Does Webster fit anymore?

[mook]

I'm really trying to see whose minutes Webster should take away when he comes back, and it points out to me how redundant he's become.

Batum - He's a better defender and rebounder than Webster, and seems pretty confident in his three point shot. Webster's got more of a track record on perimeter shooting, but that's the only reason I can see for giving Webster all his minutes. Even if you find that a compelling argument (I don't, given how Rudy, Outlaw, Blake and Roy are shooting from 3) and give Webster all his minutes, that's only 17 mpg. Webster was at 28 mpg last year.

Rudy - There's not a single thing Webster does that Rudy doesn't do better. Nate would be insane to cut a minute from Rudy to give to Martel.

Outlaw - Outlaw's role is to come in off the bench and create shots for himself when the offense is bogged down. Webster just can't play that role.
Outlaw's added "designated 3 point shooter" to his game this year, and although it's probably a fluke, I can't remember Webster every having a 7 game stretch where he shot 65% from distance. When Outlaw shot threes better last year than Webster, the refrain was always "sample size." Outlaw only took 101 of them last year to Webster's 317. But this year Outlaw has taken nearly 3 a game. At some point we're all just going to have to concede that Outlaw is the better perimeter shot, and that time is coming soon.
One last note--although Outlaw gets labeled as "the chucker", Outlaw's been playing for five seasons and his worst FG% (.429 as a rookie) is better than Websters best (.422 last year).
Outlaw's averaging 31 mpg. I suppose you could shave off a few of his minutes, but why? Because we think Outlaw may come down from his insane three point shooting percent? I don't see it.

Rodriguez - Ok, he's getting 10 mpg. Amazingly, he's averaging 3.4 assists in those minutes. But Webster is better than him. Do you axe his minutes and play Rudy/Roy more at PG, freeing up time for Webster at SG? Probably. There's 10 minutes for Webster.

Blake - You can't really cut out all our other PG's just to make space for Webster. Besides, Blake gives you the same perimeter shooting Webster does, and he can at least sort of guard PG's. Webster can't. If you bench Blake, you are consigning Rudy/Roy to guarding the Pauls and Parkers full time. Yuck.

So when Webster comes back, it looks like we probably have to axe all of Batum and Rodriguez's minutes just to get him back to where he was last year. Is it really worth it?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm really trying to see whose minutes Webster should take away when he comes back, and it points out to me how redundant he's become.

...snip...

So when Webster comes back, it looks like we probably have to axe all of Batum and Rodriguez's minutes just to get him back to where he was last year. Is it really worth it?

Interesting insight, and good question. I think Webster will take Batum's minutes in the short term, I think it's probably
worth it. In the long term, well, I've been saying since the middle of last year that the Blazers need to make a 3-for-1
trade. If they do, Webster's role will be clarified (if he's still a Blazer).

One quick note,though: Batum (who may be the starter long term!), Outlaw (I really like seeing him on the floor with Rudy),
and Webster (he really ran the floor well in the preseason) all have EXTREMELY reasonable contracts.

 

[andalusian]

He might cut into Frye's minutes with Outlaw playing more PF. Maybe even with Webster at SF on the 2nd team - since Nic seems to excel with the first team and Webster is a good fast-break finisher - a role he will work well next to Rudy...

 

[RR7]

I think when he gets back, batum will mvoe to the end of the bench. I am excited about the kid, but I think that will just be the reality of it.

 

[SpanishFly]

He might cut into Frye's minutes with Outlaw playing more PF. Maybe even with Webster at SF on the 2nd team - since Nic seems to excel with the first team and Webster is a good fast-break finisher - a role he will work well next to Rudy...

