Early BCS projections: Boise State #1, Oregon #2

[MickZagger]

As a Duck fan I honestly believe that if Oregon State was currently undefeated they would be the #1 ranked team in the nation, Ducks #2 and Ohio State would be #3.

But, they aren't. So thats pointless.

 

[tlongII]

VTech also lost to a 1-AA school. They aren't ranked, which isn't impressive. Not so sure that BSU would beat Stanford by 21 either. Look at margin of victory and opponents Oregon has beat. Its not even a question.

VaTech had 5 days after their loss to BSU before playing James Madison. They obviously had a letdown. Oregon beat Stanford by 21 at Oregon.

 

[tlongII]

So if the Ducks crush OSU, will they be better than BSU in your eyes?

So if the Beavs crush the Ducks will they be better than UofO in your eyes?

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

As a Duck fan I honestly believe that if Oregon State was currently undefeated they would be the #1 ranked team in the nation, Ducks #2 and Ohio State would be #3.

Without a doubt. If OSU was undefeated, that would have meant they beat BSU in Boise and TCU in Dallas as well. If that doesn't make a team #1, then I don't know what would.

 

[Wheels]

So if the Beavs crush the Ducks will they be better than UofO in your eyes?

first... that would be using head to head, not common opponents.

But also to tag along with your argument earlier... if the Beavs crush the Ducks they will have done so at Oregon State

 

[Natebishop3]

So if the Beavs crush the Ducks will they be better than UofO in your eyes?

What does that have to do with the argument? You are saying that BSU is better than UO because of SOS. You think that wins over OSU and VT are more impressive than Stanford or Tennessee. So my question was along those lines. If Oregon beats OSU as well, couple with their wins over Stanford and Tennessee, does that make them better than Boise State? Who gives a shit about the Beavers. They're not in the championship picture so they're not even relevant to this debate. Get back to me when you're relevant again.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Without a doubt. If OSU was undefeated, that would have meant they beat BSU in Boise and TCU in Dallas as well. If that doesn't make a team #1, then I don't know what would.

I disagree. The pollsters would use the Beavers wins against BSU and TCU and marginalize Oregon State's wins over them. BSU and TCU would barely be in the top 25 in that scenario, so Oregon State would still probably be languishing somewhere between #8 and #12.

That's why you can't win in games vs. Non "Big 6" teams. If you beat them, well, you were supposed to beat them because they suck. If you lose to them, well, they still aren't very good so you must be horrible.

 

[Natebishop3]

I disagree. The pollsters would use the Beavers wins against BSU and TCU and marginalize Oregon State's wins over them. BSU and TCU would barely be in the top 25 in that scenario, so Oregon State would still probably be languishing somewhere between #8 and #12.

That's why you can't win in games vs. Non "Big 6" teams. If you beat them, well, you were supposed to beat them because they suck. If you lose to them, well, they still aren't very good so you must be horrible.

Which makes you wonder they schools like Oregon or OSU would schedule games against them in the first place....

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I disagree. The pollsters would use the Beavers wins against BSU and TCU and marginalize Oregon State's wins over them. BSU and TCU would barely be in the top 25 in that scenario, so Oregon State would still probably be languishing somewhere between #8 and #12.

That's why you can't win in games vs. Non "Big 6" teams. If you beat them, well, you were supposed to beat them because they suck. If you lose to them, well, they still aren't very good so you must be horrible.

Good point. Hasn't happened so it is pretty worthless to try and figure out the "what if" scnearios. But I'd have to agree that BSU and TCU would have lose some of their top team stature had they lost to OSU.

That said, they've destroyed every team they've faced, and BSU would have beat a #10 V-Tech on the road going into that OSU game, so BSU and TCU would be hovering around 13th-18th in the standings with a loss given their other impressive wins.

Since OSU started top-25, beating a 13th-18th ranked BSU & TCU, along with Louisville would have likely got them launched up to the top 6-8 right out of the chute (remember BSU and TCU are no longer up there, so the only other teams above them are the big program undefeated teams). Then beating ASU and a top-10 Arizona would probably have them really getting noticed while teams like Florida, Stanford, then Bama were losing. So I'd probably say in hindsight going through it week-by-week, you're right, the BSU/TCU being discredited would likely have landed them only around #3 or #4 at this point. Good call.

 

[blazerboy30]

Who gives a shit about the Beavers.

You, being a ducks fan, should. You have to beat us, in Corvallis, to be relevant.

They're not in the championship picture so they're not even relevant to this debate. Get back to me when you're relevant again.

The ducks won't be relevant to the discussion if they can't beat "irrelevant OSU".

 

[Wheels]

fortunately we got past relevant Washington State then *phew*

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think the Ducks have shown me more when I look at dominating teams in second halves (which is really when it matters in CFB) but they don't have the W/L resume BSU has.

I disagree with this premise.

IMO, beating Stanford by 21 at home > beating Va Tech by 3 on the road (if for no other reason than the basic assumption that home field advantage is only worth 3 points).

ASU & OSU are about equal (as evidenced by the Beavs 3-point victory over the Devils in Corvallis), so it should follow that an 11 point victory @ ASU is approximately equivalent to a 13 point home victory over OSU. No advantage here either way.

