Ellis on the block?

[Natebishop3]

ESPN Insider has some article up about Monta being available. I know we've talked about him before, but I think he could do very well with Roy.

Joel, Rudy, and Bayless for Monta.

Miller, Pendergraph, Cunningham for Landry and Udrih from Sac.

Monta/Udrih/Johnson
Roy/Matthews/Williams
Batum/Babbitt
Aldridge/Landry
Oden/Camby

Nine man rotation of Monta, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, Oden, Camby, Matthews, Landry, and Udrih.

 

[B-Roy]

Eww...

Yeah, just eww. I wouldn't take Ellis if they gave him to us for free.

And second trade is just laugh worthy for Sacramento. Udrih isn't a bad contract anymore.

 

[BGrantFan]

[video=youtube;dly6p4Fu5TE]

Anyhow, look at Ellis' Ortg and Drtg the past two years, and then tell me how you think he'd do on a good team that actually expects some defense and some discipline on offense.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html

 

[Ed O]

I'm not a fan of Ellis. He's a fragile, undersized high-volume shooter who's making a LOT of money.

Let GS keep him.

Ed O.

 

[BGrantFan]

How does a player on the WARRIORS end up with a sub-100 Ortg two seasons in a row?

No wonder he's available. He's fucking terrible in terms of being efficient and helping his team win games.

 

[RR7]

He's terrible as a #1 option. Look at where he was 2 years ago, when there were other options on the team. He was at 117 ORTG. Same Roy had this season. His 111 DRtg can easily be attributed to overall scheme and poor team defense. Having an Oden, Przybilla or Camby down low would make his DRtg look better.

 

[BGrantFan]

He's terrible as a #1 option. Look at where he was 2 years ago, when there were other options on the team. He was at 117 ORTG. Same Roy had this season. His 111 DRtg can easily be attributed to overall scheme and poor team defense. Having an Oden, Przybilla or Camby down low would make his DRtg look better.

He had a sub 100 ORtg with a USG% of over 29 (Roy had a 26.7 last year to go along with his 117 Ortg). That's ridiculously bad for Ellis, and his $11 million contract is baffling and not worth taking on, IMO.


That may well be the worst contract in the NBA right now.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I go back and forth on Ellis. I think he's a talent, but he plays such a different style of ball and has gotten so used to being "the man" that I'm not sure it would end well if he came here and played tug of war with Nate and Brandon. Total high risk, high reward kind of move ... but one I would pass on.

 

[Minstrel]

I think Ellis was a talented young player 2 years ago, when he was pushing a 20 PER at age 22. I'm just worried, similar to Luol Deng, that his ability level has changed due to injuries.

I wouldn't deal Bayless for him. Ellis is several years older, much more expensive and has only been a little more effective recently than Bayless was last season.

 

[RoyToy]

I think Ellis was a talented young player 2 years ago, when he was pushing a 20 PER at age 22. I'm just worried, similar to Luol Deng, that his ability level has changed due to injuries.

I wouldn't deal Bayless for him. Ellis is several years older, much more expensive and has only been a little more effective recently than Bayless was last season.

You're ridiculous.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

I had thought earlier of bringing Monta and Beidrins over in a trade. High risk, high reward as has been stated.

However, if Ellis is indeed on the block, GSW and Portland may want to talk about finding a third team....

New Jersey?
New Orleans?
And of course...
Kahn! LOL

 

[Minstrel]

You're ridiculous.

You have shamed me with your well-reasoned analysis.

 

[Nikolokolus]

You have shamed me with your well-reasoned analysis.

Checkmate?

 

[Minstrel]

Checkmate?

At least. And here I was thinking we were playing Yahtzee. Total blindside.

 

[THE HCP]

I love his game, but I wonder if it is a product of the Nellie System? Could he thrive in Nate's?

 

[Blazer4ever]

I remember Ellis having some very nice games against us, including one game where he totally outplayed Roy and led the Warriors to a blow-out win. I'm talking about this last year. I don't watch many of the other team's games when it's not against the Blazers so I wouldn't know what's the reason for the low numbers presented here, but from what I've seen of the Warriors, he's clearly their best player. I'm not sure he's 100% POINT-guard but I think between him and Roy, there'll be enough Point-guard skills in the backcourt.

How about this trade: Andre Miller and Marcus Camby for Ellis and Biedrins? maybe add a future pick because we're trading old for young. (we're also trading shorter contracts for much longer)

 

[Nikolokolus]

I remember Ellis having some very nice games against us, including one game where he totally outplayed Roy and led the Warriors to a blow-out win. I'm talking about this last year. I don't watch many of the other team's games when it's not against the Blazers so I wouldn't know what's the reason for the low numbers presented here, but from what I've seen of the Warriors, he's clearly their best player. I'm not sure he's 100% POINT-guard but I think between him and Roy, there'll be enough Point-guard skills in the backcourt.