Trade Frye and Webs for G Wallace, T) plays sixth man and backs up LMA, Batum backs up Wallace.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Not to be a broken record, but see if you can find footage (let's hope it's not hairline fracture footage) of Webster's one game in preseason. You know, the game against Sacramento that got us all excited. Outside of Rudy, Webster was perhaps the best player on the floor. He fit PERFECTLY with the Spaniards - alley-ooping and shooting threes. I see him as actually better suited to that second unit. Can we perhaps phase out Channing (painful as that would be, because he's such a great guy), have Outlaw be the backup PF and have an absolute kick-ass second unit of Sergio, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw and Joel? I'd like to see that match up against the Lakers' bench crew that they're crowing so much about.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Not to be a broken record, but see if you can find footage (let's hope it's not hairline fracture footage) of Webster's one game in preseason. You know, the game against Sacramento that got us all excited. Outside of Rudy, Webster was perhaps the best player on the floor. He fit PERFECTLY with the Spaniards - alley-ooping and shooting threes. I see him as actually better suited to that second unit. Can we perhaps phase out Channing (painful as that would be, because he's such a great guy), have Outlaw be the backup PF and have an absolute kick-ass second unit of Sergio, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw and Joel? I'd like to see that match up against the Lakers' bench crew that they're crowing so much about.

+1, I think Webster would be great with the 2nd unit.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Not to be a broken record, but see if you can find footage (let's hope it's not hairline fracture footage) of Webster's one game in preseason. You know, the game against Sacramento that got us all excited. Outside of Rudy, Webster was perhaps the best player on the floor. He fit PERFECTLY with the Spaniards - alley-ooping and shooting threes. I see him as actually better suited to that second unit. Can we perhaps phase out Channing (painful as that would be, because he's such a great guy), have Outlaw be the backup PF and have an absolute kick-ass second unit of Sergio, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw and Joel? I'd like to see that match up against the Lakers' bench crew that they're crowing so much about.

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[Mediocre Man]

Webster is a better overall player than both Batum and Outlaw, unless Outlaw keeps playing the way he is playing.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Healthy lineup this year should be...

Blake | Sergio
Roy | Rudy
Batum | Webster
Aldridge | Outlaw
Oden | Przybilla

cuts out Frye, Diogu and Bayless from any PT barring injuries.... eventually the rotation will be cut with a 3guard rotation and spot minutes to Pryz when needed... We still need a consolidation trade, but WOW, that 10 man rotation is among the best in the league for sure... I think we easily have the best top 12 players on any team in the NBA if you add Bayless and Frye to that bunch.

He still fits though, for sure. I like Outlaw as a backup PF, and the only reason Frye has been playing so much lately is because Oden is out.

 

[andalusian]

Webster is a better overall player than both Batum and Outlaw, unless Outlaw keeps playing the way he is playing.

This is not even close to the truth. Webster has never been an above average player in this league. His best year (last one) he had a PER of 12.0 - making it worse than Outlaw's worst year (also his 3rd) at 12.9 (this was also the only year Outlaw's PER dipped below the 15 mark assigned to an "average" player).

Just in comparison - last year Outlaw's PER was 18.6 - this year he is at 18.7 through last night's game. Batum, after an insignificant game last night - is at 14.2, as a rookie (he was above 15 for his first 6 games).

Webster is a nice kid, he has a nice shooting form, a great NBA body, he has learned to finish well on the break and his defense is getting better - but he is nothing more than a complementary below average player. His saving grace is that he is so young - so maybe he one day will become better - but to say that he is a better overall player than Outlaw is laughable - and even if he is slightly better than Nic at the moment (something I am not sure about) - Nic seems like he has a much higher potential than Webster and he is young, really really young.

The best thing for Webster, long term - is to have Outlaw moved to backup PF and to play in the fast-pace 2nd unit as the SF next to Rudy. He will face worse defenders, slash to the basket for open looks from Rudy and Sergio (if Sergio stays with the team) and will have less pressure to make open shots - since both Travis and Rudy do it so well.

Nic already has a much better handle and moves with the ball than Webster, he rebounds better and he is a better defender.

Outlaw is just a unique talent. He is the only one on the team that can create his own shot night in and night out. Even Roy struggles against some players. LaMarcus is pretty good at creating his own shot as well - but he benefits a lot from pick and roll situations to free him.

