Does Webster fit anymore?

[STOMP]

Webster is a better overall player than both Batum and Outlaw, unless Outlaw keeps playing the way he is playing.

You've expressed this for a while, time keeps making the claim seem more and more out of touch. Outlaw has been much more productive then Webster for some time now and he's continued to widen the gap. He possesses the more varied and valuable skillset and is bigger, longer, and more athletic. He's even shown to be better at Webster's one positive... shooting. He shot a better percentage from deep last year, he was also better from the field and the line. This year he's taken Martell's stand in the corner to spread the D role to a level that MW has never approached. Travis is at least as good a defender, is a far superior rebounder/shotblocker... I'd even point to his work on his handle this past offseason giving him another advantage over Web. I'm with Mook seeing no reason to give MW any of Travis's PT... or Rudy's for that matter. He's a decent enough player but he's not as good as some of his teammates.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the starting role back from Nic after he rounds back into game shape though. If a player worthy of minutes has got to sit, I see Nate opting to let the rook pay his dues. But if he doesn't quickly blend and excel with the opportunity, if he struggles with the yips on his shot as he's done, that could change. As KP repeatedly noted last year, Portland could use a good wing defender... you don't say that if you're pleased with the D of the incumbent.

Dudes got his work cut out for him


STOMP

 

[MrJayremmie]

I think both Webster and Outlaw are not too far apart. Outlaw just doesn't have it between the ears for me to think he is going to make another big leap, and his game will never be complimentary enough to be a starter, and is also a one trick pony, even moreso than Webster, imo, as Webster learned last year how to start contributing without having to score (he still has a long way to go). But it seems that Outlaw has improved his rebounding a bit (thanks mom!), which is a good start.

I would really like to see how Webster has improved over the off-season. I'm not buying that he improved as much as people like Barrett said he did, but I can't make judgement of who is really better right now until i see him play (I liked what i saw in his preseason game but he may lose a big advantage he had over this 2 month injury, and that was being in great shape).

 

[LittleAlex]

How about we let Martell play into the rotation after comming off a fairly serious foot injury? As far as I am concerned, the team misses Martell more then Oden. There were several times where his outside shooting would have helped in games where the rest of the team stopped hitting shots.

 

[STOMP]

I think both Webster and Outlaw are not too far apart. Outlaw just doesn't have it between the ears for me to think he is going to make another big leap, and his game will never be complimentary enough to be a starter, and is also a one trick pony, even moreso than Webster, imo, as Webster learned last year how to start contributing without having to score (he still has a long way to go). But it seems that Outlaw has improved his rebounding a bit (thanks mom!), which is a good start.

Outlaw's rebounding was considerably better then Webster last year. They played almost the exact same amount of minutes overall so their stats are pretty easy to compare. Travis outrebounded Martell 376-242. Steals was 59-42, Blocks 63-28. TO also got to the line almost twice as often. If Travis is a one trick pony and struggles to contribute outside of scoring as you contend, then what does that say about Martell?

And btw... between the ears is the last thing I give Martell credit for. Dude has had issues.

STOMP

 

[ehizzy3]

when is webster going to be back?

 

[andalusian]

I thought they were talking about January or something like that.

 

[KingSpeed]

andalusion is right. I've been saying it over and over. Webster will cut into Frye's minutes and no one else's. Webster is better than Batum. Webster will start. Batum will play off the bench. Outlaw will play lots of minutes at PF. Batum is starting to get a little bit overrated in here. Webster is a much more proven player. Batum is a 19 year old rookie still learning the ropes.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

andalusion is right. I've been saying it over and over. Webster will cut into Frye's minutes and no one else's. Webster is better than Batum. Webster will start. Batum will play off the bench. Outlaw will play lots of minutes at PF. Batum is starting to get a little bit overrated in here. Webster is a much more proven player. Batum is a 19 year old rookie still learning the ropes.

Agreed that Batum might be overrated here. However, Batum's ceiling is higher, as is the likelihood that
he will reach that ceiling. But, for the first time, I was a bit excited to see what Web could do because
of his new attitude and hustle. He'll get his starting role back. Hopefully, he'll do well. But, I think he's
better suited to a running game, and that's the 2nd unit (as long as Roy mans the 2 spot). So, eventually
he may move there.