How about this trade: Andre Miller and Marcus Camby for Ellis and Biedrins? maybe add a future pick because we're trading old for young. (we're also trading shorter contracts for much longer)

He's not their most talented player (that's Steph Curry) and that trade is awful.

 

[RayDavies]

not a big fan of inefficient, mini me SG... especially one that can't shoot the three in this system. Hell, Bayless could put up Ellis' numbers if he was the man in an uptempo system. And he'd play slightly better D than Ellis.

Pass!

Although Bedrins would be a nice pickup! I just can't watch him at the FT line... yuck!

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

I agree with NateBishop that Ellis would be a good addition to this team. He could take some pressure off Roy during the first three quarters of the game and be another player the opposing team must guard. I also think he would blend in fine with the winning culture we have and he wouldn't be a prima donna if here.

Our team needs another go-to player. His style fits nicely with Roy and his ball-dominating ways.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I agree with NateBishop that Ellis would be a good addition to this team. He could take some pressure off Roy during the first three quarters of the game and be another player the opposing team must guard. I also think he would blend in fine with the winning culture we have and he wouldn't be a prima donna if here.

Our team needs another go-to player. His style fits nicely with Roy and his ball-dominating ways.

Ellis' usage rate 29%
Roy's usage rate 27%

How is that going to work out?

 

[andalusian]

Ellis' usage rate 29%
Roy's usage rate 27%

How is that going to work out?

This is not a big problem, imho - as usage% does not really measure dribbling and dominating the ball - just the participation in offensive sets. If Ellis can thrive off-the-ball in catch and shoot situations or as a guy that gets the ball in movement - it would work just fine. If he needs to dribble the ball to be effective - it might not.

I am not that sure where Ellis falls on this scale - but the usage% issue would not worry me much. This would be much more of an issue in Miami, imho, as their big 3 had a combined USG% of close to 100% - one of these guys is not going to look so hot from a statistical point of view, so if they can not close the deal next year, there will be a fall-out imho.

 

[RR7]

He had a sub 100 ORtg with a USG% of over 29 (Roy had a 26.7 last year to go along with his 117 Ortg). That's ridiculously bad for Ellis, and his $11 million contract is baffling and not worth taking on, IMO.


That may well be the worst contract in the NBA right now.

I agree. Don't bother quoting me if you aren't referring to anything, or reading my comment. He was awful last year and this year. Like I stated, he's terrible as a #1 option. Primarily with D-Leaguers as teammates. Two years ago, playing with decent teammates, he was a really good #2/3 option for GS. Would he accept going back to that? Maybe not. But GS isn't going to let him do what he did last year, with their comments about building around Curry. Lik thers have said, it's high risk, high reward. Depending on the price, I think it's definitely worth it.

 

[Idog1976]

Ellis' usage rate 29%
Roy's usage rate 27%

How is that going to work out?

I think we might have a better fit next to Roy in Matthews. The more I've thought about it, assuming there are no big trades, the more I like a Matthews/Batum/Roy 1-2-3 with LMA and Oden. Great Defense. Let's Roy get in the passing lanes, two three point shooters, Roy can defend the worst guy 1 thru 3 on the other team. Yeah I like it, as long as they can get the ball over half court it could be nice.

 

[RR7]

I think we might have a better fit next to Roy in Matthews. The more I've thought about it, assuming there are no big trades, the more I like a Matthews/Batum/Roy 1-2-3 with LMA and Oden. Great Defense. Let's Roy get in the passing lanes, two three point shooters, Roy can defend the worst guy 1 thru 3 on the other team. Yeah I like it, as long as they can get the ball over half court it could be nice.

I like that as a situational lineup. My only concern, outside of imrpovement by Batum, is having only one wing player that can creat his own shot. We struggled against Houston in the playoffs because if they focused on Roy, nobody else stepped up. Similar situation last year, except with Phoenix focusing on Miller. You need to have more than one person that can create with the ball in their hand. I don't see Matthews as that.

 

[Idog1976]

I like that as a situational lineup. My only concern, outside of imrpovement by Batum, is having only one wing player that can creat his own shot. We struggled against Houston in the playoffs because if they focused on Roy, nobody else stepped up. Similar situation last year, except with Phoenix focusing on Miller. You need to have more than one person that can create with the ball in their hand. I don't see Matthews as that.

Yeah, it probably is more situational then anything, I'm just tired of Miller's flat as a pancake jumper. Hopefully we will get Paul or Collison and this won't be an issue. I definitely like that lineup to lock down another team that has a good back court and weak front court. That's another thing. With a healthy front line I'm hoping for Oden and LMA to put up bigger offensive numbers this year as each one relieves defensive pressure off the other. Teams will think twice about double teaming LMA with Oden lurking near the rim.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This is not a big problem, imho - as usage% does not really measure dribbling and dominating the ball - just the participation in offensive sets. If Ellis can thrive off-the-ball in catch and shoot situations or as a guy that gets the ball in movement - it would work just fine. If he needs to dribble the ball to be effective - it might not.

