Ellis on the block?

[BGrantFan]

The interesting thing with usage, if you combine it with assist %, you can see how often that player is truly involved in the team's plays. As Idog pointed out, usage is sometimes tough to judge a player on, because finishing a possession with a jumper after running off of a screen and catching a pass counts the same as pounding the ball for 22 seconds and hoisting up a jumper. No real way to see how much that player has the ball in their hands. Still, you watch enough games, and get used to a guy with a high usage because of having the ball(Roy, Ellis, etc.), or finishing possessions(Rip Hamilton).

Assist % is the amount of possessions finishing with an assist from that player. Combining that with usage is basically how many possesions involve that player in some fashion or another.

Ellis had a 29% usage. And an assist % of 21. So he was basically involved in the finish, good or bad, of 50% of his team's possesions.
Roy had a 27% usage. And an assist % of 23. Also around 50% of the team's possesions.
Darren Collison had a 23% usage. And an assist % of 33. He was involved in 56% of his team's possesions.

Looking at N.O., Collison was only assisted on 32% of his baskets. Which was less than Roy's 34%, and, surprisingly, Ellis' 36%. So while Collison looks to be the better fit than Ellis, he actually had the ball in his hands more often for N.O. than Ellis did for GS. Yet Ellis isn't afit because he'd need the ball in his hands too much?

Per/36, though, Collison had 7.4 assists, while Ellis only had 4.6 assists. Collison is much more willing (and better) at getting teammates baskets.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The interesting thing with usage, if you combine it with assist %, you can see how often that player is truly involved in the team's plays. As Idog pointed out, usage is sometimes tough to judge a player on, because finishing a possession with a jumper after running off of a screen and catching a pass counts the same as pounding the ball for 22 seconds and hoisting up a jumper. No real way to see how much that player has the ball in their hands. Still, you watch enough games, and get used to a guy with a high usage because of having the ball(Roy, Ellis, etc.), or finishing possessions(Rip Hamilton).

Assist % is the amount of possessions finishing with an assist from that player. Combining that with usage is basically how many possesions involve that player in some fashion or another.

Ellis had a 29% usage. And an assist % of 21. So he was basically involved in the finish, good or bad, of 50% of his team's possesions.
Roy had a 27% usage. And an assist % of 23. Also around 50% of the team's possesions.
Darren Collison had a 23% usage. And an assist % of 33. He was involved in 56% of his team's possesions.

Looking at N.O., Collison was only assisted on 32% of his baskets. Which was less than Roy's 34%, and, surprisingly, Ellis' 36%. So while Collison looks to be the better fit than Ellis, he actually had the ball in his hands more often for N.O. than Ellis did for GS. Yet Ellis isn't afit because he'd need the ball in his hands too much?

You're getting way too caught up in the numbers instead of looking at actual skill-sets and how they might compliment the rest of the team. Collison is an actual point guard who can run a team and get others involved (his high assist percentage bears that out), he's also a very good three point shooter (how many of those were off the catch and how many were pull-ups is important to consider) but the fact is that if you want a guard to pair up with Roy he has to have a couple of skills that set him apart from Brandon 1) he provides space when Roy does drive becuase he's a deep threat when he's off the ball, and 2) he's much more likely to generate good shots for Nic, Aldridge and Oden when he's tasked with handling the ball and running the point. Ellis overlaps with Brandon enough that I think they end up getting in each other's way (like having two low post scorers on the floor at the same time).

 

[RR7]

I'm speaking to the issue of Ellis being ball dominant. If the worry is that Ellis needs the ball in his hands to be effective, than Collison is even more so along those lines.

 

[andalusian]

You're getting way too caught up in the numbers instead of looking at actual skill-sets and how they might compliment the rest of the team. Collison is an actual point guard who can run a team and get others involved (his high assist percentage bears that out), he's also a very good three point shooter (how many of those were off the catch and how many were pull-ups is important to consider) but the fact is that if you want a guard to pair up with Roy he has a couple of skills that set him apart from Ellis 1) he provides space when Roy does drive becuase he's a deep threat when he's off the ball, and 2) he's much more likely to generate good shots for Nic, Aldridge and Oden when he's tasked with handling the ball and running the point.