 

[ehizzy3]

he got his boot off saturday????? that means he should start doing rehab, i think he'll be back by mid december

 

[The_Lillard_King]

I see Webster going back to the starting rotation with Outlaw and Rudy filling up the minutes behind him. Between Outlaw and Webster, the more effective player during the game will probably get to stay out there longer and get more minutes.

Batum will be pushed back to spot minutes . . . at least I hope so. I really want to see a 9 man rotation with 7 players getting the bulk of the minutes. Blazers have a lot of good young talent, maybe enought to afford the main crew a little more resting time than usual. But these games count, most teams are playing their top 7-8 trying to win games, and Blazers have to think the same way. Egos will be bruised, but you got to go with your top guys during the season.

I think the 8-9 rotation will be Blake, Roy, Webster, LA, Joel, Oden, Outlaw, Rudy. The rest will have to make the most of their oppportunties (including Batum, Bayless, Frye and Sergio . . . that is one stacked team, too bad you only put five out there at a time . . . we beat any team 12 on 12)

 

[andalusian]

The thing I like about Batum - is that he does a much better job than either Outlaw and Webster on some players. Specifically - T-Mac. I remember last year's Rockets game at the garden - T-Mac just abused us at will. He still got his numbers in this game - but he had to work a lot harder and missed more shots (or at least it looked like it) with Batum on him.

 

[C_note]

Oh. I am sorry. I did not realize that I needed to watch the games too.

Excuse me - but I watch the games as well - and I see what Webster is - you might disagree with me - but to claim that you watch and therefore you know - while I watch and have no clue is questionable at best, unfortunately for you - the numbers do not match your assesment. I like Marty, I really do - He is a nice kid - but he is a complementary player at best.

I said before and I will say again - he is extremely young - so he might turn into more than this - but he is not special at any facet of the game.

Lol, no need to get mad. I realize we both think in extremely different ways; I was just stating that when I watch the games, that's how I evaluate... not by PER's and whatnot, which I think are extremely overrated for developing players.

 

[C_note]

This board seems to be pretty clearly divided in the belief that

A) Webster has the most potential/highest ceiling

and

B) Batum " "

I'm definitely in the Webster camp. Can't exactly put my finger on what it is I like so much about Webster, although Batum's potential is very close/similar.

But I'm sure you've all heard before, often GMs can only go so far with stats and blah blah blah. They have to use intuition/feeling sometimes. KP is definitely that type of GM. This is a topic that no amount of statistics will solve...

 

[andalusian]

Lol, no need to get mad. I realize we both think in extremely different ways; I was just stating that when I watch the games, that's how I evaluate... not by PER's and whatnot, which I think are extremely overrated for developing players.

Fair enough - but it is hard to discuss this issue in any kind of reasonable way if you can not measure it and offer some kind of proof to your opinion.

PER has it's issues - defensive ability is not properly reflected in it. It has it's own biases - but from pretty much every offensive category these two are pretty much the same or the numbers are decisively in Travis's favor - PER, scoring, rebounding, blocks etc...

... and while PER is useless when you compare players in different positions (what a good PG brings to the table is very different from what a good PF does) and can show issues when you discuss players on different teams with their different pace or players with different playing time - these issues really do not cause a problem in the Travis vs Marty discussion. They both play with the same team, the same pace and about the same amount of minutes. If the difference was some decimal points between them - I would argue that it is too close to call - but since the numbers favor Travis so much - I think they make a lot more sense and do a better job of reflecting what they really are worth to the team.

From here on the only thing that one can really talk about is what their potential is - and it seems to me that a lot of the Webster fans put a lot of weight on this issue - his age, the fact that he came to the league 2 years after Travis, etc... - it might be right, it might be wrong, I do not know - but if we notice that Travis played only 8 games in his rookie year and not that many minutes in his 2nd year under Cheeks (not the best development coach out there) - the difference in their experience is not that big. During his career, Travis played only 800 more minutes than Webster - that's less than 1/2 a year in their current minutes played (they are both a little over 2000 minutes a year).

 

[BrianFromWA]

I want to see Webs back before I make definitive claims that one or another of you is off your rocker. But I think it's quite disingenuous to use the majority of stats you're using (FT attempts, etc) to compare the two. Travis was given the spot of the me-first, no-conscience gunner in the 2nd unit last year. He did above average (9th in 6th Man voting, decent but unspectacular %s, etc). Martell was the starting 3, most nights the 3rd/4th option on offense, and told to stay in the corner to space the floor for Roy most nights. He also drew the toughest perimeter defensive assignments each night, while Travis generally played zone, or got lost when he played man-to-man (and still does). When Webs was given the chance to be the gunner, he went off for 24 in one quarter. (Yes, I recognize the small sample size, but I submit that the sample size of when Nate let Webs shoot, and drew up plays for him.

