Did we overachieve last year?

[Stevenson]

Bleacher Report pegs us at 45 wins next year -

What did we win this past year, 54? Most of us will admit that we were surprised, as was the rest of the league, at that blistering start up into December. Then we fell back to Earth. And it took Damian's miracle 3 to get to the 2nd round (doubt we would have won in Houston).

So, did we overachieve, or were we really that good?

I think we were, and are, about a 50 win team.

Which ain't chopped liver, but we overachieved, yes.

 

[NewsSource]

45 wins?

Bleacher Report, ah I see.

 

[Natebishop3]

Why would anyone read bleacher report?

 

[THE HCP]

YES we did. Nobody expected that amount of wins. Great seasons, but I think we outdid what everybody thought we'd do. That said, 50-53 wins this season would be about right. West is tough again.

 

[maxiep]

Yes. /thread

 

[THE HCP]

^nice

 

[BlazerWookee]

"Bleacher Report," lol...

 

[Minstrel]

I think the Blazers overachieved...their early run of dominance wasn't sustainable but the wins they got during that run were banked. After that, they played more to their "true talent level" (in my opinion).

I think around 50 wins is realistic for the coming season and that's actually because I believe they improved in the off-season. Not a huge improvement, but I think Blake and Kaman will prevent things from falling apart when Lillard sits and especially on defense when Rolo hits the bench. I also think Dorell Wright will play better in the upcoming season than the did last year.

IMO, anything near 50 wins is really impressive in such a stacked conference.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yes. Part of that was extraordinary good luck with injuries. Part of it was the amazing and unexpected effect of replacing JJ Hickson with Robin Lopez.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I'm on record for predicting the Blazers would go 82-0 so I firmly believe we underachieved last year.

 

[dviss1]

Man... WTF Y'all talkin' bout'? We're gonna be top 3 in the West next season!

 

[Strenuus]

Yes. Part of that was extraordinary good luck with injuries. Part of it was the amazing and unexpected effect of replacing JJ Hickson with Robin Lopez.

This is pretty much it. I think anyone who had realistic expectations were presently surprised, while even the most pessimistic expectation was met with "Well, this is great!"

*please note that Mixums' vote did not count in this study. He was disqualified for mere silliness of epic proportions

 

[riverman]

My answer to the question of the thread is..no.

 

[e_blazer]

Did we win the title? If not, then, no, we did not over achieve. There may be some under - expectation going on though.

 

[maxiep]

There's an old saying that I think holds true for the Blazers: First you win, then you get good.

I think we shocked ourselves in the first half of the season and then when we got LA back after his injury through the Houston series we got really good.

Our win total may not be much better next year, but I think we'll be a much better team than at the beginning of last year.

 

[HailBlazers]

Success in the NBA does have a ton to do with scheduling and we had an easy(ier) one so that's a tough question. Guess it does somewhat depend on your expectations. And don't give me that "I'm a realist BS," everyone has some form of bias positive or negative.

 

[Rhal]

We overachieved sure but that doesnt mean our sucess was a fluke. There will be no huge improvements but we dont need huge improvements to take the leap from a good team to a top 4 in the west team.
The starters gelling a little better on the D side, our bench being better on both sides and more importantly having some consistency will be enough to keep us at the level we played at last year.
I think 55 wins 4th seed.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Sure we overachieved. (That is a good thing... right?) So we may not win 54 this year, but we could still make the 5th seed again. If the west is tougher this upcoming year, than everyone will lose more games.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yes. /thread

Agreed.

 

[Mediocre Man]

yes

 

[BBert]

Yes. They did.

Now do it again.

 

[Natebishop3]

No. They did exactly what I predicted because I'm clearly smarter than everyone here.

 

[jlprk]

Most of us will admit that we were surprised, as was the rest of the league, at that blistering start up into December. Then we fell back to Earth. And it took Damian's miracle 3 to get to the 2nd round (doubt we would have won in Houston).

Yes. Part of that was extraordinary good luck with injuries. Part of it was the amazing and unexpected effect of replacing JJ Hickson with Robin Lopez.

Other factors were 1) Mo was so much more experienced than Nolan and 2) some teams tanked for the great draft but we had no pick.

