Early Bust Determination

[Blazinaway]

Well, if the player hasn't shown much after 13 NBA games have been played (ignoring the fact they haven't played in every game of said 13 games) then it's beyond a reasonable doubt that we found a new way for people to bitch about the same thing again.

LOL, this is what this forum excels at!

 

[Blazinaway]

It's fairly reasonable to assume a top 10 pick will play. That's my guess on the matrix of the whole thing anyway

In some cases I would agree, however Zach was drafted IMO as a project given that he played backup in college and is still 19. Now you can certainly say we should not have made that choice to draft a "project" who our GM thought had good upside but would take time. Frankly IMO its unfair to label him a bust at this time, however one IMO can certainly take issue with drafting him at all and trading up to do so.

 

[Chris Craig]

13 games in come on. Collins has barely played and probably won't under Stotts unless injurys happen. Biggie has shown alot in the small amount of time he has played. I wouldn't call Vonleh a bust either just a late bloomer.

 

[kjironman1]

Collins will get minutes after we make a trade involving at least one of Davis/Aminu/Vonleh. I will be shocked if at least one of them isn't traded by the deadline. I think the plan is to play that trio to build trade value, and/or see if we think Vonleh is worth holding on to.

I can see this.... BUT! What happens if Davis/Aminu/Vonleh as the Blazers starting PF, backup PF and backup Center have this team in the 4th or 5th seed and playing .600 ball. 30-20 with 32 games left? Looking at 48-50 wins? Do you really bust that team up?

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Wow, I didn't post the reference to say Zach or Vonleh were busts, but that this was an indicator of potential busts.

I agree that Vonleh is not a bust but neither is he really worthy of his place in the draft.

Collins I think is far too early to tell especially with him being hurt in the pre-season. He is young. How high his potential, I don't know but remain hopeful.

Gramps...

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I hate how we always say Zach isn't ready... a lot of the PF rookies have shown at least flashes of being a good nba player. We have really yet to see him do anything noteworthy in an actual nba game. That's not a great sign.

 

[riverman]

 

[dviss1]

Maybe it's in the way you read it.
Change the inflection of voice in your head. Put it in a different tone and it simply "Stop making excuses" and "Fucking better than our 10th pick...."
Not STOP MAKING EXCUSES and FUCKING BETTER THAN OUR 10TH PICK!!!!!!
You might want to get into a relaxed position to read?

But it's MM tho...

 

[kjironman1]

But it's MM tho...

Okay. I understand.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Zach is going to be a player.

If we give him Meyers-like time to develop he'll be ready in 2 years instead of not ready in 5.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Appropos of Markelle Fultz: I wonder if they'll regret not taking Donovan Mitchell. They could've traded DOWN to do that. He's likely a better defender and may end up being better on offense. Fultz is probably a better PG, but they don't need Fultz for that.

 

[blazerboy30]

I didn't read the article/link, did it base their findings on everyone after playing 4 games?

So you criticized the article and method without reading it?

To answer your question, it wasn't based on the first four games but on the first 10 games.

The correlation isn't perfect but decent enough to be discussed.

 

[blazerboy30]

I do find the linked article interesting in the aggregate, but I don't think you can apply it to individual players without considering the specifics of the individual involved.

Right. It's a single variable linear regression model. It's just suggesting probabilities not individual predictions with high accuracy.

It would be interesting if the author expanded the model to include another feature such as age or college minutes played.

 

[BonesJones]

If Collins was better as our fucking 10th pick we traded up to get, he'd play in front of our 26th pick.

Stop making excuses.

You do realize there's a difference in prospects being "NBA Ready" and "High Potential", right? You're not that ignorant, you're just posting an ignorant post because Zach Collins is white.

 

[BonesJones]

Using Fultz in this article is stupid as hell. Give Steph Curry a bum shoulder than takes away his jumpshot and see how good he is... Curry would be just as bad as Fultz if he couldn't shoot. Fultz' game is opened up by his deadly pull-up jumpshot and spot up 3pt shot.

So he's not himself at all, so the data isn't reflective of him as a player. However, this article tries to use it as if it is, and as if it shows signs that he's a bust.

