Expectations for Matthews this year

[mook]

I ran some player comparisons of different three point gunners through their second year, focusing on what are now probably considered late-starters (between 22-26 by the second year). Bruce Bowen, Ray Allen, Redd, Hinrich, Steve Kerr. These are cumulative, including first and second season.

Of the 6 guys, Matthews ranked:

3pt%: 3rd
3pt attempts: 3rd
Minutes played: 3rd
Points per 36 minutes: 3rd (ahead of Bowen and Kerr, tied with Hinrich)
PER: 3rd (ahead of Bowen/Hinrich/Kerr)

I wasn't trying to cherry pick data here. He just consistently appears in third place on the list. The PER's of none of these guys save for Redd (19.6) are all that remarkable--2nd best was Ray Allen at 15.5.

(FWIW, here are the other guys in their third seasons. The thing that stands out the most to me is that every one of these guys saw a 8-18% rise in their PER in that third year. Not astronomical, but substantial.)

I think Matthews is a better defender than any of these guys except for Bowen and possibly Hinrich. I've always thought of him over the last year as a Doug Christie-type, but more aggressive shooting (and worse passing). But that may be selling him a little short.

With a more featured role in our offense and more defined minutes in the rotation (ie, not wondering if Roy is going to take his job at any minute) things look good for him. He was a 17ppg/.420 three point shooter as a starter last year. That's more scoring than Christie ever had. If he takes an 8-18% leap in PER this season, he's going to rise from "decent role player" into maybe the third best player on this team.

I've seen his name chucked in with trade ideas as though he's just another Babbit or Armon Johnson. It kind of surprises me how quickly guys want to trade him. His passing stinks and his handle isn't great, but that stuff is a little overstated on this board. If you disagree, just look at Bruce Bowen's numbers if you want to see a true one-dimension-offense player. Sure, he doesn't have a lightening-fast release and he was ho-hum in the playoffs, but remember--it was his second season.

This guy has been underrated and overlooked in the draft. And really by two franchises (Utah in letting him go, and Portland in benching him early in the season over a crippled Roy). Count me out on that.

With Roy out, a healthy ankle, Aldridge and Gerald creating all kinds of problems underneath, and Felton spacing the floor better, I'm looking for Nate to give Wes the green light to fire at will this year. And I'm looking for an 18ppg year that firmly establishes him as a guy who can be overlooked no more.

 

[Pinwheel1]

He has shown signs of having a mid range jumper. But my hope is he worked hard on it over the off season. We know he is has the three point set shot down, but when players are rushing out at him, it would be nice if he could step in and nail the 15-18 footer jumper. Same for Batum. I think they both have the potential to do so, but both could be a little better.

Maybe a little better at the floater in the lane too. He gets to the basket pretty well, but the times he pulls up short he has no "money shot".

 

[SheedSoNasty]

Amen! When he's on, he can't miss. I'd like to see him be a little more consistent and less streaky. Either way, I'm glad that he will be starting instead of Roy and I agree with the 18 points per game.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Matthews will struggle mightily this year. I think he and his coach will have him do too much on the floor.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Matthews will struggle mightily this year. I think he and his coach will have him do too much on the floor.

Why this year over last? Last year when he played well while Roy was out, he didn't have Wallace or Felton to play with. What is it about this year that will change? Especially if Batum steps up.

 

[Carlito]

Too many ifs. But I also expect a Wes regression. Hopefully not though.

 

[illmatic99]

[video=youtube;75j-EyyMXog]

Dude is soo streaky. But he's a hard worker and can expand his game. People often don't realize that he will only be entering his third season this year.

 

[THE HCP]

First off, nice research! Wes amazed me last year honestly. I know he was kinda forced into that roll. But if LA is getting doubled every touch, Wes should be as wide open as he was last season. He and Nic need to connect from downtown for us to succeed this year!

 

[Mediocre Man]

Why this year over last? Last year when he played well while Roy was out, he didn't have Wallace or Felton to play with. What is it about this year that will change? Especially if Batum steps up.

Like a lot of players in all sports, once teams have a year to scout you it makes a difference. Matthews was ok in Utah, but blew up in Portland. Teams will more than likely take LA and Matthews out of the offense and make Wallace beat them. IMO Wes will struggle with this because he has never dealt with it before.

 

[Carlito]

If Felton Wes and nic have a solid 3 pt percentage at seasons end we will make 8th seed

 

[3RA1N1AC]

he again will be one of the top volume 3pt shooters in the game

 

[Pinwheel1]

Like a lot of players in all sports, once teams have a year to scout you it makes a difference. Matthews was ok in Utah, but blew up in Portland. Teams will more than likely take LA and Matthews out of the offense and make Wallace beat them. IMO Wes will struggle with this because he has never dealt with it before.

I guess I agree to an extent because in another post I said he needs to improve his mid range jumper. (and floater)

I like Wes but is no "go to guy". He certainly can not create his own shot like BRoy could. Same problem Rudy had. But as long as Wes plays within himself and keeps working hard to get open then he will not take a step backwards. His success comes from his relentless hustle. They can scout him all they want, but they can't stop that if he is healthy.

 

[magnifier661]

If Felton Wes and nic have a solid 3 pt percentage at seasons end we will make 8th seed

I disagree. If they have solid 3 point % then we will be sitting pretty high. All of those layers are very streaky. If they become consistent than look fucking out. Lma will have a field day down low.