I agree with this. Collison for Rudy will be a fantastic deal for both teams, if NOH really is trying to make CP3 happy. Add the fact that Collison seems to do well against fast opposing PGs on defense (A Blazers weakness) and I would love to see this deal happening. If we need to sweeten it with money/rights to Doron Shefer - so be it.

 

[Idog1976]

The interesting thing with usage, if you combine it with assist %, you can see how often that player is truly involved in the team's plays. As Idog pointed out, usage is sometimes tough to judge a player on, because finishing a possession with a jumper after running off of a screen and catching a pass counts the same as pounding the ball for 22 seconds and hoisting up a jumper. No real way to see how much that player has the ball in their hands. Still, you watch enough games, and get used to a guy with a high usage because of having the ball(Roy, Ellis, etc.), or finishing possessions(Rip Hamilton).

Assist % is the amount of possessions finishing with an assist from that player. Combining that with usage is basically how many possesions involve that player in some fashion or another.

Ellis had a 29% usage. And an assist % of 21. So he was basically involved in the finish, good or bad, of 50% of his team's possesions.
Roy had a 27% usage. And an assist % of 23. Also around 50% of the team's possesions.
Darren Collison had a 23% usage. And an assist % of 33. He was involved in 56% of his team's possesions.

Looking at N.O., Collison was only assisted on 32% of his baskets. Which was less than Roy's 34%, and, surprisingly, Ellis' 36%. So while Collison looks to be the better fit than Ellis, he actually had the ball in his hands more often for N.O. than Ellis did for GS. Yet Ellis isn't afit because he'd need the ball in his hands too much?

Interesting points. However, IMO Collison > Ellis due to youth, contract, lack of injuries and 3 ball shooting. Same with Conley Jr. as an intangible with Mike you also get familiarity/friendship with Oden.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...008&p2=conlemi01&y2=2009&p3=collida01&y3=2010

 

[Idog1976]

I agree with this. Collison for Rudy will be a fantastic deal for both teams, if NOH really is trying to make CP3 happy.

I'm pretty sure we'd have to give up more then just Rudy. Either Rudy + Bayless for Collison and Wright or Rudy + Joel for Collison + Posey. I like the first better.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I agree with this. Collison for Rudy will be a fantastic deal for both teams, if NOH really is trying to make CP3 happy. Add the fact that Collison seems to do well against fast opposing PGs on defense (A Blazers weakness) and I would love to see this deal happening. If we need to sweeten it with money/rights to Doron Shefer - so be it.

I'm pretty sure we'd have to give up more then just Rudy. Either Rudy + Bayless for Collison and Wright or Rudy + Joel for Collison + Posey. I like the first better.

Well D69 (from clubblazers.com) did allude to a potential trade for Collison if the Rudy to Boston deal goes down: something like Sheed's imminent retired contract, Bayless and Dante to NO for Collison and Posey. Who knows, maybe we skip the middle man altogether with Boston and ship the Hornets Rudy, Bayless and Joel for Collison and Posey? (which doesn't work under the CBA)

 

[Idog1976]

Well D69 (from clubblazers.com) did allude to a potential trade for Collison if the Rudy to Boston deal goes down: something like Sheed's imminent retired contract, Bayless and Dante to NO for Collison and Posey. Who knows, maybe we skip the middle man altogether with Boston and ship the Hornets Rudy, Bayless and Joel for Collison and Posey?

I'd want a 1st round pick too. I like Collison, but that seems like over paying to me. Two talents + an expiring and we take back a bad contract? No. We want a 1st too. This isn't CP3 we're talking about.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'd want a 1st round pick too. I like Collison, but that seems like over paying to me. Two talents + an expiring and we take back a bad contract? No. We want a 1st too. This isn't CP3 we're talking about.

Think about how highly teams covet good young point guards? When you factor in the scarcity and the difficulty of acquiring a guy who can actually run your team at a high level you almost always have to "overpay." In this case I don't see how New Orleans would part with their first round pick, in fact we'd probably have to send along a cool 3 million to sweeten the pot.

Edit: we're talking about parting with a disgruntled shooting guard whose value is severely diminished, a combo guard with middling shooting percentages and below average court vision and a center coming off of a major knee injury ...

