Expect No Changes Heading Into Next Season....

[ABM]

..at least, according to Dave from BlazersEdge.

Did anyone listed to this morning's interview with him on The Game's MSP? Barring any trade which "may" materialize, he feels that what we (currently) see, is what we'll get.

Is that the way you understood him?

 

[blue32]

I dont know what to think of this..

On one hand, the team trimmed the fat (sergio, Raef, and scrubs right?)

On the other hand, it seems as though we could have used RLEC, and some other pieces (Trout, Blake, etc) to really improve our roster....

Oh well, As long as B-rex gets his shot at backup PG this season, I'll be happy. I want to see how he'll do w/real talent in the game.

 

[Tince]

That is what I heard too.

I'm not shocked or upset that this is the case, but I know I'm in the minority.

 

[SodaPopinski]

FWIW, and while I respect Dave from BlazersEdge, he really doesn't have any more inside info than any of us. He's purely speculating at this point.

 

[LameR]

That is what I heard too.

I'm not shocked or upset that this is the case, but I know I'm in the minority.

I'm with you. I would have liked to see Blake moved, but I also am excited to see what Bayless can do. My biggest thing is that I still feel like we could be better off without Outlaw, and getting a legit backup PF. Hopefully one of Outlaw, Cunningham, and Graph will step up if we don't sign a vet big man.

 

[illmatic99]

Dave from BlazersEdge has sources?

 

[hasoos]

Been saying that all along. The reality is this is Portland. Until Portland shows it is a legit contender for a title, all we will be used for is leverage to jack up salaries of players going elsewhere. Players have no interest playing here unless the team is contenders and they want a ring. That has been the reality of the history of the franchise. I cannot think of one big name free agent who didn't come in until after the Blazers were contenders. The city has a small market, and a rep for being small in the scheme of things. That is reality.

 

[Furball]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry. If we don't make a big move before October, I really hope we don't do something during the season. It's hard for a team to gel and give it all if they think one of them is going to be traded during the season. Remember when SAR kept thinking he was getting traded? Remember just last season how the whole team was a little edgy right before the trade deadline? If we are going to do anything, just do it before Oct.

 

[OddEnormous]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry.

Only for teams on the verge/contending for the championship though does that matter.

PDX is in the perfect place to make a move at the deadline for the following seasons as they are still building a team. They aren't winning a championship this year. It doesn't matter when they make a trade as it wont be to get over the top this season per se.

I agree it can be a setback mid season before a team regroups and gels again, but at this point that shouldn't be a concern in Portland.

 

[Tince]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry. If we don't make a big move before October, I really hope we don't do something during the season. It's hard for a team to gel and give it all if they think one of them is going to be traded during the season. Remember when SAR kept thinking he was getting traded? Remember just last season how the whole team was a little edgy right before the trade deadline? If we are going to do anything, just do it before Oct.

I agree with you about chemistry. However, if you can get a guy that fits our needs and our window, I'd still make a move at the deadline

Sure, it might ruin chemistry for the year, but are we really going to win a championship this season? If a mid-season trade costs us a couple wins this year, but increases our chances of winning a title down the road, I'm all for it.

 

[Iwatas]

They'll come if it pays.

A big offer to Sessions (assuming Milwaukee declines an S&T) would land him. That might be the silver lining of this summer program - realizing that Bayless is not able to run the offense, at least not this year.

iWatas

 

[Further]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry. If we don't make a big move before October, I really hope we don't do something during the season. It's hard for a team to gel and give it all if they think one of them is going to be traded during the season. Remember when SAR kept thinking he was getting traded? Remember just last season how the whole team was a little edgy right before the trade deadline? If we are going to do anything, just do it before Oct.

I don't agree. If the Blazers don't make a trade prior to the start of the season, they better make one before the trade deadline. Why - Because that is the very last chance the Blazers will have to use their asset of caproom, the last time the Blazers can get a lopsided trade. Sure, any trade has risks, but the odds of improving are much better when you look at what the Blazers would be looking to give up (Money, caproom, talent) for what they would be looking to take back (just better talent).

