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Also gonna come up buying toilet paper from doomsday preppers. That and crypto
 
Lanny said:
Thank God because I haven't pulled out of the market completely, just mostly. Gotta recoup something before I pull out completely.
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Don’t pull out anymore but don’t buy just yet either. Look for another 5-10% drop but that will be bottom.
After that it will slowly recover. Time to buy and hold.
 
kjironman1 said:
Don’t pull out anymore but don’t buy just yet either. Look for another 5-10% drop but that will be bottom.
After that it will slowly recover. Time to buy and hold.
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I'm not so sure about that.
 
Lanny said:
I'm not so sure about that.
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We never are but dropping more than 35% would be totally unprecedented in modern times. They will not let things crash like 1929. It's actually impossible the way things are set up now. After 1987 they applied stop losses and curbs to keep things in order. The high was 29,568 so you figure a 25% drop puts it at 22,176. Current is 23,185 but it has been much lower at 21,154 for a very short time. Lets say it drops 35%? 19,219. That would be absolute bottom in every look i am seeing.

Question- Why was it absolutely wrong to bail out the auto industry but now all the sudden we are ok with bailing out princess cruise lines and hotels?
 
kjironman1 said:
We never are but dropping more than 35% would be totally unprecedented in modern times. They will not let things crash like 1929. It's actually impossible the way things are set up now. After 1987 they applied stop losses and curbs to keep things in order. The high was 29,568 so you figure a 25% drop puts it at 22,176. Current is 23,185 but it has been much lower at 21,154 for a very short time. Lets say it drops 35%? 19,219. That would be absolute bottom in every look i am seeing.

Question- Why was it absolutely wrong to bail out the auto industry but now all the sudden we are ok with bailing out princess cruise lines and hotels?
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I dont agree with bailing out the private sector at all. I think the difference is Banks and Auto Industry basically did it to themselves, the cruises and hotels did not start a virus and while yes they maybe need higher standards of cleanliness, travel bans and such arent really under their control.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
I dont agree with bailing out the private sector at all. I think the difference is Banks and Auto Industry basically did it to themselves, the cruises and hotels did not start a virus and while yes they maybe need higher standards of cleanliness, travel bans and such arent really under their control.
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The Auto industry did this to themselves? I expected a response like this but not from you. Now the Banks? Sure.
 
kjironman1 said:
The Auto industry did this to themselves? I expected a response like this but not from you. Now the Banks? Sure.
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Well, they failed at capitalism, they failed to adapt, it's not as if the entire auto world wide auto-industry failed, it was mainly just large American ones. Did they fail on purpose,? No, but they did fail.

https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670

Qoute from the article.
Many experts accused the automakers of not operating competitively for years.33 The companies had delayed making alternative energy vehicles. Instead, they focused on reaping the profits from gas-guzzling SUVs and Hummers. When sales declined in 2006, they launched zero-percent financing plans to lure buyers. Union members were paid $65 per hour, on average, while new hires made $24 per hour.34 GM had twice as many brands as needed.35 It also had too many dealerships, forcing them to compete against each other.
 
kjironman1 said:
We never are but dropping more than 35% would be totally unprecedented in modern times. They will not let things crash like 1929. It's actually impossible the way things are set up now. After 1987 they applied stop losses and curbs to keep things in order. The high was 29,568 so you figure a 25% drop puts it at 22,176. Current is 23,185 but it has been much lower at 21,154 for a very short time. Lets say it drops 35%? 19,219. That would be absolute bottom in every look i am seeing.

Question- Why was it absolutely wrong to bail out the auto industry but now all the sudden we are ok with bailing out princess cruise lines and hotels?
Click to expand...
Ironman:
A) We haven't hit our recession yet which is coming;
B) This pandemic is not like anything we've seen since the flu pandemic of 1918-1919. It's gonna get a lot worse. Seems to me that this was one of the causes of the Great Depression.

I expect it to get worse than 19,219. I wish I could say how much worse 'cause then I could put in a lower limit triggered buy order and get rich. All I know is that it's gonna get a lot worse.