 

[andalusian]

Think about how highly teams covet good young point guards? When you factor in the scarcity and the difficulty of acquiring a guy who can actually run your team at a high level you almost always have to "overpay." In this case I don't see how New Orleans would part with their first round pick, in fact we'd probably have to send along a cool 3 million to sweeten the pot.

I agree we will need to overpay - but I think that the idea that you need to take a bad contract and Collison for Rudy (a player that feels a big need for them) and other young assets (JB, for all his faults, is as big an asset as Collison is for the right team, imho) - just makes no sense. Add the fact that NOH needs to get something done as well, it's not just the Blazers that have a need - NOH have a big need as well - convince CP3 to drop his trade request...

 

[Idog1976]

I agree we will need to overpay - but I think that the idea that you need to take a bad contract and Collison for Rudy (a player that feels a big need for them) and other young assets (JB, for all his faults, is as big an asset as Collison is for the right team, imho) - just makes no sense. Add the fact that NOH needs to get something done as well, it's not just the Blazers that have a need - NOH have a big need as well - convince CP3 to drop his trade request...

While Nik raises good points, it just makes a lot of sense to both teams. Send them $3 million and ask for a Top 3 protected 1st in return. Posey isn't HORRIBLE for us as we could use a 2nd (if Babbit is awful) or 3rd string SF if Batum gets in foul trouble or injured.

I still say the deal Nik outlined + we send $3 million and ask for a 1st in return. We could give them rights to Euro's as well, Claver might interest them. NOH is bargaining from weakness IMO. If they don't do something CP3 will deliver an ultimatum next summer.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I agree we will need to overpay - but I think that the idea that you need to take a bad contract and Collison for Rudy (a player that feels a big need for them) and other young assets (JB, for all his faults, is as big an asset as Collison is for the right team, imho) - just makes no sense. Add the fact that NOH needs to get something done as well, it's not just the Blazers that have a need - NOH have a big need as well - convince CP3 to drop his trade request...

There's always an opportunity cost in a trade, but you can't expect the Blazers to come out of this "stealing" Collison for nothing either.

The bottom line for me is that while it's true Rudy and Bayless could probably help the Hornets who are talent deficient at the wing, neither fills the needs of the Blazers (a point guard to eventually replace Miller and who can play next to Roy) the fact that both still have some talent and could probably be utilized better somewhere else is actually the best reason to trade them -- especially if you are trading them for somebody that addresses your own needs. In this case I think Collison plugs a big enough hole and Posey can still provide you with an adequate 3 and D guy off of the bench for 12-15 minutes a night (which would probably help his old legs stay fresh longer). The Hornets need to feel like they are getting something of value or there's no reason for them to trade Collison in the first place.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Bear in mind we're not the only team out there looking to acquire Collison, if the deal isn't good enough for New Orleans they'll look elsewhere.

 

[B-Roy]

While Nik raises good points, it just makes a lot of sense to both teams. Send them $3 million and ask for a Top 3 protected 1st in return. Posey isn't HORRIBLE for us as we could use a 2nd (if Babbit is awful) or 3rd string SF if Batum gets in foul trouble or injured.

I still say the deal Nik outlined + we send $3 million and ask for a 1st in return. We could give them rights to Euro's as well, Claver might interest them. NOH is bargaining from weakness IMO. If they don't do something CP3 will deliver an ultimatum next summer.

I'm almost certain New Orleans wouldn't add a first, and such an unprotected one at that. New Orleans could easily be in the lottery next year.

If they were to add a first, I could see a top 20 protected pick, maybe for a few years, then if Portland doesn't get the pick by a certain time, it becomes two seconds.

Collison is a good talent, I think a team like Indiana could pony up a good offer and not ask for a 1st in retrun.

 

[Blaze01]

If Nate is going to insist on using Roy to funnel the offense through then IMO it is imperative that you get a scoring guard to play off him, preferably a player who can take a bail out pass with 6 seconds or less and CREATE a shot for himself....something which Ellis can do....

I think he would be a great fit next to Roy...he adds that 2nd scorer that the team needs...and alleviates the "Oh shit, I got the ball and 4 seconds on the clock WTF do I do?" mentality that most all the other players on the team, including Lamarcus Aldridge suffer from.....