I am not that sure where Ellis falls on this scale - but the usage% issue would not worry me much. This would be much more of an issue in Miami, imho, as their big 3 had a combined USG% of close to 100% - one of these guys is not going to look so hot from a statistical point of view, so if they can not close the deal next year, there will be a fall-out imho.

Except in this case it absolutely measures the amount of time Ellis spends dribbling the ball and pounding the rock on the perimeter looking for a driving lane so he can get his own shot. He's not an off-the-ball player, he's not much of a shooter and there would be some serious friction between he and Roy if they were paired up in a starting back-court.

 

[Idog1976]

Except in this case it absolutely measures the amount of time Ellis spends dribbling the ball and pounding the rock on the perimeter looking for a driving lane so he can get his own shot. He's not an off-the-ball player, he's not much of a shooter and there would be some serious friction between he and Roy if they were paired up in a starting back-court.

Indeed, this is why part of me wonders if Collison wouldn't be a better fit next to Roy then Paul. I mean obviously if Roy couldn't adjust next to Paul we'd have to figure something out that probably involved trading Roy.

Anyways, before I go way off the deep end with hypotheticals let me just spit out my point. It might be better to find a younger less established (read large egoed) PG to play next to and defer to Roy. That's why my list of reasonable possibilities (assuming CP3 is staying in NOH) reads like this:

1. Collison
2. Conley Jr.

and it gets hazy after that trying to find young PG's who defend reasonably well, don't require high USG% and can shoot the ball well. Conley Jr. IMO is much better then his stats would indicate due to being stuck in Basketball and real life hell of Memphis.

 

[andalusian]

Except in this case it absolutely measures the amount of time Ellis spends dribbling the ball and pounding the rock on the perimeter looking for a driving lane so he can get his own shot. He's not an off-the-ball player, he's not much of a shooter and there would be some serious friction between he and Roy if they were paired up in a starting back-court.

Ellis's best year, efficiency wise, was 2008 - where he had a 22% USG% playing next to B-Diddy and his 26% USG%

Again, a couple of guys in the 25% USG% do not worry me that much - what worries me about Ellis is the fact that he is not a great 3P% - he is actually, career wise, as good as Bayless is in this department - and if you look at their career PER, TS% and the like, I would say that keeping JB in the secondary scorer role is likely to be just as effective as getting Ellis, at this point in time.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Ellis's best year, efficiency wise, was 2008 - where he had a 22% USG% playing next to B-Diddy and his 26% USG%

Again, a couple of guys in the 25% USG% do not worry me that much - what worries me about Ellis is the fact that he is not a great 3P% - he is actually, career wise, as good as Bayless is in this department - and if you look at their career PER, TS% and the like, I would say that keeping JB in the secondary scorer role is likely to be just as effective as getting Ellis, at this point in time.

Exactly right. It's the fact that both Ellis and Roy are ball dominant and that neither are great in spot up or catch and shoot situations that makes them untenable as a duo -- they play the same way except that Roy is much, much more efficient and much, much better ... it's the same reason I've been saying that I don't think Bayless is the starting point guard of the future for this team because he's such a mediocre off-the-ball player.

I'd much rather see Conley, Collison, Holladay (pipe dream), or another young pass first guy with legitimate 3 point range and some playmaking ability than to see the team add yet another combo guard to the roster ... especially a combo guard who has only ever played for Don Nelson in the NBA and costs 8-9 million a year.

 

[RR7]

The interesting thing with usage, if you combine it with assist %, you can see how often that player is truly involved in the team's plays. As Idog pointed out, usage is sometimes tough to judge a player on, because finishing a possession with a jumper after running off of a screen and catching a pass counts the same as pounding the ball for 22 seconds and hoisting up a jumper. No real way to see how much that player has the ball in their hands. Still, you watch enough games, and get used to a guy with a high usage because of having the ball(Roy, Ellis, etc.), or finishing possessions(Rip Hamilton).

Assist % is the amount of possessions finishing with an assist from that player. Combining that with usage is basically how many possesions involve that player in some fashion or another.

Ellis had a 29% usage. And an assist % of 21. So he was basically involved in the finish, good or bad, of 50% of his team's possesions.
Roy had a 27% usage. And an assist % of 23. Also around 50% of the team's possesions.
Darren Collison had a 23% usage. And an assist % of 33. He was involved in 56% of his team's possesions.

Looking at N.O., Collison was only assisted on 32% of his baskets. Which was less than Roy's 34%, and, surprisingly, Ellis' 36%. So while Collison looks to be the better fit than Ellis, he actually had the ball in his hands more often for N.O. than Ellis did for GS. Yet Ellis isn't afit because he'd need the ball in his hands too much?