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Everyone in POR has basically targeted the summer of 2009 as our big FA Summer, in large part b/c soon after that Roy and LMA will be signing big deals, or else have huge cap holds in the Summer of LeBron & Co.
But what if we traded one of them for someone comparable in the 2007 or 08 draft class? Then we'd only have one big contract. (I'm assuming 12M starting contract for Roy and 11M for LMA). For instance, if we traded LMA for Horford (with assorted pieces on either side to make fit), we'd get a comparable player in the same position that saves roughly 6M in 2010 cap space. If we traded LMA for Brandon Wright from GSW (again, many more pieces required on their end), we'd save roughly 9M.
That leaves Joel, Oden, Webster, Roy (@12M), bayless, rudy, batum, sergio, kopo, freeland, 2009 pick (@1.5M) under contract. That comes out to 41.2M. Salary cap assumptions are around 63M or so for 2010. So if we kept LMA (and didn't use this year's cap space) it would be at 52.3M (assuming a 11M starting contract -- about Josh Smith level). If we traded for Horford, it would be about 46.7M, leaving about 16M in space. If we traded for Wright, it would be around 44.6M, so we'd have 18M in space. If we traded Joel and LMA and got back Horford and an expiring, for example, we'd be at 37M...giving us 25M in space.
Something tells me we won't be trying to trade for a stud SF, just in case. Webs and Batum can hold the fort for the next year and a half. I'm much less sold on Sergio/Bayless holding the fort over the next 18 months, so I'd go with a short-term stud PG (I keep saying Nash, but if you think Parker or Harris is "gettable", then fine).
So there ends up being a couple of endgames. We have a pretty stacked roster (Roy, Oden, 2007 PF) and 16-25M in cap space in the summer of LeBron. Or we just use our space this summer to sign K*be (if he opts out), and roll with Roy/K*be/Rudy/LMA/Oden. Needless to say, I like #1 better. If we don't get LeBron, or Nash...there's still plenty to go around (not like this summer).
But what if we traded one of them for someone comparable in the 2007 or 08 draft class? Then we'd only have one big contract. (I'm assuming 12M starting contract for Roy and 11M for LMA). For instance, if we traded LMA for Horford (with assorted pieces on either side to make fit), we'd get a comparable player in the same position that saves roughly 6M in 2010 cap space. If we traded LMA for Brandon Wright from GSW (again, many more pieces required on their end), we'd save roughly 9M.
That leaves Joel, Oden, Webster, Roy (@12M), bayless, rudy, batum, sergio, kopo, freeland, 2009 pick (@1.5M) under contract. That comes out to 41.2M. Salary cap assumptions are around 63M or so for 2010. So if we kept LMA (and didn't use this year's cap space) it would be at 52.3M (assuming a 11M starting contract -- about Josh Smith level). If we traded for Horford, it would be about 46.7M, leaving about 16M in space. If we traded for Wright, it would be around 44.6M, so we'd have 18M in space. If we traded Joel and LMA and got back Horford and an expiring, for example, we'd be at 37M...giving us 25M in space.
Something tells me we won't be trying to trade for a stud SF, just in case. Webs and Batum can hold the fort for the next year and a half. I'm much less sold on Sergio/Bayless holding the fort over the next 18 months, so I'd go with a short-term stud PG (I keep saying Nash, but if you think Parker or Harris is "gettable", then fine).
So there ends up being a couple of endgames. We have a pretty stacked roster (Roy, Oden, 2007 PF) and 16-25M in cap space in the summer of LeBron. Or we just use our space this summer to sign K*be (if he opts out), and roll with Roy/K*be/Rudy/LMA/Oden. Needless to say, I like #1 better. If we don't get LeBron, or Nash...there's still plenty to go around (not like this summer).
