Early Bust Determination

[GrandpaBlaze]

Interesting article about a way to determine if a pick is a bust early in their first season (I.e., 10 games or so)

Both Vonleh and Zach Collins mentioned.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/11/15/16654232/how-to-identify-an-nba-draft-bust-markelle-fultz

 

[Sarni]

I think it's way too early to call Zach Collins a bust but it's a worry that Stotts doesn't trust him at all. He's so far behind everyone else in pecking order and it's not like his competition is extremely strong.

Vonleh I think it's fair to say has been underwhelming for a no. 9 overall pick. He still has some upside but he won't be much better than he is.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

So the best of the worst on their list (Tyrus Thomas) had a 0.5 game score for his first 10 games.

Jamal Crawford (8th pick in his draft) had a 0.6. Still a horrible score yet turned out to be nothing close to a bust imo.

So, as with any stat, I am not sure this one can predict bust status on it's own.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Interesting. I didn't read the whole thing. I wonder where Jermaine ONeil fell in that matrix?

 

[Trackjack]

To early on Zach and Vonleh I little disagree with him too. Vonleh might not score much is due to who he plays with but he does rebounds and pretty good on D. Not Collins he just behind a lot of players to get a enough minutes to even score him as bust or not.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Interesting. I didn't read the whole thing. I wonder where Jermaine ONeil fell in that matrix?

2.8 game score. As an example, the best that year for a rookie was AI with 15.8 A notable name with a game score worse than Jermaine O'Neal in his first 10 games is Steve Nash with a 2.4. Ben Wallace was even worse with an 0.7 (but we know he was not a high pick and a late bloomer).

 

[Mediocre Man]

To early on Zach and Vonleh I little disagree with him too. Vonleh might not score much is due to who he plays with but he does rebounds and pretty good on D. Not Collins he just behind a lot of players to get a enough minutes to even score him as bust or not.

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

 

[Mediocre Man]

2.8 game score. As an example, the best that year for a rookie was AI with 15.8 A notable name with a game score worse than Jermaine O'Neal in his first 10 games is Steve Nash with a 2.4. Ben Wallace was even worse with an 0.7 (but we know he was not a high pick and a late bloomer).

So is 2.8 bust level?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Interesting. I didn't read the whole thing. I wonder where Jermaine ONeil fell in that matrix?

What about this stiff?
He took over 19 shots/game in his 1st 10, shooting 34.5 FG%, and his team was 2-10. He had a negative +/- in every game except for one in which he was +2, and that game was a loss. What a total scrub. I think he should sign with the Blazers for vet. min. - we'd be doing him a favor.

I don't know what his win shares are for those 10 games, but if it isn't horrible, then win shares must be simply bad.

 

[dviss1]

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

Damn... Chill... Why you need to cuss him out like that.. Jesus...

 

[Mediocre Man]

Damn... Chill... Why you need to cuss him out like that.. Jesus...

I didn't cuss him out. I swore in my response. Right now we are average at best, and have a top 10 draft pick at a position of weekness for us. If he could play, he would.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

So is 2.8 bust level?

I would say no. But close.

 

[Jade Falcon]

I think it's way too early to call Zach Collins a bust but it's a worry that Stotts doesn't trust him at all. He's so far behind everyone else in pecking order and it's not like his competition is extremely strong.

Vonleh I think it's fair to say has been underwhelming for a no. 9 overall pick. He still has some upside but he won't be much better than he is.

RIGHT NOW, I don't think Collins is a bust. However, I don't agree with where he was drafted. Biggie and him should have been switched. I actually had Biggie going at the #17 pick, but I would have been comfortable picking him at #10, if nobody else better was there.

Collins was NOT a #10 pick. A Freshman out of College? I don't think so.

He's got excellent footwork though, so I'm not willing to call him a bust yet. Let's see where he's at in 2 years.

 

[dviss1]

I didn't cuss him out. I swore in my response. Right now we are average at best, and have a top 10 draft pick at a position of weekness for us. If he could play, he would.

Swearing in your response and then taking him to task is just that. Cussing him out. Just because you didn't call him a name doesn't mean you didn't. You chastised him for an opinion and went overboard IMO.

 

[Blazer Freak]

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

This forum truly makes it harder and harder to be a Blazer fan. I love them and have been watching since I was a kid, but coming here and seeing grown men throw hissy fits over Stotts and a rookie not even 15 games in is pretty sad.

For the most part, the Blazers under this regime have ALWAYS brought their young players along slowly. CJ, Crabbe, Pat, Meyers, and now Collins. We have some of the best player development people in the NBA with our franchise and if you guys would settle down and take a breath you'd realize that the Blazers often times work with their young guys in the background their first and second years to prepare them for their opportunities. Look at how CJ developed. He was hurt and played only 38 games his rookie year and by the end of his second year he had played behind NBA players, grew accustomed to the NBA life and exploded in the playoffs and broke out his 3rd year.

