ESPN rankings by position (Using Doolittle)

[BrianFromWA]

(Clipped info due to Insider)

Interesting take by ESPN on players' ranking by position and "TrueWARP". I was surprised by a lot of the rankings. I've bolded the ranking within the position.

1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of his career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.

2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.

4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.

PG:

5. Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 11.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.0 | Overall rank: 12

With a better roster around him, Lillard has taken a big step forward from his Rookie of the Year 2012-13 campaign. He's become more of a scorer than a passer, and more of his possessions are terminating in 3-point shots and free throws, while fewer of them are chalked up to turnovers. He's improved from a league-average 3-point shooter to a knockdown, 45-percent marksman. Simply put, Lillard has played like an All-Star.

SG:

4. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 7.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 24

The addition of a strong set of role players helped to boost the Trail Blazers into contention, but just as important has been the rapid climb of Matthews into a bona fide third wheel to go with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Matthews is having his best season shooting the ball, and is now one of the NBA's top long-range threats. His true shooting percentage ranks fourth in the league among qualifying players.

SF:

3. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall Rank: 21
In his sixth season, we have to give up on the idea that Batum is going to put up the kind of offensive numbers you expect from a true foundation player. Instead, he's become one of the NBA's elite role players, and the ascension of Wesley Matthews as Batum's wing partner makes that more than OK for the Trail Blazers. Batum has been used as more of a playmaker, soaking up some of that responsibility from Damian Lillard, but his spike in assists has been somewhat undermined by an uptick in turnovers.

PF:

7. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall Rank: 29
Aldridge finished No. 11 in the summer ratings, but he has soared into the top 10 on the wings of his most prolific season yet. Aldridge has taken a career-high 20.9 shots per game and even though his shooting percentages are at a career low, he's averaging 23.7 points per game. Playing on his most talented team yet, Aldridge has sliced his turnover rate to a minuscule level. Only Al Jefferson commits miscues less frequently among high-usage players.

C: Robin was not in the top 10, the "next 5", or #16 or #17.

I think it's a bit of a bad analysis to blend preseason projection with statistical reality, but if they're taking into account prior performance then I guess it's semi-legit----I just don't like blending them.

 

[Draco]

Pelton acknowledged WARP is not accurate for players like LaMarcus who can space the floor without shooting 3's. WARP puts a premium on players who have a good 3pt% as it is highly correlated with teams that have efficient offense. Having him as the 7th best PF is a joke.

 

[Strenuus]

Who the hell is the 6 before LMA? At minumum he should be top 3.

 

[jlprk]

2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience.

So, WARP measures how much a player exceeds preseason expectations.

 

[PapaG]

So, WARP measures how much a player exceeds preseason expectations.

Pelton is an absolute balloon. Throw numbers into a computer and get some dumb results. I'm sure the money is at least acceptable, but is it worth looking like an idiot nationally when one had to continually change their statistical formula?

What are his current adjusted preseason predictions for Portland?

 

[Blazer Fanatic]

Pelton is an absolute baffoon. Throw numbers into a computer and get some dumb results. I'm sure the money is at least acceptable, but is it worth looking like an idiot nationally when one had to continually change their statistical formula?

What are his current adjusted preseason predictions for Portland?

FIFY

Worse, he talks about WARP and his other crap models that are wrong a super-duper majority (it's a technical term) of the time, in the 3rd person. Like it's not his fault the models are wrong. lol He spends so much time making excuses and exception, only choosing to talk about where the poop actually stuck, that I can't for the life of me understand the appeal.

With all that data, it’s not hard to find a few bits of info that seems to factor out correctly. So, then he writes a diatribe about those few instances for ESPiN insider, and dismisses the crap with excuses. Then fans seeking validation for what they believe go to feed their insatiable appetite for proof that their team or player is the best. Or, maybe they check out the hacked version from the scrub “contributors” on Homer’s Edge who repeat the same “analysis” ad nauseam like it gives them credibility to speak so definitively about their basketball acumen. It was entertaining for a while, but now it's just a waiting game for them to eat their crow and hopefully move on to writing Game of Thrones trivia books.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Pelton is an absolute balloon.