I'm one of the people that brings up the Kings game. He and Rudy had a chemistry b/c both knew what the other was looking for and wanting to do. Webs looked for Rudy curling off screens...if he wasn't open he'd give it back knowing he'd get it back if he was open. Both want to play above the rim (BTW...Sergio's the only PG on our team that's even looking for easy points like that). Both have the stamina to run Rip Hamilton-style all night long, all over the floor.

Outlaw's always been best as a backup PF that can extend the floor, and play help D in the paint. When he has to guard Miller and McGrady and Ime Udoka it's hurtful to watch.

Travis has a special skill, in that he's kind of like a 6'9 Ben Gordon. Webs is much more broad-based, and Batum's a stopper/scrapper who doesn't need the ball on offense. I concur with those who say start Batum, and have a Sergio/Rudy/Webs/Outlaw line go in from time to time for 6 minutes or so.

 

[alex42083]

Really? I seem to remember Outlaw throwing 2 down at the end of last season. He probably has the highest vert on the team, and would throw more down if we ran more.

That was practically a practice with no Memphis defense at all. Travis does have a high vertical, but when it comes to alley-oops, I don't think he has the right footwork and eye-hand coordination that Webster does in a real game-time situation.
Other than those two, I don't remember any other time Outlaw has done an alley-oop.

But in any case, it feels silly to argue about who is the better alley-ooper.

 

[C_note]

That was practically a practice with no Memphis defense at all. Travis does have a high vertical, but when it comes to alley-oops, I don't think he has the right footwork and eye-hand coordination that Webster does in a real game-time situation.
Other than those two, I don't remember any other time Outlaw has done an alley-oop.

But in any case, it feels silly to argue about who is the better alley-ooper.

I think I recall a Fred Jones to Outlaw alley-oop long ago. Not sure though...

 

[KingSpeed]

That was practically a practice with no Memphis defense at all. Travis does have a high vertical, but when it comes to alley-oops, I don't think he has the right footwork and eye-hand coordination that Webster does in a real game-time situation.
Other than those two, I don't remember any other time Outlaw has done an alley-oop.

But in any case, it feels silly to argue about who is the better alley-ooper.

Travis' two alley oop dunks were both from Sergio passes from center court.

[video=youtube;pae5GLy-9Zc]

Impressive.

 

[Jayps15]

Webster still fits this team just fine, I personally like the Sergio/Rudy/Webster/Outlaw/(Joel or Oden) 2nd unit quite a bit and think it would run very smoothly. Webster's superior speed, finishing at the rim, perimeter D, and understanding of the offense would be an upgrade at the SF, and moving Outlaw back to PF where he was far more productive last season would be an upgrade over what we've seen from Frye so far this year. With the added benefit of Batum continuing to see time as an all around utility player with the 1st unit. That unit seeing 10-15 minutes per game together could be one of the best scoring benches in the NBA and could get us leads or maintain them against a lot of our competition.

 

[shamelessblazer]

Webster will return, Frye will get next to no minutes and Outlaw will play the backup 4 (reason he's been good lately) and Batum will get no minutes...pretty simple really.

Really I think the thing is Frye and Outlaw are both rhythm players and if we can only play one of them (at backup 3/4) anyways, if we can consolidate for something better, we gotta do it (not to mention both have unsure contracts that could cost us a fair amount). I don't know if we can get a whole lot better return on offense than those two, but I do believe firmly that we can get a 3/4 who defends much better (and aggressively) than those two and is better on the break with Sergio and Fernandez. That's why I'm a big proponent of a Gerald Wallace trade personally.

When Webster/Oden come back
Blake 28/Sergio 10/Roy 10
Roy 26/Fernandez 22
Webster 30/Outlaw 18
Aldridge 34/Outlaw 14
Oden 28/Prz 20

with Batum, Bayless and Frye getting quite a few DNP's (IMO).

