EPM Check-In: This Year vs Last

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JDC

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EPM is the most highly regarded all in one metrics so I like to look at it from time to time.....

Like all of these types of +/- stats, its best used comparing players in similar roles, but I think it does a pretty good of encapsulating things.

For those unfamiliar with the stat, the values are a player's contribution to the team in points per 100 possessions. It uses a combination of both box score level stats as well and raw plus minus (which is then adjusted to try and and control for who they play with and against, as well as other factors such as home court advantage and the rubber band effect)

With that said, let's look at the current numbers and how they compare with last year for all the players that were on the roster last year.

Donovan Clingan
24'-25': -1.0 Offense / +0.4 Defense
25'-26': +1.4 Offense / +1.5 Defense

Deni Avdija
24'-25': +1.3 Offense / -0.6 Defense
25'-26': +3.6 Offense / -1.4 Defense

Toumani Camara
24'-25': -0.3 Offense / +1.2 Defense
25'-26': -0.9 Offense / -0.2 Defense

Shaedon Sharpe
24'-25': +0.2 Offense / -1.0 Defense
25'-26': -0.1 Offense / -0.4 Defense

Jerami Grant
24'-25': -1.5 Offense / +0.5 Defense
25'-26': +1.6 Offense / -1.6 Defense

Kris Murray
24'-25': -3.4 Offense / +0.8 Defense
25'-26': -3.4 Offense / -0.1 Defense

I can post the fringe guys as well if anybody asks. Didn't include them since the sample with those guys is so small but anyways...

Let me know if these numbers are matching up with your eye test from what we've seen in the early part of the season.

For me I think it's pretty in line minus overrating Donovan's offensive contributions. I'd probably consider him a slight positive with him being an even bigger force on the offensive glass this year while also improving his decision making on putbacks and in pick and roll.

The shooting is providing little for the offense, but I think it's a part of his game he needs to develop for him to hit his ceiling and capitalize fully on his passing skill. I like that his being involved more in empty side pick and roll actions and uphill handoffs out of the corner lately. We saw very little of that early in the year and its the one area on the floor that I think he can be effective and add some value as a finisher and passer.

Like most here, I've been disappointed with Toumani. The offensive issues are the same with him and I think the system and no real guard for stretches has exploited those and he's unfortunately let those struggles affect his defense.

Playing more off the dribble which is never a good thing for him, less usage as a roll man...no Simons is a big factor here as we don't have anybody that forces teams to put two on the ball high on the floor consistently where he can eat on slips to the basket. Too many threes in transition as well....

We've seen glimpses of old Tou the last week so hopefully that trend continues.
 
So... Kris and Jerami are worse on D than last year? That surprises me.
Yeah the difference is probably exaggerated by these numbers, but I'd agree. Kris's stocks are slightly down, he's fouling more and defensive rebounding less even if eye test feels similar.

Anecdotally, Jerami has been the biggest culprit for our poor transition defense (along with Deni) and hasn't defended the rim nearly as well. We are also over 10 points better per 100 with him off the floor on defense.
 
Are these stats behind a paywall? If so, how do Clingan's stats compare with Zach Edey's? Kel'el Ware's? If you can be bothered...
 
Are these stats behind a paywall? If so, how do Clingan's stats compare with Zach Edey's? Kel'el Ware's? If you can be bothered...

This year's, no. Historical data is behind one though.

Just select actual as it defaults to its predictive data set.
 

This year's, no. Historical data is behind one though.

Just select actual as it defaults to its predictive data set.
following your link, I see it's is supposed to be 2025-26 but I also see Kyrie, Haliburton, and Dame showing up on the list. Makes me question a bit skeptical about the data
 
following your link, I see it's is supposed to be 2025-26 but I also see Kyrie, Haliburton, and Dame showing up on the list. Makes me question a bit skeptical about the data.
Tab over to actual for this year's data without injured players

... Like I noted in the post.

The expected data set is using their predictive model to estimate every players future contributions when healthy.
 
Tab over to actual for this year's data without injured players

... Like I noted in the post.

The expected data set is using their predictive model to estimate every players future contributions when healthy.
thanks!....I missed that
 
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