Box of 100 toothpicks lining up to a specific order has 100 different picks X 100 X 99 X 98 ext. okay so it's 10 to the 100th power? It's definitely not 1%.
Still like my chances that a person put it there. That's mathematically more "probable" yes?
I'm going to try and make this quick, because I want to go get a beer and watch the game.
First off, I went back and reread your points #4 and #5 post, and admit that I misread #4 the first time. I thought you said only that some of the toothpicks spelled your name, when in fact you specified that each and every one was in perfect arrangement -- very different. (For what it's worth, your probability calculation is still way off, but you're right that the chances of ONE box landing in that specific arrangement are ridiculously small). The problem with the metaphor as you framed it is this: there are no such "toothpick names" in the natural world. There are patterns to be found, yes. But I've already explained how it is not just a probability but a CERTAINTY to arrive at some form of pattern based on just a few simple rules and elementary building blocks. (And again, you are free to ask "well where did the rules and building blocks come from", but that is an old argument that we already discussed.) Simple patterns in nature arise from known and generally well-understood interactions between bits of matter all the time -- they are hardly equivalent to finding one's name perfectly spelled in toothpicks. Look again at my "spheres in a bowl" example. There's no artist, and yet we see a very clear pattern based only on geometry and gravity.
Now, if we WERE to find a message from God spelled out in the natural world, THAT would be something. I can see it now:
Scientist 1: "Finally! Our Super-powered Femto-meter Confounding Lens Awesome-scope is ready! We can probe deeper into matter than ever before!"
Scientist 2: "Great! Let's turn it on!"
(Scientists turn on scope and fist-bump)
Scientist 1: "Ok, probing atom. Going... DEEPER. Wait. What's this? There's a tiny tag attached to the atom! It says something on it! In English!"
Scientist 2: "Whoa! What does it say?"
Scientist 1: "MADE BY GOD"
Both Scientists: "WHAAAAAAA??"
(Zoom out to God, played by Ashton Kutcher)
God: "Y'all been punk'd!"
This, by the way, is ANOTHER scenario that would make me a theist. And a proud one, too -- that would be the Greatest Practical Joke in the History of the Universe.
But we have found no such tag.