 

[MrJayremmie]

Outlaw's rebounding was considerably better then Webster last year. They played almost the exact same amount of minutes overall so their stats are pretty easy to compare. Travis outrebounded Martell 376-242. Steals was 59-42, Blocks 63-28. TO also got to the line almost twice as often. If Travis is a one trick pony and struggles to contribute outside of scoring as you contend, then what does that say about Martell?

And btw... between the ears is the last thing I give Martell credit for. Dude has had issues.

STOMP

Didn't Travis play more minutes and more games? And didn't he play PF a lot (which would give him a reb. edge over a SF and a little edge in blocked shots)? I don't think those are really valid, tbh.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Webster will return, Frye will get next to no minutes and Outlaw will play the backup 4 (reason he's been good lately) and Batum will get no minutes...pretty simple really.

Really I think the thing is Frye and Outlaw are both rhythm players and if we can only play one of them (at backup 3/4) anyways, if we can consolidate for something better, we gotta do it (not to mention both have unsure contracts that could cost us a fair amount). I don't know if we can get a whole lot better return on offense than those two, but I do believe firmly that we can get a 3/4 who defends much better (and aggressively) than those two and is better on the break with Sergio and Fernandez. That's why I'm a big proponent of a Gerald Wallace trade personally.

When Webster/Oden come back
Blake 28/Sergio 10/Roy 10
Roy 26/Fernandez 22
Webster 30/Outlaw 18
Aldridge 34/Outlaw 14
Oden 28/Prz 20

with Batum, Bayless and Frye getting quite a few DNP's (IMO).

ouch... that is way too much talent to be sitting on the bench. But this scenerio is very likely.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

Any doubts Nate immediately puts Webster back in as starter once he's healthy? Batum and Frye's minutes will drastically be cut until we can make a trade at the trade deadline. Something to consider is Webster and Travis's contracts are very trade friendly. If we are going to trade Webster it won't happen until after he comes back from injury. The last date I heard was he would be back around December 4th. I'm a big Batum fan and believe he's going to be a very good player but Webster adds more to the team right now. Teams will have to pick their poison when Webster comes back they have to figure out who they double team Oden with. Blake (shooting lights out right now), Roy (lol not gonna happen), LMA (again not gonna happen), Webster (maybe for a while) and Rudy (no flipping way).

I don't think we'll be talking about this after Feb trade deadline, some of these guys will be gone.

 

[andalusian]

Didn't Travis play more minutes and more games? And didn't he play PF a lot (which would give him a reb. edge over a SF and a little edge in blocked shots)? I don't think those are really valid, tbh.

Yes, Travis played 54 more minutes last year than Martell (2186 vs 2132).

Their per 36 minutes statistics however take care of equalizing that very small difference.

PPG: 18.0 vs. 13.5
FTA: 4.8 vs 2.8
Rebounds: 6.2 vs 5.0
Assists: 1.7 vs 1.5 (dispelling the notion that Travis is a black-hole)
Steals: 1.0 vs 0.7
Blocks: 0.8 vs. 0.5
TOV: 1.8 vs 1.4 (Advantage Webster)
PER: 15.7 vs 12.0
FG% 0.443 vs 0.422
3P% 0.396 vs 0.388
Martel's TS% is higher than Travis's - because he takes a much higher percentage of 3P to 2P shots - 1.7 3PA for Travis vs. 5.4 3PA for Martel - it tells us what we already know - Travis creates for himself, Martel is a spot-up shooter - but if Travis would actually shoot more 3s as a spot-up shooter (his 3P% is better than Martell's - his TS% would go way up - for example, this year he is shooting 3.2 3PA per 36 and his TS% is up significantly) I am guessing that Nate and the coaching staff noticed that they are under-utilizing Travis's long-ball capability and they are encouraging him to shoot it more.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Assists: 1.7 vs 1.5 (dispelling the notion that Travis is a black-hole)

How? Webster rarely has the ball in his hands, while Travis does alot playing in the second unit. Outlaw has all the talent and the world and he could set up teammates sooo well if he wanted to.

Its just different because Outlaw and Webster can't be compared like that as they played different positions for most of the year last year AND played different team's units (Webster primarily vs. Starters while Outlaw played plenty vs other team's benches).

Hopefully this is the year that Travis works on doing other things outside of only scoring like passing more, blocking shots and rebounding more (which he is so far).

But GOD i do not want Batum's minutes to be cut. He can do "other things" better than both Outlaw and Webster...