KP needs to keep looking around and he will find a good trade or two. It just does not make sense to completely let our trade assets melt away. With the Hedo and Milsap attempts, it shows that at least KP and crew are trying to use their assets. Things may not have worked out so far, but I see zero reason to believe that they will all of the sudden stop attempts to use their assets to improve their team.

 

[ABM]

They'll come if it pays.

A big offer to Sessions (assuming Milwaukee declines an S&T) would land him. That might be the silver lining of this summer program - realizing that Bayless is not able to run the offense, at least not this year.

iWatas

Dave said KP has repeatedly stated that any player who is acquired needs to be a "perfect fit." When Gavin asked Dave about why KP has gone after Sessions, Dave indicated that "for whatever reason, Sessions isn't a 'perfect fit'....whether it's de to specific skill(s) fit, money, or whatever...."

 

[Draco]

Been saying that all along. The reality is this is Portland. Until Portland shows it is a legit contender for a title, all we will be used for is leverage to jack up salaries of players going elsewhere. Players have no interest playing here unless the team is contenders and they want a ring. That has been the reality of the history of the franchise. I cannot think of one big name free agent who didn't come in until after the Blazers were contenders. The city has a small market, and a rep for being small in the scheme of things. That is reality.

Brian Grant signed as a free agent. Kenny Anderson was a good starting PG addition. Jim Jackson signing back in 1999 forming the best SG tandem in the league, allowing us to trade the duo for Steve Smith. Detlef signed as a cheap free agent in 2000, he had very similar stats to Hedo but with a higher PER of over 18. His role was almost eliminating by the Pippen trade, otherwise he would have been our starting SF. Greg Anthony was an outstanding value pickup. Derek Anderson chose Portland when the Spurs were offering similar money to resign. At the time he was the 3rd best player after Duncan/Robinson.

Those are some of the better players that typically move as free agents. It's extremely rare to see stars moving to new teams. For a number of years Trader Bob was able to bring in top free agent targets and while Portland was a solid playoff team they weren't a dominant title favorite. 1999-00 is the only year we had more wins (59) than last seasons 54.

 

[hasoos]

They'll come if it pays.

A big offer to Sessions (assuming Milwaukee declines an S&T) would land him. That might be the silver lining of this summer program - realizing that Bayless is not able to run the offense, at least not this year.

iWatas

Well the whole problem with your premise is that Bayless is running the offense. He only would at times. Brandon Roy runs the offense. Sometimes Rudy will run the offense. Nate has said so many times, that it is important that they don't try to turn Bayless into what he isn't. He knows Bayless is a scorer. That is why they got him, so when Roy is playing point, Bayless can be a guy that can get a bucket in a hurry playing off the ball, or with only a few seconds off the clock. He can also penetrate and break down the D, and Bayless has shown he can run the pick and roll. He will actually be more effective than Blake in the pick and roll because Blake is not a threat to score at the rim.

Secondly are you the type that would have given up on Chauncey Billups before he became a good player? How about GP, he only took 4 years to become really good. Steve Nash was a late bloomer. Point guards take a long time to find their way a lot of the time. The guy has only played limited minutes in one season.

 

[ABM]

Dave said,

It feels like the money move is simply to wait, head into the first couple months of the season, and then look at see which teams are struggling. You might find a faux-contender willing to make a deal when it becomes apparent that the season-long marathon is becoming a treadmill for them.

When you think about it there are at least six potential hot spots for making deals or acquiring new players. The first is draft week. The second is the beginning of the free agent period. The third is the time right after the moratorium lifts when the free agent dust has settled and teams are looking to improve by other means. The fourth is right around training camp. The fifth is a couple months into the season. The sixth is the trade deadline. The Blazers have only passed half of those hurdles. We and they both thought there'd be bigger news by this point but that doesn't mean we're in desperation mode yet. All that's happened is that the first six weeks of the process--comprising three of those six points--have yielded no acceptable options. The remaining seven months before February might tell a different story.