 

[Mediocre Man]

This is not even close to the truth. Webster has never been an above average player in this league. His best year (last one) he had a PER of 12.0 - making it worse than Outlaw's worst year (also his 3rd) at 12.9 (this was also the only year Outlaw's PER dipped below the 15 mark assigned to an "average" player).

Just in comparison - last year Outlaw's PER was 18.6 - this year he is at 18.7 through last night's game. Batum, after an insignificant game last night - is at 14.2, as a rookie (he was above 15 for his first 6 games).

Webster is a nice kid, he has a nice shooting form, a great NBA body, he has learned to finish well on the break and his defense is getting better - but he is nothing more than a complementary below average player. His saving grace is that he is so young - so maybe he one day will become better - but to say that he is a better overall player than Outlaw is laughable - and even if he is slightly better than Nic at the moment (something I am not sure about) - Nic seems like he has a much higher potential than Webster and he is young, really really young.

The best thing for Webster, long term - is to have Outlaw moved to backup PF and to play in the fast-pace 2nd unit as the SF next to Rudy. He will face worse defenders, slash to the basket for open looks from Rudy and Sergio (if Sergio stays with the team) and will have less pressure to make open shots - since both Travis and Rudy do it so well.

Nic already has a much better handle and moves with the ball than Webster, he rebounds better and he is a better defender.

Outlaw is just a unique talent. He is the only one on the team that can create his own shot night in and night out. Even Roy struggles against some players. LaMarcus is pretty good at creating his own shot as well - but he benefits a lot from pick and roll situations to free him.

Shannon Brown
Chris Quinn
Trevor Ariza
Ryan Anderson
Ben Gordon
Will Bynum

All of those players have a higher PER than Brandon Roy. Are any of them better than Roy? No. PER might be the most useless stat in the world.

Webster is a better overall player than Travis. He is a better defender, he is a better passer, he is a better ball handler. It's not all about stats.

 

[alex42083]

Not to be a broken record, but see if you can find footage (let's hope it's not hairline fracture footage) of Webster's one game in preseason. You know, the game against Sacramento that got us all excited. Outside of Rudy, Webster was perhaps the best player on the floor. He fit PERFECTLY with the Spaniards - alley-ooping and shooting threes. I see him as actually better suited to that second unit. Can we perhaps phase out Channing (painful as that would be, because he's such a great guy), have Outlaw be the backup PF and have an absolute kick-ass second unit of Sergio, Rudy, Webster, Outlaw and Joel? I'd like to see that match up against the Lakers' bench crew that they're crowing so much about.

Being at that game, it was amazing the chemistry Martell had with Rudy especially. Other than Rudy, Webster is really the only guy you could throw alley-oops too on this team.
You could say both have similar type games. Both can shoot and run off screens, so I'm sure they know what each other is thinking to get open.

 

[andalusian]

Shannon Brown
Chris Quinn
Trevor Ariza
Ryan Anderson
Ben Gordon
Will Bynum

All of those players have a higher PER than Brandon Roy. Are any of them better than Roy? No. PER might be the most useless stat in the world.

Webster is a better overall player than Travis. He is a better defender, he is a better passer, he is a better ball handler. It's not all about stats.

With the exception of Ben Gordon - none of these guys play any minutes worth mentioning - so their PER is not important - and Ben Gordon's defense is atrocious - if he was not such a defensive liability - Ben Gordon would be worth a lot more than he does - because he is a fantastic scorer.

Travis and Webster play similar minutes - their defense is not worlds apart (Webster is a slightly better on the ball defender, Outlaw is a slightly better help defender). Travis is not a worse passer than Martel (he had a slighly higher assist average than Web last year, despite the fact that he plays less with the starters so he has to pass to lesser scorers). Martel is not a good ball handler. He just is not. Travis was not good last year - he is much improved this year.

Martel is not a better overall player than Outlaw, he just isn't. He might be a better complementary player next to guys that need many touches to thrive like Roy and Aldridge - but he is not an overall better player.

