Early Bust Determination

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julius said:
Well, if the player hasn't shown much after 13 NBA games have been played (ignoring the fact they haven't played in every game of said 13 games) then it's beyond a reasonable doubt that we found a new way for people to bitch about the same thing again.
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It's fairly reasonable to assume a top 10 pick will play. That's my guess on the matrix of the whole thing anyway
 
HCP said:
Didn’t read any of this.....my opinion is you have to give a kid a couple years. Each situation is different of course, but there is no formula to decide this. Team roster, playing time, coaching style, opportunities all play in this.

Their are way SO many factors involved in making a player a success or failure , but I think the biggest is time.
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Says the guy who harrasses the rookie members of the forum.
 
As far as Collins goes, he’s just so damn young. Give him some time. This is the problem with this place and most members on here. They had this kid on a path to the Hall after a couple summer league games. Fans set the standards SO high on rookies and our team in general, they freak out and everybody or the season is a bust if things don’t go as dreamed. Collins is performing EXACTLY as I thought he would. So in my mind, he isn’t a bust at all. Now after a few seasons, if he didn’t pan out, I’d be let down that we spent a lottery pick on him.
Shoot even Luke Babbitt is contributing in this league.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Did he not play as a rookie?
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very little for a number 5 pick......everyone on our bench has seen the court..Stotts gave him plenty of opportunity..he couldn't stay on the court...couldn't learn the playbook at all but that's on him....not the coach
 
riverman said:
very little for a number 5 pick......everyone on our bench has seen the court..Stotts gave him plenty of opportunity..he couldn't stay on the court...couldn't learn the playbook at all but that's on him....not the coach
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Agreed.
 
Trackjack said:
To early on Zach and Vonleh I little disagree with him too. Vonleh might not score much is due to who he plays with but he does rebounds and pretty good on D. Not Collins he just behind a lot of players to get a enough minutes to even score him as bust or not.
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Collins isn't exactly playing behind All Stars. If he was an average NBA player, he'd be starting.
 
dviss1 said:
Swearing in your response and then taking him to task is just that. Cussing him out. Just because you didn't call him a name doesn't mean you didn't. You chastised him for an opinion and went overboard IMO.
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I don't know who you are talking to but I'm glad I have him/her blocked. Sounds like a waste of time.
 
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KingSpeed said:
Collins isn't exactly playing behind All Stars. If he was an average NBA player, he'd be starting.
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Exactly. Zach isn't better than the players who are playing ahead of him. He isn't an average NBA player.

Yet.

He's 19. A rookie. One year of college. Didn't even start on his college team. Was injured in Summer League. Anyone who expects Zach to start right now on an NBA basketball team is setting themselves up for disappointment. I doubt anyone does.

The question of whether he therefore should not have been the No. 10 pick is a different question. To some, it's crazy/stupid to "waste" a No. 10 pick on a guy who won't start right away. To others, if he has the potential to be worthy of the pick in a year or two, they are fine with the pick. I don't see any player we could have had instead who would have propelled us into the finals this season. I'm fine with the pick.

To each their own.

:cheers:
 
BBert said:
Exactly. Zach isn't better than the players who are playing ahead of him. He isn't an average NBA player.

Yet.

He's 19. A rookie. One year of college. Didn't even start on his college team. Was injured in Summer League. Anyone who expects Zach to start right now on an NBA basketball team is setting themselves up for disappointment. I doubt anyone does.

The question of whether he therefore should not have been the No. 10 pick is a different question. To some, it's crazy/stupid to "waste" a No. 10 pick on a guy who won't start right away. To others, if he has the potential to be worthy of the pick in a year or two, they are fine with the pick. I don't see any player we could have had instead who would have propelled us into the finals this season. I'm fine with the pick.

To each their own.

:cheers:
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Many people here were calling on ZC to start from the get go or at least earn it by mid season.
 
HCP said:
As far as Collins goes, he’s just so damn young. Give him some time. This is the problem with this place and most members on here. They had this kid on a path to the Hall after a couple summer league games. Fans set the standards SO high on rookies and our team in general, they freak out and everybody or the season is a bust if things don’t go as dreamed. Collins is performing EXACTLY as I thought he would. So in my mind, he isn’t a bust at all. Now after a few seasons, if he didn’t pan out, I’d be let down that we spent a lottery pick on him.
Shoot even Luke Babbitt is contributing in this league.
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And by the end of his rookie contract well probably resign him to a reasonable contract so we can develop him more. Saying what if.....
 
KingSpeed said:
Many people here were calling on ZC to start from the get go or at least earn it by mid season.
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People need to relax. The kid is 19 and riding the bench behind older, more experienced NBA players. His best position is center, and we have Nurk and Ed Davis manning that position. Less than a week ago, people were calling for Stotts to be fired because he wasn't playing a Nurk enough minutes. Yet, somehow he's supposed to also be starting Zach Collins.

