Did Stotts make a crucial miscalculation?

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Shooter

Shooter

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We're fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, with every game crucial, and yet Stotts chose to rest some key players for the NJ game, which we ended up losing.

Will this decision come back to haunt us?
 
I think this decision was much bigger than Stotts. Of course he had a say in the matter.
 
No. There are 82 games in a season. During a game you don't play the scoreboard. During the season you don't play the standings. There were plenty of games that were both won and lost this season.
Even more so. During the Playoffs you play a series but you play one game at a time. Never worry about the series standings.
 
KeepOnRollin said:
I think this decision was much bigger than Stotts. Of course he had a say in the matter.
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Interesting perspective. And I think it has some validity.

Look at how energized LA/Nic/Kaman looked last night. They looked completely different and it was exactly what they needed. Now Dame needs to get that similar rest someway somehow.
 
Home court advantage has never meant less than it has in the last three seasons. I'd rather have less mileage on Kaman and LA and Batum.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Interesting perspective. And I think it has some validity.

Look at how energized LA/Nic/Kaman looked last night. They looked completely different and it was exactly what they needed. Now Dame needs to get that similar rest someway somehow.
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If we win 4 games by 20 and he rests the fourth every time, he'll have rested a full game without missing one.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Interesting perspective. And I think it has some validity.

Look at how energized LA/Nic/Kaman looked last night. They looked completely different and it was exactly what they needed. Now Dame needs to get that similar rest someway somehow.
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A real big way to get some rest for Lillard is to have those three playing well.
 
kjironman1 said:
No. There are 82 games in a season. During a game you don't play the scoreboard. During the season you don't play the standings. There were plenty of games that were both won and lost this season.
Even more so. During the Playoffs you play a series but you play one game at a time. Never worry about the series standings.
Click to expand...
Care to translate that into English?
 
Shooter said:
We're fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, with every game crucial, and yet Stotts chose to rest some key players for the NJ game, which we ended up losing.

Will this decision come back to haunt us?
Click to expand...

I think the game tonight figured heavily in the decision to rest Aldridge, Batum and Kaman against BRK. Yep, we gave away that game in BRK, but I think the staff probably figured we'd lose to GSW tonight anyway, especially if LA, Nic and Kaman had made the cross country trip and back for one game on Monday and then had to play a home and away back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday. So, I think the staff probably figured we wouldn't get HCA anyway so might as well rest some guys against BRK.

Of course, at the time, GSW looked invincible. Now that they've lost two in a row, it may be GSW that decides to start resting some of their guys. It would be cruelly ironic if the staff threw in the towel against BRK, assuming we'd lose to GSW, only to beat GSW and lose out on HCA due to the BRK loss.

BNM
 
Shooter said:
Care to translate that into English?
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If you have a lead you don't let up. If you are behind you don't give up.
If you players are not playing well because they are tired it might be worth it to rest a game and win the next 3.
In a playoff series the team with HCA only has to lose one home game for them to no longer have HCA. a team that is down 2-0 and going home for game 3 is not at any more of a disadvantage than when they were 0-1. You do not play the games differently. You still play the game to win and make adjustments accordingly.
 
Boob-No-More said:
I think the game tonight figured heavily in the decision to rest Aldridge, Batum and Kaman against BRK. Yep, we gave away that game in BRK, but I think the staff probably figured we'd lose to GSW tonight anyway, especially if LA, Nic and Kaman had made the cross country trip and back for one game on Monday and then had to play a home and away back-to-back on Wednesday and Thursday. So, I think the staff probably figured we wouldn't get HCA anyway so might as well rest some guys against BRK.

Of course, at the time, GSW looked invincible. Now that they've lost two in a row, it may be GSW that decides to start resting some of their guys. It would be cruelly ironic if the staff threw in the towel against BRK, assuming we'd lose to GSW, only to beat GSW and lose out on HCA due to the BRK loss.

BNM
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Not just that but running across the country to play a road game didn't guarantee victory anyway.
 
kjironman1 said:
Not just that but running across the country to play a road game didn't guarantee victory anyway.
Click to expand...

I think the staff figured we'd need to win out to get HCA and that the odds of that were very slim. Since we are locked into the 4 seed, and one loss would likely prevent us from getting HCA, they probably figured there isn't any difference between losing one (GSW) or losing two (BRK, GSW). That thinking could come back to bite us if we actually beat GSW tonight, win out and don't get HCA because of the game we gave away in BRK.

And yes, I think we win that game in BRK easily with Aldridge, Batum and Kaman. BRK couldn't stop Meyers Leonard on the low block. Aldridge and Kaman would have killed them.

BNM
 
kjironman1 said:
You still play the game to win and make adjustments accordingly.
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If I can be so bold as to interpret what you are trying to say, the above statement seems to suggest that you think it is important to win every game--which was sort of my original point.
 
kjironman1 said:
Not just that but running across the country to play a road game didn't guarantee victory anyway.
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. . . But sitting Aldridge, Batum and Kaman just about certainly guaranteed a loss.
 