After that, BSU's resume has 3 teams that are bottom-25 nationally; UO's does as well, but it also has the 35-point road-win over an SEC team. So, cumulatively, I would say that UO's schedule has been better than BSU's by virtue of the Tennessee game, and their overall performance has been better based on the nature of their victory over Stanford (dominance, as compared to BSU's nail-biter over VT).

 

[blazerboy30]

fortunately we got past relevant Washington State then *phew*

That's right. With only a few injuries to key players.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't think (going back a bit) that an undefeated Boise State or TCU would break through into top 2 territory if both Oregon and Ohio State are undefeated. Or if Alabama was still undefeated.

It's a fun talking point now, but the discussion comes in at the end of the year when you have multiple unbeaten teams, because anyone with a loss stands behind those with no losses. Alabama has basically lost its "playoff" and now has to wait for others to lose to win the national championship. Same if Oregon or Ohio State or Nebraska loses...I'm not the biggest fan of this "well, if they were in a real conference" garbage. Boise State and TCU are beating everyone on their schedule, including teams like Va Tech and OSU from the big conferences.

If you want to bitch about Boise State being unbeaten, then schedule them in Week Two, kick their ass and they're out of the picture. If you don't want to, stfu and play your schedule perfectly and you'll be above them. If you think it's unfair that your schedule's too tough, leave your conference, give up the 8 figures you get every year for having good bowl tie-ins, and go join the Sun Belt or go independent or something. (on a side note, Navy's been to 7 bowls in a row). But you don't get to get the money from being in a conference with tons of bowl tie-ins and sponsors and TV money coming in, while complaining that the teams are too hard, and get sympathy from me.

For every game against Florida or Oklahoma or Auburn or USC, the big schools also play Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Iowa State, WSU, etc.

 

[ppilot]

Could care less about the BCS rankings at this point. Bottom line is if Oregon Runs the table they are in the national championship. If not it's Rosebowl. It's actually pretty anti-climactic.

 

[Wheels]

That's right. With only a few injuries to key players.

I guess my retort then would be that OSU isnt relevant to to Oregon's being relevant until December 4th. Right now the only team that is relevant to my fanhood, and what Oregon needs to do, to get where it wants to go, is UCLA.

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I disagree with this premise.

IMO, beating Stanford by 21 at home > beating Va Tech by 3 on the road (if for no other reason than the basic assumption that home field advantage is only worth 3 points).

ASU & OSU are about equal (as evidenced by the Beavs 3-point victory over the Devils in Corvallis), so it should follow that an 11 point victory @ ASU is approximately equivalent to a 13 point home victory over OSU. No advantage here either way.

After that, BSU's resume has 3 teams that are bottom-25 nationally; UO's does as well, but it also has the 35-point road-win over an SEC team. So, cumulatively, I would say that UO's schedule has been better than BSU's by virtue of the Tennessee game, and their overall performance has been better based on the nature of their victory over Stanford (dominance, as compared to BSU's nail-biter over VT).

I wouldn't totally disagree with that. Remember I'm thinking in terms of the BCS standings, thus margin of victory can't be used. So I'm thinking in terms that BSU beat a top 25 team in both V-Tech and OSU and there isn't much denying that both of those teams while not top 10 are certainly in the realm of 10th-20th given what we've seen out of them (and had OSU not had two losses and got pushed down lower on paper).

While Oregon beat Stanford, again ranked #15 and that is probably about right. I think Stanford, V-Tech and OSU are all virtually around that same 10th-20th spot when the dust settles (albeit not on paper given they are still shuffling around a bit).

So I could see a situation where BSU given their body-of-work so far will be slightly ahead of UO for facing two decent top-25ish but not top-10ish programs while Oregon only faced one top-25ish program that isn't top-10ish.

As PPilot said though, it is obviously irrelevent as BSU doesn't have the SOS to maintain even the top 4 going forward. I guess I'm just trying to show the WHY I think the author of the article was probably correct in that Bosie State would likely be #1 if the BCS was published today, it is based on their bodies-of-work so far through today without being able to take into account margin of victory.

 

[Natebishop3]

You, being a ducks fan, should. You have to beat us, in Corvallis, to be relevant.



The ducks won't be relevant to the discussion if they can't beat "irrelevant OSU".

And that game is when? That's so far down the road it isn't even funny. That would be like talking about who the Ducks will be playing in the Championship game. There's no reason to start counting our chickens before they've hatched. We're talking about the current rankings, and the alleged BCS rankings that will have BSU above UO.

I swear, the Beavers fans hatred of UO is truly laughable. I don't know why you have to inject yourselves and your school into every Duck thread.

 

[TehChad]

...terrible. Who has Boise State beat?

 

[blazerboy30]

And that game is when? That's so far down the road it isn't even funny. That would be like talking about who the Ducks will be playing in the Championship game.

Yeah, it would be exactly like that except for one of them is guaranteed to happen and the other isn't. I'll let you guess which one is guaranteed.

There's no reason to start counting our chickens before they've hatched. We're talking about the current rankings, and the alleged BCS rankings that will have BSU above UO.

