell got minutes sure, but what was his duty on offense? Sit in the corner and wait for the ball and shoot a 3

That's because that's all Webster can do. I doubt the team was telling him to avoid using an ability to break the defense down and finish at the hoop or set up a teammate. Webster was a high draft pick...there's no question that the team would have piled as much offensive responsibility/duty on him as his game would support. No team purposely marginalizes a top-ten draft pick. McMillan uses him as a set shooter because, so far, that's the only ability Webster has shown.

 

[hasoos]

I'm talking team defense, not man defense. He is solid man to man. Go back and watch the games from this season. You will continually see teammates yelling at Bayless and point to where he is supposed to be. I like the kid, but seriously there were many times when guys had to tell him where to be.

Older team mates always yell at rookies. He was a roookie, not some vet. Maybe if you don't have unrealistic expectations, a player can actually meet them. Most players take 2 to 3 years to hit their defensive stride.

Secondly I would like you to point out one team that is successful that the players don't yell at each other and hold each other accountable. How about you go watch the conference finals and tell me that Denver, LA, Cleveland and Orlando don't yell at each other on every defensive posession. It is healthy. Not bad.

 

[hasoos]

Nate has stated Bayless "is lost in our defensive sets".

Really, I haven't heard it. And for some reason, I don't believe a person who regularly puts on knee pads for Sergio, who is one of the worst players I have seen since James Hollywood Robinson was here.

Secondly, like Blake and Sergio weren't lost? They fucking sucked and didn't even play good one on one defense, let alone team defense.

 

[Reep]

Older team mates always yell at rookies. He was a roookie, not some vet. Maybe if you don't have unrealistic expectations, a player can actually meet them. Most players take 2 to 3 years to hit their defensive stride.

Secondly I would like you to point out one team that is successful that the players don't yell at each other and hold each other accountable. How about you go watch the conference finals and tell me that Denver, LA, Cleveland and Orlando don't yell at each other on every defensive posession. It is healthy. Not bad.

My point is nobody needed to yell at Batum, but Bayless was often out of place. Bayless will probably develop, but it certainly hasn't come as quickly as with Batum.

 

[STOMP]

Houston, game 5. But you're missing the point and want to argue for the sake of arguing. There are plenty of games where Nic takes just 1 shot, or 2. Defenders know he's extremely passive on the offensive end, so how does he have the same respect that Webster has? The answer is he doesn't. It's just foolish to suggest otherwise.

and you're a source of misinformation/bullshit. You claimed he strung together multiple shotless games this season to slight him and build a case for Martell which was flat wrong. Then instead of admitting you were wrong to do so you sited a single playoff game where Nate played him just under 6 minutes. Weak sauce.

I'm sure Martell is largely an afterthought for any opposing team's gameplan and the same is true for Batum. It's laughable to suggest otherwise as neither has shown any special offensive skills other then being decent 3 point shooters.

I really think you don't understand the nuances of the NBA game.

coming from someone who lies to make their points, I couldn't care less

STOMP

 

[Sheldon Shape]

That's because that's all Webster can do.

I mostly agree with you but Martell has shown a pretty good ability to make cuts and run around ala Rip Hamilton or even Rudy Fernandez.

I doubt the team was telling him to avoid using an ability to break the defense down and finish at the hoop or set up a teammate. Webster was a high draft pick...there's no question that the team would have piled as much offensive responsibility/duty on him as his game would support. No team purposely marginalizes a top-ten draft pick. McMillan uses him as a set shooter because, so far, that's the only ability Webster has shown.

I think there have been a couple sources, one from one of Martell's friends that asked why Martell just sits in the corner and apparently Martell told the "friend" that McMillan instructs him to stick to that corner. Now don't ask for link because I don't have one lol. Martell supposedly worked on getting to the rim a lot more in the summer before the season and the 1 preseason game is supposed to be some indication that he was make a serious effort into getting at the rim much more. I hope that is true.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

and you're a source of misinformation/bullshit. You claimed he strung together multiple shotless games this season to slight him and build a case for Martell which was flat wrong. Then instead of admitting you were wrong to do so you sited a single playoff game where Nate played him just under 6 minutes. Weak sauce.

Obviously reading is not your strongest skill. Nobody is making for who is better, I'm only suggesting that Martell has more respect from defenders than Batum does. You're mad because you claimed Batum never had a game with zero field goals and I proved you wrong, or a liar like you would say. I don't think you know the difference, but deal with it. Six minutes or not, you're wrong.

I'm sure Martell is largely an afterthought for any opposing team's gameplan and the same is true for Batum. It's laughable to suggest otherwise as neither has shown any special offensive skills other then being decent 3 point shooters.

Nobody suggested Martell isn't an afterthought, just that he has more respect from defenders than Batum on the offensive end. You can't understand that from reading my post then I fear for your ability to remember to breathe.

coming from someone who lies to make their points, I couldn't care less

STOMP

You caring less would have more merit if you didn't take the time to respond. Perhaps a coloring book would better suit you than any literary work.