Best insult since someone called Canzano a bowling shoe.

 

[PapaG]

FIFY

No, I meant balloon. It's full of air and what appears to be mass, but put pressure on it, it pops into nothing.

 

[PapaG]

Best insult since someone called Canzano a bowling shoe.

That was me who called Canzano a bowling shoe.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

That was me who called Canzano a bowling shoe.

Perhaps you did, but I was pretty sure "bowling shoe" was an OddEnormous special.

http://sportstwo.com/threads/156082...cerns-me....?p=2293308&viewfull=1#post2293308

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Perhaps you did, but I was pretty sure "bowling shoe" was an OddEnormous special.

http://sportstwo.com/threads/156082...cerns-me....?p=2293308&viewfull=1#post2293308

There it is!

 

[BrianFromWA]

Man, I knew that LMA was going to be brought up, but no one else found it odd that 3 of our starters are better relative to position than LMA is at PF? Especially Wes?

 

[blue9]

Man, I knew that LMA was going to be brought up, but no one else found it odd that 3 of our starters are better relative to position than LMA is at PF? Especially Wes?

The league is flush with PF talent, but barren when it comes to SG talent. What surprises me is Lillar_ (to use a MM-ism) being ranked so high.

 

[Strenuus]

The league is flush with PF talent, but barren when it comes to SG talent. What surprises me is Lillar_ (to use a MM-ism) being ranked so high.

Who would be your current (meaning healthy as of today) top 5?

 

[blue9]

Who would be your current (meaning healthy as of today) top 5?

Haven't really given it any thought, and haven't really watched other teams except when we play them. I've just been underwhelmed with Lillard this season - he's an average starting PG. I like his outside shooting and competitive fire, but aside from those two aspects he doesn't really do anything better than the next guy.

 

[mook]

Haven't really given it any thought, and haven't really watched other teams except when we play them. I've just been underwhelmed with Lillard this season - he's an average starting PG. I like his outside shooting and competitive fire, but aside from those two aspects he doesn't really do anything better than the next guy.

Taking 7 threes/game and hitting them at a 44% clip is pretty extraordinary. Even Steph Curry isn't shooting that well this year. I know you mentioned it, but it's a pretty impressive feat IMO.

 

[blue9]

Taking 7 threes/game and hitting them at a 44% clip is pretty extraordinary.

I specified that his outside shooting (along with competitiveness) sets him apart. It's the rest of his game that is rather pedestrian.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I specified that his outside shooting (along with competitiveness) sets him apart. It's the rest of his game that is rather pedestrian.

I agree with you, Blue. Unfortunately, I realized recently that I've also been wrong on just about every point guard related opinion I've had in the past eight years, so that probably means that we're both wrong here too.

 

[blue9]

I agree with you, Blue. Unfortunately, I realized recently that I've also been wrong on just about every point guard related opinion I've had in the past eight years, so that probably means that we're both wrong here too.

I hope we are wrong on this some day! But currently we aren't.
Because he possesses that competitive fire I do think he will eventually become much better than he is now. But it's going to be a longer road than his rookie season would have suggested.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Haven't really given it any thought, and haven't really watched other teams except when we play them. I've just been underwhelmed with Lillard this season - he's an average starting PG. I like his outside shooting and competitive fire, but aside from those two aspects he doesn't really do anything better than the next guy.

Here is the list of guards who average 5.6+ Assists with a 19.5+ PER: http://bkref.com/tiny/FA4J5

This is a list designed to put Lillard near the bottom of in assists and PER. But looking at all the stats, something interesting comes up. Among these 11 guards, Lillard is:

1st in 3PT made
2nd in 3PT %
4th in FT made
1st in FT %
5th in Rebounds
3rd in Blocks
3rd in Turnovers (nearly half of Curry's numbers)
4th in Points

He does a couple of things poorly among this group: 2PT shooting, Offensive Rebounding, Steals (I give him a bit of a pass on Assists because he's not the only playmaker on the team). But among this top 1/3 of guards, he's in the top half of them quite a bit. And he's Top 3 in 5 of those stats. That's not really average.

