ESPN Future Rankings.............

[maxiep]

I'm not sure we as fans understand the body blows to this franchise that were Roy and GO, as well as our shit drafting of Babbitt, Nolan and Williams. The team was perfectly built (except for PG, and if Roy, LA and Oden were healthy, any of us could have played the point and been fine). It takes teams years to recover from those, and for us it's only been two. Our plan was destroyed and building on the fly isn't easy.

We got REALLY lucky with Lillard. We're going to need to get really lucky again, both with starting talent (at the top of the draft) and lower picks (to have an effective bench).

 

[Boob-No-More]

For every team you mentioned that has bombed out in the lottery, I can name 2 or 3 that have had winning teams because of it. Just because their franchises drafted poorly, doesn't mean it's a bad plan.

It's a bad plan because the lottery is such a crap shoot. And, even if you luck out and get one of the greatest players of his generation, he can still leave as a free agent when he gets tired of losing. Again, sucking only guarantees one thing - that you SUCK. I'm tired of losing and want to see some forward progress.

How many of those teams that were built through multiple consecutive trips to the lottery actually won championships? For every team you can name that has made it to the finals by years of sucking, I can name multiple teams that have won championships that haven't.

What you and other call getting lucky, I call being smart. Look at the Spurs. They have won 4 championships and are on their way to the finals and a possible 5th title. They've had exactly one lottery pick in the last 23 years. Since drafting Tim Duncan 16 years ago, they have won those 4 titles without drafting anyone higher than 20. Look at their current roster. Tony Parker was a 28th pick. Manu Ginobili was a 57th pick. Tiago Splitter was a 28th pick. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th by the Pacers and acquired by trade for George Hill was was picked 26th by the Spurs. Outside of Duncan, their entire starting line -up was acquired via very late 1st round and second round picks. And then they fill out their bench with guys like Gary Neal was wasn't even drafted. You can call that luck, but when it's part of a pattern, I call it smart.

The Cavs sucked for years and won the LeBron sweepstakes and have exactly one finals appearance and zero titles to show for it. OKC had top 4 picks 3 years in a row, have made it to the finals once and are already regressing due to stupid management decisions). And these are the successful teams that were built through the lottery. Minnesota had 7 picks in the top half of the lottery over a 6 year period, is still one of the worst teams in the league and has ZERO playoff appearances to show for it.

Pardon me if I don't like that "plan". We have two solid players to build around in Aldridge and Lillard - one a veteran and one just coming off his rookie year. So, let the building (NOT rebuilding!) begin. Get them a bench and use the 10th pick plus all that cap room to get a solid starting center and a good wing player. From the list above, some of the best centers in the league were taken at 10 or below, and there are always plenty of very solid 2/3s available at 10 and below in every draft. Every year, 1/3 - 1/2 the players in the all star game were drafted at 10 or below. The 10th pick plus a ton of cap space should be enough to get this team up to a 6 - 8 seed next season and then they can fine tune the roster from there.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

We got REALLY lucky with Lillard. We're going to need to get really lucky again, both with starting talent (at the top of the draft) and lower picks (to have an effective bench).

Was it luck or smart drafting? Olshey helped turn the Clippers around. He went after Hibbert and drafted Lillard. In terms of evaluating talent, he's the best GM the Blazers have had in over 20 years (and that includes both Whitsitt and Pritchard). Remember back when the Blazers regularly picked up great talent with late first round picks and second round picks? Guys like Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Cliff Robinson, etc.? Heck, even Clyde was a 14th pick. The Spurs still do it routinely. I like Olshey's ability to evaluate talent and assemble a roster. I give him a pass for last year's weak bench. He wasn't trying to build a win now roster last season. He was more interested in preserving cap space and flexibility moving forward. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with that cap space and the 10th pick (whether he keeps it, trades it for proven player, or moves up in the draft - lots of options).

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

It's a bad plan because the lottery is such a crap shoot. And, even if you luck out and get one of the greatest players of his generation, he can still leave as a free agent when he gets tired of losing. Again, sucking only guarantees one thing - that you SUCK. I'm tired of losing and want to see some forward progress.

How many of those teams that were built through multiple consecutive trips to the lottery actually won championships? For every team you can name that has made it to the finals by years of sucking, I can name multiple teams that have won championships that haven't.