 

[riverman]

I would fire any coach or trade any player who thinks 54 wins and 2nd round of the playoffs is overachieving. They are paid to win and win it all. Wes said it as did other players. Just making the playoffs isn't the goal, the goal is to win a championship. I don't know if the thread was meant to comfort doubters but being defeatist about a competitive sport? We have beat all the great teams in the league...what's to overachieve? They won two more games than I predicted before the season started and made the second round which I hoped for. Enjoy the achievement. The team earned it. It was no fluke from what I saw

 

[Minstrel]

I would fire any coach or trade any player who thinks 54 wins and 2nd round of the playoffs is overachieving. They are paid to win and win it all. Wes said it as did other players. Just making the playoffs isn't the goal, the goal is to win a championship. I don't know if the thread was meant to comfort doubters but being defeatist about a competitive sport? We have beat all the great teams in the league...what's to overachieve? They won two more games than I predicted before the season started and made the second round which I hoped for. Enjoy the achievement. The team earned it. It was no fluke from what I saw

It's about attempting objective analysis. We're not playing the games, we can dial down emotion and will-to-win and believe-in-yourselves a bit with no adverse effects.

 

[riverman]

It's about attempting objective analysis. We're not playing the games, we can dial down emotion and will-to-win and believe-in-yourselves a bit with no adverse effects.

In my earlier post here I stated "no" I don't think we overachieved. I don't think anything needs to be dialed down when it comes to competitive confidence. What the whole question of the thread is, is a dialing down of what makes a team championship quality. It's not objective to say that we were just lucky shots fell and we won 54 games or teams were tanking so we'd win. To me this is simple objectivity. Optimistic yes, but I'm in the minority here

 

[riverman]

I think the Blazers overachieved...their early run of dominance wasn't sustainable but the wins they got during that run were banked. After that, they played more to their "true talent level" (in my opinion).

I think around 50 wins is realistic for the coming season and that's actually because I believe they improved in the off-season. Not a huge improvement, but I think Blake and Kaman will prevent things from falling apart when Lillard sits and especially on defense when Rolo hits the bench. I also think Dorell Wright will play better in the upcoming season than the did last year.

IMO, anything near 50 wins is really impressive in such a stacked conference.

Why is early dominance unsustainable? Why are 50 wins any more realistic than 54? I think we'll be better too but I don't water down the great season we had for any reason. If anything changed the early dominance it was Freelands injury and Mo's post season injury. We were I believe 29-5 when Freeland was backing up Rolo. After that, we had trouble protecting a lead with bench bigs until the end of the regular season.Mo was hobbled in the post season and that had a huge impact on our abilty to generate offense off the bench DWright has to play better this season, I agree. All the returning bench players do.

 

[e_blazer]

I hate threads like this where the implication is that the Blazers were lucky to win as many games as they did. It belittles the hard work and guts they displayed in getting to where they did. I say it's bull to say they overachieved. For every game you can point to where they caught a break, you can find another where they got screwed. For every win over a "better" team than them, you can find head-scratcher losses to teams like Philly, Sacramento, and the Suns. The Blazers with a bit more attention to those "lesser" teams might have pushed 60 wins. The Blazers earned the record they achieved.

 

[Minstrel]

Why is early dominance unsustainable?

It's not that "early dominance" is unsustainable in general, it's that the Blazers specifically were winning at a rate far above their talent level in the first third of the season or so, in my opinion. The wins count, no one's going to take them away and it helped them get a better seed, but do I think they're going to match that blistering pace again? No. If the Blazers hadn't upgraded their roster, I'd have predicted significantly fewer wins. As it is, since they made some meaningful upgrades (yes, Kaman and Blake aren't great, but they're good enough to help prevent meltdowns when key players sit), I'm predicting some regression, but mild regression.

 

[riverman]

It's not that "early dominance" is unsustainable in general, it's that the Blazers specifically were winning at a rate far above their talent level in the first third of the season or so, in my opinion. The wins count, no one's going to take them away and it helped them get a better seed, but do I think they're going to match that blistering pace again? No. If the Blazers hadn't upgraded their roster, I'd have predicted significantly fewer wins. As it is, since they made some meaningful upgrades (yes, Kaman and Blake aren't great, but they're good enough to help prevent meltdowns when key players sit), I'm predicting some regression, but mild regression.

Fair enough, I'm going with they're going to pretty much replicate the 54 and get to the Western Conference finals for the bump. I also think we'll win our division this season.