Zach Collins is 19 years old. What were you doing at that age MM? The dude oozes potential and IMO will be a big part of the foundation of this franchise in 1-2 years.

You guys need to grow the fuck up and stop throwing hissy fits after every game.

 

[SportsAndWhine]

Interesting. I didn't read the whole thing. I wonder where Jermaine ONeil fell in that matrix?

Or CJ for that matter.

 

[TBpup]

Dolly Parton in junior high school.

One name not on that list...Kyle Kuzma.

 

[calvin natt]

Swearing in your response and then taking him to task is just that. Cussing him out. Just because you didn't call him a name doesn't mean you didn't. You chastised him for an opinion and went overboard IMO.

hahaha

 

[e_blazer]

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

The only excuse anyone needs to make for Zach is 19 years old, only one year of college experience and never as a starter, and missed most of summer league due to injury.

Anyone who expected Zach to get significant run this year was delusional. As for making some sort of prognostication based on his current "body of work", just revisit the CJ is a bust thread from a couple of years ago. Stotts is consistent about playing vets over rookies. Once Chief is back, I expect to see Biggie take a seat again too.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Dolly Parton in junior high school.

One name not on that list...Kyle Kuzma.

Like, one time at band camp, this girl always wore monoboob sports bras and everyone thought she was flat-chested then we went swimming and KAZONGAS so now I never judge busts prematurely which is the only thing I don't do prematurely.

 

[riverman]

If Nate were still coaching the rookies wouldn't sniff the court for 3 years

 

[riverman]

Like, one time at band camp, this girl always wore monoboob sports bras and everyone thought she was flat-chested then we went swimming and KAZONGAS so now I never judge busts prematurely which is the only thing I don't do prematurely.

close the thread, we have a winner!

 

[e_blazer]

Like, one time at band camp, this girl always wore monoboob sports bras and everyone thought she was flat-chested then we went swimming and KAZONGAS so now I never judge busts prematurely which is the only thing I don't do prematurely.

A little TMI there at the end, Homer.

 

[Trackjack]

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

It not excuse for this kid I am not throwing him under the bus either like you are. Yea Swanigan getting some playing time and I am happy for him but when aminu comes back he properly will be sitting right along side Collins. This not saying he bad but there a pecking order behind veterans players. Now Collins is more a center that can move to play the 4 sometimes. But he is behind Nurk and Davis so if that makes him a bust in eyes then he is bust in your opinion. But there a lot people on this forum properly will disagree with you.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Like, one time at band camp, this girl always wore monoboob sports bras and everyone thought she was flat-chested then we went swimming and KAZONGAS so now I never judge busts prematurely which is the only thing I don't do prematurely.

pics or it didn't happen

 

[julius]

Well, if the player hasn't shown much after 13 NBA games have been played (ignoring the fact they haven't played in every game of said 13 games) then it's beyond a reasonable doubt that we found a new way for people to bitch about the same thing again.

 

[BigGameDamian]

To early on Zach and Vonleh I little disagree with him too. Vonleh might not score much is due to who he plays with but he does rebounds and pretty good on D. Not Collins he just behind a lot of players to get a enough minutes to even score him as bust or not.

That's the story of the Blazers though. To early to call that guy a bust, What if that guy breaks out, Oh this guys on a good contact. What if, What if, What if. That's why the Blazers are always keeping shitty to mediocre players around year after year. Seems like ever year we have high expectations only to find out we're a middle of the road team that gets bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

 

[THE HCP]

Didn’t read any of this.....my opinion is you have to give a kid a couple years. Each situation is different of course, but there is no formula to decide this. Team roster, playing time, coaching style, opportunities all play in this.
We all know the Jermaine O’neal story. How about Chauncey Billups or Kyle Lowry......they floated around the league til they landed in the perfect spot for them. I’m quite sure some thought Petro was a bust til he got his chance in Jersey.
Have to go back and look, but I’m sure people on here were down on CJ til Wes went down. I’ve heard on good authority that CJ was taking it to Wes in practice, had him looking over his shoulder on the daily.

Their are way SO many factors involved in making a player a success or failure , but I think the biggest is time.

 

[riverman]

To early to call that guy a bust, What if that guy breaks out, Oh this guys on a good contact

see Jermaine O'Neil

 

[riverman]

Didn’t read any of this.....my opinion is you have to give a kid a couple years. Each situation is different of course, but there is no formula to decide this. Team roster, playing time, coaching style, opportunities all play in this.
We all know the Jermaine O’neal story. How about Chauncey Billups or Kyle Lowry......they floated around the league til they landed in the perfect spot for them. I’m quite sure some thought Petro was a bust til he got his chance in Jersey.
Have to go back and look, but I’m sure people on here were down on CJ til Wes went down. I’ve heard on good authority that CJ was taking it to Wes in practice, had him looking over his shoulder on the daily.

Their are way SO many factors involved in making a player a success or failure , but I think the biggest is time.

you beat me to it.....