However, you can temper that with what my financial advisor told me yesterday, people are gonna start buying due to pent up demand and he says it's inevitable. But you can adjust that by the fact that it took a long time and a war to end the Great Depression.

It's really hard to find a formula that determines what the stock market will do or when it will do it else someone would be damn rich. You take the advice of more learned financial advisors and then adjust it to suit your gut feeling. The old rule of invest it and forget about it doesn't apply during volatile events such as the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. It does apply when averaged over extremely long periods of time. If you're young enough, invest it and forget about it until you retire. If you're like me and have one foot in the grave then watch it like a hawk or cash it in and spend it on booze and orgies. Right now, orgies are getting cheaper and cheaper (ask me how I know).
 
Lanny said:
A) We haven't hit our recession yet which is coming;
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First statement is wrong. Bear market is here. Recession is already happening. Stimulus packages and first wave of government spending has already been passed. Then your statement about the "Great depression" is completely out of touch. The monetary fund is a completely different animal now. However war could be another issue that would throw us into chaos.
Now as far as a Formula for the Stock market? Yes there is. It's P/E =S(M/D). These are basic Price and Earnings vs Stocks to Market divided by diversity. No i will not try to explain it here. Lots of people have opinions but these are the numbers they all use in the end.

Schools are closed
Job sites are shutting down.
Wages have already and will continue to be impacted.
My job has already been impacted.
Thousands just in the Portland area will not be going to work Monday.

If you think this is not recession then i don't know how to explain one to you.
The Markets will bounce up and down as the Fed continues to effect the way things are traded.
Stimulus packages will be passed out to places like Mar-A-Logo and Casinos or Cruise lines and even Airlines to avert further losses. However certain tech and medical stocks will stay strong. Look at the winners? Microsoft, Exxon, GE, Comcast is making a killing, Trading company stocks and Banks. This list is pretty large. Anything G5 is gonna make money because of diversity.

This will continue for 4-6 months.

I am the Supervisory Committee Chair for a Credit Union. Believe me when i tell you we are preparing to lend people money to get through this. If we are, Large Banks are as well. Don't fool yourself the recession is already here. But the ultra rich will only let the markets to fall at most 35-40%. A huge fall yes but not insurmountable by any means.

Stay home as much as possible is going to cost businesses money. You will not use as much gas or eat out as much. Probably will not be spending much time this year going to the beach and playing at Chinook Winds for example. I would suggest most will not have as much "disposable Income" as it is called. How about Home improvement projects? Yep you guessed it. Building supplies will probably be a big hit?

Here is another thing. the Job Market just changed. Unemployment figures will indeed rise. Then finding a job might be tough here in the next 6-12 months. The effects will linger but i'm betting you will be able to find a pretty good carpenter for a cash job this spring. But again this could prove to be fairly temporary. Lets all hope we get through this with better than worse case scenarios.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Well, they failed at capitalism, they failed to adapt, it's not as if the entire auto world wide auto-industry failed, it was mainly just large American ones. Did they fail on purpose,? No, but they did fail.

https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670

Qoute from the article.
Many experts accused the automakers of not operating competitively for years.33 The companies had delayed making alternative energy vehicles. Instead, they focused on reaping the profits from gas-guzzling SUVs and Hummers. When sales declined in 2006, they launched zero-percent financing plans to lure buyers. Union members were paid $65 per hour, on average, while new hires made $24 per hour.34 GM had twice as many brands as needed.35 It also had too many dealerships, forcing them to compete against each other.
Click to expand...
Again i didn't think i would get this response from you. But sure. Ronny Reagan and Lee Iococca could have been better for sure. Really doesn't have much to do with the bailout that was paid back in full with interest.
 
kjironman1 said:
Again i didn't think i would get this response from you. But sure. Ronny Reagan and Lee Iococca could have been better for sure. Really doesn't have much to do with the bailout that was paid back in full with interest.
Click to expand...
Im not angry or anything, I just believe that the leadership of the large US automakers made bad business decisions that attributed to their ‘failure’, maybe saying they ‘did it to themselves’ is harsh phrasing, I can understand that maybe I should have phrased that better.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Im not angry or anything, I just believe that the leadership of the large US automakers made bad business decisions that attributed to their ‘failure’, maybe saying they ‘did it to themselves’ is harsh phrasing, I can understand that maybe I should have phrased that better.
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The original statement should maybe have been phrased better also? I did make it in a combative way.