 

[LittleAlex]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry. If we don't make a big move before October, I really hope we don't do something during the season. It's hard for a team to gel and give it all if they think one of them is going to be traded during the season. Remember when SAR kept thinking he was getting traded? Remember just last season how the whole team was a little edgy right before the trade deadline? If we are going to do anything, just do it before Oct.

The 2008 Celtics team disagrees with you.

 

[LittleAlex]

Dave said KP has repeatedly stated that any player who is acquired needs to be a "perfect fit." When Gavin asked Dave about why KP has gone after Sessions, Dave indicated that "for whatever reason, Sessions isn't a 'perfect fit'....whether it's de to specific skill(s) fit, money, or whatever...."

Perfect Fit = No moves.

There isn't any such thing as a "perfect" fit. Even LeBron James wouldn't be a perfect fit, since some guys minutes would be jerked around.

Why KP can't just come out and say "We aren't making any moves, so stop waiting for one." is beyond me.

 

[hasoos]

Brian Grant signed as a free agent. Kenny Anderson was a good starting PG addition. Jim Jackson signing back in 1999 forming the best SG tandem in the league, allowing us to trade the duo for Steve Smith. Detlef signed as a cheap free agent in 2000, he had very similar stats to Hedo but with a higher PER of over 18. His role was almost eliminating by the Pippen trade, otherwise he would have been our starting SF. Greg Anthony was an outstanding value pickup. Derek Anderson chose Portland when the Spurs were offering similar money to resign. At the time he was the 3rd best player after Duncan/Robinson.

Those are some of the better players that typically move as free agents. It's extremely rare to see stars moving to new teams. For a number of years Trader Bob was able to bring in top free agent targets and while Portland was a solid playoff team they weren't a dominant title favorite. 1999-00 is the only year we had more wins (59) than last seasons 54.

Dude look at what you just said. Briant Grant wasn't a high end free agent. Solid, but not a high end. Kenny Anderson was no where near high end. He was a pretty good player, but he was sliding fast, and a lot of teams knew it. Then you go on to talk about Detlef Schrempf, who signed when Portland was a contender. Which is what I said did I not? The good free agents will only come here when Portland is a contender. Detlef Schrempf came here when we had a contender level team. It didn't work out, but they were considered contenders that year. Then you go on to talk about Derek Anderson. Derek Anderson was never an elite player, and was never near being an elite player. In fact, IMO Derek Anderson sucked balls. And No you are wrong he was not the 3rd best player behind Duncan and Robinson, Sean Elliot was, who was a much better player. DA was a role player.

 

[Further]

There are only a small handful of teams in the league that can attract high level FA when their team is not a) a contender, or b) offering lots of money. Portland is not unique that it needs to offer good contracts or be a winner to bet good talent to come, that is the way NBA is constructed.

Think of it from a players perspective, if you were going to sign a contract, wouldn't you demand to either get the most money or get the best chance to win?

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I find it very hard to believe that there will be no more moves.

The list of apparently available players that fit some or all of our needs, while also being upgrades of what we currently have, are plenty.

Players greater than Outlaw -> Williams, Prince, Wallace, and Lee
Players greater than Blake -> Hinrich, Ford, Sessions, Nate Robinson, Miller, and Nash
Players greater than Bayless -> Felton

I'd be shocked and actually disappointed if we didn't continue to pursue any of these players. It would be irresponsible of Portland not to, which is why, I'm certain they will.

 

[STOMP]

Mid Season trades rarely put teams over the top, and in many cases destroys team chemistry. If we don't make a big move before October, I really hope we don't do something during the season. It's hard for a team to gel and give it all if they think one of them is going to be traded during the season. Remember when SAR kept thinking he was getting traded? Remember just last season how the whole team was a little edgy right before the trade deadline? If we are going to do anything, just do it before Oct.

the 2004 Detroit Pistons added Sheed in Feb. and did pretty well

STOMP

 

[Furball]

The 2008 Celtics team disagrees with you.

Their core was brought in before the season. KG, Ray, Posey, Rondo, Pierce, Perkins, were all there to start the season.

