We can draw a similar profile in Portland, where the "What's Wrong With the Blazers?" alarm bells reached DEFCON 4 after Tuesday night's dispiriting home loss to the Heat. As with the Wizards, the Blazers' main problem is that two of their three key players have underperformed. While Greg Oden has emerged as an All-Star-caliber force when fouls don't put him on the bench, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are both falling well short of last season's output.
Roy was a superstar in 2008-09 but his production is way off this season. He's lost nearly three points per 40 minutes compared to last season, has a lower TS% and a higher turnover rate and just an 18.89 PER compared to last year's 24.08.
Aldridge's numbers have also slipped a bit. He is rebounding more but has lost 1.4 points off his 40-minutes average without any uptick in his percentages. As a result, his PER of 16.96 pales next to last year's 19.13.
Ancillary issues also haven't helped. Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla both have declined after unexpectedly strong campaigns a season ago; injuries to Travis Outlaw and Nicolas Batum have robbed Portland of its wing depth and ability to play small; and the team has struggled to incorporate Andre Miller into the rotation.
That said, the intense focus on Miller may be overblown. He's been better than Blake, for one. Plus, the combined production of those two isn't much different from what Blake and Sergio Rodriguez gave the Blazers a season ago. About the only difference Miller's addition has made is that Roy virtually never plays point guard anymore, but that would be the case anyway in light of the multiple injuries on the wings.
Thus, the Blazers rank only 10th in offensive efficiency after finishing second last season. Portland has defended decently, if not great -- the Blazers are seventh in defensive efficiency, thanks in equal parts to Oden's ascension and the fact that they've played Minnesota three times -- but just like the Wizards, this team needs to be a top-five offense to win big.
So far, they haven't been, and that may influence their decisions at the trade deadline. Andre Miller would seem to be the most likely trade asset, but the expiring contracts of Outlaw -- who won't return until late in the season, if at all -- and Blake also could prove juicy for trade partners looking to shave costs. (And if you're reading between the lines of this story: Yes, I do believe Butler would fit well in Portland. But we're still a long, long way away from connecting those two dots.)
Regardless, I can't imagine the Blazers will stand pat with this group if they continue to underperform. While Roy and Aldridge are a big part of the reason, Portland won't be parting with either of them anytime soon, especially after signing both to extensions over the past four months. Instead, they'll likely use their other assets to bring in more weaponry, especially long-range shooters who could give their two stars more offensive breathing room.
We still have more than two months to the trade deadline, and it's very possible that a couple of hot weeks by either of these clubs could turn today's chatter into a distant memory. Nonetheless, these two teams bear close watching in the coming weeks. If things don't change, I suspect each will be among the league's biggest movers and shakers come February.
but in the past he could make the argument about not messing with a good thing, at this point I think it's OK to say he'd be messing with a bad thing.