 

[mook]

he again will be one of the top volume 3pt shooters in the game

Actually, he was 7th in three pointers made, but tied for 12th in attempts. Every single player above him in attempts had a sub-.400 percentage on threes (Matthews shot .407).

Just from that it seems like he should be letting them fly more.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Wouldn't you kind of expect Matthews to be third out of that group? There's two good players (Allen and pre-injury Redd) and a bunch of poor-to-mediocre players.

 

[MickZagger]

Like a lot of players in all sports, once teams have a year to scout you it makes a difference. Matthews was ok in Utah, but blew up in Portland. Teams will more than likely take LA and Matthews out of the offense and make Wallace beat them. IMO Wes will struggle with this because he has never dealt with it before.

Wes was okay I kinda guess in Utah. He only started all 82 games on a playoff team as an undrafted free agent for a coach that hates rookies.... That year doesn't count, scouts forgot about that year. Atleast thats what your scout friend tells you, right?

 

[mook]

I like Wes but is no "go to guy". He certainly can not create his own shot like BRoy could. Same problem Rudy had.

Hopefully Wes and Nate work harder at getting him coming off screens more. I'd like to see him used more like Rudy was, except that Rudy tended to miss a lot after getting open. He's not a guy who can break ankles off the dribble, but he is a high-energy guy who can have fun running guys around. I wonder if that aspect wasn't really focused on last year because of the bad ankle.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Actually, he was 7th in three pointers made, but tied for 12th in attempts. Every single player above him in attempts had a sub-.400 percentage on threes (Matthews shot .407).

Just from that it seems like he should be letting them fly more.

you are misunderstanding, i agree 100%.

out of the lot of volume 3pt shooters, he is one of the best, i went over this extensively in my "wes mathews is an amazing 3pt shooter" thread

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think of Wes as like our Mario Elie.

 

[MickZagger]

I think of Wes as like our Mario Elie.

Elie couldnt play defense. One of Wes' best attributes is his D.

 

[mook]

Wouldn't you kind of expect Matthews to be third out of that group? There's two good players (Allen and pre-injury Redd) and a bunch of poor-to-mediocre players.

I don't consider any of them poor. Hinrich and Redd are the only ones who haven't played a significant role on a championship team, and Redd ain't chopped liver. Also, in some cases (3pt%, minutes played) the top two above him weren't the future stars.

I was trying to bracket him between the low end and high end of expectations, though, so yeah I suppose maybe it's not shocking he came out 3rd a lot. But 3rd every time was a little unexpected.

I think it points to him as having a sub-All Star career, but a career with him being significantly better than archetypical role players like Kerr and Bowen.

 

[magnifier661]

What redd didn't have was a good team. It's much easier to get yours when u are the only one that can score.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Wes was okay I kinda guess in Utah. He only started all 82 games on a playoff team as an undrafted free agent for a coach that hates rookies.... That year doesn't count, scouts forgot about that year. Atleast thats what your scout friend tells you, right?

9.4/2.3/1.5 Those numbers scream "ok"

 

[MickZagger]

9.4/2.3/1.5 Those numbers scream "ok"

Its all relative. He was a rookie playing 24 minutes a game. That year doesn't count though, scouts weren't paying attention.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Wes is what he is...a nice complimentary player. As long as Nate remembers that and doesn't expect him to be a go-to guy who can create his own shots, he will be fine.

 

[Ed O]

9.4/2.3/1.5 Those numbers scream "ok"

And a 12.3 PER.

He had an "OK" rookie season in absolute terms... much better than any non-drafted rookie could be expected to deliver, of course.

Ed O.

 

[Ed O]

Its all relative. He was a rookie playing 24 minutes a game. That year doesn't count though, scouts weren't paying attention.

If he had better than an OK rookie season, why did he only play 24 mpg?

You seem to be talking out both sides of your mouth in a lame effort to take shots at MM.

Ed O.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I like Wesley and I think he's capable of being a slightly above average starter as long as his role is limited to what he does best, which is mostly spotting up for threes and not asking him to create off the dribble or try to drive into the teeth of a defense, because his game is mostly below the rim and his handle is pretty shaky.

As for his defense I'd describe him as more "game" than "lockdown." He's certainly willing and puts forth effort at that end (half the battle) but he gives up a lot of length and his on-court/off-court numbers aren't exactly stellar -- he "looks" better on defense than the actual effect he probably has on D.

 

[MickZagger]

If he had better than an OK rookie season, why did he only play 24 mpg?

You seem to be talking out both sides of your mouth in a lame effort to take shots at MM.

Ed O.

Matthews was Sloan's defensive 2 guard. All he really was on offense was a corner 3. Thus, he split minutes with CJ Miles who was more developed offensively. Not all hard to figure out really. PER doesn't take into account defense.

Speaking of lame attempts to take shots, thats MM's schtick on this board. It gets old.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Matthews was Sloan's defensive 2 guard. All he really was on offense was a corner 3. Thus, he split minutes with CJ Miles who was more developed offensively. Not all hard to figure out really. PER doesn't take into account defense.

Speaking of lame attempts to take shots, thats MM's schtick on this board. It gets old.

Maybe the difference is that mine are never personal? And there was no shtick at all speaking of Matthews. He had an ok rookie season. That's what I said. You don't agree so you think it is taking shots? Or is it if you aren't a 100% pro Blazers, please let them blow smoke up you ass fan you are taking shots?