 

[oldmangrouch]

That is what I heard too.

I'm not shocked or upset that this is the case, but I know I'm in the minority.

Yes.

I will give KP credit - he has ground me down to the point I don't care enough to argue about it anymore.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Super productive summer.

Awesome.

Not trading RLEC was such a good idea. I see what KP saw at last years deadline. Nice.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Dave said KP has repeatedly stated that any player who is acquired needs to be a "perfect fit." When Gavin asked Dave about why KP has gone after Sessions, Dave indicated that "for whatever reason, Sessions isn't a 'perfect fit'....whether it's de to specific skill(s) fit, money, or whatever...."

By definition, there is no such thing as a "perfect fit." By setting that as the standard, you have a built in excuse to do nothing. Brilliant.

 

[Ed O]

Dave said KP has repeatedly stated that any player who is acquired needs to be a "perfect fit." When Gavin asked Dave about why KP has gone after Sessions, Dave indicated that "for whatever reason, Sessions isn't a 'perfect fit'....whether it's de to specific skill(s) fit, money, or whatever...."

No offense to you, ABM, but why are we using Dave as a source to quote KP? Did he interview him? Or is he reading the same stuff we are and putting his conclusory spin on it?

Ed O.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

By definition, there is no such thing as a "perfect fit." By setting that as the standard, you have a built in excuse to do nothing. Brilliant.

Doing something just to do something is how teams get Rod Strickland (the second time around). Sometimes doing nothing is better. And not SPAMing is probably what PA really wants in "these troubled times".

I'm in the minority. I'll give it another year.

 

[Iwatas]

Secondly are you the type that would have given up on Chauncey Billups before he became a good player? How about GP, he only took 4 years to become really good. Steve Nash was a late bloomer. Point guards take a long time to find their way a lot of the time. The guy has only played limited minutes in one season.

Not so. With very few exceptions, point guards assists/minute for the 1st or second year is very close to their career average. As I have posted many times, an analysis of point guards in the past have shown that while their defense, shooting, turnovers, etc. all improve over time, assists/minute is not one of those things. Either a player can make plays by the time they are in the NBA, or he cannot. With VERY few exceptions, PLAYERS DO NOT LEARN TO PLAY POINT GUARD IN THE NBA.

Steve Nash is the exception - and even he managed 0.2 assists/minute as a rookie, better than many PGs their best years.

Chauncey Billups is no exception at all. He was an OK (not great) passer as a rookie, with 0.17 assists/minute. That is his career average, too.

Gary Payton? 0.24 assists per minute as a rookie. That was his BEST year ever on this stat. GP may have been a late bloomer, but NOT as a playmaker.

Ramon Sessions? They say this year was a "break out" year. 0.28 assists/minute his rookie year - better than this year. Jarret Jack? A near-constant 0.14 assists/minute rookie year and for the subsequent years he did not improve.

Bayless was 0.12 last year. Blake was 0.15 his rookie year, and 0.16 last year. Given the highly dominant trend, the odds are *superb* that Bayless will never be as good as Steve Blake at making plays. If this does not terrify you, then it should.

The ONLY thing that makes me think that Bayless could possibly be the exception is that he is very young. It is possible (though unlikely) that when he hits 21 or 22, something else in his brain switches on. But I doubt it. Even Telfair as a 19 year old rookie had career-high assists/minute (0.17).

Heck, even Brandon, "two-guard" Roy, who hogs the ball when it matters (for good reasons) had almost as many assists/minute as a rookie, than did Bayless last year.

PLEASE prove me wrong. Find me a few examples of point guards with Bayless-like rookie numbers who became at least average NBA points.

Otherwise, give this "it is hard to learn to be a point guard" stuff a rest. Either you can make the play or you can't. Bayless can't. Portland needs a point guard.

iWatas

 

[BlazerCaravan]

...this stat may serve to vindicate MARIS and/or undermine your other stats, but... Sergio's ast/min stats:

2006 - 0.253
2007 - 0.197
2008 - 0.233