People calling Fultz a bust are extremely dumb. Wait till his shoulder gets healthy, and he plays like himself. If he struggles then, then there might be a case.

 

[BonesJones]

This forum truly makes it harder and harder to be a Blazer fan. I love them and have been watching since I was a kid, but coming here and seeing grown men throw hissy fits over Stotts and a rookie not even 15 games in is pretty sad.

For the most part, the Blazers under this regime have ALWAYS brought their young players along slowly. CJ, Crabbe, Pat, Meyers, and now Collins. We have some of the best player development people in the NBA with our franchise and if you guys would settle down and take a breath you'd realize that the Blazers often times work with their young guys in the background their first and second years to prepare them for their opportunities. Look at how CJ developed. He was hurt and played only 38 games his rookie year and by the end of his second year he had played behind NBA players, grew accustomed to the NBA life and exploded in the playoffs and broke out his 3rd year.

Zach Collins is 19 years old. What were you doing at that age MM? The dude oozes potential and IMO will be a big part of the foundation of this franchise in 1-2 years.

You guys need to grow the fuck up and stop throwing hissy fits after every game.

My man, don't think that people like me, who have been complaining about the flaws of Stotts for years, are only basing the first 13 games of the season in our arguments to fire him. This is where those who want Stotts gone compared to those who think Collins is a bust are different. Those who want Stotts gone are basing it off a large body of work, while those who think Collins is a bust are basing it off of less than 30min of play when the kid is 19.

 

[BonesJones]

Many people here were calling on ZC to start from the get go or at least earn it by mid season.

I think he is talented enough to if he puts on weight. Whether he puts on weight fast enough remains to be seen.

 

[BonesJones]

As far as Collins goes, he’s just so damn young. Give him some time. This is the problem with this place and most members on here. They had this kid on a path to the Hall after a couple summer league games. Fans set the standards SO high on rookies and our team in general, they freak out and everybody or the season is a bust if things don’t go as dreamed. Collins is performing EXACTLY as I thought he would. So in my mind, he isn’t a bust at all. Now after a few seasons, if he didn’t pan out, I’d be let down that we spent a lottery pick on him.
Shoot even Luke Babbitt is contributing in this league.

Exactly. The dude needs strength.

He has great footwork in the low-post, he just gets knocked off his spots and can't throw his weight around to get good shots. He also has a quick solid face-up game, but gets knocked off-balance when he drives because of a lack of strength.

Defensively, he's a great help-side defender and has a great feel, but suffers in low-post defense only, and it's due to a lack of strength.

And the boards, he gets bumped off the ball a little too much due to a lack of strength.

Adding strength fixes all of those problems. Once he adds strength and gets a better feel for the game, he'll be a very good player.

BUT THE IGNORANT OPINION IS... "He's barely played 13 games in, and he was a #10 pick. And he's white, like Meyers. Therefore, he's a bust." These people aren't actually looking at what he is as a player, or that he's 19 years old. How many people declaring him as a bust are basing it off his skills? They're not. They see one or two bad plays in garbage time where Collins isn't playing his best role because he's trying to post up despite his lack of strength. He'll make a good move with good footwork that would be extremely effective if he had the proper strength.

Quit calling this kid a bust. It's not based on any relevant skill that he doesn't have. He adds strength, gets a good feel, and he'll be good.

 

[Strenuus]

Exactly. The dude needs strength.

He has great footwork in the low-post, he just gets knocked off his spots and can't throw his weight around to get good shots. He also has a quick solid face-up game, but gets knocked off-balance when he drives because of a lack of strength.

Defensively, he's a great help-side defender and has a great feel, but suffers in low-post defense only, and it's due to a lack of strength.

And the boards, he gets bumped off the ball a little too much due to a lack of strength.

Adding strength fixes all of those problems. Once he adds strength and gets a better feel for the game, he'll be a very good player.