The big problem for Martell is that Nic seems like he will be an even better complementary player in the first unit - since his defense is so stout.

 

[hasoos]

I find it really funny that this question is even asked after Batums 1pt 5 foul performance last night.

 

[mook]

I find it really funny that this question is even asked after Batums 1pt 5 foul performance last night.

Yeah, because Webster has never completely disappeared in a game before.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Shannon Brown
Chris Quinn
Trevor Ariza
Ryan Anderson
Ben Gordon
Will Bynum

All of those players have a higher PER than Brandon Roy. Are any of them better than Roy? No. PER might be the most useless stat in the world.

Webster is a better overall player than Travis. He is a better defender, he is a better passer, he is a better ball handler. It's not all about stats.

As long as they keep score, it is going to be about the stats. The scoreboard doesn't care how pretty your shot is. It doesn't care if you catch-and-shoot in the flow of the offense, or go 1-on-1. It only cares if the shot goes in!

As for your comparison, saying Webster is "better" is rather disingeneous. "Arguably less awful" would be closer to the point. Both of these guys are one-trick-ponies - and neither is the long-term answer.

 

[MAS RipCity]

I am a firm believer that Outlaw > Marty, but if Marty comes back, I give Outlaw all of Channing's minutes and a bit of the backup 3 as well. Marty can either start or come off of the bench.

We really do need to make a 3 for 1, as long as we don't trade Outlaw (don't see us getting fair value back for what he actually brings to the table), I'm good.

 

[MAS RipCity]

Being at that game, it was amazing the chemistry Martell had with Rudy especially. Other than Rudy, Webster is really the only guy you could throw alley-oops too on this team.
You could say both have similar type games. Both can shoot and run off screens, so I'm sure they know what each other is thinking to get open.

Really? I seem to remember Outlaw throwing 2 down at the end of last season. He probably has the highest vert on the team, and would throw more down if we ran more.

 

[Mediocre Man]

As long as they keep score, it is going to be about the stats. The scoreboard doesn't care how pretty your shot is. It doesn't care if you catch-and-shoot in the flow of the offense, or go 1-on-1. It only cares if the shot goes in!

As for your comparison, saying Webster is "better" is rather disingeneous. "Arguably less awful" would be closer to the point. Both of these guys are one-trick-ponies - and neither is the long-term answer.

I like your point about less awful as opposed to better. I agree with that.

 

[Haakzilla]

...I know a lot of you get bored in between games and really just like discussing this team in general, but it is absurd to even try to analyze Webster at this point. If you want to go by the one game sample from the pre-season, then it is more than clear that he will be turning the corner and breaking out this season [since that is the only game we have seen to show how much he has worked on his game in the off-season]. It's really a shame that he even got hurt, but there is no way any true basketball/Blazers fan can just right him off without seeing his progress this year [unless you were always in the camp against him from day one...and fools I say to that camp] I think a lot of you get blinded by the bright potential that all of the youth has, but please try to keep it all in perspective and remember that WEBSTER IS ONLY 21/entering his 4th season and HE HAS IMPROVED EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!!

 

[hasoos]

Yeah, because Webster has never completely disappeared in a game before.

Do you honestly expect Webster to dissappear to that point now? Maybe a few years ago. Not now. Webster knows how to contribute even when not scoring now.

 

[andalusian]

but please try to keep it all in perspective and remember that WEBSTER IS ONLY 21/entering his 4th season and HE HAS IMPROVED EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!!

While Martell did improve last year from his previous 2 years - this statement just is not true. Martell's rookie campaign was better than his 2nd year (probably because he had to play a new position as Roy took his SG minutes).

During his rookie year he shot a higher percentage, his per 36 scoring went down during his 2nd year, his FT% went down, his turn-over rate went up but he did rebound a little more. Overall - his PER went down from his rookie year to his 2nd year.

The most glaring problem with Martell's progress is that while his defense went from bad to acceptable - his overall offensive production has not. His most productive per-minute scoring year was his first - yes, he scored more points per game last year - but he did it at about twice as many minutes of play...