This is awesome. "There's no reason to start counting our chickens before they've hatched" in a thread titled "EARLY bcs PROJECTIONS". Classic.

I swear, the Beavers fans hatred of UO is truly laughable. I don't know why you have to inject yourselves and your school into every Duck thread.

If I did sigs on this board, that would be sig worthy just because of the amount of irony involved.

It is like Laker fans calling other teams' fans bandwagon fans.

 

[Natebishop3]

Yeah, it would be exactly like that except for one of them is guaranteed to happen and the other isn't. I'll let you guess which one is guaranteed.


This is awesome. "There's no reason to start counting our chickens before they've hatched" in a thread titled "EARLY bcs PROJECTIONS". Classic.



If I did sigs on this board, that would be sig worthy just because of the amount of irony involved.

It is like Laker fans calling other teams' fans bandwagon fans.

Except it's true. There's always a bitter Beav fan in a thread about the Ducks. I didn't pay attention though. You're clearly not a Beavs fan. How did you feel about the Ducks coming back from such a large margin and destroying your team in the second half? That must have SUCKED.

 

[Wheels]

It is like Laker fans calling other teams' fans bandwagon fans.

I do have to add on to Natebishops part on that.. very many threads that are about Ducks have something where a Beaver fan has to mention something. I think I made a thread a while back about Darron Thomas which in no way had anything to do with the Beavers, pro or against. And A reply was made with a pic of Katz (sp?) saying something along the lines of "we have a good QB too" or something to that extent. Like I have said many times before, I respect the hell out of Riley and the OSU program, but a large portion of the Internet fans of OSU at least have a big time "little brother" "look at me, notice me" syndrome. Not saying that as a negative of the program, or entire fan base though.

 

[Wheels]

Except it's true. There's always a bitter Beav fan in a thread about the Ducks. I didn't pay attention though. You're clearly not a Beavs fan. How did you feel about the Ducks coming back from such a large margin and destroying your team in the second half? That must have SUCKED.

I believe he is a Beavs fan and Alumni if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Natebishop3]

I do have to add on to Natebishops part on that.. very many threads that are about Ducks have something where a Beaver fan has to mention something. I think I made a thread a while back about Darron Thomas which in no way had anything to do with the Beavers, pro or against. And A reply was made with a pic of Katz (sp?) saying something along the lines of "we have a good QB too" or something to that extent. Like I have said many times before, I respect the hell out of Riley and the OSU program, but a large portion of the Internet fans of OSU at least have a big time "little brother" "look at me, notice me" syndrome. Not saying that as a negative of the program, or entire fan base though.

You know whats worse? I have no problem rooting for OSU when they're playing other teams, but a lot of Beaver fans will never root for the Ducks, regardless.

 

[MickZagger]

You know whats worse? I have no problem rooting for OSU when they're playing other teams, but a lot of Beaver fans will never root for the Ducks, regardless.

lol I know it kinda funny. Dawgs fans are the same way. If the Ducks made it to the title game, Dawg fan would root against.

 

[Natebishop3]

lol I know it kinda funny. Dawgs fans are the same way. If the Ducks made it to the title game, Dawg fan would root against.

I could never root for Rick Neuheisel, but now that he's gone, I don't really have any ill will towards UW.

 

[MickZagger]

I could never root for Rick Neuheisel, but now that he's gone, I don't really have any ill will towards UW.

I do. Just because their fans live in the past and can't get over the fact that they haven't been relevant in 10 years. Other than that, I actually like Sark and Locker.

 

[Paxil]

...terrible. Who has Boise State beat?

The BCS isn't about winning... it is about not losing...

From:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/10/12/death-to-the-bcs-a-eulogy/?xid=cnnbin&hpt=Sbin

 

[blazerboy30]

I do have to add on to Natebishops part on that.. very many threads that are about Ducks have something where a Beaver fan has to mention something. I think I made a thread a while back about Darron Thomas which in no way had anything to do with the Beavers, pro or against. And A reply was made with a pic of Katz (sp?) saying something along the lines of "we have a good QB too" or something to that extent. Like I have said many times before, I respect the hell out of Riley and the OSU program, but a large portion of the Internet fans of OSU at least have a big time "little brother" "look at me, notice me" syndrome. Not saying that as a negative of the program, or entire fan base though.

You REALLY think this is only true of OSU fans and not UO fans? Might want to pull your head out.

Anyway, I almost always root for the Ducks when they aren't playing the Beavs. I was actually not even sure who I was pulling for between the Ducks and Stanford.

 

[Wheels]

You REALLY think this is only true of OSU fans and not UO fans? Might want to pull your head out.

Anyway, I almost always root for the Ducks when they aren't playing the Beavs. I was actually not even sure who I was pulling for between the Ducks and Stanford.

I base what I think with my interaction with Beaver fans... or with the Ducks and Beaver threads I see on here, I would say that the majority of ones that are "Hijacked" would be Beaver stuff injected into Ducks threads.

I'm not saying that you are one of these, and that both fanbases are perfect. But I would say that OSU fan has as much of a little brother syndrome as Duck fan has an elitist syndrome (both are extremely annoying btw)