BUT THE IGNORANT OPINION IS... "He's barely played 13 games in, and he was a #10 pick. And he's white, like Meyers. Therefore, he's a bust." These people aren't actually looking at what he is as a player, or that he's 19 years old. How many people declaring him as a bust are basing it off his skills? They're not. They see one or two bad plays in garbage time where Collins isn't playing his best role because he's trying to post up despite his lack of strength. He'll make a good move with good footwork that would be extremely effective if he had the proper strength.

Quit calling this kid a bust. It's not based on any relevant skill that he doesn't have. He adds strength, gets a good feel, and he'll be good.

Youre funny when you get worked up. I laugh way too hard at it. I'm sorry.

I know, I know, you'll say you're not worked up. But it's still funny regardless.

 

[Mediocre Man]

You do realize there's a difference in prospects being "NBA Ready" and "High Potential", right? You're not that ignorant, you're just posting an ignorant post because Zach Collins is white.

No, I'm responding to someone saying Collins is behind a bunch of players. Our 10th pick should beat out our 26th pick.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Can we please get back to talking about

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Right. It's a single variable linear regression model. It's just suggesting probabilities not individual predictions with high accuracy.

It would be interesting if the author expanded the model to include another feature such as age or college minutes played.

That would be more work than the author intended?

 

[blazerboy30]

That would be more work than the author intended?

Most likely. Silly me. I forgot this is the era of lazy journalism.

 

[Strenuus]

Most likely. Silly me. I forgot this is the era of lazy journalism.

Lazy journalism or a job that is having to cater to the impatient consumer?

 

[Blazinaway]

No, I'm responding to someone saying Collins is behind a bunch of players. Our 10th pick should beat out our 26th pick.

I don't agree with that for "this yr" and I explained why in another post. We'll just have to agree to disagree

 

[blazerboy30]

[QUOTE="Strenuus, post: 4299860, member: 27918"]Lazy journalism or a job that is having to cater to the impatient consumer?[/QUOTE]

If they want to title their article as "How to Identify an NBA Draft Bust in Just 10 Games", I don't think it's a lot to ask to do a multivariate regression as opposed to a uni-variate regression.

 

[MickZagger]

This forum truly makes it harder and harder to be a Blazer fan. I love them and have been watching since I was a kid, but coming here and seeing grown men throw hissy fits over Stotts and a rookie not even 15 games in is pretty sad.

For the most part, the Blazers under this regime have ALWAYS brought their young players along slowly. CJ, Crabbe, Pat, Meyers, and now Collins. We have some of the best player development people in the NBA with our franchise and if you guys would settle down and take a breath you'd realize that the Blazers often times work with their young guys in the background their first and second years to prepare them for their opportunities. Look at how CJ developed. He was hurt and played only 38 games his rookie year and by the end of his second year he had played behind NBA players, grew accustomed to the NBA life and exploded in the playoffs and broke out his 3rd year.

Zach Collins is 19 years old. What were you doing at that age MM? The dude oozes potential and IMO will be a big part of the foundation of this franchise in 1-2 years.

You guys need to grow the fuck up and stop throwing hissy fits after every game.

True.

Its why I don't post on the board as much anymore. Too many knee jerk opinions. That and I realized that I don't give a shit about peoples opinions. The Blazers are more enjoyable to watch now.

 

[BonesJones]

Youre funny when you get worked up. I laugh way too hard at it. I'm sorry.

I know, I know, you'll say you're not worked up. But it's still funny regardless.

Yeah, I'll say I'm not because I'm not.

 

[BonesJones]

No, I'm responding to someone saying Collins is behind a bunch of players. Our 10th pick should beat out our 26th pick.

Since when? It was said after the draft that Swanigan was probably more NBA ready.

 

[jlprk]

Interesting article about a way to determine if a pick is a bust early in their first season (I.e., 10 games or so)

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/11/15/16654232/how-to-identify-an-nba-draft-bust-markelle-fultz

The thesis of the article is to put down Fultz, thus praising the Lakers for taking Ball #2. Sound familiar from the media?

The article cites this. Notice that many of the worst were injury-prone? So duh, they had bad career starts.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=FgXYg

The article cites this. The article conveniently forgot to note its theory's failures like Brandon Jennings at #5.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=ElVFj