He had a small increase in rebounding rate, a small increase in assists rate and his shooting percentage went up a bit - but basically his "improvements" on the offensive end came from playing more minutes - not from becoming a better offensive player.

He basically went from an OK rookie to a below average rotation player offensively - and his defense has gone from bad to acceptable (and this is the reason he gets more minutes - since Portland was pretty thin at the SF position - with Jones injured a lot and Travis playing PF). The problem is that Portland is no longer thin at the SF position - Nic is probably our SF of the future and he is our best defensive prospect at the 3 and until some decision is made about Frye's future with the team - Travis spends time at the SF position as well - and Travis is a much better offensive player than Webster - his per 36 points, assists, rebounds and steals are higher.

 

[C_note]

This is not even close to the truth. Webster has never been an above average player in this league. His best year (last one) he had a PER of 12.0 - making it worse than Outlaw's worst year (also his 3rd) at 12.9 (this was also the only year Outlaw's PER dipped below the 15 mark assigned to an "average" player).

Just in comparison - last year Outlaw's PER was 18.6 - this year he is at 18.7 through last night's game. Batum, after an insignificant game last night - is at 14.2, as a rookie (he was above 15 for his first 6 games).

Webster is a nice kid, he has a nice shooting form, a great NBA body, he has learned to finish well on the break and his defense is getting better - but he is nothing more than a complementary below average player. His saving grace is that he is so young - so maybe he one day will become better - but to say that he is a better overall player than Outlaw is laughable - and even if he is slightly better than Nic at the moment (something I am not sure about) - Nic seems like he has a much higher potential than Webster and he is young, really really young.

The best thing for Webster, long term - is to have Outlaw moved to backup PF and to play in the fast-pace 2nd unit as the SF next to Rudy. He will face worse defenders, slash to the basket for open looks from Rudy and Sergio (if Sergio stays with the team) and will have less pressure to make open shots - since both Travis and Rudy do it so well.

Nic already has a much better handle and moves with the ball than Webster, he rebounds better and he is a better defender.

Outlaw is just a unique talent. He is the only one on the team that can create his own shot night in and night out. Even Roy struggles against some players. LaMarcus is pretty good at creating his own shot as well - but he benefits a lot from pick and roll situations to free him.

Nope, you're completely wrong. Webster is still the best SF we have overall. A much improved handle, above-average defensively now, still lights-out capability, and now much more explosive than he's ever been. Hopefully he won't this mentality when he returns.

I like Batum, but you're severely delusional if you think he's better than Webs...Maybe in a few years, but I doubt that as well. Webster is getting better all the time too...

And I'm sick of hearing Webster can't create his own shot. He definitely can, he has more ability than Outlaw does...it was just never his role in the past. Stand in the corner and shoot the 3, that's all McMillan let him do/ as well as the ramifications of an offense led by Jarrett Jack.

Spew all the meaningless stats you want. These kids are all still 23 or under. When I watch basketball, I evaluate talent and ability; I can see that Webster has more ability than both Outlaw and Batum.

 

[andalusian]

Spew all the meaningless stats you want. These kids are all still 23 or under. When I watch basketball, I evaluate talent and ability; I can see that Webster has more ability than both Outlaw and Batum.

Oh. I am sorry. I did not realize that I needed to watch the games too.

Excuse me - but I watch the games as well - and I see what Webster is - you might disagree with me - but to claim that you watch and therefore you know - while I watch and have no clue is questionable at best, unfortunately for you - the numbers do not match your assesment. I like Marty, I really do - He is a nice kid - but he is a complementary player at best.

I said before and I will say again - he is extremely young - so he might turn into more than this - but he is not special at any facet of the game.

 

[BenDavis503x]

I think we need Webbie. We need to make room for him but not cut out ANY minutes from Rudy. Take away Frye or Outlaw minutes for Webster.

