Dow passes 10,000

[PapaG]

What prediction, and what makes you think I was trying to refute it, whatever it was? I was just answering your question about why the market was up.

barfo

Have you read this thread?

 

[barfo]

Have you read this thread?

Has anyone?

barfo

 

[PapaG]

Has anyone?

barfo

I sure hope not.

 

[jlprk]

It has more to do with risk-adjusted returns on cash and bonds than the strength of the equity asset class.

Explain?

 

[Denny Crane]

Explain?

The stock market is more risky than treasury bills, but the safest stock investments pay significantly more return than those treasuries. If not treasuries, then the interest rate you get on savings account deposits (near zero).

 

[jlprk]

Ahh, so the reason for the influx of money into stocks, causing the rise to 10,000, is not the strength of the stock market, but the weakness of alternative investments. How do you measure such strengths and weaknesses so that you can say that?

 

[barfo]

Ahh, so the reason for the influx of money into stocks, causing the rise to 10,000, is not the strength of the stock market, but the weakness of alternative investments. How do you measure such strengths and weaknesses so that you can say that?

It's pretty easy. Near zero interest rates imply poor returns. The stock market at least offers the possibility of higher returns.

barfo

 

[jlprk]

This implies that you have any money left over from the last go-round, when near-zero interest rates looked great compared to below-zero stock returns. Anyway, once stocks return, I'm pulling mine all out and putting it into a nice little apartment building, where I can support myself being a slumlord while watching my investment grow. Goodbye equity asset class, hello real estate asset class. When you use this term "asset class" it makes you sound important.

 

[barfo]

This implies that you have any money left over from the last go-round, when near-zero interest rates looked great compared to below-zero stock returns.

If near-zero interest rates looked great, wouldn't you have put your money into safe investments that paid near zero interest? Seems like that wouldn't be a principal-losing bet.

Anyway, once stocks return, I'm pulling mine all out and putting it into a nice little apartment building, where I can support myself being a slumlord while watching my investment grow. Goodbye equity asset class, hello real estate asset class. When you use this term "asset class" it makes you sound important.

I'll just note I wasn't the one who used that term, so I don't feel obligated to defend it.

barfo

 

[BlazerWookee]

Always seems odd to me when conservatives disown Dubya. The argument would be somewhat convincing that you were duped if you only voted for him once. But if conservatives vote TWICE for a guy who describes himself as a conservative, it's pretty tough to claim later on he wasn't a conservative.

You know...fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

What did you expect Conservatives to do, vote for John Kerry?

 

[e_blazer]

Hmmm. Looks like the market passed 10,000 again this morning. Opposite direction, of course, but it broke the mark again.

 

[blazerboy30]

Always seems odd to me when conservatives disown Dubya. The argument would be somewhat convincing that you were duped if you only voted for him once. But if conservatives vote TWICE for a guy who describes himself as a conservative, it's pretty tough to claim later on he wasn't a conservative.

You know...fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

This doesn't make much sense to me.

1) It is a good thing if people from either side can admit they don't like what their respective party is doing (disowning), instead of just blindly following along and defending them.

2) When Bush came around the second time, what was the other option if somebody was hoping for fiscal conservatism? It was the lesser of two evils, as usual.


PS. I didn't vote for Bush either time.

 

[Idog1976]

I've been hearing about how we're on the cusp of rampant inflation since, gosh, the dot com bubble burst?

Since the early 1980's, we've had massive budget and trade deficits, wars, booms, busts, liberal presidents, conservative presidents, 9/11...yet through 26 or so years inflation just hasn't budged much.

I'm not saying it ain't going to happen. But at some point you have to wonder.

Inflation has budged quite a bit. When you look at stocks in a stable currency such as gold you see there has been no growth in 15 years. Gold has gone from under $250 to $1060 the market's increase is illusionary. In 1913 $20 dollars got you an ounce of gold in 2009 $1060 dollars gets you an ounce of gold. Our currency has been devalued (inflated) by 90+% since then quite alot of it in the past 15 years. If you are using the CPI as a measure you might want to look at what's in the CPI (Playstations and flat screen TV's) if you look at houses, food, clothing etc.

You see that there definitely has been inflation, but really only a trickle compared to the increase in money supply. If it weren't for all the deleveraging of assets prices from the bubble years the inflation would be much worse. As it is no one will have any doubt about inflation within a few months. Remember the US is the world's reserve currency (for now) if this wasn't the case the fiscal insanity of the past 30 years would be much more apparent. As it is we have shipped most of our inflation abroad. Once the dollar oil connection is severed (coming soon!) there will be a Tsunami of dollars headed back to the the US. It will be flash inflation of a staggering level.

 

[barfo]

2) When Bush came around the second time, what was the other option if somebody was hoping for fiscal conservatism?

PS. I didn't vote for Bush either time.

I think you answered your own question there?

barfo

 

[mook]

I'd expect them to vote Bush in the general election, but also field a real conservative challenger in the primary. The fact that Dubya ran completely unchallenged in the 2004 primary speaks volumes to me about the contentment conservatives felt for Bush at that time.

 

[yakbladder]

Once the dollar oil connection is severed (coming soon!) there will be a Tsunami of dollars headed back to the the US. It will be flash inflation of a staggering level.

But the good news is if you survive the flash inflation your mortgage payment will be peanuts, chump change, wallet lint.

Don't forget as I seem to remember somewhere historically (Nixon?) this happening that the pres has authority to temporarily freeze prices. Or something to that effect. I'd actually have to look it up to get the rest of the info.

 

[maxiep]

I'd expect them to vote Bush in the general election, but also field a real conservative challenger in the primary. The fact that Dubya ran completely unchallenged in the 2004 primary speaks volumes to me about the contentment conservatives felt for Bush at that time.

That can be explained with the old saying, "Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line."

 

[PapaG]

The crash is coming soon.

Are you ready?

 

[TehChad]

I hope at least some of you saw this stock market crash as a HUGE opportunity. I invested a lot of money in a wide variety of stocks from March-May and my overall return is hovering around 70% right now with a few stocks exceeding 200%, thus tripling my investment. Granted I also have a few that have done virtually nothing (my worst one has gained only about 6% since I invested in March), but that's why you diversify. You don't have to be an economist to make some serious money with this...do some research, find some solid companies, buy low, sell high, diversify, and you'll make out like a bandit.

As for this crash in particular, I'm pretty sure the worst is behind us. We're still far from recovery, but things are coming around.

 

[PapaG]

I hope at least some of you saw this stock market crash as a HUGE opportunity. I invested a lot of money in a wide variety of stocks from March-May and my overall return is hovering around 70% right now with a few stocks exceeding 200%, thus tripling my investment. Granted I also have a few that have done virtually nothing (my worst one has gained only about 6% since I invested in March), but that's why you diversify. You don't have to be an economist to make some serious money with this...do some research, find some solid companies, buy low, sell high, diversify, and you'll make out like a bandit.

As for this crash in particular, I'm pretty sure the worst is behind us. We're still far from recovery, but things are coming around.

This run is because businesses are shedding payroll. Output is down while profits go up. This cannot sustain itself forever.

Seriously, if you've made money over the last six months, sell half ASAP.