Event Egor Demin? 2025 nba draft candidate

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Users who are viewing this thread

Isn't an NBA season 82 games? Two seasons = 164.
Yeah. So these are players that played 2 or more NBA seasons. I didn’t want to include players like you pointed out earlier that were borderline and didn’t get a chance to play and improve.
 
Yeah. So these are players that played 2 or more NBA seasons. I didn’t want to include players like you pointed out earlier that were borderline and didn’t get a chance to play and improve.

Don't 1R draft picks get guaranteed 2-year contracts, though? My point being that there were a lot of borderline players included just by filtering it that way. Anyone picked in the first round is going to be around at least two years, whether they have it or not. The tires are being kicked on them. Then a slice of that pie is players whose games aren't predicated on shooting the 3. Then a slice of those players are guys that were in college for 3 years instead of 1 who got to improve their shooting % before going pro and had a much larger sample size.

And, after all of that, their 3-pt % went up nearly an entire point, which actually is more significant than it's going to appear.
 
Looking at the data:
- I took 281 college players drafted from 2011 to 2020.
- I filtered by players that played a minimum of 164 games in the NBA.

I compared their college 3-pt shooting percentage to their NBA 3-pt shooting percentage.

On average, players only improve their shooting percentage by 0.7% (if they shot 35.0% in college, they shot 35.7% in the NBA).

Also, I looked at their FT% to see if that was a good indicator if they could more easily 'learn' to be a good 3-pt shooter. I found no correlation -

View attachment 73793

My conclusion: Becoming a good NBA 3-point shooter is not easily learned. What the player is in college is probably what the player will be in the NBA. Sample size is of course a factor. Free-throw shooting is not a good indicator if a player can more easily learn to be a good NBA 3 pt shooter.

NBA franchises by in large disagree with that last part. They study this stuff for a living so I'm not going to argue with that.

I'd like to see you filter by lottery picks or 1st round picks and see what the results are.
 
The original quote was about "big PGs"
okay, but I don't think Demin will be running an NBA point real soon as his handle is another skill he's not very good at (yet)... they get into that in the video I linked below. Smaller players hounded him into a lot of turnovers in college (2.9 TOs per game) and it won't get easier in the pros. Part of the reason most PGs are shorter is that taller players have higher dribbles and are easier to pick. I think it's more likely he finds success as a secondary playmaker, but he'll have to improve his 3 ball for that role.

Again, he's an intriguing prospect with some very desirable skills. I would be excited if they selected him as that would mean they believe he's going to get a lot better at some of his shortcomings, I just think he's at least a season away from contributing much.



STOMP
 
I think Kasparas is more well rounded but I doubt he's there at 11. If he is, I prefer him but still like Demin's chances at being special.
 
Don't 1R draft picks get guaranteed 2-year contracts, though? My point being that there were a lot of borderline players included just by filtering it that way. Anyone picked in the first round is going to be around at least two years, whether they have it or not. The tires are being kicked on them. Then a slice of that pie is players whose games aren't predicated on shooting the 3. Then a slice of those players are guys that were in college for 3 years instead of 1 who got to improve their shooting % before going pro and had a much larger sample size.

And, after all of that, their 3-pt % went up nearly an entire point, which actually is more significant than it's going to appear.
Players miss games.
Sharpe has played in ~185 games after 3 seasons.
Camara is at ~150 games after 2 season
Scoot is at ~130 games

His filter on the analysis is fair
 
Watching his interviews he’d fit right in with his nice guy kinda goofy personality. So that’s a pass on him for me. We need some more alpha types on this roster imo. We need more dawgs.
 
Watching his interviews he’d fit right in with his nice guy kinda goofy personality. So that’s a pass on him for me. We need some more alpha types on this roster imo. We need more dawgs.
how many times have you heard players described as transforming into completely different people once play begins? Things definitely change once the endorphins kick in.

Also, while I agree that you want players with a very competitive on-court personalities, it's a bit different for scorers vs facilitators. Scorers ideally are stone cold killers on the court while the best facilitators can be a bit more zen. I can think of great players that were/are exceptions to these stereotypes but thats a general observation.

STOMP
 
Last edited:
How is this guy likely to succeed more than that Poku guy that OKC wasted a pick on?

I mean, flashy passes are my jam, so I'd love him as a G-League re-claimee or trade throw-in (a la Banton) but surely we can't afford to waste #11 on a guy who has essentially one skill (two if height alone counts as an NBA skill).
 
Players miss games.
Sharpe has played in ~185 games after 3 seasons.
Camara is at ~150 games after 2 season
Scoot is at ~130 games

His filter on the analysis is fair

They don't miss so many games that it would skew it that much. In the case of Camara, he's 1% short of making that benchmark.

I think it's quibbling to say "he didn't QUITE" play 164 games over two seasons to support a misleading metric. If you have to qualify details that minute, the argument has some pretty gaping holes in its legitimacy.
 
Look at the trend in his percentages. His first year with new teams is bad. His second year is much better. Shooting can be as much between the ears as it is in the body. Perhaps moving from Russia to mormon Utah was a bit of an adjustment!? I trust in his mechanics. It might take a year or two, but I think his shooting will be fine.
I'm not sure Portland has a specific shooting coach, but there have been a few guys recently who have shown considerable improvement in their time here.

what trend? He only spent 1 season at BYU

I was only able to find this when searching for his stats in the Euro Cadet League (high school) when he played for Real Madrid (under 18 tournament):

upload_2025-5-22_9-14-37.png

https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/en/euroleague/players/egor-demin/011647/

I'd be interested if there is more of a record somewhere even though I'm not sure HS stats would tell us much

as a 15-16 year old he shot 43% on three's; but as a 17-18 year old he shot 19%. Combining that data set with his BYU record, he shot 68-239 on three's. That's 28.5% and 239 shots is a decent sample size. As far as I can tell, the euro/fiba three point arc is about the same distance from the hoop as the NCAA arc. His 2 point FG% improved but I can't find anything on average shot distance

by the way, he didn't move from Moscow-->Provo; it was Moscow-->Madrid (3-4 years)-->Provo
 
Back
Top