 

[Haakzilla]

While Martell did improve last year from his previous 2 years - this statement just is not true. Martell's rookie campaign was better than his 2nd year (probably because he had to play a new position as Roy took his SG minutes).

During his rookie year he shot a higher percentage, his per 36 scoring went down during his 2nd year, his FT% went down, his turn-over rate went up but he did rebound a little more. Overall - his PER went down from his rookie year to his 2nd year.

The most glaring problem with Martell's progress is that while his defense went from bad to acceptable - his overall offensive production has not. His most productive per-minute scoring year was his first - yes, he scored more points per game last year - but he did it at about twice as many minutes of play...

He had a small increase in rebounding rate, a small increase in assists rate and his shooting percentage went up a bit - but basically his "improvements" on the offensive end came from playing more minutes - not from becoming a better offensive player.

He basically went from an OK rookie to a below average rotation player offensively - and his defense has gone from bad to acceptable (and this is the reason he gets more minutes - since Portland was pretty thin at the SF position - with Jones injured a lot and Travis playing PF). The problem is that Portland is no longer thin at the SF position - Nic is probably our SF of the future and he is our best defensive prospect at the 3 and until some decision is made about Frye's future with the team - Travis spends time at the SF position as well - and Travis is a much better offensive player than Webster - his per 36 points, assists, rebounds and steals are higher.

...so, you think your beloved decimal points paint your picture crystal clear?! Is that all?! Jaded statistical analysis?!

 

[Haakzilla]

but he is not special at any facet of the game.

...yeah because 24 points in one quarter is not special [everyone can do that, duh]!!!

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I think the discussion is moot at this point. Webster looked more active and overall better in pre-season. Does that translate to regular season? Only time will tell.

I think once Martell is back, he gets opportunity to play a number of games before we start judging him too critically (it may take a few games before he starts to get back into the flow) and then as he has had a chance to play more and show his current abilities, all comparisons are moot. It is not fair to compare Outlaw and Batum (current) to Martell (historic).

Outlaw seems to be more consistent this year and I believe his shooting is improved. Let's give Martell a chance to show what, if any, improvements he has made and then make the comparison.

Batum hasn't show the offensive capabilities of either Martell or Outlaw but his defensive instincts are better than either of the other two.

Some of the decisions may be situational, others positional (for example Travis spending some time at PF) but whatever the case, management seemed very high on Martell in pre-season and I don't think it wise to write him off as no longer fitting with the team without giving him a full eval with the team first.

Gramps...

 

[andalusian]

...yeah because 24 points in one quarter is not special [everyone can do that, duh]!!!

No. That was a great quarter from him. But it's not like this is the norm. This was an exception.

I really do not hate Webster - I just do not think he has shown himself to be anything other than a one quarter wonder once a year - and the numbers show that his per-36 offensive numbers have not really changed - his offensive improvement comes mostly from getting more minutes. I did tell you that I think he has become a better defensive player - and that's why he is getting these extra minutes - but the entire "he improves every year" sound bite was not right for his 2nd vs. 1st year - and the place where he really come along was on the defensive end - he still can't create for himself.

His great quarter was a combination of a hot-shooting night, Roy being down and Nate going with the hot-hand and the fact that the Jazz did not switch on him coming of screens - he got his points by being a spot shooter in a hot night when the opposing team was concentrating on switching off the dribble - going into the 4th quarter (it was the 4th, if memory serves) - Sloan noticed what was happening - they started switching on him - and his offensive output was 1 shot (missed) and 2 defensive rebounds.

Now - if he could be as active running of back-door cuts and coming off screens all the time - he would be Rudy Fernandez. That is a great thing - but for Webster - this is not the norm.

Now - if me not being able to call him the greatest thing since sliced bread because of one magical quarter labels me a hater - so be it. Ignore the rest of his average body of work for his once a year magnificent quarter.

Don't get me wrong - nothing will make me happier than seeing Webster dominate night in and night out - and that's why I think he would work better in the 2nd faster-paced group with Rudy and Sergio - because if there is something he can do well - it is finish on the break.