You give Ellis the ball with 4-6 seconds left, not only will he not be afraid to take the shot, but more often than not he will get a good look and the basket...and make the shot.....

POR needs more players like that if they are going to continue with a Roy-centric offense....

 

[andalusian]

Bear in mind we're not the only team out there looking to acquire Collison, if the deal isn't good enough for New Orleans they'll look elsewhere.

Sure, but likewise, NOH is not the only team looking at Rudy, and there would be a lot more if JB was on the market.

I agree that you have to overpay, but you do not need to include 2 young prospects on roughly the same scale as Collison and take a bad contract, 1 for 1 and money/rights to overseas player makes more sense, imho.

 

[andalusian]

If Nate is going to insist on using Roy to funnel the offense through then IMO it is imperative that you get a scoring guard to play off him, preferably a player who can take a bail out pass with 6 seconds or less and CREATE a shot for himself....something which Ellis can do....

We have a player like that on the roster, his name is Bayless, and he is actually a better scorer than Ellis when you look at TS% - not to mention that he comes at a fraction of the price.

 

[RR7]

We have a player like that on the roster, his name is Bayless, and he is actually a better scorer than Ellis when you look at TS% - not to mention that he comes at a fraction of the price.

If you look at TS% when Ellis was miscast as a #1 option, then yes.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Sure, but likewise, NOH is not the only team looking at Rudy, and there would be a lot more if JB was on the market.

I agree that you have to overpay, but you do not need to include 2 young prospects on roughly the same scale as Collison and take a bad contract, 1 for 1 and money/rights to overseas player makes more sense, imho.

Rudy's value is very depressed (because of his performance in the playoffs and the season more generally), JB's market is probably somewhat limited (not a lot of teams in the market for combo guards with mediocre shooting numbers) so I don't agree that they are on the same "scale" as Collison. I can pretty much guarantee that New Orleans isn't going to do a one for one swap of one of their best assets without shedding a bad contract in the process and certainly not for a depressed asset like Rudy, a limited asset like Bayless and the rights to some unproven quantities like Koponen, Freeland or Claver (maybe for Sinanovic though?).

 

[andalusian]

Rudy's value is very depressed (because of his performance in the playoffs and the season more generally), JB's market is probably somewhat limited (not a lot of teams in the market for combo guards with mediocre shooting numbers) so I don't agree that they are on the same "scale" as Collison. I can pretty much guarantee that New Orleans isn't going to do a one for one swap of one of their best assets without shedding a bad contract in the process and certainly not for a depressed asset like Rudy, a limited asset like Bayless and the rights to some unproven quantities like Koponen, Freeland or Claver (maybe for Sinanovic though?).

Who is going to take a huge contract off their hands with Collison? No-one in their right mind would do it. The Blazers can give them Rudy, an unproven off-shore prospect and money. With all due respect to NOH, nobody is going to absorb Posey's contract or Emeka's for Collison. The economy is not good all around, not just in New Orleans. The Blazers will have to overpay, but they will not have to take the pants off and bend over.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Who is going to take a huge contract off their hands with Collison? No-one in their right mind would do it. The Blazers can give them Rudy, an unproven off-shore prospect and money. With all due respect to NOH, nobody is going to absorb Posey's contract or Emeka's for Collison. The economy is not good all around, not just in New Orleans. The Blazers will have to overpay, but they will not have to take the pants off and bend over.

A "huge" contract? Posey's deal isn't great but at 6.5 this year and about 7 next it's not like he's some massive albatross that can't be absorbed by a team looking to pick up a young point guard. I guess we just disagree about what constitutes a fair deal in this situation.

 

[LittleAlex]

I love his game, but I wonder if it is a product of the Nellie System? Could he thrive in Nate's?

Short answers: Yes and No


Long answer: Absolutely and Fuck no.

 

[Blaze01]

We have a player like that on the roster, his name is Bayless, and he is actually a better scorer than Ellis when you look at TS% - not to mention that he comes at a fraction of the price.

I don't care what TS% you throw up there....but to say Bayless is a better scorer than Ellis is complete bullshit.....

 

[Idog1976]

I don't care what TS% you throw up there....but to say Bayless is a better scorer than Ellis is complete bullshit.....