What you and other call getting lucky, I call being smart. Look at the Spurs. They have won 4 championships and are on their way to the finals and a possible 5th title. They've had exactly one lottery pick in the last 23 years. Since drafting Tim Duncan 16 years ago, they have won those 4 titles without drafting anyone higher than 20. Look at their current roster. Tony Parker was a 28th pick. Manu Ginobili was a 57th pick. Tiago Splitter was a 28th pick. Kawhi Leonard was picked 15th by the Pacers and acquired by trade for George Hill was was picked 26th by the Spurs. Outside of Duncan, their entire starting line -up was acquired via very late 1st round and second round picks. And then they fill out their bench with guys like Gary Neal was wasn't even drafted. You can call that luck, but when it's part of a pattern, I call it smart.

The Cavs sucked for years and won the LeBron sweepstakes and have exactly one finals appearance and zero titles to show for it. OKC had top 4 picks 3 years in a row, have made it to the finals once and are already regressing due to stupid management decisions). And these are the successful teams that were built through the lottery. Minnesota had 7 picks in the top half of the lottery over a 6 year period, is still one of the worst teams in the league and has ZERO playoff appearances to show for it.

Pardon me if I don't like that "plan". We have two solid players to build around in Aldridge and Lillard - one a veteran and one just coming off his rookie year. So, let the building (NOT rebuilding!) begin. Get them a bench and use the 10th pick plus all that cap room to get a solid starting center and a good wing player. From the list above, some of the best centers in the league were taken at 10 or below, and there are always plenty of very solid 2/3s available at 10 and below in every draft. Every year, 1/3 - 1/2 the players in the all star game were drafted at 10 or below. The 10th pick plus a ton of cap space should be enough to get this team up to a 6 - 8 seed next season and then they can fine tune the roster from there.

BNM

That one Spurs lottery pick is the best PF in the history of the league, and arguably the 1-3 player in the entire league since he has been here. The way I see it, all three are great, and most likely either HOFers or will get consideration. However, without Duncan that teams wins zero championships.

How many teams have won a title without having a significant player from the lottery on it?

Either their own or via trade or FA?

Lillard is great, and Aldridge is a nice complimentary player, but we need a HUGE influx of talent. the way small market teams like Portland get that is through the lottery

 

[Mediocre Man]

Was it luck or smart drafting? Olshey helped turn the Clippers around. He went after Hibbert and drafted Lillard. In terms of evaluating talent, he's the best GM the Blazers have had in over 20 years (and that includes both Whitsitt and Pritchard). Remember back when the Blazers regularly picked up great talent with late first round picks and second round picks? Guys like Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Cliff Robinson, etc.? Heck, even Clyde was a 14th pick. The Spurs still do it routinely. I like Olshey's ability to evaluate talent and assemble a roster. I give him a pass for last year's weak bench. He wasn't trying to build a win now roster last season. He was more interested in preserving cap space and flexibility moving forward. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do with that cap space and the 10th pick (whether he keeps it, trades it for proven player, or moves up in the draft - lots of options).

BNM

Great point. I think it was a bit of both. he drafted for need, and got lucky dame was as good as he has been, but swung and missed on Leonard

 

[Boob-No-More]

How many teams have won a title without having a significant player from the lottery on it?

You just changed the criteria from multiple high lottery picks (multiple years of suckage) to ONE significant player from the lottery. That's a BIG difference in your position. We already have TWO significant players from the lottery in Aldridge and Lillard.

If you get to change the criteria, so do I. How many top 5 picks taken since 1997 (the year Duncan was drafted) have won championships (or better still, how many have been the best player on a championship team)?

Here's the top 5 draft picks over the last 15 years:

1st Pick:
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose
2007 Greg Oden
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2005 Andrew Bogut
2004 Dwight Howard
2003 Lebron James
2002 Yao Ming
2001 Kwame Brown
2000 Kenyon Martin
1999 Elton Brand
1998 Michael Olowokandi

2nd Pick:
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2011 Derrick Williams
2010 Evan Turner
2009 Hasheem Thabeet
2008 Michael Beasley
2007 Kevin Durant
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge
2005 Marvin Williams
2004 Emeka Okafor
2003 Darko Milicic
2002 Jay Williams
2001 Tyson Chandler
2000 Stromile Swift
1999 Steve Francis
1998 Mike Bibby

3rd Pick:
2012 Bradley Beal
2011 Enes Kanter
2010 Derrick Favors
2009 James Harden
2008 O.J. Mayo
2007 Al Horford
2006 Adam Morrison
2005 Deron Williams
2004 Ben Gordon
2003 Carmelo Anthony
2002 Mike Dunleavy
2001 Pau Gasol
2000 Darius Miles
1999 Baron Davis
1998 Raef LaFrentz

4th Pick:
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul
2004 Shaun Livingston
2003 Chris Bosh
2002 Drew Gooden
2001 Eddy Curry
2000 Marcus Fizer
1999 Lamar Odom
1998 Antawn Jamison