If they had made the trip and not played, it would have been a HUGE mistake.

But the rest for those three will make much more of a difference in the playoffs than one extra home game in the first round.
 
The crucial misstep was the two minnesota losses.
 
Shooter said:
. . . But sitting Aldridge, Batum and Kaman just about certainly guaranteed a loss.
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And now are working on a second of a B2B with Utah back at home. They need these 3. Then they go on the road for 2 more OKC and Dallas.
Boob no More just made my point. What was the chance of winning out with that schedule?
 
Boob-No-More said:
I think the staff figured we'd need to win out to get HCA and that the odds of that were very slim. Since we are locked into the 4 seed, and one loss would likely prevent us from getting HCA, they probably figured there isn't any difference between losing one (GSW) or losing two (BRK, GSW). That thinking could come back to bite us if we actually beat GSW tonight, win out and don't get HCA because of the game we gave away in BRK.

And yes, I think we win that game in BRK easily with Aldridge, Batum and Kaman. BRK couldn't stop Meyers Leonard on the low block. Aldridge and Kaman would have killed them.

BNM
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While dont disagree with that the logical is a little off because then it wouldnt matter if we lost all of the rest of our games or 1 games (BKN) because we would still have the 4th seed w/o HCA. So why not just rest more players more often the rest of the year?
 
Portland has lost 27 games this year. They are about exactly where many figured they would be. 53-55 wins. They were going to lose just under 30 from the very beginning. Playing and second guessing the standing is crazy at this point.
This team needs to be healthy and playing well. From all evidence i see that is exactly what they are doing.
 
Boise Blazer said:
While dont disagree with that the logical is a little off because then it wouldnt matter if we lost all of the rest of our games or 1 games (BKN) because we would still have the 4th seed w/o HCA. So why not just rest more players more often the rest of the year?
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The same reason Golden State is not sitting their players. You want to play them around 30 mins a game and keep the units sharp. There is also the Lillard streak that comes into question.
 
Resting players “may” mean one more loss in the regular season. (Pure speculation, and so what)


HOWEVER, resting the players may also mean winning a playoff series.


I will take the players being rested and giving them a better chance to win a playoff series over one more regular season win, and so will Coach Pops.


Stotts did what he thought was the best way to prepare his players for the playoffs. Key rotation players got much needed rest. Younger bench players got meaningful game minutes and experience that may also play dividends in the playoffs.
 
That makes sense. I will be curious to see how they play the starter minutes tonight. Might be a good indicator of their thought process. As in if you are going to do it then do it right based on the minutes and not the outcome of the game.
 
Boise Blazer said:
While dont disagree with that the logical is a little off because then it wouldnt matter if we lost all of the rest of our games or 1 games (BKN) because we would still have the 4th seed w/o HCA. So why not just rest more players more often the rest of the year?
Click to expand...

By throwing in the towel against BRK, we guaranteed we wouldn't win out. My point is, what if we win tonight against GSW (who has lost two in a row and may decide it's time to start resting some of their guys) and win our remaining games. If so, the BRK loss would have cost us HCA.

Prior to the BRK game, we controlled our own fate - win them all and we get HCA. By losing to BRK, now we need help from other teams to get HCA. We still have a very slim chance for HCA, but now we MUST win out and hope somebody else falters (HOU and MEM, for example).

BNM
 
Shooter said:
We're fighting for home-court advantage in the first round, with every game crucial, and yet Stotts chose to rest some key players for the NJ game, which we ended up losing.

Will this decision come back to haunt us?
Click to expand...

It was a make up game from a cancellation earlier in the season. Flying to NY and back does not normally happen during a NBA season. That's spending 13 out of 20hrs cramped on a plane. If they were all three uninjured I'm sure they would have done it but I bet it was more the training staff recommending the players not make that trip.
 
oldfisherman said:
Resting players “may” mean one more loss in the regular season. (Pure speculation, and so what)


HOWEVER, resting the players may also mean winning a playoff series.


I will take the players being rested and giving them a better chance to win a playoff series over one more regular season win, and so will Coach Pops.


Stotts did what he thought was the best way to prepare his players for the playoffs. Key rotation players got much needed rest. Younger bench players got meaningful game minutes and experience that may also play dividends in the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Having HCA may also mean winning a playoff series. Most articles I've read on the subject claim HCA is worth about 4.5 points per game in the playoffs. As close as the games are, that could be a huge difference.

How much rest do they need before the playoffs? Last year, we played only one playoff game in the 6 days after our last regular season game. We had three days off, played one game, had two more days off and then played the second game a week after the regular season ended - with no travel in between. Did Aldridge not look well rested in Games 1 and 2 against HOU last year. Our regular season ends on a Wednesday again this year. So, look for a similar schedule for round 1 this year.

BNM
 
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