Read the rest of the thread Ellis is not good "off the ball" especially not from deep. Do you really want Ellis soaking up low percentage shots and letting defenders sag off of him? I'd rather have Oden or LMA taking those shots. Or better yet a guy who can space the floor with the long ball allowing Roy and Oden to operate.

 

[RR7]

Read the rest of the thread Ellis is not good "off the ball" especially not from deep. Do you really want Ellis soaking up low percentage shots and letting defenders sag off of him? I'd rather have Oden or LMA taking those shots. Or better yet a guy who can space the floor with the long ball allowing Roy and Oden to operate.

We seemed to do pretty good with Miller alongside him, someone not providing spacing from deep. Won 4 less games than the previous season, with a ton more injuries to key players.

 

[Blaze01]

I'd rather have a guy, who when given the ball with the shot clock expiring has the ability to create and make a good shot for himself......

I think Ellis would be fine off the ball....the reason why he has the ball in his hands so often is that he is on a team of chuckers with no real distributor.....That GS team is all scorers, no distributors or defenders for that matter, that is thier philosophy...so often the best shot any of those players get is the one they are going to have to create themselves....

You put Ellis in POR offense he would be fine off the ball...ghe can hit the mid range shot, get to the rim, take contact to get to the foul line and as mentioned above...can take a dump pass from Roy, which seems to occur with POR offense way to fucking much and actually be able to create a decent shot with it....

Not even Bayless showed he could do that...Bayless could drive if given time to set up his attack run to the basket, but with 4-6 seconds left, forget about it....not enough time to get by his defender and his outside shot was extremely iffy at best.....

and the problem I have with LA is that often in crunch times he prefers to PASS off the ball instead of taking the shot like he should....

 

[Minstrel]

I agree we will need to overpay - but I think that the idea that you need to take a bad contract and Collison for Rudy (a player that feels a big need for them) and other young assets (JB, for all his faults, is as big an asset as Collison is for the right team, imho) - just makes no sense. Add the fact that NOH needs to get something done as well, it's not just the Blazers that have a need - NOH have a big need as well - convince CP3 to drop his trade request...

Agreed. I would be lukewarm on a straight Collison-for-Bayless swap, but wouldn't hate it. Giving up more talent in addition is probably not worth it.

However, I would absorb Okafor's contract (if Allen were okay doing so) to get Collison for Rudy + expirings, because I think Okafor is actually a good player. He's not some Eddy Curry type of dead salary. He's a good player who's somewhat overpaid (though maybe less than previously perceived after this off-season's contracts).

 

[andalusian]

Agreed. I would be lukewarm on a straight Collison-for-Bayless swap, but wouldn't hate it. Giving up more talent in addition is probably not worth it.

However, I would absorb Okafor's contract (if Allen were okay doing so) to get Collison for Rudy + expirings, because I think Okafor is actually a good player. He's not some Eddy Curry type of dead salary. He's a good player who's somewhat overpaid (though maybe less than previously perceived after this off-season's contracts).

Yeah, I would do that as well. Okafor would be a fantastic insurance as a 3rd defensive big with Oden and Camby - and will be a nice replacement for Joel.

 

[andalusian]

A "huge" contract? Posey's deal isn't great but at 6.5 this year and about 7 next it's not like he's some massive albatross that can't be absorbed by a team looking to pick up a young point guard. I guess we just disagree about what constitutes a fair deal in this situation.

$14m for a player in a position the team is deep in is a huge contract imho. That would make the $3m overpaying this year over the MLE for Matthews seem like chump change.

 

[Idog1976]

Agreed. I would be lukewarm on a straight Collison-for-Bayless swap, but wouldn't hate it. Giving up more talent in addition is probably not worth it.

However, I would absorb Okafor's contract (if Allen were okay doing so) to get Collison for Rudy + expirings, because I think Okafor is actually a good player. He's not some Eddy Curry type of dead salary. He's a good player who's somewhat overpaid (though maybe less than previously perceived after this off-season's contracts).

I would prefer Okafor as well, but then you really insure CP3 stays in NOH for the rest of time. I definitely prefer Okafor's talent over Posey's and adding to front court depth.