5th Pick:
2012 Thomas Robinson
2011 Jonas Valanciunas
2010 DeMarcus Cousins
2009 Ricky Rubio
2008 Kevin Love
2007 Jeff Green
2006 Shelden Williams
2005 Raymond Felton
2004 Devin Harris
2003 Dwyane Wade
2002 Nickoloz Tskitishvili
2001 Jason Richardson
2000 Mike Miller
1999 Jonathan Bender
1998 Vince Carter

That's really quite shocking. In the last 15 drafts, one No. 1 pick, one No. 2 pick, two No. 3 picks, two No. 4 picks and one No. 5 pick have won an NBA championship, and of those, only LeBron was the best player on his championship team - and NOT for the team that drafted him. In fact, not a single player drafted top 5 in the last 15 years has won a championship for the team that drafted him. Still think years of suckage and high lottery picks is the best way to win an NBA title?

P.S. What's really scary is Adam Morrison is the last top 5 pick to win a championship - as a seldom used scrub for a team that didn't draft him.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Great point. I think it was a bit of both. he drafted for need, and got lucky dame was as good as he has been, but swung and missed on Leonard

We had lots of needs. He took who he thought was BPA. He was right.

Not sure if he swung and missed on Leonard. I think it's too soon to make that call. He knew he was a project that would take years to develop. It's not like anyone taken after Leonard was a sure thing and made an immediate impact.

BNM

 

[e_blazer]

I agree with BNM on Leonard. You haven't been bashful with your disdain for him, MM, and Lord knows the guy needs a ton of work, but he's got good athleticism and a good shooting touch. I think he can learn to be at least decent on the defensive end. A ton of bigs have made long careers with a lot less in the way of talent.

 

[PapaG]

I disagree with his assessment of Lillards upside, but I'm a homer so that's expected.

How many other players in last year's draft have the potential to be a franchise player? One? Davis? That's all I really see.

Of course, when you go 19/6 your rookie year, and everybody other than Davis pretty much was below league average, the "upside" argument may be relative.

 

[PapaG]

I predict that when we finally solve the Center position, the player will be no taller than Aldridge. Aldridge should just gain 10-15 pounds and do it himself, but he refuses.

Why? He's one of the best PFs at his size in the game, and stays relatively healthy for an NBA big.

 

[PapaG]

That's NBA purgatory. We couldn't be in a worse position. Unless you're one of the glamour franchises, you have to get really bad to get really good. If you're mediocre, that's where you stay. You don't get a good enough draft pick to improve your team, you waste your money on signing and re-signing your mediocre talent and you're not good enough to attract any free agent unless you overpay for them.

Bottom line, we need to find a way to get shitty, or long term, we're screwed.

Without Lillard this past year in the draft, the Blazer would have been shitty and maybe won 20 games. This team would be horrible right now if Lillard had been a bust, which happens all the time at #6. I find it difficult to get upset because the best possible pick was made at #6.

 

[PapaG]

I think the people referring to mediocre hell or purgatory are talking about many years making the 7th or 8th seed, or just missing the playoffs. most of those teams struggle to get really good

OKC, which you brought up got really bad, and then acquired Durant and Westbrook

Chicago did as well in acquiring Rose

Portland did in acquiring Roy, Aldridge and Oden

There are way more teams than not who built their team by being shitty. Especially small market teams. Some teams got lucky in the draft and found a Hibbert or through trade and got a Marc Gasol. That is more an exception than a rule though

OKC missed the playoffs in both of Durant's first two seasons and won 20 and 23 games in doing so. They were still really bad until his 3rd season.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That's really quite shocking. In the last 15 drafts, one No. 1 pick, one No. 2 pick, two No. 3 picks, two No. 4 picks and one No. 5 pick have won an NBA championship, and of those, only LeBron was the best player on his championship team - and NOT for the team that drafted him. In fact, not a single player drafted top 5 in the last 15 years has won a championship for the team that drafted him. Still think years of suckage and high lottery picks is the best way to win an NBA title?

You forgot about Dwyane Wade (#5 pick, two titles, both for the team that drafted him, one as the best player). But aside from that, it's a valid point.

Of course I'm in the apparent minority that doesn't believe that our team needs to be a title team in order to be successful. I LOVED our early 90's teams, even though they never won a title, and still consider them to have been very successful. Maybe I romanticize them because I was in middle school at the time. But if we could build a team that could win a few playoff series', make the WCF a couple times, and give us something to believe in, I'd be satisfied--title or not.