 

[roydezlaw]

It's amazing to read all this arguing about Webster vs. Outlaw. It was just last week most of you had Outlaw out the door which I think is ridiculous. Outlaw is a one trick pony? Then we better get rid of Nate for giving him all those minutes(and Websters minutes) in the most crucial time of the games. I think Nate sees what I see and that is Travis steps up his game when it is important and becomes a good defender and causes some havoc with his speed and length, causing turnovers and getting rebounds and he's not afraid to take the shot or make it or step to the line in pressure situations. Travis is improving every year and he hasn't reached his ceiling and to say he isn't smart enough to get better just means you are a pompous ass and has nothing to do with the truth. Travis will still play with Rudy in the 4th quarters when Martell comes back but there are plenty of minutes for Web with the starters. Frye will end up the odd man out. having 3 Euros, Travis and Joel for a second unit will be a thing of beauty and much more exciting to watch then the first unit.

 

[andalusian]

How? Webster rarely has the ball in his hands, while Travis does alot playing in the second unit. Outlaw has all the talent and the world and he could set up teammates sooo well if he wanted to.

That's only half the equation, however. The other half is that assists require other scorers on the court to make the shot from a pass - and playing with the first group would enable Martell to pass to Roy and Aldridge instead of Jack and Frye...

We have no statistic to prove that Travis has more touches than Martell (I suspect that if he does - it is not a lot, especially last year - our first unit had more ball movement than the 2nd unit).

Travis's role was to shoot a lot on the 2nd unit - he was pretty much our #1 scoring option there - so the fact the managed to assist more per 36 than Webster, while playing with team-mates less capable of making the shot - tells me that labeling him a black hole is wrong.

Our sample size for this year is small - but now, playing with Rudy (someone who can make shots) - he is taking less shots per 36 (he is now at around the same shot attempts per 36 than Martell had last year playing with the first unit) - but still has a slightly higher assists per 36 minutes than Webster had last year.

The numbers really do not support the idea that he is a huge black hole and Webster is a distributor compared to him. The difference is small to negligible. Travis had a very well defined role to play last year - and he did what was expected from him. You put scorers around him - and he does not attempt as many shots and still distributes at the same rate Webster did last year.

 

[alex42083]

It's amazing to read all this arguing about Webster vs. Outlaw. It was just last week most of you had Outlaw out the door which I think is ridiculous.

That was before we knew all he needed was a talk with Mommy.

 

[shamelessblazer]

Martel's TS% is higher than Travis's - because he takes a much higher percentage of 3P to 2P shots - 1.7 3PA for Travis vs. 5.4 3PA for Martel - it tells us what we already know - Travis creates for himself, Martel is a spot-up shooter - but if Travis would actually shoot more 3s as a spot-up shooter (his 3P% is better than Martell's - his TS% would go way up - for example, this year he is shooting 3.2 3PA per 36 and his TS% is up significantly) I am guessing that Nate and the coaching staff noticed that they are under-utilizing Travis's long-ball capability and they are encouraging him to shoot it more.

that's BS guy, Travis is hitting a lot of threes right now because he is very hot, and defenses are still daring him to do it (which he does 3-4 times a game) when he's wide open. He's not opening up the floor at all, (though I'll take all the makes) and his mid-range game (which he creates for himself) stinks right now. As soon as they start defending him more (or he makes it more a part of his game as you suggest) those number go right back down. You operate in the same vein as guys who bring up 12 guy stats (who gets 5 minutes in a blowout) and look at per 40's on em saying they should start.

 

[andalusian]

Travis shot the 3 ball better than Martell last year as well - your argument just does not hold water. Is he going to be as hot as he is now over the year - doubt it - but if he comes down to last year's 3P percentage - it is still better than Webster's 3P% was - and he should be taking more 3s. What is important is that Travis is shooting more than 1.7 3 pointers per 36 as he did last year - while Webster (who shot a lower percentage) - shot 5.4 3P per 36.

Your argument about Travis not shooting the 2 ball well this year is right on the money - but he still finds way to play better than he did last year via rebounding and 3P shooting. His PER for the year is higher than it was last year, his TS% is up... and this is after he had a slow start to the season... What's not to love?

 

[1 Eye Jack]

If Travis keeps rebounding the way he did the last couple of games my opinion on him will change. Right now he's the odd man out when we decide to make a trade. Main reason for me is his on the ball defense is still below average and he only has one role that works for him and that's scorer off the bench.