Better said???? I hope we give needed bailouts and that they are willing to pay back with interest the way the auto bailout was handled? I believe helping American Businesses right now is imperative.
 
kjironman1 said:
The original statement should maybe have been phrased better also? I did make it in a combative way.

Better said???? I hope we give needed bailouts and that they are willing to pay back with interest the way the auto bailout was handled? I believe helping American Businesses right now is imperative.
Click to expand...
I would have to think about it. Generally I am opposed to government bailouts. Obviously this is a somewhat unique situation... Some sectors will thrive, some may get snuffed out completely depending on how long it lasts.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
I would have to think about it. Generally I am opposed to government bailouts. Obviously this is a somewhat unique situation... Some sectors will thrive, some may get snuffed out completely depending on how long it lasts.
Click to expand...
I do agree. The bailouts if "Needed" in certain industries should be well vetted. Only because yes this is a unique situation. Some of this however might end up in the courts eventually. Blame on response time, Testing facilities and just overall effectiveness could prove to be significant. If a bailout for any certain sector is approved i would hope the bailout could be repaid again with interest.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Well, they failed at capitalism, they failed to adapt, it's not as if the entire auto world wide auto-industry failed, it was mainly just large American ones. Did they fail on purpose,? No, but they did fail.

https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670

Qoute from the article.
Many experts accused the automakers of not operating competitively for years.33 The companies had delayed making alternative energy vehicles. Instead, they focused on reaping the profits from gas-guzzling SUVs and Hummers. When sales declined in 2006, they launched zero-percent financing plans to lure buyers. Union members were paid $65 per hour, on average, while new hires made $24 per hour.34 GM had twice as many brands as needed.35 It also had too many dealerships, forcing them to compete against each other.
Click to expand...

This seems a bit contradictory. Focus on reaping profits is capitalism. Failure at long term planning is not a failure at capitalism, it is a failure of capitalism.

barfo
 
barfo said:
This seems a bit contradictory. Focus on reaping profits is capitalism. Failure at long term planning is not a failure at capitalism, it is a failure of capitalism.

barfo
Click to expand...
It's not, their focus on the profits from suv's and hummers, attributed to failing to adapt. Capitalism and short term focus are not synonymous. Plenty of capitalistic businesses have long term goals and plans.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
It's not, their focus on the profits from suv's and hummers, attributed to failing to adapt.
Click to expand...

Failure to adopt disruptive technologies because you are profiting off the existing technology is a very common issue. It's very hard to avoid.

Capitalism and short term focus are not synonymous.
Click to expand...

Maybe not, but they are certainly closely related.

Plenty of capitalistic businesses have long term goals and plans.
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Sure. But refusing to maximize profit from existing products in order to enable future products? Very very few do that.

barfo
 
barfo said:
This seems a bit contradictory. Focus on reaping profits is capitalism. Failure at long term planning is not a failure at capitalism, it is a failure of capitalism.

barfo
Click to expand...
Each business/Corp have the freedom to plan and execute, the lack of doing it at all or ineffectively is not a failure of capitalism, it's the failure of how the company is managed.
 