 

[e_blazer]

His 2PT shooting isn't a problem with his jumper, it's getting stuffed or missing when he tries one of his kamikaze drives to the hoop. I have little doubt that he's going to figure that out as time goes on, and when he does, he's going to be unstoppable.

 

[blue9]

Here is the list of guards who average 5.6+ Assists with a 19.5+ PER: http://bkref.com/tiny/FA4J5

This is a list designed to put Lillard near the bottom of in assists and PER. But looking at all the stats, something interesting comes up. Among these 11 guards, Lillard is:

1st in 3PT made
2nd in 3PT %
4th in FT made
1st in FT %
5th in Rebounds
3rd in Blocks
3rd in Turnovers (nearly half of Curry's numbers)
4th in Points

He does a couple of things poorly among this group: 2PT shooting, Offensive Rebounding, Steals (I give him a bit of a pass on Assists because he's not the only playmaker on the team). But among this top 1/3 of guards, he's in the top half of them quite a bit. And he's Top 3 in 5 of those stats. That's not really average.

I appreciate the fact that you're trying to have an informed conversation about this. I'm just not concerned or interested enough to dive deeply into the numbers (yet). I will say that I'm not at all swayed (one way or the other) by BPG for PGs - it's such a minor part of the game, that it largely has no bearing whatsoever. He's a good shooter, so obviously his FT% will be good - neither impressed nor unimpressed with FT% for players at large (only when it dips below 70% do I take notice) - you can't really defend a FT, so FT% is what it is.
If I was interested in diving into the numbers, I'd look at how MPG correlates to his overall numbers. I suspect that his totals are largely tied to the fact [assumption] that he plays more minutes and takes more shots than most starting PGs. Just like LMA - he's taken more shots than anybody in the league, so it should be no surprise that he's averaging a career high in PPG.
But this year I just haven't been overly impressed when I watch him play. As I said he shoots really well from the outside, and I really like his competitiveness, but otherwise he doesn't appear to be anything more than ordinary.

 

[blue9]

... it's getting stuffed or missing when he tries one of his kamikaze drives to the hoop. I have little doubt that he's going to figure that out as time goes on, and when he does, he's going to be unstoppable.

Yup. And the bolded part is why I'm not going to get too bothered to look for stats to back-up my opinion that he's not spectacular. Now, if he's still playing like this in 2 years then I think we'll have a problem.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I appreciate the fact that you're trying to have an informed conversation about this. I'm just not concerned or interested enough to dive deeply into the numbers (yet). I will say that I'm not at all swayed (one way or the other) by BPG for PGs - it's such a minor part of the game, that it largely has no bearing whatsoever. He's a good shooter, so obviously his FT% will be good - neither impressed nor unimpressed with FT% for players at large (only when it dips below 70% do I take notice) - you can't really defend a FT, so FT% is what it is.
If I was interested in diving into the numbers, I'd look at how MPG correlates to his overall numbers. I suspect that his totals are largely tied to the fact [assumption] that he plays more minutes and takes more shots than most starting PGs. Just like LMA - he's taken more shots than anybody in the league, so it should be no surprise that he's averaging a career high in PPG.
But this year I just haven't been overly impressed when I watch him play. As I said he shoots really well from the outside, and I really like his competitiveness, but otherwise he doesn't appear to be anything more than ordinary.

All of those rankings were based on Per36 minutes, because I knew it would be important to you. Your lack of engagement in the materials renders this discussion useless.

I have no further interest in discussing this item with you. Goodbye.

 

[blue9]

All of those rankings were based on Per36 minutes, because I knew it would be important to you.

I have no further interest in discussing this item with you. Goodbye.

I hope you didn't take offense to my response - not intended at all. I wanted to reply to you because you took the time to write a good response. I just don't have the time/interest to back up what my eyes see with stats.

 

[KingSpeed]

I specified that his outside shooting (along with competitiveness) sets him apart. It's the rest of his game that is rather pedestrian.

If something sets him apart, then he's not average.

 

[Draco]

If something sets him apart, then he's not average.

Besides Shaq's inside dominance he was a below average NBA player.