A little perspective people. Collins is 19. Rudy Gobert, as a 21-year old rookie only played in 45 games, racking up scores of DNP-CDs and only averaged 9.6 MPG in the 45 games he actually got off the bench. He was two years older than Collins with lots of international experience, but was buried on the bench of a 25-win UTA team. But look at Gobert now. I don't think there is a single poster on this board that wouldn't love to have him on our team.

So, can we at least wait more than 13 games into his rookie year before we label Zach Collins a bust? He's not playing because he's young, not ready and has older, more experienced players ahead of him. Same as Jermaine O'Neal and Rudy Gobert. There are no guarantees. He may very well turn out to be a bust. He could also turn out to be an average NBA starter, or he could develop into something special. It's way too early to say for sure.

BNM
 
Zach will become an all star after we trade him to the Pacers for a more experienced player.
 
KingSpeed said:
Many people here were calling on ZC to start from the get go or at least earn it by mid season.
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I think you are right some did. I hope they still aren't, LOL.

:cheers:
 
There is a very clear lack of understanding in this forum about how to use statistical models like this. They aren't claiming to predict every player with 100% accuracy. But it is suggesting that the probabilities are working against us and Zach given past data.

I am curious how the model would change if age and / or minutes played in college was taken into account.
 
Boob-No-More said:
People need to relax. The kid is 19 and riding the bench behind older, more experienced NBA players. His best position is center, and we have Nurk and Ed Davis manning that position. Less than a week ago, people were calling for Stotts to be fired because he wasn't playing a Nurk enough minutes. Yet, somehow he's supposed to also be starting Zach Collins.

A little perspective people. Collins is 19. Rudy Gobert, as a 21-year old rookie only played in 45 games, racking up scores of DNP-CDs and only averaged 9.6 MPG in the 45 games he actually got off the bench. He was two years older than Collins with lots of international experience, but was buried on the bench of a 25-win UTA team. But look at Gobert now. I don't think there is a single poster on this board that wouldn't love to have him on our team.

So, can we at least wait more than 13 games into his rookie year before we label Zach Collins a bust? He's not playing because he's young, not ready and has older, more experienced players ahead of him. Same as Jermaine O'Neal and Rudy Gobert. There are no guarantees. He may very well turn out to be a bust. He could also turn out to be an average NBA starter, or he could develop into something special. It's way too early to say for sure.

BNM
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This is certainly true, and well put.

However, I think there's another factor as well, which is why a previous post looked at Kevin Durant's extremely poor numbers during his first 10 games.

Neither was ready physically to enter the NBA. Durant didn't receive in strength training in college and couldn't bench 185 (?) even once during the combine. Because of this Seattle decided to use him at SG, which was obviously his wrong position.

Zach is a highly skilled, 2-way player right now. Nurk and arguably Turner are the only other ones on the whole team. The main problem isn't skill, or even experience, it's that he's getting pushed around every play because he's physically weak. Anyone who watched the first couple of summer league games noticed that he even got bullied there. Supposedly he's eating a ton, which when combined with resistance training will make him stronger. Physically, he's a 19 yo, and it's showing, he'll fill out. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.

I do find the linked article interesting in the aggregate, but I don't think you can apply it to individual players without considering the specifics of the individual involved.
 
blazerboy30 said:
There is a very clear lack of understanding in this forum about how to use statistical models like this. They aren't claiming to predict every player with 100% accuracy. But it is suggesting that the probabilities are working against us and Zach given past data.

I am curious how the model would change if age and / or minutes played in college was taken into account.
Click to expand...

I didn't read the article/link, did it base their findings on everyone after playing 4 games?
 
I don't really expect Collins to be starting or getting 20 minutes per game in his rookie season. It does worry me that he doesn't play at all and Stotts prefers basically everyone else. He should be getting at least some minutes, I cannot think of that many examples of players from recent drafts who would be drafted very high and not play at all.

It's still very early into season though.
 
dviss1 said:
Swearing in your response and then taking him to task is just that. Cussing him out. Just because you didn't call him a name doesn't mean you didn't. You chastised him for an opinion and went overboard IMO.
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Maybe it's in the way you read it.
Change the inflection of voice in your head. Put it in a different tone and it simply "Stop making excuses" and "Fucking better than our 10th pick...."
Not STOP MAKING EXCUSES and FUCKING BETTER THAN OUR 10TH PICK!!!!!!
You might want to get into a relaxed position to read? :happy:
 
Collins will get minutes after we make a trade involving at least one of Davis/Aminu/Vonleh. I will be shocked if at least one of them isn't traded by the deadline. I think the plan is to play that trio to build trade value, and/or see if we think Vonleh is worth holding on to.
 
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