 

[Drttimmy]

Frankly I think we got as many "lucky bounces" as a team can get last year. We came back from double digits deficits in 18 games, that's not exactly a bankable, repeatable feat. If anything I think the team vastly overachieved, and unless some moves are made I'm not sure you can even count on getting back to that 54 win level -- even with organic growth of certain players like Batum, Bayless, Oden, et al.

I shared a similar sentiment for most the year. Although, I never really equated it to luck, but more we out-worked teams. My worrying thought was if the other team exerted themselves as hard(or took the game as seriously) we'd probably have lost a few more.

But what I find encouraging is the way we ended the season. We were getting team's best efforts, and those squeakers that were near and dear Nov-Feb, became fewer and far between. I tend to think our later season progress will spill into the new season, rather then reverting to our earlier play.

 

[bigbailes]

develop batum, yes please.

as for bayless, i guess i don't see what alot of the rest of you see. he could be a decent player some day but his biggest asset is man-man d, he was not good in team defense last year, he couldn't hit an outside shot and teams began taking away his jj like drives when they had a little tape on him. i'm not saying ship him out this offseason but the revolving door at our PG position is getting tiresome. JJ last year, seems like serg this year, we can mostly agree blake isn't the answer, bayless hasn't shown that potential yet, and andre miller (whom everyone seems to be in love with) seems to have his best days behind him.

 

[Ed O]

as for bayless, i guess i don't see what alot of the rest of you see. he could be a decent player some day but his biggest asset is man-man d, he was not good in team defense last year, he couldn't hit an outside shot and teams began taking away his jj like drives when they had a little tape on him. i'm not saying ship him out this offseason but the revolving door at our PG position is getting tiresome. JJ last year, seems like serg this year, we can mostly agree blake isn't the answer, bayless hasn't shown that potential yet, and andre miller (whom everyone seems to be in love with) seems to have his best days behind him.

If Bayless had made shots that he SHOULD make (wide open three pointers) he would have been a markedly better player than he was. He does a good job of beating his man off the dribble and of getting to the line... both critical components of a dominant offensive player.

I don't feel like I've seen enough to comment on his team defense, but he appears to be reasonably good on the ball, and presumably he can learn team defense as he gets older.

Factor in his age (he turns 21 in August) and his nearly universally hailed work ethic and I am surprised that any Blazers fans question that he's still a pretty high-level prospect. I guess it might just be a case of "what have you done for me lately".

Ed O.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

If Bayless had made shots that he SHOULD make (wide open three pointers) he would have been a markedly better player than he was. He does a good job of beating his man off the dribble and of getting to the line... both critical components of a dominant offensive player.

I don't feel like I've seen enough to comment on his team defense, but he appears to be reasonably good on the ball, and presumably he can learn team defense as he gets older.

Factor in his age (he turns 21 in August) and his nearly universally hailed work ethic and I am surprised that any Blazers fans question that he's still a pretty high-level prospect. I guess it might just be a case of "what have you done for me lately".

Ed O.

Bayless is a very good prospect. I just don't know if the team is willing to put the resources into another project, especially after a winning season. We can win now, with that in mind, is Pritchard going to want to keep around a project? I think it works to have Bayless as a backup to say a Andre Miller type of vet, but if the Blazers go for a sure thing with a youth, ala Mike Conley I see Bayless being traded.

 

[STOMP]

Obviously reading is not your strongest skill. Nobody is making for who is better, I'm only suggesting that Martell has more respect from defenders than Batum does. You're mad because you claimed Batum never had a game with zero field goals and I proved you wrong, or a liar like you would say. I don't think you know the difference, but deal with it. Six minutes or not, you're wrong.

dude... you can't dig your way out of a hole. Admitting you were wrong is the way out not lashing out at someone who pointed out your BS. Again, you claimed he "often goes games without taking a single shot" A single game is not games and it certainly isn't often.

Nobody suggested Martell isn't an afterthought, just that he has more respect from defenders than Batum on the offensive end. You can't understand that from reading my post then I fear for your ability to remember to breathe.

I fully understand that your opinion is that Martell gets more respect, but my own eyes observed him left wide open time and again throughout his 3 years so I disagree. No defensive game plan I observed gives either guy much respect... both are on par as after thoughts.

You caring less would have more merit if you didn't take the time to respond. Perhaps a coloring book would better suit you than any literary work.

good grief. Make up shit, get called on it, make up more shit and lash out with childish insults. Pathetic job AmirIcon

STOMP

 

[Reep]

Factor in his age (he turns 21 in August) and his nearly universally hailed work ethic and I am surprised that any Blazers fans question that he's still a pretty high-level prospect. I guess it might just be a case of "what have you done for me lately".

Ed O.

I want to give him more time because I think he will find a way to contribute. Some guys will only grow by what you give them. Bayless seems to have that internal drive to do whatever he needs to do to find a way to grow. I think he will work his butt off this offseason. It's hard to imagine someone with his internal motivation, intelligence, and physical attributes not making it down the road.

With Sergio likely gone, Bayless will get more time next year. If he doesn't take advantage of that, then I think we have either overestimated his intelligence, or his high-strung nature is preventing him from playing relaxed confident basketball.