Markets brace for black Monday as Dow futures hit their 'limit' to stop panic after states started shutting down
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures plunged more than 1,000 points, triggering 'limit down' levels on Sunday
  • US stock futures also dropped 5% Sunday evening, hitting limit down levels, which means prices cannot trade any lower
  • The halts occur during non-US trading hours, before the 9:30am Eastern open of regular trading
  • Both limit down levels signaled investors were not assured by the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates to near zero on Sunday
  • The Fed took emergency action to lower interest rates to near zero over coronavirus concerns
  • The central bank said in a statement released on Sunday that it was cutting rates to a target range of 0 per cent to 0.25 per cent
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...limit-levels-Fed-slashes-rates-near-zero.html
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Gonna be brutal as whole industries are shut down.
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In the long run it will be better. Whole industries shut down every year for 2-3 weeks during the holidays. So they can and will handle this. Just like the holidays certain sectors slow way way down. Other sectors become very active. The same is happening right now.

Bottom line we must slow down certain areas to slow down the virus. We must continue to use and develop other areas that can make up some of the slack.
 
It's going to be sunny for the next week. Highs in the upper 50's to low 60's throughout the metro area. We can all "socially distance" without going stir crazy. Go for a walk/jog. Ride a bike. Hop on a scooter (if you can disinfect it first). Play outside with your kids.

A few weeks of not being around others isn't all that bad.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
It's going to be sunny for the next week. Highs in the upper 50's to low 60's throughout the metro area. We can all "socially distance" without going stir crazy. Go for a walk/jog. Ride a bike. Hop on a scooter (if you can disinfect it first). Play outside with your kids.

A few weeks of not being around others isn't all that bad.
Click to expand...
I did this over the weekend even though the weather was cold. I spent time with my dog and did some much needed work around the house. The yard by next week should be coming around nicely.
 
they are going to have to kick down something for the plebes. check to check types are gonna be robbing gas stations more than usual.
 
kjironman1 said:
First statement is wrong. Bear market is here. Recession is already happening. Stimulus packages and first wave of government spending has already been passed. Then your statement about the "Great depression" is completely out of touch. The monetary fund is a completely different animal now. However war could be another issue that would throw us into chaos.
Now as far as a Formula for the Stock market? Yes there is. It's P/E =S(M/D). These are basic Price and Earnings vs Stocks to Market divided by diversity. No i will not try to explain it here. Lots of people have opinions but these are the numbers they all use in the end.

Schools are closed
Job sites are shutting down.
Wages have already and will continue to be impacted.
My job has already been impacted.
Thousands just in the Portland area will not be going to work Monday.

If you think this is not recession then i don't know how to explain one to you.
The Markets will bounce up and down as the Fed continues to effect the way things are traded.
Stimulus packages will be passed out to places like Mar-A-Logo and Casinos or Cruise lines and even Airlines to avert further losses. However certain tech and medical stocks will stay strong. Look at the winners? Microsoft, Exxon, GE, Comcast is making a killing, Trading company stocks and Banks. This list is pretty large. Anything G5 is gonna make money because of diversity.

This will continue for 4-6 months.

I am the Supervisory Committee Chair for a Credit Union. Believe me when i tell you we are preparing to lend people money to get through this. If we are, Large Banks are as well. Don't fool yourself the recession is already here. But the ultra rich will only let the markets to fall at most 35-40%. A huge fall yes but not insurmountable by any means.

Stay home as much as possible is going to cost businesses money. You will not use as much gas or eat out as much. Probably will not be spending much time this year going to the beach and playing at Chinook Winds for example. I would suggest most will not have as much "disposable Income" as it is called. How about Home improvement projects? Yep you guessed it. Building supplies will probably be a big hit?

Here is another thing. the Job Market just changed. Unemployment figures will indeed rise. Then finding a job might be tough here in the next 6-12 months. The effects will linger but i'm betting you will be able to find a pretty good carpenter for a cash job this spring. But again this could prove to be fairly temporary. Lets all hope we get through this with better than worse case scenarios.
Click to expand...
Larry Summer does not think it's a recession yet, so I'm in good company and have the right to declare you wrong. You ain't seen nothin' yet.
Coupled with the recession are going to be tens of thousands more deaths than the handful we've experienced so far. That's when you're going to experience a deep recession. This that we're having now is just a tickle compared with the raking we're all going to take in the future.
 
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